Outskirts of Red Sox Nation

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Get me a knuckleballer! Stat!

I just finished a reading a novel in which the protagonist would sort through potential girlfriends by quizzing them on their knowledge of losing vice-presidential candidates. This made some sense to me. Of course, the protagonist was also an insane serial killer, so that's about right, too. It's all about impulse control, really.

The quiz that I would more likely use would be this: What does the name Charlie Zink mean to you? Googling his name is totally cheating. This is a test not only of your status as a Red Sox fan, but also a test of your personal internet integrity. Choose wisely.

Time's up. Charlie is a Red Sox pitching prospect, currently (I just noticed), the #1 pitcher in the Pawtucket rotation. He was drafted as a hard-throwing righty out of, yes, the Savannah College of Art and Design. They actually have a good baseball program there- I think Luis Tiant coached for them. I'm not making that up. The kicker? He wasn't making it with his 90-92 mph fastball, so the Sox switched him to the knuckleball. He's been making his way through the Sox minors as a knuckleball prospect.

We're now two years past the time when Charlie (I can't seem to call him Zink) was profiled, along with Tim Wakefield, in an excellent New Yorker article. He now finds himself, at age 26, I believe, on the doorstep of the majors. If I had my druthers, he would be starting this Saturday at Fenway against the Blue Jays. The situation that has created this possibility just gets worse and worse.

The Sox lost yesterday afternoon to the A's by a score of 7-2, getting swept in their second consecutive series. They stumble home after a 2-7 road trip and are about 35 games out of both the division and the wild card. Curt Schilling did get his 3,000th strikeout, but that was pretty much the only good thing that happened yesterday.

The pitching lineups for this weekend go like this: tonight, Roy Halliday vs. David Wells....except wait, he's probably going to get traded to the Padres. In anticipation of this, Lenny DiNardo was pulled from his start at Pawtucket yesterday. He'll probably start tonight. Tomorrow is Kyle Snyder vs. Ted Lilly (the current Red Sox killer and perhaps future Red Sox pitcher). Saturday is Gustavo Chacin vs....TBA. TBA? Is that what the Red Sox season has come to? Yes it has. And it gets worse. The pitcher that would have pitched in that spot is Jon Lester. Mr. Lester, who was initially scratched because of a bad back, is now undergoing tests in Boston for, among other things, cancer. Apparently he was diagnosed with enlarged lymph nodes, and they're checking all the possibilities. I know that this season's long depressing slide began before all of this medical mess, but, geez. This is crazy. I hope everything turns out ok, medically, but this is just crazy.

So all of this means the Charlie Zink may get a little taste of the big leagues this September. I hope that he does. Not only because I love knuckleballers, but it would be nice to see if he can hack it. Do I think he can? Well, honestly, I'm not sure. He has a decent 9-4 record this year, with an ERA of about 4.10. Looking a bit deeper, though, he's given up 65 walks in only 109 innings this year. He's struck out 61 and has a WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched- the lower the better) of 1.55. That's not totally awful, but it's not the greatest thing in the world.

How will his minor league stats translate to the majors? Sometimes it's hard to project pitchers, even those who dominate the minors. With a knuckleballer, it's gotta be different. Aside from a bit more plate discipline, I think if a knuckler will get out minor leaguers, it will get out major leaguers. For comparison, Tim Wakefield's career WHIP is about 1.40. He gives up about 3.5 walks per 9 innings, and strikes out about 6.3. Thus far Charlie Zink has walked 5.04 batters per nine innings and struck out 5.44. That's not Wakefield yet. But if he can harness the butterfly just a bit, turning one of those walks per nine into a strikeout, we may have someone for Timmy to hand his #49 jersey to in a year or so. Not that I'm keen to see Wakefield disappear- hell, knuckleballers can pitch into their late 40's- but it would be nice to see that tradition kept alive in Boston.

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Is this the request line? I'd like to be taller, please.

I tried. I swear I tried. I was up at 10:05 p.m. last night and I flipped on the game. I watched the first couple of innings. By the end of the second inning, though, it was too hard. It looked like a game, like a team I didn't recognize and had no emotional stake in- other than it making me really sad. Another loss to Oakland, 2-1 this time, and the second-string Red Sox have only mustered thirteen hits in the last two games, scoring only one run. David Ortiz is spending the day at Mass General getting cardiac tests. Manny and Wily Mo were both sent back to Boston early to rest. Still no sniff of returns from Varitek, Trot, or Wakefield. On the positive side- the only one at this point- is that Josh Beckett pitched his second very solid game in a row. Seven innings, five hits, two runs. That's more than a quality start. That's one to grow on.

I think even the most die-hard Red Sox fans (please see "Sons of Sam Horn" for more information) have begun to look to the future, trying to salvage whatever is possible from the terrible wreckage of this second-half. Going out on that limb myself and assuming that there's not that much left for the TEAM to play for this season, allow me to offer a list of things I'd still like to see out of the rest of the season:

-51 Home Runs for David Ortiz. Assuming he can be cleared to play by the beginning of September, he'll have a month to hit four home runs. Thus far this season, that's been about 10-days worth. Establishing Big Papi as the single-season Red Sox record holder will cap off what has been a truly remarkable season, and a truly remarkable four seasons for Papi. It will also make it harder for MVP voters to dismiss him because of the Sox second-half nosedive. Derek Jeter for MVP? Don't get me started.

-3000 Strikeouts and 17 wins for Curt Schilling. I don't think that Schilling is a hall-of-famer. He's been a hell of a pitcher for nearly twenty years, but I think he's not going to have the wins, the Cy Youngs, or the total dominance that will enshrine him. He pitches tonight and will get to 3000 strikeouts, becoming only the 14th or 15th pitcher to get there. That's a nice club.

-35 to 40 Saves for Papelbon and an ERA under 1.00. Similarly to Papi, the fortunes of the Sox may doom Papelbon's chances for individual awards. He won't get the Cy Young, despite a season as a closer that has been in the same league as Eric Gagne's or Dennis Eckersley's award-winning seasons. I think Rookie of the Year is a 50-50 shot at this point. If he can maintain this dominance, he is FAR more valuable to the Sox than he would be an average to slightly-above average starter. The leverage of innings he gives the Sox this season has been unreal.

-More At-Bats for Dustin Pedroia, Carlos Pena, Eric Hinske, and Wily Mo Pena. With the futures of Trot Nixon, Mark Loretta, and Alex Gonzalez in the air, the Sox need more data before they make these decisions. Pedroia needs some more time with big-league pitching. He's going to start next year, but they need to decide about which side of the 2nd base bag that will be (I vote 2B). If Carlos and Wily Mo, the Pena Posse, can show some pop and some plate discipline, you could be seeing your right corners right there. Hinske needs to make the team as a utility guy/bench bat. This is his time.

-A .400 OBP for Youkilis. The (apparently non-greek) Greek God of Walks has got to get back up to .400. He's just gotta.

-17 wins for Beckett and an ERA under 5.00. There's a lot riding on this guy. We need him to finish strong, if only to stop us from going completely into the deep end during the off-season. Getting a couple more strong starts will be the difference between a solid season and a worrisome one.

-Wakefield and Varitek back healthy and productive. We need these guys to finish the season on the active roster and in the starting rotation and lineup. They're major parts of the puzzle for next year. It would be good to know they're ready.

-David Wells traded. I think that Wells is probably our most consistent starter at this point, but because of that, and because he's done with us after this season, he's got value right now. The Dodgers and the Padres, among others, could use a quality arm for their playoff runs. With the waiver-trade deadline fast approaching, the Sox could really cash in on some desperation from these teams with a quality prospect or two. Thanks for the help, Jumbo, but happy trails.

-Some counseling for Terry Francona. The guy's close to tears at every press conference and spitting up blood in the dugout. Didn't Bob Tewksbury just get his degree in sports psychology? Can we give him a call?

I have some post-season wishes also, but this is my list for the rest of the year. Feel free to add your own. I'm supposed to be encouraging comments. What is there left to cheer for this year?

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Heart of the Nation

I turned on the TV this morning to check the Red Sox score. Hazel Mae was speaking in reverent tones about baseball’s universal appreciation of David Ortiz. They cut to Terry Francona, post-game, looking completely drained and defeated. They interspersed clips of Reggie Lewis falling to the floor in a Celtics game and Tedy Bruschi talking about leaving the Patriots. Oh no. No. Oh my lord.

I held it together long enough to learn that Big Papi had been scratched from last night’s lineup at the last minute- not for the stomach flu as had been previously speculated- but because his heart was racing the way it had during the Yankee series when he went into the hospital for tests. Ultimately, Papi flew back home last night for more testing, therefore missing the entirety of the Oakland series, at least. Fair warning: I will personally kick the head of the first Boston sportswriter that suggests this might be the ghost of Jimmy Foxx trying to keep Ortiz from breaking his single-season team homer record.

When last night’s game started, I was both resigned and depressed. I hate excuses for poor performance- I’d rather just be angry and accepting, in rapid succession. But that Red Sox team yesterday was unrecognizable. If you were the opposition, and you got to pick five hitters that you felt could do the most damage- the five hitters you least wanted to face, you’d probably pick these guys: Manny, Papi, Trot Nixon, Jason Varitek, and Wily Mo Pena. You’d live with facing a lineup where your biggest threats were Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell. Well, Oakland got their wish last night. All five of those guys were out with one sort of ailment or another. Our DH last night was Mark Loretta and his gimpy quad. Youkilis played right field. Our catcher, first baseman, left fielder, and second baseman were all playing somewhere else as of a month ago.

The icing on the cake for Oakland’s dream scenario was Kason Gabbard. He didn’t fall apart, despite the really lousy field conditions and particularly mound conditions (Thanks, Al Davis!) but the ultimate result, a 9-0 victory over the Sox, was just about predestined. I’m a little sad about that, and I feel really bad for Terry Francona. This second half has been really hard to take. It’s been disappointing, frustrating, and sad.

But please, not this. Jerry Seinfeld famously pointed out that sports fans are really just “cheering for laundry” and whoever happens to be in your team’s uniform at any given time. This is different. Big Papi is different.

There’s a guy out here in Northeast Connecticut who drives around in a pickup truck with the license plate “TED 406” and a custom stencil job on the door that says “Ted Williams IS Baseball.” I thought he was a crackpot, and actually, I’m probably right. But his tense is wrong. Ted Williams WAS baseball. Now, it’s David Ortiz.

There is nobody who better embodies the joy, excitement, and possibility of this game than Big Papi. There is no one who can bring hope within the context of the game than Papi- the one player you feel gives you a shot at victory every night. To go even farther, there is no player I would ever root for if he put on pinstripes- no player but Papi.

So now, we can all just sit and wait and hope and pray. The season, at least this morning, at least this series, has completely fallen away below our feet. Please let him be ok. Please restore him to health. Restore him to his family. Restore him to his team. Restore him to the nation that needs him- the nation who knows the problem can't possibly be his heart.

Monday, August 28, 2006

Run-prevention on Empty

As I have chronicled earlier this season, west-coast games can be torturous, adding an element of stress and emotional burden to a time of the day that should be better spend recharging one's batteries. As recently as last week, I was awake until the wee hours of the morning, hoping against hope the the Sox could pull out two of three from the Angels. Here we are, a few more games down the road, and I'm discovering that west-coast games have a more positive flip-side.

They facilitate the grieving process.

About ten days ago, prior to the Yankee series, I argued that with 43 games left, the Sox still had a legitimate shot at the postseason. They'd need about 96 wins, which would mean they'd have to go 27-16 in their remaining 43 games. That didn't seem impossible. Sure, it's was wild-eyed optimism, but it was possible. Since then, the Sox have played 11 games, going a deeply impressive 2-9. Five losses to the Yankees, three to the Mariners, and one to the Angels. They've only NOT gotten swept in one of the last three series. In their remaining 32 games, the now have to go 25-7 to get to 96 wins. I'm totally a "look at the bright side" Sox fan, but I think it may be time to throw in that towel.

This is why the Seattle series over the weekend was a bit of a blessing. I didn't have to watch most of it. Because the games started so late, it was much easier for me to avoid them. On Saturday, we were a good hour into "O Brother Where Art Thou" on TBS before we even remembered that the Sox were on. I was emotionally able to make the decision that watching something else, or even (heaven forbid) getting some sleep, was preferable to inflicting more damage on myself by watching to game. I even managed to be busy and away from a radio or television for most of yesterday's awful series ender in Seattle.

Kyle Snyder giving up six runs in five innings yesterday, ensuring the loss, can not be said to be surprising. In fact, that's about what we'd have to expect. It made me think about a larger point, though- one that I think may be significantly at fault for the team's performance this year: Theo and the front office don't put together great pitching. Since 2003, the pitching- particularly in the bullpen, has been made up of low-risk, high-reward guys. Guys who showed flashes of brilliance at one point, but were coming off injuries or were dumped by other teams- cheap guys with big upsides.

2003 brought Alan Embree, Brandon Lyon, Ryan Rupe, Rudy Seanez, Scott Williamson, Scott Sauerbeck, Chad Fox, Bobby Howry, Bruce Chen, Kevin Tolar, Matt White, Todd Jones, Jason Shiell, Robert Person, and of course Byung-Hyun Kim.

2004 found us with Ramiro Mendoza, Lenny DiNardo, Terry Adams, Mark Malaska, Curt Leskanic, Pedro Astacio, Mike Myers, Anastacio Martinez, and Keith Foulke.

2005 produced other notables like Matt Mantei, Jeremi Gonzalez, Chad Bradford, John Halama, Blaine Neal, Chad Harville, Mike Remlinger, Cla Merideth, and Mike Stanton.

This year, we know what we've got. Seanez again, Julian Tavarez, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Craig Breslow, Jason Johnson, Kyle Snyder, Javier Lopez, Kason Gabbard, and Jonathan Papelbon.

I'm not saying these are all failures- of course that 2004 team won it all, and Timlin, Williamson, and particularly Foulke pitched brilliantly in September and October. This year, of course, Papelbon is having one of the five best seasons for a closer EVER, and certainly for a rookie. But overall, I'd have to say that fewer than 1 in 4 of these relief-pitcher decisions have been really good ones. In theory, most of them made some sense- the idea that "these guys may have something left" or "in the right situation, this guy can be really effective." In practice, though, it hasn't been very good.

The front office would do well to take more of a lesson from the Twins, the Angels, the Tigers, or yes, even the Yankees when constructing the bullpen in 2007. The theory of bullpen construction needs only three words: 1) Stockpile; 2) Power; 3) Arms. Being able to run five or six relievers out there, each one capable of striking out at least 8 or 9 guys per 9 innings, guys that can pound the strike zone with 93-98 mph heat- that's a bullpen. I think that the Sox have started to do this- Hansen, Delcarmen, and Papelbon all fit that mold (though the first two guys have to control their stuff better), but they're not enough. The rest of the bullpen needs to be built around them to make this work.

When I get to that point in my grieving for this season that I can assess the free-agent pitchers market, I'll see who might be available for 2007. For right now, though, I'm somewhere between anger and ambivalence. The fact that we haven't fallen further than the 6.5 games behind the Yankees we started this road trip at doesn't help much. I just don't see this ending well.

Friday, August 25, 2006

Thanks for the memories

Of all of the former Red Sox players who were with the Sox during the 2004 championship season, I would argue that the one that carries the most goodwill with him from Red Sox fans is Orlando Cabrera. He was thrust into the position of having to fill Nomar Garciaparra's prolific yet petulant shoes, and he did so tremendously. He played a sterling defensive shortstop, was a joy in the clubhouse, and contributed a few key hits down the stretch. He, I would think, is more beloved than some of the other luminaries from that season (Pedro, Millar, Derek Lowe, Johnny Damon). Maybe Bill Mueller, who hasn't gotten a chance to return to Fenway yet, would get a bigger ovation, but O-Cab is close.

Last night, while most of New England slept, Orlando Cabrera sent some love back to Red Sox Nation. In the seventh inning of a very well-pitched game, Doug Mirabelli came to the plate with the bases loaded and one out. If you were like me, you're thinking "Please strike out, Doug. Don't make contact." But he did, and chopped a grounder to short. Our man Orlando fielded it cleanly, and instead of flipping the ball to Adam Kennedy covering second, he decided to race Alex Cora (coming from first to second) to the bag. Cora was hustling his ass off, as he always does, and not only beat Cabrera to the base, but put in a hell of a slide. Of course Cabrera was still able to throw out Mirabelli by about 20 feet at first, but Lowell snuck in with the Sox second run of the night. This, of course ended up being the winning run. Had Cabrera just flipped the damn ball the 20 feet to Kennedy, it would have been an inning-ending double play. It's not as if Mirabelli's breaking any of these up on his own. I'm guessing this has something to do with his Mendoza-licious batting average. It's to the point that he could line a pitch into shallow right and still get thrown out at first. I know the Sox have a long and storied history of fat slow ballplayers, but Mirabelli has got to be right up there.

So a big thank you goes out this morning to Orlando Cabrera, who, together with the home-plate umpire who missed Juan Rivera's slide at home and called him out on Wily Mo's terrific throw, handed a very solid 2-1 victory to the Sox. All in all, it was a very satisfying game. The Sox handed that sour, little-lord-fauntleroy rookie his first loss, Beckett came up huge, with some of his best stuff this year. His curve and his changeup were just exactly what the front office had been waiting for. The cut on his finger they discovered in the seventh inning doesn't sound serious, and fortunately, the Sox were in a good position to take him out right away. Timlin pitched 1 2/3 solid innings, only allowing a run to the one guy he inherited. Papelbon got his second straight 4-out save, and has reclaimed his spot among the rookie of the year candidates.

That is going to be one of the most interesting award votes in recent memory. It's not like last year's MVP race, when it's A-Rod the position player vs. Papi the DH. There are no fewer than four pitchers who deserve serious Rookie of the Year consideration. Last night, they pointed out that Howie Kendrick (I know, who?), the Angels' rookie infielder, was leading all rookie hitters with a .307 batting average. It really underscored how insignificant rookie hitters have been this year in comparison with the pitcher. You've got Papelbon with 34 saves and an ERA around 0.95. You have Fransisco Liriano, still in the top 10 in strikeouts and ERA despite joining the rotation a little late and being out recently with injuries. You have Justin Verlander, a top-10 pitcher in wins and ERA for the still-burning-bright Tigers. Finally, you have Lanky McLongshanks, Jered Weaver who despite picking up his first loss last night, is still 9-1 with an ERA under 2. He'll suffer a bit from joining the big club so late in the season, though.

If the season ended today, I think the voting would go Verlander-Papelbon-Liriano. Rookie of the year has never been as much about team performance as the Cy Young or the MVP have been, but this year I think it will matter a lot. If the Sox make a run and end up making the playoffs, I think that you could hand the award to Papelbon. If Liriano returns and the Twins grab the wild card, he might be your bet. If neither of those things happen, Verlander will probably ride the wave of Tiger-love to the award.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Sail away, sail away, sail away

So there I sat, watching the bottom of the sixth inning of another late-night Red Sox game. Julian Tavarez had come into the game to relieve Jon Lester and the Sox were clinging to a 5-3 lead. Tavarez loaded the bases with one out, and he got a ground ball. The Sox barely missed turning the double play. Tavarez began jumping around angrily. If I was that first-base ump, I would have seriously worried that I was about to get kicked in the head by a nutjob wearing what can only be described as his Skeletor face.

A run came in the back door from third, and the only thing I could think was “here we go again.” Actually, the pain of the last seven days has been so unremitting that the thought only made it as far as “here urghrohhhhh….” But then Tavarez escaped further damage in the inning, and up popped a commercial that I’d never seen on NESN before. It was an ad for a pay-per-view movie. I don’t know if I’m getting the name right, but it was something like “Wild Party Girls: Naked Boat Bash.” I was all set to be intrigued- um, I mean appalled at the nerve of the NESN people to advertise that smut during a family broadcast of the Sox game. What were they thinking? And then I looked over at the clock. 12:28 a.m. No one that’s got their head screwed on right is watching TV right now. Only insomniacs and completely insane Red Sox fans. I think there’s a good deal of overlap in those two demographics.

Why am I up at this hour watching this game? What the hell do I expect to see? As I type this, it’s now the bottom of the 7th, and Timlin just gave up a leadoff double to Orlando Cabrera. The tying run is on with nobody out. This is nuts, what I’m putting myself through just to hopefully see a win out of this team. I can guarantee you that a Naked Boat Bash would be a heck of a lot more satisfactory right now.

Jon Lester only made it through five innings again tonight. The bullpen will need to pick up at least four innings, after picking up four innings last night. Since at least the All-Star break, fully 60% of the starting pitchers have been unable to get their sorry butts into the sixth inning. Combine this with the reliance on a young bullpen of Hansen, Delcarmen and Papelbon, an old guy (Timlin) who started his season too early in the World Baseball Classic, and you have a pitching staff not only hitting the wall in August, but getting driven into the wall at high speed in a vehicle driven by your failing starters.

In sports medicine, there’s a concept called “cascading injuries.” A pitcher injures his toe, which causes him to land on his foot differently, which messes with his knee and hip. As those joints begin to hurt, he changes his arm slot and delivery, and ends up blowing out his shoulder or elbow.

I think that the Red Sox pitching has had a cascading injury. The big toe in this case is Tim Wakefield. I know the reasons for the fate of a baseball team are hazy and difficult to pin down exactly, but my own theory is that Wakefield was the proverbial butterfly that caused the hurricane. Wake, one of my favorite guys, was pitching well. He was the most consistent, reliable starter we had going. Even when he’s not on, he’s a lock for league average pitching, 4.5 ERA or so. More importantly, he was a lock for at least seven innings. He saved the bullpen so many times- this has been blatantly obvious since game three of the 2004 ALCS- the 19-8 slaughter by the Yankees. When Wake pitched, even if the Sox lost, everyone in the bullpen got a night off.

Since he went down, and Jason Varitek with him, the staff has had major problems. The bullpen has struggled big time, and not enough of the starters have given them enough time off. I know that Wake’s not responsible for Lester throwing 20 pitches an inning or Jason Johnson getting lit up or Josh Beckett giving up 475 home runs. But more often than not, the Sox offense has kept us in most games through five or six innings. The bullpen can’t hold on anymore. Come back Wake! It’s just a damn cracked rib. Take one for the team.

Meanwhile, here we are, bottom of the eighth and the Sox are still hanging in there. I’m blogging this live, though I’ll probably have to wait to post it because my dial-up connection is spotty. The bullpen is either going to prove my theory again tonight or I’ll have chosen yet another topic that’s inappropriate the moment I finish typing it.

Don’t look now, but here comes Keith Foulke, striking out the leadoff guy in the 8th. I didn’t realize how much we missed that surly, slow-pitch guy. If he’s healthy and effective (after being the poster child for cascading injuries- starting in his knees and ending deep in his head), this could be a huge boost.

Ok. Game's over- a solid 4-out save for Papelbon. The end of a long losing street. The end of a long night. Time for all good people to go to bed and get some rest for work tomorrow. Why, then, do I feel like staying awake and getting on a boat?

Out of their depth

Let's face the facts- since the All-Star break, this Red Sox team has been pretty bad. Injuries to Wakefield, Varitek, Trot, Gonzalez, and maybe Manny (to say nothing of the minor debilitating bruises to Lowell, Loretta, Youkilis, Coco and Mirabelli) have exposed the Sox. Injuries to Wells, Foulke and Matt Clement has more than stretched the pitching staff, as has the ineffectiveness of Lester, Beckett, and Johnson. The result is that we've gotten a look at the full bloom of the Red Sox depth chart. Upon examination, it looks...pretty shallow.

Last night, in place of our opening-day lineup, we started guys like Wily Mo in left, Gabe Kapler in right, Mirabelli behind the plate, and Dustin Pedroia at short (appropriately enough). Pitching was Kyle Snyder. This isn't what we had envisioned for the season. As excited as I was to see Dustin Pedroia's MLB debut, this wasn't the lineup that the front office hoped would be contending in September and October.

And just as we've discovered a variety of different lineups and rotations, the Sox have continued their recent tradition of finding a variety of ways to lose games. Last night, with everyone else in contention losing (Yanks, Twins, White Sox), we had a chance to pick up some ground. Kyle Snyder actually gave the team a chance to win, going five innings (he was on a pitch count) and giving up three runs. The Sox came back in the seventh to tie it, only to lose it right away in the bottom of the inning- a run on two hits given up by a gentleman with the improbable name of Kason Gabbard. I think that was actually the name I gave a 7th-level dwarf warrior when I played Dungeons and Dragons in eighth grade. It's nice to see he's progressed since then.

So with Alex Gonzalez on the DL and Craig Hansen and Javier Lopez the Pitcher being optioned to Pawtucket, Gabbard, Bryan Corey, and Dustin get called up. And we as fans get to continue riding these painted ponies of depression, letting the spinning wheel of misery turn. The bright spot for me, at least, was that I got to see Dustin Pedroia play his first game. He went 1-3, hit the ball hard, didn't screw anything up at shortstop, and did not look overmatched. He looked like a major leaguer- an oddly short and young one, but a major leaguer nonetheless. He did strand five runners, but I'm sure that was deliberate, just so he could fit in with the rest of the team. If he had brought in those guys when the bases were loaded in the bottom of the second, we might have mistaken him for someone who played for a good team.

Monday, August 21, 2006

Now That's What I Call Value!

Ok. Breathing has slowed almost to David Blaine-In-Water-Bubble levels. Reaction time has been dulled. Blinking, swallowing, any overt motions that might cause detectors to trigger have been virtually eliminated. I am now ready to face the world following this numbingly apocalyptic five-game sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees. Can something be simultaneously numbing AND apocalyptic? Fortunately, I am far too deep in a catatonic depression to feel any urge to justify that word pairing.

For all of our self-righteous complaining that the Yankees are bad for baseball, that they just throw money and more money at their problems without any heed paid to the value they're getting in return, the results have got to speak for themselves. There's nothing like $200 million to plow you past the pretenders. Sure, the Yankees can pride themselves on having home-grown talent like Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera contributing to these wins, but they've also got more players making $10 million or more each year than the Royals have wins this year. The Yankees, at least since the mid-1990's, have decided that they'll acquire talent and lock it up, regardless of the price. They'll not hesitate to pay a premium for that talent. And talent is called talent for a reason. This weekend, the Yankees hit the crap out of the ball. Their bullpen was solid when it needed to be solid, and they just carved the Sox up.

Over the past few years, I've really taken some pride in the fact that Theo and the front office have tried to instill a logic and information-based strategy of assembling a team. They established a budget, did research, and insisted on getting value and not overpaying for players- particularly when it came to long-term contracts. Signing Pedro or Johnny Damon to deals longer than three years was improbable (though I think signing Pedro at all would have been virtually impossible). Overpaying for a middle reliever or a utility infielder wouldn't happen. Why pay six million for two years of Kyle Farnsworth or Tom Gordon when we've got Craig Hansen virtually free for the next four to six years? I appreciated that sense of replacement level value and the fungibility of certain talents.

But then the smartest kid in class steps out onto the playground and gets his books knocked out of his arms and his glasses broken by the class bully. We can take comfort in the knowledge that the Sox may be smarter than the Yankees, but it doesn't matter, because smartness doesn't necessarily win. It would help win more if there were a salary cap and everyone played by the same budgetary rules (ala the Patriots in football) but the Yankees play by their own rules. If they need something for the team to win, they buy it. Need another all-star outfielder? A fourth closer to set up Rivera? No problem? That'll push us over $210 million and more than $75 million over the salary-penalty level? So what?

I'm not saying that the Sox should emulate the Yankees in this way. Despite John Henry being probably wealthier than George Steinbrenner, I don't advocate the Sox spending their way totally out of this mess. I do advocate, however, a bit of a recognition that sometimes, you do have to bit the bullet and overpay for some talent. The very best baseball players, the ones you need in a rockfight against the Yankees, deserve a premium. If we weren't stuck in the Yankees division, we might continue to be the wealthier, smarter Oakland A's. But we can't afford to do that. We need to overpay a bit more, just to stay in this one.

Sunday, August 20, 2006

In case of emergency, break glass

It's nearly one a.m. eastern daylight time, and I'm as wide awake as the day I was born. I'm probably about as lucid as then as well. I was sitting here, waiting for Papelbon to close the Yankees out for what is an absolutely must-win game. He was the only bullpen pitcher not to appear in the 2-day, 3-loss, 39-run slaughter, so he was able to avoid much culpability. But Francona had to use him- he had to break that glass after saving him from those games.

As I type this, I'd still give him that. He did allow two runs to score- the tying runs, but I can't blame him that much. The Sox thrust him into the toughest possible situation- bases loaded, no outs (courtesy of Timlin and Lopez, who should be quite fresh for tomorrow, thanks guys) in the eighth inning. He allowed a sac fly in that inning, and then blew the save in the ninth. He was really bringing it, too, hitting 99 on the radar, and pitching pure adrenaline. I was trying to avoid turning on the computer with its dwindling battery until he closed it out. No dice.

You can't really blame Schilling for this one either- he really only made one mistake in seven strong innings- the HR to Giambi- including the hour-long rain delay. He came up big for the Sox.

And now it's time for the hitting to pick up what was a fairly decent pitching performance- and time for me to start blogging this as it happens- until the game is decided or until my laptop battery dies. Big Papi just hit a double to lead off the bottom of the ninth. All sense of joy or hope has been completely numbed by persistent anxiety. Manny just got the intentional walk- his 5th of this series. It's time to move Wily Mo back to 5th, Youkilis to leadoff, and Coco to 7th. Youkilis isn't scary. He just bunted, a decent bunt, but you've got Papi at 2nd, and he gets thrown out at 3rd. Why didn't Francona run for him? I guess I know the answer to that. This could go another couple of innings.

Wild pitch- Manny to third, Youk to second. Posada isn't a strong defensive catcher anymore. They're going to walk them full to avoid facing Loretta and to put newcomer Hinske on the spot. Come on, new guy. Come on. Make Boston love you.

Would this be a place for a suicide squeeze? Probably not, Francona has never done one as manager of the Sox- despite his ruminations on those Sullivan Tire commercials. Rivera is just throwing the heat past Hinske, and it's 1-2. Now it's 1-3, and Hinske is strolling back to the dugout. Who's next? Hinske hit for Kapler, who replace Wily Mo. Now we've got Mirabelli. Hitting .198 on the season. He hits a chopper back to Rivera, now we go to extra frames. That really sucked. Who will pitch this thing home?

I guess it was Craig Hansen. I still like the kid, I still think he'll be a very good pitcher (heck, just look at Cla Merideth these days). He gives up three runs on two home runs in the top of the 10th. At least Coco didn't hurt himself too badly trying to go after Giambi's homer. This is just shitty. We've lost four in a row to the Yankees, the bullpen is in shambles, we're 5 1/2 games back- and all we've got to show for it is all of this damned broken glass.

Saturday, August 19, 2006

Worst. Pitching. Ever.

Isn't suffering supposed to be good for the soul? Isn't pain and unhappiness supposed to be inspirational of great art? There was a line in a movie, I think it was "The End of the Affair," that talked about how the stories of happy people were all the same, but each sad person had a unique story.

That was during the bombing of London. I'm writing here, sixty years hence, during the bombing of Boston. We're just past the halfway point in this miserable five-game series with the Yankees, and Red Sox pitching has already given up 36 runs. Our hitting has actually been pretty good, and Yankee pitching has been anything but spectacular. Our pitching has been nothing but completely disastrous, and you must give some painfully grudging credit to the Yankee hitting. They've been relentless, 1-9, and they've been merciless.

You can't blame Theo, or Terry Francona, or the pressure of the series. The blame lies with the pitching itself. I lack words to describe its awfulness. I lack the words to describe the awful feeling within me right now as I feel the once-promising season dying and postseason hopes withering.

I look to you, my readers (all 3-5 of you) to help me out. How are we to describe this feeling? How are we to salvage some hope from this weekend? How do we face the rest of the season? Somehow, though, I feel like when you are a Red Sox fan, you are part of a collective story. And in that story, we all suffer in the same way.

Friday, August 18, 2006

The Calm

In just a few hours- eight by my watch- the Sox will begin the definitive series of the season. Four days, five games against the Yankees at Fenway. They are currently 1.5 games back in the AL East, and 2.5 games back in the Wild Card. If all goes perfectly this weekend, they'll have a 3.5 game lead in the East with 38 games to go. If all goes poorly, they'll be 6.5 games out and can pretty much kiss the playoffs goodbye.

These things never really work out that definitively, though. Given how both teams have been playing, and given that this is at Fenway, a 3-2 series split, one way or the other, is more likely. In fact, given the Sox/Yankee parity the last couple of years, it's all but preordained. A series split, especially one in favor of the Sox, leaving then only a half-game out, would be the most torturous. That would guarantee every remaining game on the schedule will give me a heart attack. Based on what we've seen out of the Sox and Yankees lately, you can't say that there are too many pitching matchups that favor the Sox. Wang vs. Jason Johnson? Randy Johnson vs. Beckett? At least Mussina vs. Schilling has the makings of a classic if not a slam-dunk win for the Sox. I'm finding this season, though, these pitching matchups have run in reverse. No predictions from me.

No predictions, but a couple more numbers. The Sox are currently 69-50, having played 119 games of their 162 game schedule. Most statistical stuff that I've read indicates that to win the AL East or have a shot at the Wild Card, 96 wins is just about the minimum you'd need. This means the Sox need another 27 wins out of their remaining 43 games. They'll need to go 27-16 for the rest of the season (a .630 pace) to have a legitimate shot. Technically, they only need to be two games better than the Yankees, but I don't see them collapsing and handing the division over, do you? Is 27-16 doable, at this point in the season, with this team? Of course it is. Is it likely? No, it's not likely, but it's not so incredibly far off. Their current pace has them at about 93 or 94 wins. If you can't steal three games above your current pace at crunch time, you don't belong in the playoffs.

To get these wins, the Sox made a couple of moves yesterday. They acquired former first-base phenom Carlos Pena and former rookie of the year Eric Hinske off the waiver wire. It look like Pena will play in Pawtucket until the rosters expand, and that someone will be shifted to make room for Hinske now. I'm not crazy about Hinske- I always thought his ROY was a result of little competition from a down year for rookies- but I like this move. The Blue Jays eat some of his salary this year and half of his salary next year. This will cost the Sox a very minor prospect (to be named, I believe) and about 3 million for next year. This for a guy who can play a decent third base, first base, or either corner outfield spot, and has just killed right handed pitching over the past couple of years. Since Trot and Nixon went down, the lineup has been very right-handed. Though Manny is Manny and Wily Mo has actually hit righties quite well (1.008 OPS), Lowell, Youk, Mirabelli and Lopez have all struggled, and bringing Gabe Kapler off the bench doesn't inspire fear. It's a good move also to be able to spot start him for either Lowell and Youkilis, who could both use a day or two off down the stretch, without losing much offensively or defensively. Finally, you can hope that this kid will wake up and show some flashes of the power and drive that led the Blue Jays to sign him to that stupid long-term deal in the first place.

As for Pena (Carlos, not Wily Mo), this is a good flyer, I think. He's a very good defensive first baseman (shades of Mientkiewicz or Olerud) that could be used as a late-inning replacement and has power. He's just not lived up to his draft-pick/prospect hype. Maybe a return home (he's from the Boston area) will prove inspirational. If not, it's a low cost move.

The one move of the last week that I had been meaning to mention is the recent promotion of Craig Breslow to the big club. I know that I shouldn't be giddy over 2 1/3 innings of sample size, but this bullpen lefty has looked good. In terms of stuff, his fastball is adequate and his curveball was really effective. He looked like he was pitching with a chip on his shoulder the other night when he struck out two of the three Tigers he faced in a mop-up role. Maybe it's the way the last couple of weeks have gone, with the bullpen dragging their butts, but a good live, lefty arm in the bullpen- a fresh young arm, is incredibly refreshing. We saw with Papelbon's performance the other night what a little rest can do for these young guys- he looked like it was the first game of the year. I hope that Breslow is not the one sent down to make room for Hinske. Send Tavarez or Seanez down. Sacrifice Kapler for a couple of weeks. Let's sic this kid on the Yankees and see how he handles Giambi.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

How's that young pitching working out?

I enjoyed that. The Sox should do that more often. That thing where you get some guys on base and then the next guy up hits the ball hard and it hits the wall or it goes over the wall and the guys who were on base run fast and get home and then the guys who operate the scoreboard change the numbers. Then later, we bring in some new pitchers to throw the ball to the other team, and the other team has a really hard time hitting the ball hard against the wall or over the wall. What is that whole thing called? Whatever it is, I think I like it. I'd be interested in seeing the Red Sox doing that sort of thing more often.

That win was really good. Not just because the Sox beat the Tigers 6-4. Not just because Papi hit a three-run shot and Papelbon got a strong save. Not just because Coco woke up a little more and hit a huge bases-clearing double (Lopez WAS safe on that play. Maybe 4999 games was enough for you, Mr. Froemming). Not just because both the Yankees and the White Sox lost, moving us back to a reasonable two games out of the lead. It was also good because it took that Verlander down a peg- 7 walks? Welcome to the bigs, kid. It was good for all of those reasons.

The odd thing about Verlander's performance was that it was so uncharacteristically bad that it changed what I wanted to say about the Tigers. When Dave Dombrowski took over as GM a couple of years ago, he recognized where Detroit was in their success cycle- which was to say, rock bottom. He mapped out a strategy to start winning- drafting lots of young power arms and a couple of good position prospects, mix in a few high-priced free agents, and give it a couple of years. Give it time, and be patient. Do people remember when he threw Jeremy Bonderman and Mike Maroth in there as 20- or 21-year olds and had them pitch the full year? Maroth lost 20 games, and Bonderman looked lost. It was brutal.

Fast forward two and a half years, and Dombrowski looks brutal like a fox. That young pitching staff, plus a good first half from Kenny Rogers and thus far a good second half from Todd Jones, is kicking the ass of the American League. Bonderman, Maroth, Verlander, Zumaya, Robertson- these young power arms are just awesome. This is what can happen when you're patient with young pitching. This is why you stick with these guys and don't trade them at the deadline. They're very good, they're inexpensive, they're exciting, and they just might help you win lots of games. Of course, they throw a bad game every so often, and I'm happy that Verlander chose last night to unravel a bit. The rookie of the year and maybe even the Cy Young award will depend on whether he or Papelbon make a bigger impact down the stretch.

My big question of the day is how this would fly in Red Sox Nation? To a certain extent, Theo has already made it clear that we're sticking with these young arms and not trading them, even if it means losing some games when they're still learning how to pitch. Everyone I talk to or listen to express a variety of the same sentiment- "well, that's Detroit, it's ok to be a loser there for a few years, the fans don't expect much. You can't do that in Boston. The fans wouldn't stand for it." It's become almost a truism through its repetition.

I think it's wrong, though. I know Sox fans hate to lose, hate to face the possibility of not making the playoffs. But it's wrong. Not only did 2004 change everything, but the Sox have become almost inelastic in their demand. Like the Green Bay Packers, win or lose, the Sox will always play to a full house. Fans may grumble, but they'll grumble from their expensive, uncomfortable seats at Fenway. They'll grumble while paying for NESN as part of their cable or satellite package. There may come a time when Theo's modified, hybrid rebuilding process gets old or falls apart and fans get truly alienated, but that day is a long long way off. More than anything, and despite all their grumbling, the fans realize that Theo is a smart guy who wants to put together a great system and a great team for the sustainable future. They know he wants to do the right thing more than he wants to please the fans. They might resent this, but they also respect it and even appreciate it.

Of course if your veteran starters can't ever get into the seventh inning and your young bullpen pitchers are so overworked their arms fall off by the first week in September, that might change things. Check back on this one.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

E9! Can I get an E9 from the congregation?

How many times this season was a Red Sox game decided on a poor fielding play? Have there been that many games in which the Red Sox defensive lapse was the definitive moment of the game? I can’t think of that many- maybe I haven’t been paying enough attention, or don’t have a keen enough perception for the subtle art of defensive positioning or a bad jump on a ball. I just don’t think that there have been that many examples of this. One in particular stands out to me, and that was the game where Coco lost the ball in the sun, jumped up against the wall, missed the ball horizontally by six feet, and then had Manny flick the ball back to him with his glove. That was a pretty terrible play, and that resulted in an in-the-park homer. I don’t even know if that was definitive, but I know it was significant. There have probably been a couple of others, but not many to my recollection.

That is why last night’s game was so strangely unique. In a very tight game, a well-pitched game, the definitive play was Wily Mo’s total screw-up of the pop-up to right field in the top of the ninth. He had to run for it, and it would have been a fine play. It was probably shallow enough to hold the runner at third and avoid a tag-up run. Wily Mo so clearly was mentally focused on the throw before he finished the catch that he just blew it, and the lead runner came home, securing the 3-2 win. It was another tight game, and another disappointing game. It wouldn’t have even been close enough for Wily Mo to screw up if it hadn’t been for another miraculous hit from Papi in the bottom of the 8th. I don’t know how he can clear his head and just focus on putting the ball in play in those situations, but his RBI single was yet another major argument in his favor for the MVP.

I’m not at all ready to concede the season. It’s still too early for that. The monstrous, probably heart-attack inducing five-game series this weekend against the Yankees will be more definitive on whether or not this season is over. I’ll check back in on that one Monday, assuming I’m still capable of abstract thought.

But back to the point- why was last night’s play so unique? Two reasons. First, that this year’s Sox team blew a game primarily because of a defensive mistake. As has been frequently pointed out, this has been one of the most solid defensive teams in recent Sox history. Sure, you couldn’t call an outfield with Manny, Coco, Trot, and Wily Mo legendary or historic in their brilliance, but they’ve been surprisingly solid- especially Manny. The right side of the infield has also been reliable- neither Youkilis’ nor Loretta’s range would be likely to make you forget Roberto Alomar and Keith Hernandez. The left side, however, has been probably the best ever in Boston. Lowell and Gonzalez, at positions that routinely could see 30 errors out of the likes of Renteria, Garciaparra, Valentin, Stynes, you name it now has fewer than a dozen. That defense has been a major reason that we’re even here at this point where blowing all these games in a playoff race is such a major disappointment. They’ve kept us in this thing this far with their gloves.

The other remarkable point is that Wily Mo wasn’t given an error on the play. As I said, he did have a good run in order to get to the ball, but it wasn’t extraordinary. It wasn’t a run that the average right fielder couldn’t have made. The error was mental- he took his concentration off of the catch and focused on the throw to come. It was E9, plain and simple.

The larger point that I’ve noticed, and that has been pointed out in an article I read recently (and would attribute if I could find it), is that errors are being called with less frequency. This could be a function of better fielding, better ballpark groundskeeping, or some historical trend related to the number of ground balls versus fly balls. As likely as not, it is also a function of the official scorekeepers bowing to increasing pressure from the teams and the all-encompassing focus on statistics. A shortstop with 10 errors on the season is probably due for a stronger arbitration argument than a guy with 20 on the season. A solid half of those errors are probably a judgment call by the official scorekeeper that could go either way. A history of getting bitched at after the game by the manager and shortstop, or by some front-office flunky, might be enough to make the scorekeeper decide calling an error is not worth the hassle. On the other hand, pitchers could be bitching the other way, concerned about their ERA, though my guess would be they probably don’t do this as much for fear of appearing to be a bad teammate who doesn’t support his fielders.

Whatever the reason, the drop in overall errors called in the league has been substantial- with more than 30% fewer errors called per team per year on average these days than thirty or forty years ago. The result of this is that this year’s Red Sox team is actually on pace to break the MLB record for fewest team errors in a season- a record of 64 or 65 (I’ll have to double-check) set by the Mariners a few years back. As of right now, the Sox are still well under 50 errors for the year. That’s pretty amazing. It might even be a minor point of pride, a little bright spot for a team that is well on its way to missing the playoffs for the first time since 2002. But is it historic? Is this the best defensive team ever? Um, let’s take another look at Wily Mo’s play last night, and you tell me.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

And Now, A Minute With Andy Rooney

This Red Sox team makes me weary. So much talent, so much room for excitement, so much corresponding room for disappointment. Another wasted chance last night. The Detroit Tigers don't have a lineup that scares you. Josh Beckett was primed for a great start. Instead, he gives up five runs in the first couple of innings, and the Sox can't quite get it together. They teased enough with Youk's homer and a shockingly good seventh inning from Rudy Seanez before dashing those hopes with DeMarlo Hale's stunningly bad choice of sending Manny to his death at the plate instead of holding him at third. But yet I watch, and I get weary. Worse, I think this team is making me old. I feel old watching them. How old do I feel, you ask? Andy Rooney old. So Andy Rooney old, in fact, that I'm going to do the rest of today's entry in his quizzical and crotchety style.

Why is it that Jon Lester needs 68 pitches to get through just three innings, while Greg Maddux takes those same 68 pitches and gets through eight innings? That's the truth- Sunday night, Maddux went eight innings against the Giants in what looked like a fantastic pitchers' duel versus Jason Schmidt. He was only 68 pitches deep in the eighth when Grady Little pinch-hit for him. That would never have happened in the American League, of course. In the AL, Maddux would have been good for about 13 innings. This to me just underscores the incredible mental aspect to pitching. I've been a fan of Maddux for a long time, since the early-mid 1990s at least, because he's the guy who wins with his head. At 40-plus years old against major league pitching, he's probably 10 years removed from his last fastball that cleared 92 mph. But eight innings, two hits, no walks, no runs, 68 pitches? Pull up a seat, Messrs. Lester and Beckett. It's time to learn something.

Why is it that the most effective pitcher on the Red Sox over the past week has been a big, out of shape, over-the-hill surly fat guy who would rather be playing for the Yankees and drinking in some Hell's Kitchen (sorry, Chelsea) bar than having anything to do with his own team? Look at the final scores over the last week- even in the sweep against the Orioles. Our pitching has been completely awful. We're giving up seven or eight runs a game, and everyone's underperformed expectations. Except, of course, for Boomer. He provided the least likely bright spot in this pitching staff, going seven strong. I don't know if that's something to build around, but if you get past his exterior, he's actually not that different from Maddux that way. The postseason probability site has dropped the Sox to around 33%. Unless we get more pitching like Wells' last start, that's probably an optimistic number.

Why is it that Kevin Youkilis is called a Greek God? He's really lumpy, and not at all cut like a statue of marble. I guess it's because Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta were famously quoted in the book "Moneyball" as referring to the minor-league Kevin as "Euclis, the Greek God of Walks" on account of his insane OBP in the minors. One year- I think it was 2002- the two best on-base percentages in professional baseball belonged to Barry Bonds and Kevin Youkilis. Is there any doubt that Billy Beane lusted after this funny-looking guy? But now, Mark Loretta comes and punches a hole in our dream. A week or so back, after Loretta's game-winning hit off the Monster, Tina Cervasio interviewed Loretta about the key walk that Youkilis drew ahead of his hit. Mark said, and I'm paraphrasing, "everyone calls him the Greek God of Walks, but it's funny- he's not even Greek."

Why is it that the emotional leadership on this team is coming from a guy who was supposed to be washed up; a guy with an albatross of a contract that was just a throw-in on a questionable trade? I'll admit, during spring training, I was heard to say something like: "that persistent sucking sound you hear coming from Ft. Meyers is Mike Lowell." After his dreadful year last year in Florida and his really awful spring training, I was pretty sure his contract and hole in the lineup would pretty much make the Beckett trade a bad one. As it turns out, he's been nothing short of tremendous. He's both an offensive and defensive upgrade on the beloved Bill Mueller, and in the last week, he's taken this team on his back. With injuries to the dirt dogs Trot and Tek, and neither of the Dominican sluggers being real leadership guys, Lowell has been the guy. He injures both ankles on consecutive nights on foul balls, he gets hit in the head with a pitch, but he stays in the game and plays the best third base we've seen in a really long time. His game-saving stab in the bottom of the 9th Sunday night bailed Papelbon out in a major way. Until further notice, Red Sox Nation, your leader is standing over there in the hot corner.

Not had enough? I'll give you some more quickies. Why is it that the tallest, most hulking member of the Red Sox is the one with the cutest little-boy name? Wily Mo? We're supposed to be intimidated by a man named Wily Mo? Actually, yes. I suppose Coco Crisp may be in that contest also. Why is it that last night's loss, which put the Sox 2 games behind the Yankees, felt so much worse than when we were two games back Sunday morning? Why is it that the Tigers and the Twins, who are enjoying very good seasons by sticking with young pitching are universally applauded and the Red Sox, who are having a relatively good season, are crucified for refusing to trade their young pitching for a bigger name? Why is Wily Mo, who was supposed to be a lefty-killer, only hitting about .230 against lefties while killing righties to the tune of .350?

I don't have answers this morning. I only have questions. The worst part, of course, is that those questions are being asked in my head by that Andy Rooney voice. And that, my friends, is the worst thing of all.

Monday, August 14, 2006

You don't HAVE to thank me, I suppose

Like most Red Sox fans, and probably like most hard-core fans across baseball, I'm given to a little bit of mindless superstition when it comes to my team. If my wife grabs the remote and changes the channel in the middle of an inning, I'll never hestitate to blame her when one of the relievers gives up a homer. When the Sox lost three times in a row when I wore my "Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Bellhorn" t-shirt, I had to stop wearing it on game days for the rest of that season.

At the same time, like many contemporary fans, I have more than a passing interest in statistics. I understand that one at-bat, one game, one series- these are all small sample sizes, and not terribly relevant in the context of a season or a franchise's history. I completely understand that correlation is not causality. Just because two occurences happened together doesn't mean necessarily that one was caused by the other.

Having said all of that, I just want it noted for the record that I singlehandedly turned the Red Sox season around this weekend. In October of 2004 as the playoffs were getting underway, I began to toy with an idea that would cement my status as a Red Sox fan. When the Yankees were just embarrassing the Sox in Game 3 of the ALCS, 19-8, I made a promise. Like many members of Red Sox nation, I made a pact with the universe. If the Sox pulled it out and won the World Series, I promised to get a Red Sox tattoo. I don't want to say that promise was what did it, after all, many other people made promises and of course Papi, Schilling, Damon, Bellhorn, and a few other guys had something to do with it. But I did make that promise- I'm just sayin'.

Forward in time to this past Friday. Nearly two years had gone by and I had not made good on my promise to get a tattoo. I know, I never stated a time frame, but I began to feel the weight of the universe calling in the bargain. A 1-5 road trip, losing embarrassing games to the Devil Rays and the Royals made everything clear to me. Falling behind in both the Wild Card and in the Division made my action absolutely crucial.

On Friday afternoon (before game time, please note) I went over to a new tattoo studio (run by a very nice lady who is a die-hard Sox fan as well) and got it done. I now have a small tattoo, about an inch-and-a-half square, of the two red socks on my left forearm, just inside the elbow. She did a nice job- it's a very nice, tasteful tattoo.

The rest of the story would then be available in any newspaper or sports website. The Sox swept the Orioles this weekend, climbing back to one game out in the East and keeping pace in the Wild Card. The pitching was still shaky, except for David Wells who pitched very effectively. For the most part, the offense was provided by guys other than Manny and Papi. If you had said that the Sox would score 28 runs over three games and those two guys didn't have more than a couple RBI apiece, I'd have been quite surprised. That is not how this season has been defined.

Somehow, though, Mirabelli, Wily MO!, Lowell, and Coco carried this weekend. One theory on this was that following the trade deadline, the team went into a bit of tailspin because of injuries and the fact that the front office had not consummated any trades to help the team. That must have been wearying for the guys left on the team. After things fell apart a bit on the road, and after a couple of weeks of tightrope walking with only Papi and Manny bailing them out, something clicked. These guys looked at each other and said- we're it. We're the team. There's no Bobby Abreu or Roy Oswalt riding into town to save our season. We can sink or swim together. The result is three solid wins over the O's. Despite the tense nature of two of those games, I didn't have the same feeling of panic. Sure, I was tense when we were in extra innings or when Papelbon struggled yesterday in the 9th. I wasn't panicky. These were team victories- I had that feeling that all of a sudden, everyone on the team was capable of stepping up and winning it for us. We didn't have to go into extra innings until we got back to the 3-4 spots in the batting order.

I know it's only Baltimore, who the Sox have utterly dominated this year, but this weekend felt like the team coming together, and at the perfect time. With the Tigers and the Yankees coming to town for the next eight games, they're finally a team that can be really proud of themselves. Parts of the pitching staff are still more than questionable, but Wake and Foulke aren't that far away, and Wells seems back. The Tigers aren't that scary (in fact, the White Sox seem very capable of catching them) and the Yankees are beatable. This team showed me this weekend that they can win.

Of course, all of this could also be happening because of my tattoo. I'm not saying that my making good on my promise has single-handedly changed the Sox fate and turned around their season. I wouldn't want to jinx it like that. I'm only laying out the facts for the record, and for your review. You don't have to thank me- I'm just doing what I can to help.

Friday, August 11, 2006

Can We Talk About Something Else, Please?

For nearly a week now, I've had a bunch of topics in the back of my head and in the front of my little notebook. They are little notes about baseball-related subjects that I want to address in one form or another in this blog. For the past week, though, I've had neither the opportunity nor the inclination to do that. To talk about those things requires a motivation, an energy that has been swiftly and steadily been sucked out of me.

Earlier on in the season, I couldn't watch the game when the Sox were behind- especially early in the game. It was too hard, and it was too counter to my belief that these guys could and should win every game. It is a truly remarkable thing that I'm able, and even willing and interested now in watching the entire game, regardless of performance. The fall from first-place front-runner to being several games back in both the East and the Wild Card has been devastatingly swift. The string of losses to the two (statistically) worst teams in the AL has been so complete and definitive that it has almost become an entirely new team, and an entirely new paradigm of expectations. Last night, things came to their fullness, with Curt Schilling (the last pitcher to have seen a win in one of his starts) collapse in the 8th inning. You could argue he'd been heading for that after giving up so many doubles, but despite my surprise and disappointment, I couldn't muster much more than a sigh.

I do believe in Theo and the front office's plan to build a great team long-term. I also recognize that I've only been an active fan of this team for eight or nine years. I further note that despite the fact that we've lost twenty percentage points in the last week, our Playoff Odds are still at a relatively hopeful 33%. This season isn't a total washout yet, but I'm getting close to that point of writing off this season, emotionally, and looking to the future.

Despite all of this, the discussion boards and the callers to sports talk shows are just furious with second-guessing and finger pointing. It's probably more acute now, but this discussion has always bothered me. I love to speculate on possibilities, but have always found it somewhat distateful to second guess. For instance, I can predict with absolute metaphyiscal certitude that the talk shows today will continue to question why Theo didn't bring in a pitcher at the trade deadline. More pointedly, they will attack Terry Francona for letting Schilling pitch into the 8th last night. His pitch count was still low and he'd only given up two runs to that point, but that won't stop the talk.

I think the reason that I don't like the second-guessing (except in the case of Grady Little leaving Pedro in) is that there are too many variables. I took a class in chaos theory in college, and learned a good deal about sensitivity to initial conditions. Taking out Craig Hansen and Jon Lester and inserting Roy Oswalt (even if the Astros would have gone for that trade) don't necessarily add up to winning all these games. Hell, maybe it would have. The thing I can't stomach is the radio pundits and callers claiming with certainty that everything would have been better if we could have pulled the trigger on that.

If there's on thing that chaos theory and watching baseball teaches me, it's that we just don't know what's going to happen. Sometimes things do just go down the toilet. The revenue imbalance that was supposed to kill baseball competition hasn't done so yet. The Royals and the Rays can still take it to the Sox. The Yankees can still lose to the Twins. I do believe ultimately, as the spread of "Moneyball" becomes complete and market gaps close up, the revenue gulf will become a major problem. It hasn't happened yet- because there are too many other things going on. Believe me, it's tearing me up to see the Sox collapse like this. The joy I get in the mornings getting to read a happy headline on Boston Dirt Dogs is a tangible thing for me. But sometimes, things just go down the toilet. I still don't want to accept it, and I don't want to admit defeat, but sometimes it gets really hard and it's easier to talk about something else for a while.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Instant Karma's Gonna Get You

Man, I just hate it when the mysterious, immutable cosmic laws of justice rear their ugly head in the middle of a perfectly lovely baseball season. It has a way of dampening spirits that were apparently too artificially high. I think that the universe has officially notified the Red Sox that when you live by the high-tension comback victory and the walkoff, you can also die by the high-tension comeback victory and the walkoff. It just sucks when you have to get reminded of that when you're so expecting a win against the damn Royals. Our glorious cheesecake road trip is off to a 1-4 start with one game to go. It's up to theravada (buddhist for "old school") warrior Curt Schilling to stop the bleeding tonight.

Bill James, many years ago, coined a phrase called "the plexiglass principle." This basically explained a regression to the mean- teams that enjoy historically good seasons (the 2001 Mariners, for example) are usually not that good the following year. Other historically bad teams will generally not lose 115 games in back-to-back seasons. Because so much of baseball is the ebb and flow of luck, these teams will not generally not experience the same sort of luck, good or bad, for that long a period. It's just improbable. Put a little bit more folksy, the sun will eventually shine on your dog's ass.

Within the course of a season, we're seeing a little bit of that principle with the Sox. It's too bad we had to have our 12-game winning streak in a less crucial part of the season than we're having this horrendous stretch right now. The point is, though, that the Sox were never as good this year as their big win streak, and there's no way that they're as bad as they are right now. Papelbon wasn't ever going to go all season without surrendering a run (as he did for over 20 innings to start the season) nor is he going to continue to blow saves (as he has twice in a row now). This isn't that much comfort right now, I guess, with the Yankees and White Sox (and Twins) pulling away despite having to play each other. The lesson I'm trying to take from this is that when karma kicks you in the gut, at least it helps remind you that karma works.

I think that Terry Francona did help things a bit last night when he modified the lineup. I was going to write about this yesterday so everyone would see how brilliant I was, but I didn't get to it. You'll have to take my word for the fact that I was going to suggest returning Youkilis to the leadoff spot, Coco down the batting order (around 7th, although he did get the night off yesterday) and hitting Wily Mo 5th behind Manny. You've got to have some clout behind Manny, and in the absence of Trot, Wily Mo is the only hitter with the potential to scare the bejeezus out of pitchers. So at least Terry got my psychic message on that one. Even with his lumpy, white-guy slowness, Youkilis is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. He needs to stay there.

For my part, I thought I would offer up a bit of a confession in an effort to help improve our karma. Since the early 1980's, I've been carrying around a resentment of the Kansas City Royals that is probably not healthy. Back in 1982 or 1983, Robin Yount (Hall of Famer Robin Yount of the Milwaukee Brewers) was having one of his two MVP seasons. He was neck-and-neck with Willie Wilson of the Royals for the batting crown. This was back when the batting crown was probably more important than the home run or RBI crowns. Yount finished the season at about .331. Willie Wilson entered the last game of the season hitting .332. He sat out that game (or the Royals sat him out and he didn't do any Ted Williams-style protesting) and won the batting crown. I was only maybe 8 years old at the time, but even then (and perhaps because of my youthful sense of fairness) I thought it was a lousy thing to do. Play the damn game. Take your shot, trust your ability. I know that the lifelong fans of the Royals include several of my favorite baseball writers like Bill James, Rob Neyer, and Rany Jazayerli. I just have never seen them as much more than George Brett and a bunch of chickenshit Willie Wilsons.

I'm now ready to lay that burden down. For the sake of the karma of Red Sox nation, I will no longer hold this grudge against the Royals. Yount's in the Hall of Fame, and I hope he doesn't care about that anymore. I won't necessarily root for the Royals, but I will promise now not to hold the sins of Willie Wilson against Mike Sweeney and these lousy Royals that we can't seem to beat. Do you hear that, universe? Good. Time to start winning again.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

The Boston Liebermen

What the Sox need right now is a little joe-mentum. Like our esteemed junior senator here in the great state of Connecticut, the Sox need to plunge further into denial and keep going. Since 2000, Lieberman has run three major campaigns (let's leave aside his basically un-opposed run for the Senate in 2000). In 2000, he and Al Gore lost the presidential campaign to George W. In 2004, he finished a distant fifth in the New Hampshire primaries while he tried his own presidential run. Last night, here in 2006, he lost his own democratic primary to the Kansas City Royals of Connecticut politics- Ned Lamont.

The Sox could learn a little something from Joe. He's still going to run. Do you think the guy that Bill Clinton has been calling a "good, loyal democrat" will respect the will of the voters of his party, call his senatorial run a day and take some half-million dollar job as a lobbyist? Nope. He's gonna run as an independent, and I'll tell you what- I bet he wins in November. He says he'll caucus as a Democrat, but I don't know if I'd want him around if I was a Senate Democrat.

Ok, enough politics- what does this have to do with the Sox? Well, last night, they just got beaten in disappointing fashion by a crappy team for the third night in a row. I don't want to say that they simply cannot afford losses like this at a time like this with the standings like this, but...well, we can't do much more of it. I had planned to write what a golden opportunity this series was, given that we were playing the Royals and the White Sox are playing the Yankees. The team we trail in the East is playing the team we have tied for the Wild Card lead. All the Sox had to do was win, and good things happen for them.

I even foolishly tried to wrap my head around the complex issue of who to root against more in that series. If we're farther behind the Yankees, do we want them to lose to regain that ground, or do we want to put good distance between us and the White Sox, given that we've got more head-to-head games against New York to catch up? I asked my six-year-old daughter that question. She cleared it up for me- "Daddy," she said, "you should never cheer for the Yankees. They're the Red Sox enemies!" Well, of course she's right. Last night, the White Sox did end up beating the Yankees in extra innings, so the Red Sox still find themselves two back in the East and a game back in the Wild Card.

The part that the Red Sox forgot to take care of, was of course that bit about having to win a game and a series against the worst team in baseball. Of course, don't tell Jon Lester and Craig Hansen that- they're still under the impression that these guys are major league hitters. Actually, I'm a little tired of complaining about our pitching- maybe I'll complain about the hitting for a minute. I know that we're spoiled with Papi and Manny in the middle of our lineup. We take their greatness for granted. But shouldn't this be the job of the fans and not of the team? They showed a statistic on the screen last night about this- since the all-star break, Manny and Papi have been hitting around .340 with 16 or 17 homers. The rest of the team- the other seven lineup slots plus bench players- is hitting around .250 with 14 homers. And that counts those two insane homer shots hit by Wily Mo this week. That young fella has some pop in his bat. If he can just get a hold of them, damn. His future will be somewhere between Rob Deer and Willie McCovey. If he keeps improving, having the Dangerous Dominican Trio of him, Manny, and Papi in the order? I hate to say wait until next year, but a little patience on that kid could be really fun.

Meanwhile, what could possibly be the most encouraging news of the week was released yesterday. Francisco Liriano, the 12-3, 2.00 ERA rookie pitcher for the Twins, may be headed to the DL with muscle soreness in his throwing arm. The article talked about how the guy was almost in tears with disappointment, and you feel bad for the kid. I especially feel bad for my fantasy team, which, thanks to Liriano, was actually NOT in last place this year. For the Red Sox, however, this is good news. A team like the Twins is not going to be able to sustain that roster hit for long in a heated, three-team Wild Card race. They have two pitchers (plus Joe Nathan) and two hitters. A loss of Liriano will be very bad for the Twins, but I think the Sox will see some benefit. Actually Papelbon may be the biggest single beneficiary from this news. If he stays on his game, he may waltz to the Rookie of the Year award as well as possibly the Cy.

Again, though, to benefit from the largesse of Liriano's sore arm, the Sox have to do their part. They've actually got to win a game against these suckers. So far, though- not so much. Maybe they should take Joe's lead- ignore what the numbers say- that's just the scoreboard. Claim victory and keep going. God and the voters of Red Sox Nation know you're winners. Maybe there's still time to register as an independent team and win the big series against the St. Paul Saints or the Bridgeport Bluefish. Go Joe Go! Go Sox Go!

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Have You Seen Enough?

Life as a baseball fan can be a continual internal struggle. Let me clarify that. Life as a (statistics-loving) (Red Sox) baseball fan (during the Theo Epstein era) can be a continual internal struggle (between one's cool, sabermetric logic and one's passionate Sox-fan heart). The Sox go out and trade for Josh Beckett, giving up Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez, and there is both panic and exultation. Beckett starts the season with two improbably brilliant starts, and this is the greatest move Theo ever made. A little later on, Beckett is leading the league in home runs surrendered, Hanley is batting over .300 and stealing a base every other game, and Theo may have miscalculated (or did this trade happen during that week Theo was not officially with the Sox?) A short time after that, the Sox signed Beckett to a multi-year extension, and Red Sox nation braces itself- then Beckett pitches his best game of the year to that point, and everyone exhales. It's a high-tension, high-wire act, this business of trades, contracts, prospects, and the future.

This year has been more interesting than the last few years in Sox history from that perspective. It has been in this year that Theo and his crew have really begun to put their stamp on this team and the direction it is going. In previous years, in previous trades, Theo and the boys were very much playing with house money. In 2003 and 2004, the players they got rid of- Casey Fossum, Shea Hillenbrand, Freddy Sanchez- hell, even Nomar, were guys drafted and signed under Duquette's (or even Lou Gorman's) regimes. We gave Theo a wide berth when it came to the thought that "these aren't OUR type of player."

A few years and a few drafts into the Theo administration, we have a better chance to see what they want this team to be like. The trading deadline non-deals showed us pretty clearly what this team's philosophy is going to be. They have targeted specific players, and have decided they'd not overpay for them. They think that they know what value their own prospects have, and would only give them up in specific scenarios. The scenario is this- they seemed to be willing to trade top prospects (Jon Lester and Craig Hansen, for instance) for Roy Oswalt (via Andruw Jones) if it meant they had a chance to lock up Oswalt for three or four years, avoiding his free agency at the end of the year. Something in this trade clearly got derailed, but I think this is the right approach. I love the potential that Lester and Hansen bring, and love the fact that they're young and cheap, but when you could pencil in Roy Oswalt for 100+ starts in a Red Sox uniform, you can't turn away from that.

The big problem, and the one that was originally the point of this entry, is that you're guessing at the future. Did the Sox know that Freddy Sanchez had the potential to lead the league in hitting? Did we know that Anibal Sanchez would pitch like he has in Florida? Do we really see Josh Beckett as a future #1 starter? Is Coco Crisp worth the contract extention the Sox gave him? These are the questions that I struggle with- the head and the heart battling it out. Aside from the trades, the Sox made the previously unheard-of move of signing several guys to contract extensions in-season. This is something I hadn't expected from Theo.

Toward the end of Spring Training, the Sox gave Papi a four-year extension worth around $50 million. I can neither argue this one nor find fault- for a couple of years, Papi was literally the biggest bargain in the majors, and though he signed his contracts and didn't complain, locking him up, and paying a fair salary for his services is pretty much above doubt. He's done nothing so far to consider that anything other than a good move. The problem is, of course (as with Pedro and Varitek and other long-term deals) that it's not that the player has problem justifying the salary in the first or second year of the deal, but in the third and fourth.

The other two in-season signings did perplex me. The Sox signed both Josh Beckett and Coco Crisp to multi-year extensions- I believe three years each. About $30 million for Beckett, and I forget how much for Coco. Are these deals good or bad? Clearly, the Sox identified a number that would give them reasonable risk of collapse to weigh against the cost certainty of the budget and the production they expected from these guys. I just wish that I knew today if they were right about them. Either one of these guys could be a superstar. Either one could also fall off the face of the earth and collapse. It's really hard to judge with only a couple of months' worth of evidence with these guys in Sox uniforms. What's even harder, though, is waiting until the time when we have seen enough evidence.

Let us pray for patience on this. Lord, grant us the patience to wait a statistically-significant amount of time before we judge the contracts of Beckett and Crisp. Grant us this patience NOW!

Monday, August 07, 2006

Disappointment Was My Closest Friend

Who could use the inspiring sounds of Jackie Wilson's "Higher and Higher" right about now? Let's combine that with the scene in "Ghostbusters II" when they animate the Statue of Liberty and marshall the positive emotions of all New Yorkers to defeat the power of Vigo the Carpathian and help Bill Murray give Sigourney Weaver one last kiss before she totally hit the wall. Or if you're more of a traditional fan of cinematic uplift, how about listening to Joe Cocker and Jennifer Warnes as we watch Richard Gere sweep Debra Winger off her feet and carry her out of the factory? Either way, I could use a little inspiration, a little hope in this unpleasant emotional place our Red Sox have put me in today.

My first attempt at this blog entry crashed about 75% into it. I had some really good thoughts about yesterday's loss to the Devil Rays being an important crossroads game, and then the computer froze up. I tried again, and it locked again. It became, for me, a beautiful and painful metaphor for how the Red Sox tried four times yesterday to put the game away, and four separate, consecutive relief pitcher coughed it up. Delcarmen, Timlin, Papelbon, and Tavarez all combined to break the heart of Red Sox nation and ruin the otherwise positive strong start from Jason Johnson.

I know that the Red Sox have been banged up and their cast of characters keeps changing. Did anyone here think that we'd be trying to hang on the playoff hunt with a catcher named Corky? I've never been able to see much in the way of tangible evidence that "team leadership" meant that much, but when you combine the injuries to Varitek and Trot with a week and a half's worth of completely uninspiring, treading-water type of baseball, I'm beginning to wonder if there's a really important void in that clubhouse. I think that the Sox need to take this day off to think about this. What sort of a team are they going to be? What direction will this season take? You just cannot lose two of three to the Devil Rays (the post-trade-deadline Devil Rays) and expect the Yankees, Twins and White Sox to wait around for you. The Sox have really showed the inability to just step on the neck of their opponents and take charge.

I checked the postseason odds this morning. While we still lead both the White Sox and Twins, our chances of reaching the playoffs are at 50%. That feels just about right. It's fitting that the Sox are going to Kansas City. It's not St. Louis, but it's as close to a crossroads as you can find in the American League. These Sox are at that crossroads. Despite the positive fact that the Twins and White Sox are going to have to play each other another six to eight times this season, the Red Sox can't expect either of them to collapse and go away. The playoff chase starts tomorrow in Kansas City. I know it's still a six or seven week season. I know that one series in August doesn't carve anything in stone. I know my own tendency to panic and get too emotionally invested in the results of a single game. All the same, though, this just feels like a time the Sox need to figure out who they are.

So today, when the only appointment the Sox have is disappointment, hopefully someone will step up and right this ship. I think that the starting pitching is headed in the right direction. Coco Crisp has been hitting better lately and Javy Lopez is due to start hitting very soon. Things have got to start getting better. Or else they'll get worse, and I'll be left to my movies. At least with a movie you've seen twenty times, you can be somewhat assured of a happy ending.

Saturday, August 05, 2006

Be it ever so self-evident...

Sometimes I have a thought or an idea that makes me feel like a deeply profound genious. Most of the time this thought is probably one that has been thought and stated by millions of people before me. Most of the time the thought it so self-evident, most people don't even bother expressing it or even teasing it out from the rest of their congnitive flow and giving it special recognition. Nevertheless, when I have these thoughts, I like to pause and hold them up like some sort of zen object.

My most frequent thought of this type is "hey- I bet yawning is some sort of automatic response of the brain to not getting enough oxygen." I never read that anywhere nor have I ever heard a scientist or doctor say that. You probably all knew this or learned this. I figured it out for myself, and whenever I think that thought, it makes me feel brilliant.

Today, my genious thought is a baseball thought, and it is this: it is really good to get a win like the Sox got last night. A solid 3-2 win, with your starting pitcher (Schilling) going seven high-wire innings, your reliever (Delcarmen) pitching a good 8th to bridge to your closer (guess) who strikes out two in a perfect 9th for the save. I suppose I could add that Papi hits two solo shots, but this only helps the warm feeling incrementally. Consider the situation that the Sox found themselves in last night, and this win just feels good.

After a very uninspired 3-4 homestand that included the loss of both Trot Nixon and Jason Varitek, the shaky return of David Wells and a plummet out of first place, the Sox could have really used a solid win. Although Javy Lopez didn't do much in the game yesterday, having him around to strap on the tools after Mirabelli tweaked his ankle early on in the game was downright salvific. Ever since he caught on those great Braves teams of the mid 1990's, I've liked Javy. He's got one of the most genuine and charming smiles in baseball. Last night, as he took off the mask and strode toward Papelbon to congratulate him on the save, he smiled. It wasn't a huge grin, but it was more than enough to make me feel instantly that things would be better. Javy is going to prove to have been an important pickup. I realize that trading away Adam Stern from Pawtucket really puts a crimp in the chances of having the Sox field the first major-league outfield with Jewish roots (Kapler-Stern-Youkilis), it's a pretty reasonable price to pay for what Javy can bring.

Looking forward, this is perfect time for the Sox to hit the road and take some deep, brain-feeding breaths. The next eight games feature the trade-deadline-depleted Devil Rays, the awful Royals, and the continually disappointing Orioles. It is another self-evident statement that the Sox need to fatten themselves and their record up on these teams. Minimally, a 6-3 road trip is needed at this point. 7-2 or 8-1 would be even better. Even with the injuries, even with the shaky pitching, these are not unattainable goals. On the contrary, I think I'd be quite disappointed if we doing pick up a game or two in the wild card or division this week.

It's Saturday morning at 6:00. I'm still tired from watching "For Love of the Game" late last night. As sappy as it was, I had to watch the whole thing. I should shut up and go back to bed. Or is that too obvious?

Friday, August 04, 2006

Groundhog Day

I feel oddly like I've been here before. Something about this territory is weirdly familiar. It's a feeling of disappointment, of dashed hopes in a minor key. Somehow, though, this is also a comfortable, almost soothing feeling- like knowing you've been through this daunting stretch of dark woods before.

Well, after the Sox 7-6 loss last night in a game they really didn't need to lose (except metaphysically), we find ourself solidly and familiarly in second place- staring up across a one-game gulf at the New York Yankees. If this seems like an odd sense of deja vu, that's because every year since 1998, the AL East standings have eventually shaken out just as they appear right now (NYY-BOS-TOR-BAL-TAM). Did I mention that the classic Bill Murray/Andie McDowell comedy was on TV last night also? I flipped back and forth. The movie was funnier.

I'm not by any stretch of the imagination conceding the division at this point in the season. I'm just suggesting that some greater force may be at work here. It could be an inner force- the Red Sox as a team, and their fan base, may actually be more comfortable in second place. We might have more motivation, more fire because of the familiarity of this position. If you're consistently better than the Yankees, what is there to drive you? We may in some way need them to keep us going. In that sense, you almost hope the Sox are playing with the Yankees like a cat plays with a mouse. Don't let it die- just shake it around, give it hope, let it stagger a few feet away, toward freedom, then silently put a paw on its tail and reel it in. It's a comforting thought, and I'm more and more convinced that the Sox have the offensive firepower to make that happen. There's just also this nagging possibility that the Sox are the mouse in this situation.

So now here we sit, as we have sat before (even in our wonderful 2004 season), in second place. Aside from having to endure Yankee-fan gloating, this hasn't worked out too badly for the Sox. Since 1998, we have made the playoffs five times (by my count) from the number 2 slot in the East. We've made the ALCS three times, and won it all. Sure, a bunch of division titles would be nice, but playoffs are playoffs. There's not a huge downside to the wild card. Except this year, there's a catch. We've got the White Sox and the Twins also with their eye on that prize, and each one has the capacity to get it. Assuming the Tigers don't totally collapse, and the Yankees don't run away with the East, you'll have four teams jockeying for two spots. We've been here before, and I still really like our chances.

With that in mind, however, I have to confess that as of yesterday, my seasonal obsessive-compulsive disorder has begun. There is a place on the web where crazed stat-head fans like myself can feed their particular disease. This place is Baseball Prospectus' "Postseason Odds" page. Using a complex algorithm that takes each team's statistics to this point in the season and plays out their remaining record for them- a million times- the BP guys come up with statistical odds of each team making the playoffs. As of this morning, the Sox were at 65% (34% chance of winning the division, 31% chance of winning the wild card). Comfortingly, last night's game didn't really affect our odds much- we were at 65% yesterday also. Starting yesterday, not a day will go by (a day in which I have internet access) when I will not check that website. And I will fret. Oh, how I will fret.

Tangentially, I have loved the BP website for many years- since they started in the mid-to-late 1990's really. This past year, however, I have stopped reading it. They started charging an annual membership to see most of the articles. The articles are very good, of course- still the best of their type, but almost predictable. They have carved out their niche in the performance-analysis world, as well as their tone and approach. It's just no longer worth $40 a year to read that every day. There are too many other things to do, and too many other options on the web now. The Hardball Times, Baseball Analysts, the Sons of Sam Horn, Sabernomics- put them together, and they're reasonable replacements for my formerly beloved BP. Fortunately, though, the Playoff Odds are still in the free section of their website.

I want to end with two quick things that I learned yesterday that I find laughable. I'm not laughing right now, but, well, let's say these things would be amusing were they not so stupid. First, Bruce Sutter entered the Hall of Fame this week. Good for him- the days in St. Louis as being "The Bullpen Named Bruce" were dominant indeed. His official bronze Hall of Fame plaque, however, is less impressive. There's a typo. One of the phrases reads something like "Lead his league in saves three times..." Are you with me on this? Shouldn't that be "Led?" Well, that's ok. This is only his permanent enshrinement.

The other thing strikes a little closer to my childhood home. Last week, the Milwaukee Brewers introduced a new contestant in their famous and very popular "Sausage Races." For those of you who don't know, in one of the inning breaks at Miller Park, several people dressed as enormous sausages come out on the field and have a race. A bratwurst, a hot dog, an italian sausage, and a polish sausage duke it out for glory. It's pretty cool. Last week, in an appropriate nod to Milwaukee's substantial hispanic population, the Brewers added a chorizo to the race. I, for one, was psyched. There's nothing like additional competition to keep my favored polish sausage in shape. Word came down yesterday, though, that Commissioner Bud Selig (he used to own the Brewers, by the way) has shut down the chorizo for the season. MLB rules apparently require a special registration process for new mascots, which the chorizo did not follow. Milwaukee's spicy-sausage supporters will have to wait until next year to cheer their favorite running meat. I'd like to be around next time Bud wanders down to Conejeto's on the near south side for lunch. No chorizo for you!

Thursday, August 03, 2006

This is killin' me

They have got to stop doing this. Seriously. I've been having some questionable heart issues going on, and this just isn't good for that. I was all set to write a blog entry at how disappointed I was that the Sox were slumping at a really bad time and how the Yankees seem to have that killer instinct for a winning streak at just the right time. I was all set to try to put an optimistic spin on things, talking about how Lester's start was actually decent and how it was good to have Wily Mo in the lineup. I was all set to try to put on a brave face while inside I was starting to panic.

Then they go and do something like this. Again. For the third time in five games. The Sox pulled out another game that I had emotionally written off. A game that I told myself was no longer worth my caring about. They teased me with two ludicrous-looking strikeouts in the bottom of the ninth, and then gave me Doug Mirabelli as my only hope? Mirabelli had a hell of an at-bat, and I think single-handedly made that young reliever (Fausto Carmona- good name) come unglued. He hit Doug and Gonzalez on consecutive pitches, and then Kevin Youkilis did what he does best- he worked the count mercilessly and finally Carmona walked him out of sheer frustration. And then Loretta. Sweet Loretta. Bangs a 96-mph fastball off the monster and sends everyone home delirious again. Makes everyone forget the 2-run homer Timlin gave up. Makes everyone forget the feeling of despair when we're down 3-0 in the first inning. It's just unreal. I've been all set to focus on the future and take the long view of this team, but they keep being relevant in the here and now. It's tough on the ticker.

What Mirabelli's game-saving at-bat disguised, however, is that the guy is just about done. You could put me firmly in the "best backup catcher in baseball" camp, but even I have to acknowledge that this guy is not even close to being an adequate fill-in while Tek gets healthy. If Wakefield is not pitching, Mirabelli is below-average defensively. At the plate, he looks really slow. He's lost so much bat speed that it's almost unfair to watch him face someone with a decent fastball. We need help at catcher.

Ken Huckabay is not the answer. Well, he's the situational answer- if the situation is "we need a guy to dislocate Jeter's shoulder." That's a more specialized job than Dave Roberts had in 2004. I don't think you can carry a guy on the roster for that. But when the situation is "solid semi-regular catcher," Huckabay will not get to too far. He barely reached the Mendoza line at Pawtucket. It may be time for Theo and the crew to start lighting up the switchboard and watching the waiver wire. Actually, the good thing about the Yankees actually being ahead by percentage points is that right now, they can't block any waiver-wire trades the Sox want to make. This is why acting quickly is a pretty keen idea- though I imagine either Theo knows this or someone probably whispered it to him.

The options are not that terrible. I count no less than three quality catchers whose last name starts with "L" who would be adequate fill-ins. Javy Lopez, Mike Lieberthal, and Jason LaRue are all on teams out of contention and have been rumored to be anywhere between willing and desperate to get the hell off their loser teams. They're all solid on both sides of the plate (actually behind the plate and off to the side)- though Lopez' numbers are down a bit and Lieberthal's numbers are clouded by some injuries earlier in the year. I can't quantify what Tek's presence means to the pitching staff, but I'd feel comfortable with any of these guys back there. Plus, it's not like having your knee scoped means you can't help the pitchers prepare anymore, right? Tek will still do that, right? Like helping Timlin pitch to Travis "Pronk" Hafner, right? Because that would be real good if he could help with that.

Finally, speaking of dislocating Jeter's shoulder, I was taken a bit by surprise by the ad I saw on the internet yesterday. Jeter's got himself a fragrance. Isn't that sweet? Britney has two already, so I guess Jeter figured he better get moving. My feelings for Jeter aside (right), I'm just not a real believer in having athletes market cologne. These are guys who emit foul body odor as a requirement of their jobs- if they don't stink, they're probably not doing very well. Someone on the radio made the point that guys like Jeter and Michael Jordan (who also has a fragrance) could smell like camels and would still be sex symbols- they're Jeter and Jordan for pete's sake! This doesn't mean that I have any inclination to want to smell like them. I don't think that a signature fragrance is what is holding me back from Jeter-like appeal.

Plus I just keep thinking of that great ESPN Sportscenter commercial with Gheorge Muresan pitching cologne: "Would you like to smell like me?" Um, thanks big guy, I'll just grab the last of the Old Spice.