Outskirts of Red Sox Nation

Friday, September 29, 2006

U-G-L-Y, you don't need no alibi

Aside from the fact that I was at a conference all day yesterday, I'm not sure what I would have said following the 11-0 loss to the Devil Rays in the last home game of the season. That was just horrible. Josh Beckett sucked just enough that his ERA for the season snuck back over 5- I think he's at 5.01. Nice first year in the AL, kid. This is probably another in a long line of things I've jinxed for the Sox. I noted a couple of weeks ago that I'd like to see 17 wins for Schilling (nope) and a sub 5 ERA for Beckett (nope).

Pitchers are a funny breed, though. There's the old expression "there's no such thing as a pitching prospect" (or TNSTAAPP, for those of you acronym junkies (AJs)) which would explain why the Sox would deal Anibal Sanchez (he of the no-hitter), Cla Merideth (he of the 0.9 ERA) and keep Craig Hansen (he of the...oh man did they hit that hard!). As rough as the Josh Beckett season has been, he has made all of his starts and provided at least some stability in the rotation to justify his contract extension. The news from Queens today is not as good. Pedro Martinez is out of the Mets rotation for the entirety of the post-season. Seems Pedro strained his calf- the other calf from the one that had him on the DL for most of August and September. From the Red Sox perspective, I'm guessing this is precisely what they were concerned about when they balked at giving Pedro a four-year deal back after 2004. He was just fine last year, and the very beginning of this year. He just broke down after that. He's getting a little old for a pitcher, but when you look at his frame and the amount of velocity that he gets out of his little arm, you wonder how he's lasted as long as he has. He may be back, and as a Pedro fan, I hope he is. But 1999-2000 Pedro is never coming back, and you have to tip your cap to the Sox front office for realizing that and not paying for whatever shell of Pedro is left in 2007 and 2008.

So now, the end is near (to steal a line from Paul Anka by way of Old Blue Eyes). The Sox have three more games left against the Orioles, who get to play spoiler in the great race for second place in the AL East. I can't even imagine who the Sox will be putting in their starting lineup. Murphy, Pedroia, Cora, Kapler, Pena, Pena, and a little dash of Papi. I know that it's probably hopeless at this point, but if Papi hits another one, and gets to 55 home runs and 140 RBI, you've got to thing the MVP voters have to think long and hard about putting his name at the top of that ballot. I see this as a Jeter/Papi/Justin Morneau race right now.

In the NL, the MVP is going to be won or lost this weekend. Heading in to the last couple of games, Ryan Howard has been pulling away from Albert Pujols- fueled largely by Howard's big early September and the complete collapse of the Cardinals. If the Cardinals lose the division, Pujols can kiss the MVP good-bye. The thing to watch, though, is if and how the Astros overtake them. My guess would be that if Lance Berkman can win at least one of this weekend's games with his bat and the Astros can win the division, Lance might be your darkhorse MVP. This is, of course, provided that the Dodgers hang on and beat the Phillies for the wild card.

So many variables. One weekend to decide it all. One prediction I can guarantee, though: come Tuesday, I'm going to have to go into barrel-scraping mode to come up with Sox topics. I'll talk about the post-season somewhat, but I'm hoping the Sox provide enough off-season drama to keep my blog afloat.

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Who cares about the clouds when we're together...

Does anyone else want to join me in a rousing rendition of "Happy Trails?" This seems to be the song of the day in Red Sox Nation. As we approach the last games of the year, it becomes clearer that we are seeing several members of the team in Red Sox uniforms for the last time. There are a couple of obvious ones- Trot Nixon, Mark Loretta. Probably Mike Timlin. Maybe Gabe Kapler. Probably Matt Clement.

Matt Clement is a sad story, really. After everyone was questioning his mental and physical toughness, it turns out that he was trying to pitch through the pain of a significantly torn rotator cuff and a torn labrum. That's real toughness. The problem now is that Clement is almost certainly a sunk cost for the Sox, and one of the costliest mistakes this front office has made. He's got zero trade value, as he's facing at least a year's worth of rehab and he's only got a year left on his contract. The Sox will eat next year's $9 million. I hope that he can come out healthy on the other end, but this is probably the last we've seen of him in Boston.

I'll miss Trot- he's one of the original Dirt Dogs, and one of the last (is he the last?) of Dan Duquette's draft guys. He might have even been drafted by Lou Gorman. He'll just not warrant re-signing. I can see him going to someplace like Pittsburgh, Colorado, or even Atlanta who could use a little outfield pop and some veteran leadership. The question for the Sox is who replaces him. There's no way in hell you're playing Wily Mo in right field at Fenway. Could you switch Manny back to right and put Wily Mo in left? Then you've got three outfielders playing at positions that aren't best for them. Wily Mo's best position is probably DH, but that's taken.

There's a lot of talk about bringing in someone like Gary Sheffield for a year or two. Alfonso Soriano, I can accept. But Sheffield? Please, please, please, don't bring in Gary Sheffield. I want to be able to cheer for the players on my favorite team. I am a totally hopeless Sox fan, but I would never cheer for Gary Sheffield. Aside from his general surliness and history of selfish behavior, I will never forget how he escaped from Milwaukee. He came up as a shortstop/third baseman, and could have been one of Milwaukee's all-time greats. But he tanked it. On purpose. He sucked on purpose so he could get out of Milwaukee, and then he admitted (or bragged about) it. Just so no one would think he was really actually lousy. Shortly thereafter he almost won a triple crown (and did win a World Series ring) with the Marlins. Thanks, Gary. Stay the hell out of Boston. On the subject of Milwaukee, I noticed that they have a season-ending series against St. Louis. Milwaukee is probably three months beyond contending, but with the Astros so close in the Central and the Cardinals nearing an epic collapse, it'll be fun to see the Brewers having some relevance in the hunt for the playoffs. I wouldn't mind them playing the spoiler. That would be good for our Brew Crew.

Topic change.

On the radio today, Curt Schilling pulled back from his comments of yesterday that hinted that he might ride off into the sunset after this season. He'll come back. The Sox will make some good moves, some big moves in the offseason, and Schilling will be back. He's still got a bunch left in the tank. It was good to see him finish the season strong, especially after his injuries this summer. Seeing him strike out that thug-in-training Delmon Young three times was a thrill. That's how major league pitching is, kid. That's how it's done.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

In for a pound

The race is on. The games are running out, and the competition is getting heated. Five games left. Can the Red Sox be one game better than the Blue Jays? Can we finish in second place in the AL East, or we have to suffer the humiliation of third place?

Does it really matter? Two months ago, I would have been shocked and offended at the suggestion that the Red Sox would finish in third place in the division. But now? Not so much. The Blue Jays were predicted to make some major noise in the division- they were the ones that broke open the piggy bank, brought in Troy Glaus, BJ Ryan, Lyle Overbay, Bengie Molina, and AJ Burnett to be more competitive. Well, to a certain extent, it worked. They are more competitive. They were able to stand toe-to-toe until the last week of the season with a Red Sox team that lost more player-days to injury than the 1918 Influenza Rays. Congratulations, guys. You still are going to finish ten-plus games back of the Yankees. Way to shake up the division.

I suppose this is the pot/kettle/black attitude I need to have to insulate myself from the pain and embarrassment, but really, does it matter that much if you finish second or third if the Wild Card is not a consideration? Sure, if it happens, all of the talking fatheads (I'm looking at you, John Kruk) on TV and the radio will talk about how this is the first time since 1997 that the division hasn't finished NY-BOS-TOR-BAL-TB. They'll talk about collapse of a potential Red Sox dynasty and question the front office and whether Theo Epstein was overrated. I'm going to quote "Meatballs" now, so get ready. It doesn't matter. It just doesn't matter. We'll have had an overall winning season, but it was disappointing and we finished out of the playoffs. The Blue Jays will have had an overall winning season, but it will have been a disappointment and they'll finish out of the playoffs. Same with the White Sox. Same with the Angels. Taking too much joy or agony over finishing second or third isn't worth it to me.

In a way- an admittedly masochistic way- I'd be glad to see the Jays finish ahead of the Sox this year. Obviously, it will make the collapse complete, but it will probably have two effects. First, by shaking up the division, it should have the effect of scaring the Red Sox front office into making some big moves. I think that the combination of intelligence in the front office and some significantly loosened purse-strings could make for an exciting off-season in Boston. The front office has made some questionable moves, but they've always pretended they had a tight budget and looked for value. If they can pretend to be the Yankees, at least for a few months, and just throw some of John Henry's billions at the problem, we might make some headway.

The second effect is that Toronto might be emboldened by their moderate success. They won't finish much better, record-wise than they did last year, but just finishing ahead of the walking corpse of the Red Sox will feel like progress. They'll throw more money around, but because of their shallower pockets, smaller margins for improvement, and that killer Canadian exchange rate, be weakened by the whole thing. I absolutely understand that the immediately preceeding Blue Jays argument would not stand up to the tiniest bit of logical scrutiny, but it's more that adequate for an insane fan-blog. Just accept it as gospel.

Finally, the Yankees are set to collapse. I just know it. The last two starts by Mussina and Johnson were really really terrible. Their offense may chug through another couple of great years, but next year, Chien-Mien Wang will have to pitch about 125 games if the Yankees are going to have a chance of holding everything together.

Third place, I embrace you. You are the bringer of a brighter tomorrow.

Monday, September 25, 2006

Now it seems more like a Red Sox season

I was wondering when this would happen. Things were just too quiet, despite the Sox falling officially out of the playoffs. The Sox dropped two of three to the Blue Jays, exhibiting poor relief pitching more than anything. Papi hit his 53rd homer, Dustin hit his second. Julian Tavarez pitched another incredible game- a complete game, on the heels of Josh Beckett's eight innings of shutout ball. Will next year be "Tavarez and Beckett and three days of" ...what, wreckage? If nothing else, Julian has bought himself a long look as a back-of-the-rotation starter next spring. He's under contract, and if he can keep this up, would look just fine as a #4 or #5 guy. That rotation could look something like: Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Wakefield, Tavarez. Depending on health and spring training performances, guys like Lester, Gabbard or Snyder could break camp as a long-man or spot starter. It's not terrible, actually. Health is a major thing, but from the looks of it, the bullpen needs more help than the starting rotation.

The bombshell of this weekend was that Manny Ramirez' agent made this year's announcement official- Manny wants out. Again. I was wondering when this was going to happen. I think it had been almost a year since we heard that Manny wanted to be traded- since last October or November, I think. I was trying to find the name of his agent, and googled "Manny Ramirez agent" and "Manny Ramirez trade demand" and got articles dated every single year since Manny joined the Sox for the 2001 season. Because this is a tune that has been played so often, it's hard to know how serious anyone is or how likely a trade is. We've lived through his waiver offering, the vetoed trade (with Nomar) for A-Rod and Magglio Ordonez, the speculation about Miguel Tejada, and the rumors about the blockbuster move to the Angels. My sense, though, is that this off-season will find Manny with a different team.

Manny has only two years left under contract, a fairly managable $38 million. Assuming his knee is actually ok (a pretty fair assumption), his production should not be an issue. He has been as productive and excellent a hitter as he's ever been this year. He's still one of the two or three best overall hitters in the AL. There are several teams who have both deep pockets and the need for serious offensive upgrades. The Angels fit that bill perfectly. Arte Moreno (the Angels' owner) has flat-out stated that he's going to make some noise and spend some money in the offseason. An outfield with Manny, Vlad Guerrero and Juan Rivera would be pretty damn noisy, I'd say. The Angels can offer pitching and high-end prospects in return. The Yankees have deep pockets, but they've got too many outfielders as it is. Still, if the Yanks don't win the World Series and A-Rod doesn't hit a home run in every at-bat, I wouldn't put an A-Rod for Manny challenge trade past these two teams. The Dodgers could use Manny, as could the Orioles, the White Sox, Seattle, the Cardinals, and the Cubs. Actually, pretty much everyone could use Manny, but those teams could both afford him and has legitimate resources to think that they could acquire him and justify the move.

The Sox are in a pretty good position in this situation. So many teams need offense, and the free-agent market isn't great for offense. If they do nothing, they've got no reason to think that Manny's production would drop off any- it really never has in the past when Manny's tried to get out. Maybe he should show up in a vintage Max Klinger dress. The Sox will have to replace his offense somehow, which is why a Tejada or A-Rod trade would make some sense.

My own strategy would be this- trade Manny to the Angels for Ervin Santana and two top-level prospects (maybe one if they take Manny's whole salary). Take the money you save on Manny's contract and get Alfonso Soriano. He's a free agent after this season (I believe). He has very quietly become a huge offense force. He's going to finish this year with 45 homers, 45 steals, and over 40 doubles. He's going to get close to 100 extra-base hits. I know he wants to play second base, but that's not going to happen. He's not a great defense fielder, but in left field at Fenway, the Monster will help him. It's helped Manny look pretty good, actually. It's probably going to take a minimum of five years to get Soriano, and I know the Sox don't like doing that sort of thing. The time may have come to shake things up a bit. Let the offers for Manny come in, and then let's roll the dice.

Friday, September 22, 2006

King David the LII

For a couple short moments last night, the Twins were actually in first place in the AL Central, leading the Tigers (who lost earlier that day to the Orioles) by percentage points. But then Big Papi showed up. And Josh Beckett showed up. And someone secretly replaced all-universe lefty Johan Santana with Folger's Crystals. And now those Twins? They're back in 2nd.

A very very good win last night, 6-0 over Johan and the Twins. Josh Beckett threw eight shutout innings. The Sox not only avoided getting swept for the season by the Twins, but also kept their tiny slim playoff hopes alive. Oh yeah, and Big Papi killed two pitches and now is all alone with the Red Sox single-season record.

Did I ever mention that my dog's registration tag number is #34? And that we call her Big Puppi (she's a St. Bernard) Did I mention that my six-year-old daughter has a pink "Ortiz 34" t-shirt that she wears to bed? Did I mention that I've had a man crush on this fella since I saw him at Spring Training in 2003? Did I mention we're both big Green Bay Packers fans? That both myself and his wife are from Wisconsin? Congratulations, Papi. This could literally have not happened to a better guy.

By the way- 52 converted into roman numerals (as in the title of this post notes) looks kind of lame, actually. No V's or X's or even M's. I think that 52 looks better. We'll have to see what happens when the Super Bowls get high. I would wager that Fox Sports would just modify the roman numeral system so that Super Bowl 50 becomes Super Bowl XXXXX. That just looks cool. Any guesses on the percentage of Americans that know that isn't the right number? That's right. LII%

Thursday, September 21, 2006

You know...good, bad, ugly, etcetera, etcetera

Jimmy Foxx was the youngest man to hit 500 career home runs. He was an unstoppable beast by the time he was 30. At 33? Pretty much washed up. After reaching 500 home runs in his early 30's he only hit 34 more homers in his career. I guess you can't call that a sad story, precisely, but it would have been interesting to see what he could have done with better health or dealing better with whatever made him fall off that cliff. Until last night, he alone held the Red Sox single-season home run record, with 50. Big Papi launched a Boof-ball last night to reach 50 of his own. With ten days left, I would suspect Jimmy's going to be in second place before too long. Watching Papi hit that (actually hearing it on the radio and then later watching the highlights) made it tough to believe that he isn't going to be the MVP. The way he just elevates the team and brings the crowd to a frenzy unlike any other player in the game- it's really something to see (well, again, to hear, and then see it repeated every fifteen minutes on NESN).

The other interesting thing about the 50th homer is the number of great Sox hitters that never got there. Jim Rice, Mo Vaughan, Yaz, Manny, and of course Ted Williams. None of them ever hit 50. But Papi did. He crushed them.

Last night's game could actually have been a good one. Thanks to Papi, the Sox were up 2-1 heading into the eighth inning. Schilling pitched a pretty good game for his first time back from the injury corps. Manny Delcarmen got through his work unscathed, as did Foulke. Then came Hansen. Oh my, Craig Hansen. This is the guy who was the unstoppable closer in college? This is the relief ace of our future? This is the guy we wouldn't let go of to have a shot at getting Roy Oswalt at the trade deadline? I'm just not sure what's going on here. It's got to be his head, right? It can't be his stuff. Where's Tewksbury with his Red Sox-logo couch? Hansen needs to find his happy place. Maybe sending him to Thailand to help with the coup would help his confidence.

I still say that Manny Delcarmen holds more near-term potential as a closer. He's got 45 strikeouts in about 53 innings, with only 16 walks. He's allowed a bit too many hits, but he doesn't seem to come unglued as often. I see him taking a larger step forward next year. Speaking of coming unglued, could it possibly be true that the Sox are considering Matt Clement for a closer candidate next year? If there was one pitcher we had that seemed psychologically least suited for that role, it's our friend with the chipmunk on his chin. My suspicion is that the Sox are floating that to convince other teams that we might actually try to use him next year and thus we can trade him for more value rather than just dumping him on someone and eating most of the salary.

So the Yankees, thanks to the Sox late-game collapse, clinched their ninth-straight division title. Remember who won in 1997? The Sox? Nope. The Jays? Nope. The Orioles. They went wire-to-wire behind Mike Mussina, Roberto "Ptooey" Alomar, Rafael Palmiero, and what was left of Cal Ripken. I lived in the DC area that year. That Davey Johnson is not managing in the majors right now is a huge loss for some team.

And now tonight, in order to save a perfect 0-6 season record against the Twins, all the Sox have to do is have Josh Beckett outpitch Johan Santana. Johan Santana who has been 31-2 with a 1.75 ERA in post-all star break pitching since 2004. Johan Santana who may win the first MLB pitching triple crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA) since Dwight Gooden in 1985. Johan Santana who is always #1 in my fantasy baseball draft (well, #2 after Papi). Johan Santana who probably deserves as much MVP consideration as Jeter or Ortiz, and more than Morneau or Mauer. That Johan Santana. Think Beckett can do it? I'm thinking no-hitter. Guess who I'm predicting throws it.

Oh, one more- Johan Santana who is a free agent after the 2008 season. Memo to John Henry: Starting saving pocket change today.

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

How do you root against a guy named Boof?

Last night the Sox lost an extremely uninteresting game to the Twins, 7-3. It marked the return of Tim Wakefield, who didn't have his good stuff working. The Sox have a chance to play spoiler in this series, but to be honest, I'd much rather see the Twins and Tigers in the playoffs than the White Sox or Angels or the other contenders. Obviously the Sox aren't going to win anything themselves this year. It doesn't much matter whether the Twins win the division and the Tigers get the wild card or vice-versa. They're both going to be in the post-season, and they're both really good stories. It's actually sort of comforting to see the White Sox in a position of possibly missing the playoffs. At least the Red Sox waited two years after their World Series win for their collapse.

So tonight will mark the return of Curt Schilling. He'll be on a pitch count of about 80, but it would be great to see him pitch effectively as the season winds down and to know he'll head into the off-season and next spring as more of a known quantity. The trouble is that he's pitching against a young guy from the Twins named Boof Bonser. I think, and I could be wrong about this, that Boof was his nickname (duh) but that he legally changed it to his first name. That's committment. That's a baseball guy you have to cheer for. This is the sort of committment that I'd like to see Trot (Christopher) Nixon or Coco (Covelli Loyce) Crisp or Chipper (Larry) Jones exercise. That way if any of these guys made the Hall of Fame, their plaque wouldn't have to say Larry "Chipper" Jones. Of all those guys, Chipper's probably the only one with a halfway decent chance.

Aside from those guys, there aren't a lot of good baseball nicknames anymore- in fact, those aren't really even that good. There are a few that harken back to the good old days of Dizzy, the Little Professor, Big Poison, Little Poison, Three-Finger, Dummy, the Splendid Splinter, the Iron Horse, the Big Train, the Georgia Peach, and the Flying Dutchman. Frank Thomas is the Big Hurt. David Ortiz is Big Papi. Travis Hafner is Pronk. Do you have to be a Designated Hitter to have a good nickname these days? Not always, but it helps. Randy Johnson is the Big Unit. Roger Clemens is Rocket. Keep your A-Rods and I-Rods and Man-Rams. Those aren't nicknames. Those are lazy sportswriters in action. We need more good nicknames. Only The Big Unit made a list of the top baseball nicknames of all time (this was an espn.com poll a couple of years ago- just google it). Chris Berman can only do so much- and he deals more in volume than in quality- not so many of his catch on.

We've got to be able to come up with something for Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Craig Hansen, or Manny Delcarmen. They're still young enough for us to have something stick with them. If we can't have playoff baseball in Boston, at least we can lead the league in great nicknames. Some color for the fall.

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

And Down Goes Papelbon

The games this weekend against the Yankees, as marginally satisfying as they were, also continued to mark the apparently neverending disappearance of Red Sox players to the injury list. Kevin Youkilis left the game on Sunday with a jammed shoulder. Wily Mo Pena paved the way to the DL for Y oukilis when he also went down, in Saturday's game with a right quad strain. It seems more likely than not that we've seen the last of Manny Ramirez this season, and I wouldn't hold my breath on seeing much from Schilling, Kason Gabbard, or Keith Foulke.

Perhaps most significantly, they made the official announcement that Jonathan Papelbon was done for the year. When he was taken out of the game a couple of weeks ago, it looked like he just pulled a muscle in his upper arm or shoulder. As it turned out, he actually pulled his arm out of his shoulder socket. Now that is bringing the heat, my friends. He announced that his off-season would be dedicated to strengthening the muscles in his shoulder- an injury and course of action that Jerry Remy actually declared might be beneficial to Papelbon in the long-term. He claimed that young players frequently neglect rigorous off-season workouts because they're young studs and don't need to be bothered by it. But the injury will force Papelbon to concentrate on his pitching strength and mechanics throughout the winter, and could return much stronger in the spring. That would be a welcome development.

The other interesting thing that Papelbon said was that he was targeting a return to the starting rotation in 2007 rather than the bullpen. This topic has been the subject of interesting debate on talk-radio, chat rooms, and stathead websites. I'll link to a couple because they're probably the best on the topic. First, Nate Silver in Baseball Prospectus argues rather convincingly that an elite-level closer (the sort of year Papelbon had places him easily in this class) is every bit as valuable as a well-above average pitcher. Using the concepts of "replacement level," and "inning leverage" Silver argues that in order to be as valuable as an elite 75-inning closer, Papelbon would have to pitch approximately 200 innings at an ERA of about 3.70. This would make him sort of akin to Curt Schilling or Barry Zito. That's a tough call. Would you rather have a Mariano Rivera/Eric Gagne type lights-out closer or a legitimate #2 starter? The big question is whether Papelbon could convert his incredible success in closing games to a successful role in the rotation. Would he have considerably less success the second or third time through a lineup? Does he have enough pitch variety, stamina, and strength do stretch that out?

Responding to these statements, David Gassko of The Hardball Times takes Silver to task for some sloppy assumptions. He argues that replacement level isn't the best way to figure it. Replacement level means you take Papelbon's performance level and then replace him with a guy you could pick up virtually for free off the waiver wire or the free-agent market. Think Bryan Corey or Rudy Seanez. A reliever that would give you about a 5.00 ERA. Of course Papelbon's much more valuable than that replacement. What Gassko argues is that the Sox, or any other team, wouldn't replace Papelbon with Seanez. They'd replace him with Timlin, or Delcarmen, and everyone else in the bullpen would move up one seat. Timlin is above replacement-level, and so is Delcarmen. The new replacement-level guy would be at the end of the bullpen bench, where he belongs. The difference would be between Papelbon and Timlin, not Papelbon and Seanez. The result of this is that Papelbon wouldn't have to be as good as Schilling or Zito in the rotation, but only as good as Wakefield, Corey Lidle, or Josh Beckett- about a 4.75 ERA, just slightly better than league-average. There seems little doubt that Papelbon has got the poise and stuff to be at least a 4.75 pitcher.

The truth, I think, lies somewhere in between these two articles. I don't think that Papelbon is totally irreplaceable in the bullpen- even as tremendous as he's been. If I had to pick his replacement, I think I'd go with Delcarmen over Hansen (there's not likely to be much available in the trade/free agent market this off-season). Delcarmen's got strikeout stuff, he's got a mid-90's fastball and an excellent curve when it's on. Hansen still needs to miss more bats. I do, however, think that Papelbon would need to be an above-average pitcher in the rotation to justify the move. A #2 or #3 guy with #1 upside, maybe. There is no question that much of the Red Sox success this year was due to their success in close games. That gets laid largely at the feet of Papelbon. The emotional lift at the end of the game that the team gets when he runs out of the bullpen is an important point that is hard to quantify. I'd hope he can provide that same sort of feeling coming out of the dugout every fifth day.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Three out of four ain't thrilling

I know that I could probably take more joy in this. Over two baseball-packed days, the Sox took three of four games from the Yankees. They played good, fundamental baseball, and their pitching was actually pretty good against a really scary lineup. David Murphy got his first major league home run, Mike Timlin showed that he has something left in the tank, Dustin Pedroia got a hit off Randy Johnson in what was possibly the largest height-imbalance in recent history, and the Yankees didn't get to clinch the division in their house against the Sox.

As much as there was to appreciate this weekend, it just lacked the intensity that a mid-September Red Sox-Yankees series should command. I think that the Yankee fans sensed that. The only real emotion they showed this weekend was booing David Ortiz for some blown-out-of-proportion comments he made about the MVP. Every time he came up, the fans booed, and every time Jeter came up, the crowd went out of its way to kiss his butt and chant "MVP! MVP!" Is that the best that we can come up with? That's the only rallying point left on this season? Well, that's sort of correct. The whole thing is rather sad, actually.

I got a bitter start to the weekend's games on Saturday- we were in the car and had AM-880 on, which is the WCBS station out of New York. Don't look at me, that's one of my wife's pre-set stations. It's her car. I think she likes listening to the New York traffic reports. At any rate, the broadcasters went to a remote reporter doing a piece from the Bronx, where the Yankees were having their annual Fan Fest prior to the games. The guy described all of the events and attractions, one of which was a dunk tank. Inside the dunk tank was "a guy wearing a Red Sox uniform. He's really wet."

That just made me sad and a little angry. I know- I KNOW that it probably says something more about me than about Yankee fans, but when I hear about Yankee fans, or see someone wearing a Yankees hat or jersey- my first thought is that they're probably a bad person. I automatically assume that they're a morally void, mindless drone who cares nothing about baseball in general and only worships the fact that the Yankees can buy as many wins as necessary, every year.

I'm wrong, I know I'm wrong- but not always, and not all the time, not completely. I can forgive anyone who grew up in the Bronx, or even in Manhattan- they didn't have much choice. I can understand foreigners or immigrants who love the Yankees. They represent everything big about America, both good and bad, but always confident and usually victorious. It's not until you move here that you see the not-always flattering underbelly. Though I haven't found most Yankees fans, both new and old, to be the most critical thinkers about their team or baseball in general, so they might not ever realize what the presence and behavior of the Yankees means to baseball.

Overall, I think it just struck me as being in bad taste. Dunking a Red Sox player when the Sox are 10 or 11 games out in the playoff race. They'd be better dunking a Mets guy, or a A's guy, or even a Tigers guy. I'm glad I wasn't watching it on TV- I can just imagine that the guy in the dunk tank was wearing a Jon Lester jersey.

Friday, September 15, 2006

Waking up again

I watched most of the game last night- a 6-5 win over the Orioles. All things considered, it was a pretty good win. It was the kind of win that had it happened in May or June, it would have convinced us that this team had heart and would never say die. They fell behind 5-3 after four innings and slowly gained ground, with the bullpen holding the line. Unfortunately, this is mid-September, and it's hard to get psyched about the win.

Incidentally, this win makes us, I believe 14-2 against the Orioles this year. That, you've got to admit, is a huge benefit of the unbalanced schedule. I know we have to face the Yankees and Blue Jays more, and they give the Sox problems, but you get to fatten up on the O's. On the balance sheet, the Sox are actually 12 games over .500 against the Orioles and 2 games under .500 against the rest of the league. If it wasn't for the O's, we'd be a losing team. So today's thank-you goes out to Peter Angelos. Thanks, you stingy, control-hungry, megalomaniac. Oh, geez. There goes my chances of working for him. I gotta stop doing that.

What I have started to realize, as the Sox fall completely off the face of the earth, is that I am becoming a baseball fan again. I'm still a Sox fan, of course, but for some reason that doesn't take up quite as much of my emotional energy lately. And when you look around baseball, there are some exciting things happening in these last few weeks. The AL Central and wild-card race is actually pretty cool. The Tigers, Twins, and White Sox are all fighting for two playoff places. It's not at all inconceivable that the Tigers, after being on a 100-win pace all year, fall out of the playoffs completely. The Twins are only a game back, and the White Sox are only three back. The Twins also lead the Wild Card by two. The Tigers have three more against the White Sox, who also have three more against the Twins.

The National League West is also really tight, with the Dodgers only a half-game up on the Padres and three up on San Fransisco. They all pretty much stink compared to the top eight American League teams, but a race is a race. The Padres, in turn, lead Philly and San Fran by 2.5 in the Wild Card, wth Florida only 3.5 back. For my money, the Marlins are the best story in baseball this year. I don't think they'll make the playoffs, but if they finish over .500 and Jeffrey Loria still fires Joe Girardi as manager, Bud Selig should immediately take ownership away from him. That would be a crime.

I know you're all waiting for predictions (and now that I have my first comments- thanks guys- I know someone will be reading to rub it in my face when I'm wrong), so here they are. Minnesota will win the AL Central and the White Sox will get the Wild Card. The Tigers will fall just short of a completely astounding season. The Padres will pass the Dodgers in the West, but the Dodgers will settle for the Wild Card. Jim Leyland and Joe Girardi will win Managers of the Year. I'll make the rest of my predictions later. The MVPs and Cy Youngs, as well as playoff results, still need more input.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

So...anything exciting happen when I was gone?

Welcome back Timmy! It's great to have you back, Wake. It's a real boost to our team to have you back in the starting rotation! I hope the rib's healed up. Yeah? Great. What? What's the latest? What's been going on with the team since you've been on the DL? Well, um...it's like this...

Tim Wakefield pitched last night for the first time in 49 games (isn't that his uniform number?) and lost 4-0 to the Orioles, who appear to have a pitching stud in the making in Eric Bedard. When Wakefield left the team in July to let his cracked ribs heal, the Red Sox were 3.5 games up in the East, and had the second-best record in baseball. In the 49 games since, the Sox have gone 18-31 and have fallen completely into irrelevance. I know we've argued that correlation is not causality, but in a post a couple of weeks ago, I did try to pin this free-fall at least in significant part to Wakefield's disappearance. He wouldn't have reversed the trend, but he sure as hell would have saved some of the pitching staff from their complete collapse.

It was good to see him back- not in vintage form, but at least an approximation of where he left off. It was nice of the offence to pick up where they left off with Wake, though. Before he left, he had as many starts and as many innings pitched as Beckett. Beckett had an ERA over 5, and Wake had one in the low 4's. Beckett was something like 11-3 and Wake was 7-8. Thanks, hitters! I suppose that at least this is one way that you can connect the fates of Tim Wakefield and Roger Clemens.

Meanwhile, the season continues its downward slide. I noticed this the other night during the first game with the Orioles- when Kason Gabbard had to come out of the game. I know that every team has injuries, but it just gets worse and worse. Gabbard had some sort of back or side problem. It was announced that Schilling will probably not pitch against the Yankees, with an apparently "sluggish" arm. Coco- who seems to be the only one actually hitting these days- looks like he's in tremendous pain with every swing of the bat on that heavily-taped finger. Wily Mo got hit on his surgically-repaired wrist, possibly re-damaging his hammate bone. I know that Terry Francona is trying to keep the guys motivated and playing the game the right way- he was quoted as saying "the season doesn't wind down. It comes to a screeching halt," meaning that you don't take it easy, even if you're out of the playoff race. But seriously, at some point, these boys need to just call it a day. Otherwise, you might see more than the season come to a screeching halt.

Meanwhile- over in the AL Central, things may have taken a serious late-season turn for the Twins. They had been surging, closing the gap on the Detroit Tigers and pulling ahead of the White Sox for the wild-card lead. Last night, though, rookie phenom (and the reason my fantasy team made the playoffs this year) Francisco Liriano had to shut it down for the season. He had been 12-3 with an ERA around 2.20, but elbow problems will shelve him until next spring. I don't know if this is enough to turn the tide completely and embolden the White Sox to pull back in front, but even if the Twins make the playoffs, this has got to seriously affect their chances. As recently as last week, you could make a reasonable argument that with Santana and Liriano pitching three games in a five-game series or four in a seven-game series, the Twins could legitimately go all the way. Without Liriano, well, would you bet the farm on Brad Radke? He's a solid pitcher, but he ain't exactly Schilling to Santana's Johnson...

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Old Fenwaysides

This week's Sports Illustrated has a ranking of major league baseball stadiums (stadia, I suppose) for their facilities, value, and overall fan experience. Where did "America's Most Beloved Ballpark" end up? Try 28th. Out of 30. Here's the quote:

"Let's get this straight. Fenway is impossible to drive to, the seats are uncomfortable and/or obstructed and it costs a kidney -- or two -- to get in and eat. What, exactly, is the draw? Ah, yes, the history, the passion, the atmosphere of Fenway. But is that really worth more at Fenway than at any other park in the league? To the fans of Boston, who continually pack the place, it must be. And, truth be told, every student of the game should see the place at least once in his or her life. But to wring every last dollar from one of the majors' most loyal fan bases is not merely hard-nosed business, it borders on the unethical."

As soon as I was done being outraged, I had to admit, they've got a point. In my one visit to Fenway (late July of this year), I was struck by how dungeon-like the interior of the park was and how cramped and, let's face it, smelly, it was with all of the fans packed in there. As an urban planner, I have to disagree with the complaints about the location or ease of access. There is nothing finer in this world than a ballpark right in the middle of a neighborhood. Keep your football-stadium sea of parking. Give me walk-up crowds from a hundred side streets anyday. The price of tickets? Well, that's just the market. A successful team in a broadly-based, affluent market will command a better price, that's just the economic reality. In fact, I'd even go so far as to say that the Red Sox fans understand what their higher ticket prices mean. We don't have access to the media market that the Yankees do, or even the demographics and population that the Yankees do. If charging a little more (or hell, a lot more) means that the Sox can be more competitive with the Yankees (at least in most years), they're willing to do that.

As for the Fenway experience- I understand it has changed quite a bit. In the three or four years since the Henry/Lucchino/Werner group took over, the facelift to many aspects of Fenway has been remarkable. The Monster Seats, the right-field roof boxes, and other interior changes have improved parts of the experience. But I do have to acknowledge that the experience for the average fan (maybe even a slightly overweight fan- which these days is average) isn't terrific from a viewer standpoint. It's sort of an uncomfortable experience, but is part of the New England tradition of suffering in our religious experiences. We try to temper our ecstatic experience of a Sox game at Fenway with a fair dollop of pain.

I have no doubt that the ownership group will continue to make changes to try to improve the in-stadium experience for fans. I hope they will, but I suspect that much of the potential changes have already become reality. There's only so much that can be done there. They have a small footprint and some very old infrastructure to contend with. Further, there aren't a lot of other good options in a very densely-packed city of Boston.

I also noticed that a couple of weeks ago, it was announced that the ownership group received a $30 million tax credit for Historic Preservation from the State of Massachusetts. For preserving Fenway Park. Not only are they pulling in record amounts of money from the fans, but they're also making hay from the State for staying at Fenway. I wonder, however, at what point the changes to Fenway start interfering with their tax credit. At some point, adding seating or reconfiguring structural elements to add fan revenue jeopardizes your State preservation credits. I couldn't put my finger on that point, but I'll bet you Larry Lucchino's got a pretty good idea.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Just Manny being underappreciated

Yesterday’s discussion of David Ortiz’ chances of winning the MVP got me to thinking. Ortiz has a legitimate case for MVP this year, based on his power numbers and his unreal clutch hitting. It would actually be hard to imagine that a guy with five huge walk-off hits this year who will also lead the league in home runs (with 50+) and RBI (with probably 135+) would NOT win. Well, let’s also remember that Mark McGwire didn’t win when he hit 70 home runs. Sammy Sosa won.

But Ortiz isn’t my point today. My point today was that I mentioned yesterday that Ortiz isn’t even the most productive hitter on his own team. Manny Ramirez is. This is what I’ve been thinking about. If anyone has an argument for getting screwed out of MVPs, it’s probably Manny. It’s funny that we have to frequently remind ourselves what an incredible hitter he his, given his spacey personality and outward ambivalence. This guy, though, could possibly go down as the greatest hitter EVER not to win an MVP. Consider the following facts.

He is one of the top four hitters of his generation, without question. Only Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas have a higher adjusted career OPS+ than Manny (Albert Pujols does as well, but he’s ten years younger than Manny). Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, and Jason Giambi all trail behind Manny on this list. For those of you scratching your heads, adjusted OPS+ means first taking his on-base percentage (times on base/plate appearances) and his slugging percentage (total bases/at bats) and adding them together. This gives you OPS. A number of .800 is decent, .900 is great, and a career 1.000 OPS guy is a Hall of Famer. All these guys are upper .900’s to low 1.000’s. The OPS+ means how your OPS compares to the average player during your time. Further, they also adjust it so the numbers can be compared across eras (Babe Ruth era vs. Mickey Mantle era vs. Jim Rice era vs. Sammy Sosa era). If you’re average, your OPS+ is 100. If you stink, you’re probably around 65-75. If you kick ass, you’re around 140-150. Manny has been at 156 for his career. This puts him right there with Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Joe DiMaggio for his career. That’s really rarified air.

Back to this era. The other five guys who are in Manny’s league for hitting in this generation- Bonds, Pujols, Thomas, Bagwell, Giambi- have all won MVPs. Bonds and Thomas have won multiple awards, and no doubt Pujols will win multiples (possibly getting his second this year). And Manny? He’s never finished higher than third- even in a year he had 160 RBI. Even in a year he hit over 30 HR, 100 RBI AND won the batting title with a .349 average. He’s like a supercharged version of Eddie Murray or Rafael Palmiero (without the steroid suspicion, either).

Want more numbers? If you had to bet on any one player to break Lou Gehrig’s hallowed record of 13 consecutive years with 100+ RBI, I’d recommend putting your money on Manny. He’s just reached his 9th consecutive year, and if he didn’t have to spend all of 1997 batting sixth in the lineup behind guys like Thome, Matt Williams, and Dave Justice, he’d have had more than 88 RBI, and be on his 12th consecutive year. He’s also got 11 years over 30 home runs.

Manny suffers from two things, I think: first, the popular perception that he’s a flake, which hurts his standing with MVP voters, who like drama and intensity. Generally, the only drama Manny creates is localized to the overheated Boston media who get in an uproar every time his hamstring is sore, or when he’s demanding his annual off-season trade. Second, he suffers from being uniformly excellent and therefore a great year from Pudge Rodriguez or Jason Giambi or Vladimir Guerrero is only average for Manny. It’s expected.

Manny’s going to be a first-ballot hall of famer. I hope he goes in wearing a Red Sox cap, though I’d have to say I frequently ask myself “what if the 2003 trade did go through, and we got A-Rod and Magglio Ordonez for Manny and Nomar?” (I may address that in a later blog). I hope that Manny does get his due eventually, because I think he will probably be the greatest hitter never to win the MVP. Well, since they’ve had the MVP, of course.

Monday, September 11, 2006

Back for more bull

I would apologize for my recent 3-day absence and hiatus from blogging due to my presence at the wedding of my youngest sister, but I'm pretty sure that everyone understands. Pretty much everyone who has ever read the blog was there in Cincinnati and thus was too busy drinking to worry about reading blogs. Congratulations Ann and Ryan.

I didn't get to watch any of the games this weekend, catching only the scores and the last few minutes of Sunday's radio broadcast. That was a nice way to wrap up the weekend, a good 9-3 win over the Royals, highlighted by another strong starting outing for Julian Tavarez and Big Papi's AL-best 48th homer and 127th RBI. For me, that made it a good weekend, even though they blew two of three (and five of the last six!) to the Royals. That pretty much makes two things official: the Sox season is done (they're now fourth in the wild card) and the AL Central is the best division in baseball. When you've got the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox all battling for the playoffs, Cleveland who is just a solid starter away from returning to last year's scary form, and the Royals who can kill the Sox 85% of the time, you're in a serious division.

After the game, Papi gave the press some extended comments about the MVP race, arguing (correctly) that the Sox late-summer collapse shouldn't doom his MVP chances. He's absolutely right. His timing is also correct, because he correctly gauged that his MVP chances are pretty much doomed. If he couldn't win it last year, when the Sox were much better overall, he won't win it this year. My prediction is that Derek Jeter will win it, with Papi in the top five. Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Johan Santana, Travis Hafner, and Manny Ramirez will all be in the top ten. Does Papi deserve to feel screwed out of another MVP? Well, sort of.

MVP voters are getting better, but there are still enough traditionalists to keep the award away from a designated hitter for a couple more years. Unless Papi singlehandedly kept the Sox in contention all year and they made the playoffs, he wouldn't have gotten it. A larger (somewhat overlooked) point is that Papi's not even the best DH in the league. Travis Hafner is. He produces more runs per game (and overall) than Papi. Papi's got Manny Ramirez for protection (and Manny actually has been a better overall hitter than Papi this year), and Travis Hafner's got nobody of that caliber protecting his spot in the lineup. If you look at Runs Created or RC/9, Manny and Hafner are the best hitters in the league. Neither of them will sniff the MVP this year.

For total contributions (that means dragging your butt on to the field, Papi), I have to acknowledge that this is going to be Jeter's year. He's at the top of the list in Win Shares (ask Bill James to explain this one- I only read the description once and was convinced it was a decent metric, so then I promptly forgot how they calculate it). Jeter's never going to be a true gold-glove shortstop, but his total package has be terrific this year. Yesterday's offensive heroics should help ice his case. I know, he's got A-Rod, Damon, Giambi, Abreu, and Matsui/Sheffield when healthy in the lineup. They're actually all probably more FEARED hitters than Jeter, but he's been, overall, the best player out there this year.

So Papi, this isn't your year either. I'd still vote for you. But then again, there's more than one good reason why I don't get a vote for this.

Thursday, September 07, 2006

Chicken and Egg

I can't remember the line exactly, and I'm too lazy to google it. There was a scene in the wonderful movie "High Fidelity" when John Cusack wonders whether his life is emotionally messed-up because he listens to pop music or instead if he listens to pop music because his life is emotionally messed-up. It's probably a little bit of both- a nice, self-sustaining feedback loop of misery.

I can identify. I can identify not only with the pop-music element of his question, but also with this Red Sox component. Am I a crazy, obsessed, superstitious data junkie because I love the Red Sox, or do I love the Red Sox because I am a crazy, obsessed, superstitious data junkie? Well, there you go. Chicken and egg.

Yesterday, I was wondering what I could do to help the Sox continue their winning ways through excellent pitching from unexpected places. I, of course, helped create that winning streak through my criticism of the pitchers that would then go on to pitch wonderfully. Last night, Kyle Snyder pitched in an attempt to complete the sweep against the White Sox. The trouble was that I already had criticized him and he already pitched well last week. I didn't know how to keep the superstition going. I'm sorry- I blew that one. And then Snyder blew it, allowing twenty-five runs in an inning and a third (or something like that).

The Red Sox problem may also have something to do with scoring three runs or less in 14 of their last 16 games, but I'd prefer to think that it has more to do with the cosmic forces that I helped throw out of whack yesterday. My only hope at redemption here is to really tear into Kevin Jarvis (who is that again?) or Josh Beckett in advance of their starts against the Royals this weekend. That's worth a try. It shouldn't be that hard for Kevin Jarvis, anyway. The guy's only 0-2 with an ERA over nine. That's one run per inning he pitches. What does that translate to in Royal runs? If he can keep them under five runs in six innings, I think he's doing well. I am not going to hold my breath, however.

Finally, some good wishes and powerful soul force (satyagraha, for all of you Gandhi illiterates) go out to Jon Lester and his family. His press conference and his maturity in facing a very serious situation makes me believe that he'll pull through his fine. I'll be looking forward to him anchoring the back of the rotation in 2007. Get well soon, Jon.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

For my next trick, I'll need a volunteer...

I took one statistics class in graduate school. Following that, I read enough of Bill James and the Baseball Prospectus website to be dangerously intelligent-sounding when discussing baseball statistics (or other types for that matter). All of this tells me that correlation is not causality. Just because two things happen in proximity to each other and seem somehow linked, that doesn't mean that one caused the other.

All the same, I'm pretty sure that I deserve some credit for three of the Red Sox last four victories. I don't want adulation, a thank-you call from Larry Lucchino, or even a mention on the Clubhouse Insider. I just want to know that I've contributed. If you've been following my last few entries (this means you, Mom), I have called out and openly mocked three starting pitchers in succession. I mocked:
1) Kyle Snyder before his Blue Jays start. He went out and pitched seven scoreless innings.
2) Julian Tavarez before his White Sox start. He pitched six-plus innings of gritty ball, ultimately getting charged with two runs.
3) Kason Gabbard before his White Sox start last night. He, somewhat unbelievably, given his 0-3 record and ERA north of six, pitched seven scoreless innings against one of the two-or-three best offenses in the game.

How do we explain this? I know a journalist will tell you that two such phenomena are a coincidence and three are a trend. Statisticians or anyone with a brain in their head will tell you that this is a stupid thing to talk about. I agree with that, as I flatter myself with beliving in the existence of my own gray matter. I am also, however, a baseball fan. I am a Red Sox baseball fan. I have watched "Bull Durham" more than ten times. I know that you never mess with a winning streak. I want to continue to help the team.

The question is this: How do I do this? I've never had this sort of mystical power over anything before (although you should see me toss popcorn up in the air and catch it in my mouth. Pretty remarkable). I don't want to mess this up for everyone. My problem is this: Kyle Snyder pitches again tonight. I've already mocked his pitching ability. I don't think I can do that again to the same effect. Should I change course and compliment him? Do I need to wait until Josh Beckett takes his turn in the rotation to mock another pitcher? Should I focus on a reliever instead? Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez or Craig Hansen? Who is gonna be the target of my scorn and thus keep this highly improbable playoff hope alive? I'm open to any helpful suggestions from anyone who knows more about the mysteries and power of superstition than I do.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Put me in, Coach.

I may have some mystical powers here that I didn't fully understand until last night. A couple of days ago, I said some negative things about Kyle Snyder and then he goes right out and has a brilliant outing. Yesterday afternoon, I did the same thing before Julian Tavarez' start against the White Sox. He goes out and pitches six-plus innings of brilliance against one of the AL's best lineups. Who is pitching tonight? Kason Gabbard? What a bum! He's a...why, he's positively a belly itcher! As you know, we don't want that. We want, instead, a pitcher.

Last night's win was a great one. It wasn't enough, at least for me, to believe that the Sox can climb back into the hunt. Sure, we got Varitek and Nixon and Wily Mo and Alex Gonzalez and Manny back. Sure, we're getting Papi back as early as tonight. Sure, the pitching looked pretty good- Manny Delcarmen and Mike Timlin both did a fine job.

The best part of last night's game, for me, was Carlos Pena. Duh. That's not a hard choice, given that he hit the walk-off home run, his first as a member of the Red Sox and also hit basically as a defensive replacement for Kevin Youkilis. I'm a lot happier, though, than I would have been had that homer been hit by John Olerud or Doug Mientkiewicz or J.T. Snow or our other recent defensive replacement 1B. The reason, of course, is twofold. First, Carlos Pena is in need of redemption. He used to be this huge prospect- with Oakland and with Detroit, he was supposed to be this defensive wizard/slugger that never quite panned out. This year, he scuffled and found himself in the Yankees' minor league system. This is a big chance for him to redeem himself.

The second reason is of course that he's a local kid. As someone without a lick of athletic ability, even I know that hitting an extra-innings, walk-off home run for your hometown team is hard-wired into every boy's brain. It may be into girls' brains also, but I'll only speak for my sex at this point. Pena hitting that home run took me instantly back to the side yard of my old house on South 38th Street in Milwaukee, mumbling some play-by-play words to set up the situation and then tossing up the whiffle ball to myself and smacking it with the skinny yellow plastic bat. I can only imagine what the noise of the crowd's reaction as he trotted around the bases must have felt like- heck, I was only doing this for an imaginary Brewers crowd. Carlos Pena got to do it before a real Fenway crowd. No wonder he told Tina Cervasio, "it's a really good day for the Pena family."

Monday, September 04, 2006

Insidious

Last week, there were some feature stories in the news about how Red Sox tickets- pretty much unattainable for the last three years or so, are suddenly really easy to get. The Sox streak of home game sellouts may actually be at risk. When I heard that, I was dismissive. There's no way, I thought, that the Sox fan base would just completely jump ship like that. A market like the Sox front office has developed doesn't just suddenly become elastic like that. The Sox had become like the Green Bay Packers, or like cigarettes. The demand, the loyal base, was secure.

Then this weekend came around, and I have to say I'm beginning to understand the phenomenon, at least in this case. The fall winds started blowing, and the smell of the baseball playoffs was not among them. It was Labor Day weekend, which in this part of the state means the Woodstock Fair and all of its overpriced rides, oddly ubiquitous plastic Spiderman balloons and fair food (I mean "Fair" food, not "fair" in the poor-excellent scale. It is, of course, both poor and excellent at the same time- that's why it's Fair food). The New England Patriots season is starting soon. The UConn Huskies basketball season is just around the corner. The elections are coming up. School just started for the kids. In other words, there's other stuff to think about. Maybe going to a game isn't your top priority all of a sudden.

But who are these fair-weather fans? Do they deserve to be a part of Red Sox Nation? If I had the financial wherewithal, I'd like to think I'd be heading out to Fenway on a regular basis, even in this slump. I'm still a die-hard fan, right? I'm the one that just got the Sox tattoo, right?

I'll be honest, though- this weekend, I followed the games, but it was with something just beyond a passing interest. I didn't sit riveted. The games sort of lent themselves to a passing interest, though. They split four games with the Blue Jays, and slipped a bit in the division. The highlights for the weekend were certainly Kyle Snyder's brilliant pitching on Friday- seven innings, no runs- and the return of Varitek, Nixon, and Gonzalez. Wily Mo Pena made an appearance, and there are rumors of the returns of both Manny and Papi. To say the least, this offense has completely tanked without those two in the lineup. That may actually be a point in Papi's favor when the MVP vote happens.

The low points were more injuries. Jon Lester has cancer. I understand it's the good type of cancer- a very treatable lymphoma- but that's really like saying someone has the good type of cancer. Seriously. Also, Jonathan Papelbon's arm may be falling off, and Curt Schilling has a boo-boo on his lat (what the hell is a lat?) and is missing tonight's start. In his place will be...Julian Tavarez. Let's file that under bad news for now.

The larger point is that all of this mediocrity, these injuries, the utter listlessness of the Sox team right now brings Vaclav Havel to mind. What, it doesn't make you think of Havel? Really? Hmm...

Well, anyway, it makes me think of Havel. In his role as a dissident/playwright (and maybe even a bit as President of the Czech Republic) he brilliantly described the "insidious nature of totalitarian states." He talked about how the little inconveniences, the tiny incremental encroachments on privacy or decision-making, very quickly piled up and became the accepted, unquestioned norm for the general public. When we hear about people in communist countries waiting six hours in a line to get toilet paper, we were appalled. How could this be? How can they take it? It made us so angry and righteous we wanted to jump right out of our cars and hug the person behind us in the mile-long drive-through line at Dunkin' Donuts and praise the lord we live in a free country.

The point is that these things can sneak up on you, and little things- collectively and gradually- can cause a change in mindset and view of the world. Just last week, I was outraged that Sox fans could be so inconstant as to abandon their precious Fenway tickets at the first sniff of a lost season. I gotta tell you, though- after this weekend with its uninspiring baseball and its very inspiring sausage-and-pepper grinders and ferris wheels, it's not such a hard thing to understand at all.

Friday, September 01, 2006

The pendulum

This must be what it is like to be a Royals fan. Or a Pirates fan. Or even a Devil Rays fan. You get so used to losing that a decent win like the one last night was surprising- even delightful. After six losses in a row, a miserable 2-7 road trip, the Sox limped home to face the Blue Jays. First up was...Roy Halliday. This looked like a terrible, terrible mismatch. The Sox, having just traded David Wells (as predicted), were starting Lenny DiNardo or possibly Julian Tavarez.

I got home around the third inning and turned on the TV just in time to see the Sox have the bases loaded up on Halliday with nobody out in the bottom of the fourth. My thought at the time was "this is where Halliday loses out on his second Cy Young." I fully expected Javy to knock one out. Instead, of course, he hits into a double play, but the lead runner comes in the back door, and the Sox are on their way to an improbable victory.

Halliday did ultimately give up six runs in seven innings. While the Blue Jays are pretty much out of it, they have virtually as much hope as the Sox in getting into a playoff hunt. They needed their ace to shut down the struggling Red Sox. He blew his chance. Sure, he got out of that fourth inning all right, but giving up six runs to that lineup- to my thinking, I think he did throw away his Cy Young chances right there. If Minnesota keeps it up, I'd put my money on Johan Santana. The darkhorse candidate is Chien-Mien Wang. As much as you hate to give credit to a Yankee player, he's be incredibly solid for them this year- he's pretty much their #1 guy. Makes you wonder what they needed to spend all that money on Mussina, Johnson, Wright, Pavano, and all the rest for.

The greatest moment of games like the one last night, for me anyway, was when Papelbon comes out of the bullpen. It's not the fact that it means the game has a good chance of getting sewn up, and it's not the raucus, "Wild Thing"-singing crowd. It's the fat security guard. This old guy has been assigned to the bullpen all year. I don't know if he's been the bullpen guard forever- I've only noticed him this year. When Papelbon has finished his warmups, the fat guy opens the bullpen door for him, and stands out of his way. As Papelbon passes by him, they exchange a quick fist-bump. The two of them glance at each other in a way that is both confident and conspiratorial. It's a wonderful moment. That is a definite advantage of having so many cameras at the park. You get to share this with them.

It's a sign, though, that I am a completely hopeless fan. After last night's victory, I was thinking- well, we've got a ten-game homestand. We're getting Trot and Varitek back in a couple of days. Wakefield should follow along shortly. We can rip off eight or nine more wins in a row. This isn't over yet. I started getting excited. Someone needs to talk me down again. I'm guessing that someone is going to be Kyle Snyder. His reality session will commence at 7:05 tonight.