Outskirts of Red Sox Nation

Thursday, November 30, 2006

Southpaw from the Far East

The Sox are going to announce officially this afternoon that they've signed Hideki Okajima. Reports are for a two or three year deal, probably at somewhere around $3 million a year. I haven't seen any translations or projections of how his very good strikeout numbers might be against MLB hitters, but I'm confident that this is far more than just a move to find a best friend and sake-drinking buddy for Matsuzaka...Do we have any numbers of how Matsui did against him back in Japan? That's a research project for me this weekend.

Full Pen, Empty Belli

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, Manny Ramirez...and on and on. The big names have been bounced around like, in the words of the Swedish Chef, "poppin' corn in threeeee-deeee!" This has already been a very exciting offseason (despite the fact that actually no real moves have been made) and promises to get even more interesting. There is one thing that the Sox need to address, however, that could be nearly as important as any other- getting a backup catcher. With the ultimate realization that Doug Mirabelli's ability to catch a knuckleball just is not worth his complete absence of bat speed, the Sox are in the market for what is probably the greatest job in the world.

A backup catcher plays one day a week, maybe two, if you count pinch-hitting. He gets to hang out on the bench and in the clubhouse with the ballclub every day, goofing around with very little responsibilities. In Boston, with Varitek, there probably isn't even much game-planning or strategizing to do- Tek probably takes care of that. And hell, if you're just catching Wakefield, it's not as if you've got to decide whether to throw an inside slider or some high heat. I wonder if they even have signs for Wakefield. For all of this, you get paid somewhere between $600,000 and $1.5 million. Even if you occasionally embarrass yourself by missing a wicked knuckler, you're still making three to seven times what the President of the United States earns annually. That's a sweet gig.

But who will the Sox turn to? There was a lot of talk about Greg Zaun, who was probably the best-hitting backup catcher out there. After some false starts, he ultimately re-signed with the Blue Jays. Rod Barajas, the temp-to-hire catcher from the Rangers, is available now. It was thought that he would sign with the Jays, but that fell apart for some reason- my guess is salary. Barajas is probably the best available option, but he made $3.2 million with Texas last year, and still probably thinks of himself as at least a quasi-starter, or maybe super-backup, and may not like taking a pay cut to under $2 million. If he lingers long enough on the market, the Sox may be able to snatch him up. That's a tough game of chicken, though, because the Sox really do need someone decent. Todd Pratt, Mike Lieberthal, Mike Piazza(!), Sandy Alomar Jr., and Chris Widger are still out there, but they're all old, too expensive, or not likely to accept a backup role. Two-time gold glove winner Bengie Molina is still available. He had expressed some displeasure with the Blue Jays earlier this year over his lack of playing time, and the resigning of Zaun might make him less likely to rejoin the Jays. It would also, however, make him unlikely to join the Sox, unless we can work out some sort of division of labor that might help Tek rest up and regain some of his offensive form. That's probably a pipe dream. Oddly, one of the most viable options might actually be Einar Diaz. For those who watch NESN religiously, you'll remember him as the man Sean MacDonough referred to as "Hall of Famer Einar Diaz" when he was with Cleveland for the arrogant way he dealt with a couple of Pedro Martinez brushback pitches. He hasn't played really since 2005, but has the sort of veteran skills that might fit well in that role.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Now Everyone Wants a Japanese Pitcher!

After I spent three long paragraphs and a lot of ranting and raving yesterday about how Larry Lucchino should lean on the Seibu Lions to "help out" with the Matsuzaka negotiations, they break a story that an MLB official- vice president of something or other- says that this sort of contract assistance would be verboten. Though in the article I read, the way that the MLB guy phrased it left some wiggle room. He said that the posting fee with the Lions was one deal, and the negotiations with Matsuzaka is another deal, and the two should not influence each other. It's sort of a "spirit" thing rather than a "letter" thing. I'm sure that there is some language in the description of the posting process to regulate this, so he's probably right. I'm also sure, however, that Larry Lucchino, Yale Law School grad, has read that language and is perfectly aware of what he can and cannot ask the Seibu Lions to do. I think ultimately what this may mean is that we won't actually know how the Lions will affect the negotiations- we won't be able to see the process above-board.

Meanwhile, it was announced that the Yankees won the bidding to negotiate with another Japanese pitcher- a 27-year old lefty named Kei Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers. Though it's clear he's no Matsuzaka, he does seem to be a quality arm- one of the top strikeout pitchers in NPB for the last three or four years. This is shaping up to be a very interesting sort of arms race- a perfect storm of big money washing into MLB, a clear lack of quality arms, big dollar signs in the eyes of Japanese teams, Japanese players wanting a big payday and the big stage of American Baseball, and the Red Sox looking like they're engaging the Yankees in a true spend-fest. Apparently, there is still another quality Japanese pitcher that could make the leap- a reliever for the Nippon Ham Fighters named Hideki Okajima. He hasn't been a closer (except for one year with the Yomiuri Giants), but has a good strikeout rate, at about 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings for his career. He's a free agent, so there's no posting fee to worry about. Word from the omniscient Buster Olney (has he reported any rumors that turned out to be really accurate in the last three years?) is that the Sox are talking to him about a two-year deal. Forget hot stove- this is hibachi time.

Finally, there are multiple reports today that the Sox and J.D. Drew are close to a multiyear deal, worth a reported $70 million over 5 years- which if my math is right works out to $14 million per. Gerry Callahan of WEEI and the Herald absolutely hates the possiblity of J.D. Drew playing for the Sox and getting paid that much, so I think that there's a strong possibility that this will be a good deal. In this market, the Sox can get a better player than Carlos Lee- a better overall hitter (fewer homers, I know) for fewer years and a lot less money. Looking at this deal independent of the Manny rumors and grumblings, this is good for the Sox. It gives them a high-quality right fielder, an excellent hitter in the five hole, and is not an outrageous contract relative to the market. He's not Manny. No one is. But he's a major upgrade on Trot Nixon, and he's a key piece to next year. If, of course, all of these reports are right.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Ganbatte, Lucchino-san! Ganbatte!

I guess if only Nixon can go to China (or to San Francisco, who needs a decent outfielder), then only Larry Lucchino can go to Japan. Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino has been over in Japan "forging a long-term working relationship" with the Seibu Lions on behalf of the Red Sox. All reports seem to indicate, however, that he is somehow leaning on the Lions to be an active participant in the negotiations with Daisuke Matsuzaka. In other words, he's looking for a partial refund of that $51.1 million that the Sox can turn around and use to sweeten Matsuzaka's contract offer. Is this wise? Is he bringing some sort of dishonor to the whole process? Is the whole concept of dishonor and losing face as relevant in Japanese business as it was in the 1980's? Are we still talking about Gung Ho here?

As far as I'm concerned, business is business. Larry Lucchino has the potential of being a very abrasive guy, I think, but one thing he is not is stupid. Of the three (or four parties) involved in this negotiation, the Seibu Lions have the most to lose. If it falls apart, the Sox lose a starting pitcher, but successfully keep him away from the Yankees for a year and get back their $51.1 million. Matsuzaka loses his contract money and the MLB competition for a year, and comes back next year as a free agent. Scott Boras loses a year of fat commission but will get it back next year. But the Lions- they lose big. If this falls apart, they lose $51.1 million. They get Matsuzaka's pitching services for another year, which is good, but then lose him to free agency next year with little or no compensation. They are the ones that want to see this deal with the Sox happen the most.

So is it stupid or dishonorable of Lucchino to suggest that if talks stall between the Sox and Boras over, say $3 million per year- the Sox offer $11, he wants $14- wouldn't it be in the Lions' best interest to make up that difference? They might be out $9 million over three years, but they'd still be left with $42 million, which is still better than the Mets' offer of $40 million and a damn sight better than the squadoosh that they get if the deal falls apart. I'm not suggesting that the Sox deliberately negotiate with Boras in bad faith, i.e. intentionally lowball him (I've heard reports of $7-8 million per year, which I hope are either false, or standard first offers). But if there is some gap to be bridged, the Lions have got to at least consider helping out. And the Sox would have to be incredibly naive not to at least ask the question. I'm sure that a decent translator could help smooth out Lucchino's abrasiveness.

Monday, November 27, 2006

Outfield Options

Over the long holiday weekend, it was announced that another piece of the free-agent-slugging-outfielder puzzle had fallen into place. Following closely on the heels of the Angels' announcement that they had signed Gary Matthews, Jr. to a 5/$50 million deal, the Astros announced that they had "won" the Carlos Lee sweepstakes. Carlos Lees gets 6 years, $100 million. It was rumored that the San Francisco Giants offered more, but of course Texas has no state income tax AND Lee owns a big ol' ranch down there in Texas, so he could commute to Minute Maid Park by Palomino. It's hard to put a dollar figure on those intangibles. Six years and a hundred mil for Carlos Lee. This is a guy who was considered the poor man's Magglio Ordonez when they both played for the White Sox, at a time when Magglio Ordonez was considered the poor man's Manny Ramirez. I know when you're starting with Manny, even small shifts down can still be impressive, but that's a brutal overpayment. I imagine that playing half his games at Minute Maid will probably keep Lee's numbers respectable for a few years, but this is just one crazy market.

I know that I probably shouldn't rail against the nutty contracts being doled out all over baseball, particularly when I am so much in favor of the insane dealings for Matsuzaka. But I am, and I'll continue to do so, for a couple of reasons. First, the Matsuzaka posting fee is not salary. Sure, it involves the acquisition of a single player, but it is more market-development money than anything. Plus, I'm not convinced the Sox aren't going to get some of that back under the table. Second, there is no property in baseball worth overspending for like an ace pitcher. Hitters come and go and have varying degrees of fungibility. But when you've got Roger Clemens or Pedro Martinez (circa 1999) or Curt Schilling (circa 2004) or Johan Santana (circa NOW), you open up the money bag for them. You back up that Brinks truck. These are the guys who can make possible contenders champions. I think Matsuzaka could be one of those guys. Third, I think that teams are overreacting to the apparent lack of decent power on the open market. Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Lee were really the only names out there, and the NL Central got them all. As a result, the Dodgers overpaid for Juan Pierre, and the Angels overpaid for Gary Matthews. The Giants are still out there, desperately trying to overpay for someone.

The Giants, like the Red Sox, are looking carefully at both J.D. Drew and Manny Ramirez. Apparently the White Sox might be as well, as might the Phillies, despite Pat Gillicks "headache" remarks about Manny. The Giants, likely losing Barry Bonds for next year (though he may still stagger back there if his market dries up enough- the A's still need a DH...) need a power bat in their outfield. Manny may fit the bill for the incredibly forgiving Giants fans. That would net the Sox some pitching, some prospects, and some salary space for J.D. Drew. I still think this may work out, though it is more of a gamble than I originally thought.

I checked into some numbers on this. Replacing Manny in left with Wily Mo Pena and replacing Trot in right with J.D. Drew wasn't as seamless as I thought. Manny is just so good, so productive that he warps most analysis. Using the Runs Created per game (RC/G) statistic found on Hardball Times, Manny has had a three-year run of 8.5/9.2/9.9. These are awfully good numbers. I'm using the per game numbers rather than cumulative numbers because both Trot and Wily Mo have had playing-time issues. Trot's numbers are 6.2/6.3/5.2. That 5.2 is this year, and may represent where he's headed as he ages. J.D. Drew has been 9.4/7.8/7.6, which is quite respectable. Wily Mo is at 6.1/4.5/5.4, which may be all across the board for reasons of youth, position and team uncertainty, or just downright flakiness. Depending on how you look at it or weigh it, the Sox could be losing a run or two per game with the rebuilt outfield. The defense will be better, particularly with Drew in right, but that's not great. That's especially not great if you have to pay Drew Carlos Lee-type money. That's almost Manny money, and part of the point is to dump Manny's money. It's also to dump Manny, I guess, if you believe the stuff that Dan Shaughnessy is writing about his end-of-year quitting.

As I type this I also checked one more possibility- since the Orioles are also looking for a slugging outfielder and have a well-paid malcontent in their midst, a Manny-for-Miguel trade could still be an option. Miguel Tejada fits a couple of needs- one for a middle-of-the-order bat, and the other for one hell of a shortstop. The numbers? Well, they aren't as good as I thought. His three year RC/G is only 7.5/6.5/6.4 which is good for a shortstop, but not the production (nor the trendline) you'd want to see.

So what to do? What to do? You tell me.

Friday, November 24, 2006

Thinking of Thanking

Before I rush out and join the throngs of shoppers on this day after Thanksgiving, I thought I would pause and consider some of the good things about the recent past, present, and near future about these Red Sox that deserve some gratitude:

1) Bill Mueller for giving us his last really good years and helping us to the 2004 World Series. I trust he will be as productive and as professional in his retirement as he was on the field.
2) The signing of David Ortiz to a long-term contract at the start of the 2006 season.
3) Mark Loretta's walk-off homer on Patriot's Day.
4) David Ortiz' walk-off single in late July, to end my first game at Fenway.
5) The experience of my first game at Fenway, and my father along with me.
6) The emergence of Jonathan Papelbon, the hope of tomorrow.
7) The grizzled persistence and leadership of Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield.
8) David Ortiz breaking Jimmy Foxx's Red Sox home run record.
9) The Yankees not winning the World Series (again).
10) The late-season emergence of Julian Tavarez as a reborn starter.
11) The excitement of the Daisuke Matsuzaka sweepstakes.
12) The prospect of having (on paper, at least) the most exciting and talented rotation in baseball for 2007.
13) The prospect of another two or three months of hot stove talk, especially in an off-season environment as heated as this one.
14) The coming of the Dustin Pedroia era.
15) The return to health, and to the rotation, of Jon Lester.
16) The development of the 2005 and 2006 draft classes- the best in all of baseball.
17) Not having Gary Sheffield end up on the Red Sox.
18) Not paying $50 million for either Juan Pierre or Gary Matthews, Jr.
19) Another year at Fenway.
20) Another shot at another title.

Happy Thanksgiving. Safe shopping. See you Monday.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

The Third Way- no, the Fifth Way

If you read Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract, you know that he outlines his "Win Shares" statistical system. Basically, it takes into account both annual and per-game performances of players to assign numerical values on their playing. Win shares over 20 per year represent a very good season. Over 30 is an MVP-type season. For some context, in 2004, Albert Pujols had 40 win shares, which is an incredibly good season, almost a unanimous MVP-type season. The problem is Barry Bonds had 53 that year. This year, Pujols had 39 win shares, and Ryan Howard had 31.
Miguel Cabrera, Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright all had more than Ryan Howard.

In the AL, Jeter led the way with 33 win shares. Joe Mauer was actually second with 31. Ortiz was third, and Manny was fourth. Coming in in fifth place, with 27 win shares (tied with Raul Ibanez, by the way) was your 2006 MVP, Justin Morneau. I know the voters don't vote on win shares. I doubt if most voters know what win shares are. Let's take a slightly less esoteric statistic- Runs Created. Again, Jeter leads the way, with 138. Behind him are David Ortiz, Grady Sizemore, and Jim Thome. In fifth place (tied with Ibanez and Travis Hafner) is Justin Morneau, your 2006 MVP. He had 121 runs created. The difference of 17 between him and Jeter is the same as the difference between Morneau and his teammate Michael Cuddyer. 17 runs created is equivalent to about four wins. Jeter was four wins better than Morneau, and Papi was more than two wins better.

To sum all of this up, in the National League, voters overlooked the guy who was clearly the best player on a contending team (Pujols) in favor of a guy who had gaudy HR/RBI numbers on a team that didn't even finish in the playoffs. In the American League, the voters not only ignored the best statisical player on a contending team (Jeter) AND the guy with gaudy HR/RBI numbers on a team that didn't even finish in the playoffs (Ortiz) but they went with a guy who was not even the most valuable player on his own team. Joe Mauer was more important to the Twins than Justin Morneau. On a game-by-game basis, both Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano were more valuable to the Twins.

So why Morneau? For one, he avoids another year of Papi vs. Yankee debate. For two, he had a very good September, like Vladimir Guererro a couple of years ago. Oh wait, he DIDN'T have that good a September. He did hit .348 that month, but he only had 2 homers and 19 RBI. That was his second-worst month. How about August? Not much better. He hit .294 with four homers and 22 RBI. In August and September, when his team was falling apart around him and he didn't have much of Manny to protect him in the lineup, Big Papi hit 17 homers. Down the stretch, the Greatest Power Threat the Twins have had since Harmon Killebrew hit SIX homers. Six. Is that clutch? Is that putting your team on your back and carrying them to the playoffs? Now I'm not saying that Papi is the best choice for MVP. I'm saying that if you're not going to give it to him, you better give it to Jeter, and vice-versa. I'm just trying to figure out why the voters acted this way. It wasn't statistics. It wasn't huge numbers. It wasn't even the most remarkable player on a playoff team. It was a good player having a very good year. Most Valuable? Not even close.

Want to know the truth? Ok. The truth is I'm still bitter about dropping Morneau from my fantasy team this year. I already had Papi at first and when Morneau started slowly, I dropped him in favor of speed- Chone Figgins or someone. I know. Stupid. But that doesn't mean my arguments are less valid, does it? Does it?

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Pair of Farewells

A couple of former Sox infielders made some big decisions yesterday. Alex Gonzalez seems to be on his way to the Reds, who are overpaying for his services- in the range of three years, $14 or $15 million. I would be among the first to admit that it is a rare pleasure watching him play short. Had he played more than 115 games or so this year, I would have been hugely offended about his not being awarded the gold glove. Combine that with his, well, let's say anemic production with a bat in his hand, and I just don't see the Sox investing that kind of money for the next three years. I know, if Edgar Renteria is worth 4/$40 then isn't A-Gon worth 3/$15? Well, let's hold on. Renteria wasn't worth $40 million. I don't know what the front office will do for a shortstop. Julio Lugo looms large out there, but with this market, if Alex Gonzalez gets $5 million a year, Lugo's gonna get overpaid too. I just hope if it's us, it's not by too much. But hey, it could always be worse, right? We could have just made the mistake of signing Juan Pierre to a 5 year deal for $45 million...Enjoy those singles, Dodger fans.

In sadder news, Bill Mueller announced his retirement. After only 30-something games with the Dodgers this year, his knees, which have been crumbling for years, finally reached the point of no return. Of all of the guys from the 2003-2004 glory days, I think I'll miss that scarecrow most of all. He was not only a very good player, but he was as likeable a guy as you could ask for- a great teammate, a modest guy, someone who realized how lucky he was to be doing what he was doing. I think it's a no-brainer that Ned Colletti decided to keep Billy around as a special advisor. I recently read Sam Walker's book "Fantasyland," in which Bill Mueller plays a prominent role in the plot, and on Sam Walker's Tout Wars rotisserie team. The vignette in which Sam Walker shares a Schafer beer with Bill Mueller after a big game will stay with me for a long time. We'll see you 'round, Billy. Don't be a stranger.

Elsewhere, Ryan Howard pulled off a minor upset in winning the NL MVP over Albert Pujols. I know all of the statheads out there could never comprehend why voters don't see that Pujols easily was more valuable than Howard, given the differences in doubles, OBP, defense, etc. The fact remains, however, that some numbers are just really hard for the voters to ignore. 58 homers and 149 RBI is really really big. Those two guys were the clear one-two for the voting, and that outburst just tipped the balances. A bit more power trumped a lot more overall value and consistency. I can't get too upset about it.

I can't get too upset about it until this afternoon, of course. This afternoon, this same situation will be reversed. A huge power output (54 homers, 137 RBI) is going to lose to some overall, consistent value. When Derek Jeter wins the MVP over David Ortiz, the voters gonna have some 'splainin' to do. How can you say that in the NL, the power output of one guy was enough to beat out the clear statistical superiority (in a runs-created framework) of the other guy, but say just the opposite in the AL? Is it because Ortiz is a DH? It can't be because the Sox missed the playoffs- the Phillies missed it also.

Maybe I'm getting worked up over nothing- maybe Ortiz will surprise us and win the award after all.

Right.

Monday, November 20, 2006

The Wealthiest Alfonso

Edgardo Alfonso had five or six excellent seasons, but didn't really stick around long enough to parlay them into huge dollars. Alfonso Ribiero has always been a supporting character- second fiddle to Ricky Schroeder and then Will Smith. He was last seen on Celebrity Duets, trying to survive in the shadow of the great Hal Sparks. Something tells me that soap-opera star Kristin Alfonso isn't pulling down eight figures a year.

No, my friends, it is Alfonso Soriano who is smiling today. In addition to winning the sweepstakes for wealthiest Alfonso, he will also get to patrol the friendly confines of Wrigley Field's outfield grass for the next eight years. For this service, he will be paid a reported $136 million. That, if my math serves me, is $17 million a year. I know- I thought that after the Derek Jeter $189 million deal, we were just about done with these. I suppose I figured that the Beltran contract was a bit of a hiccup, but that the overall market direction was down. No more six, seven, eight or more-year deals. I guess I was wrong. I also guess my vision of seeing Soriano in a Sox uniform is also probably incorrect. This means that the options such as J.D. Drew (yes) and Carlos Lee (no!) are more likely for the Sox. This also means that the market has been established a bit higher than we anticipated this off-season, and some players are going to get rich. Probably not Soriano rich- I think that most teams recognize that Carlos Lee is probably Mo Vaughan waiting to happen and that he isn't worth more than four years. I think that Barry Zito, as reliable a pitcher as he's been, isn't going to get more than five or six years, and fall short of $100 million. Even Matsuzaka isn't going to see much more than the $51 million the Sox paid for the right to talk with him. But there's a long way to fall from $136 million and still be plenty rich.

One potential benefit of this lucrative players' market is that Manny becomes not only more tradeable, but more tradeable at a higher leverage to the Sox. He's only got two years left, with a total value of just under $40 million. He still has two option years and is a 5/10 guy who can veto trades, but if he's amenable, I don't see the Sox having to pick up much if any of his salary this year. The likely target at this point seems to be the Angels, where owner Arte Moreno continues to crow loudly about making a big move to get a big bat in the middle of the order to pair up with Vlad Guerrero. Losing out on Soriano makes someone like Manny an even more attractive target. Manny may be big money, but he's short-term, and is a more proven quantity than someone like Carlos Lee or J.D. Drew. Could we shake loose Chone Figgins, Scot Shields, and a prospect for Manny? Could we get K-Rod and Chone Figgins? I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.

Friday, November 17, 2006

Drew Rumors

I said in a recent post that with the new Sox front office focus on confidentiality, I wouldn't put too much stock in rumors. That said, I am going to take the report from the Rocky Mountain News that the Sox are offering a 2 year/$30 million contract to outfielder J.D. Drew with a big grain of salt. As far as I can tell, the Rocky Mountain News is the only paper/outlet reporting this. None of the Boston papers are independently reporting or verifying this. Gammons doesn't have this. I don't think it's necessarily accurate. Let's also not forget how off everyone's "inside information" was on the Matsuzaka numbers. I'm going to wait a bit on this one.

The pundits on the radio were all up in arms about how signing Drew is a huge mistake because he'd never live up to the expectations the Boston media and fans would place on him. He's too laid back to replace Nixon's "Dirt Dog" reputation, and he's not talented enough to replace Manny's bat. I think they're missing the point on a couple of levels. Drew would out-perform Nixon easily, both offensively and defensively. Second, laid-back is not necessarily bad for Boston. Wasn't Johnny Damon laid back? He was a California-space cadet-type also. He was an idiot, by his own styling. That helped him in Boston, it didn't hurt him. Finally, if we're looking at Drew trying to replace Manny- that also means that Manny may be shopped and traded. We need to look at this as a total package replacement. Currently, we have Manny in left, a big hole in right, and Wily Mo with no position. Bring in Drew for right field, slot Wily Mo in left, trade Manny for pitching and prospects, and you may have something there. Wily Mo could be an adequate defender in left, Drew is a plus defender in right, and could spell Coco in center. Offensively, the combination of Drew and Wily Mo could be almost equal to what you're losing in Manny and Nixon. Add to that some pitching and prospects, and the Sox may come out of this all right.

I'm speculating wildly of course, and it's based on very little- less than very little, if you consider that this is really only one published report, from two time zones away. It's very interesting, though, and not one that with which I'd be too unhappy. A Pena-Crisp-Drew outfield, if healthy, could be pretty promising. I'm not saying I wouldn't like a Ramirez-Crisp-Soriano outfield, with Pena rotating through all of those spots as the fourth guy, but the other option isn't bad.

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Surfing and Pondering

I really like it when someone out there who is both smarter than you and more energetic than you writes a really good article that answers a question you've been pondering. Actually, I hate it because it makes me remember that I'm neither bright nor energetic enough, but I'll take the information where I can get it. David Gassko at The Hardball Times has written a really good article about what Matsuzaka might be worth to the Red Sox, both in terms of on-field performance and in off-field Japanese revenues. I'd click the link if I was you, but the bottom line is, the Red Sox know what they're doing.

Catching up on awards

As we wait with baited breath at word of progress in the Matsuzaka negotiations, there's a moment to catch up and offer some thoughts about the awards that came out in the last couple of days. Before I do, though, let me say that one unfortunate consequence of the front office following the return of Theo is that we can count on fewer and fewer leaks- or at least fewer accurate ones. Theo seems determined to keep a tight lid on internal stuff, so I wouldn't believe much of the speculation. In just the last two days, I've heard that Matsuzaka will get $8-9 million per year and I've also heard $14 million per. Both of those were from "insider" reports. I'm not believing anything until it comes out of Theo's face.

Brandon Webb and Johan Santana picked up Cy Young hardware this week. Johan was a no-brainer. He was the first pitcher in a couple of decades, I believe, to win the pitching triple crown throughout all of baseball. A couple of years ago, he led the AL in wins, strikeouts, and ERA, as did Pedro back in 2000, I believe. But this year, Santana's numbers were tops in BOTH leagues. That doesn't happen often. Curiously, had his own young teammate Francisco Liriano stayed healthy, there may have actually been some opportunity for debate. As for Webb, he was as reasonable choice as any in a pretty weak NL. Carlos Zambrano, Chris Carpenter, and Trevor Hoffman all had decent years. No one was dominant- heck, no one even came up with more than 17 wins. Webb has been an underappreciated pitcher since he entered the league- Dontrelle Willis and his big leg kick and big smile stole the Rookie of the Year award from Webb a few years back, and he also had to live in the shadow of the Big Unit for a couple years. It's nice to see him get some recognition- he's probably the best groundball/strikeout pitcher since Kevin Brown in his prime.

As predicted, Joe Girardi wins Manager of the Year after getting fired. All he did was take an incredibly young team with a payroll around $15 million (a TOTAL payroll) and make them wild card contenders. Bud Selig really needs to use his "good of the game" powers to reconsider Marlins ownership. They could really have something special down there. Jim Leyland picks up AL Manager of the Year for succeeding where Alan Trammel failed. I think some of this had to do with another year of maturation with his pitchers, and part of it represents an actual ability of certain managers to make a difference. Leyland made a difference. That's pretty cool.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

An Even Better Part of Valor

Sometimes there's a thin line between boldness and stupidity. Or between crazy and crazy-like-a-fox. Last night, it was announced that the Red Sox won the Matsuzaka sweepstakes, bidding a reported $51.1 million (one million and ONE!!!) for the rights to negotiate a contract with Matsuzaka and his agent, Scott Boras. They have until midnight, December 14, to come up with a contract. If they don't, the Seibu Lions must return the windfall to the Sox, Matsuzaka must return to pitch for the Lions next year, earning something like $3 million, and then try again next year when he'll be a free agent. The hammer seems to be in the hand of the Red Sox at this point. The Lions really want to see a deal done. Matsuzaka really wants to see a deal done. We know Boras wants to see a deal done. The Sox paid a ton for that hammer, but they've got it now.

Before we get to the question of what sort of contract Matsuzaka might receive (or be worth), let's look at the question of the Sox' astounding bid. They apparently out-bid the second-place team, the Mets, by about $10 million. There were a few teams in the high 30's and low 40's. I am, more and more, seeing this huge sum of money as a marketing investment, and don't worry about it at all as a an "on-field" expenditure. If Matsuzaka signs, how many Red Sox shirts with Matsuzaka's number will be sold in Japan? How many bobble-heads? How much will Japanese cable companies pay to broadcast Matsuzaka's starts? (Jerry Remy is going to have to start greeting the Japanese folks as well- "Konichiwa to besuboru on NESN!") There could be a Matsuzaka reality-show in Japan. What's that worth? This is a ton of money, but it isn't thrown down a hole. The Sox have the money, they have the marketing savvy, and they have the motives to make a big, bold move. The other teams can grumble, but the Sox stepped up. As far as I'm concerned, I can barely remember the pain of this past season. The Sox needed to make a big move. This is one hellacious move- I can't wait until pitchers and catchers report.

The more relevant question now is what is Matsuzaka worth on the field. What sort of contract will be acceptable to everyone. As I see it, he'll need at least four years. The Sox aren't going to accept a one- or two-year deal. It would have to be Pedro-esque. Maybe three years plus two option years. There have been some really good analysis of Matsuzaka's pitching, how it translates and how his history may have affected him. Baseball Prospectus did a really nice job of translating his stats, and argues that over the past two years (a better pitcher gauge- position players usually use three years), he's been as dominant as everyone but Johan Santana. That's pretty good. The Hardball Times argues that despite the fact that Matsuzaka's thrown over 1400 innings by the time he's 26, there's actually a good history there. Folks like Fernando Valenzuela, Tom Seaver, Greg Maddux, and Don Sutton are all comps. That's not a bad thing either. Ultimately, I can see something like 3 years/$40 million plus two option years at maybe $15 or $16 million each. Get it done, Epstein-san!

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Leaks

It's still three and a half hours before the official announcement on Daisuke Matsuzaka, but most media outlets are pegging the Red Sox as winners. If you're looking for proof, check out Matsuzaka's page on Japanese Ballplayers.com- it's a site that tracks, among other things, how Japanese ballplayers are doing in the U.S. Check out the logo they have next to Matsuzaka's name...

The Shortstop Awards

The World Series MVP
The NL Comeback Player of the Year
The NL Batting Champion
The NL Rookie of the Year

What do those four award winners from 2006 have in common? They're all shortstops, or were for a substantial portion of their career, yes. They are all on NL teams? Yes. But look closer. David Eckstein, Nomar Garciaparra, Freddy Garcia, and Hanley Ramirez were all shortstops with the Red Sox or their high minor leagues. I used to think only the Brewers were cursed by the phenomenon of players getting really good after they leave Milwaukee, but it does appear that the Sox suffer from this as well. The latest hit to Sox pride came yesterday as Hanley Ramirez won the Rookie of the Year.

The second guessers of Red Sox Nation will be happy to question the deal that sent Hanley, along with Anibal Sanchez (he of the no-hitter) to the Marlins for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell (and the flipped, steriod-addled Guillermo Mota). It sure does look questionable, with Beckett's mixed results this year, and the Sox facing another question at shortstop for 2007. I still think that you have to make the move. You have a chance of getting one of the very best young (proven) pitchers in the majors for a promising but dicey prospect. I would still defend the Sox pulling the trigger on that. And heck, Lowell was supposed to be an albatross, but he was terrific last year.

The other element of the trade I wonder about is the Renteria effect. Renteria was an all-star before he got to Boston. In Boston, he stunk. When he left, he got better. Beckett was really good with the Marlins. He got to Boston, and kind of stunk also. Is it Boston's doing? I think it's probably safe to say that not everyone can succeed in Boston's atmosphere. I'm tempted to think that maybe Hanley was one of those guys. He seemed easily distracted and impressionable. With a slow start, or a mid-season slump, the media and rabid fan base may have carved him up. He had the chance to blossom in Florida out of that crazy scrutiny. Good for him- but not necessarily too bad for us. There's no guarantee those results would have been transferrable to the Hub.

And don't get me started on Papelbon finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Verlander did have a good year, and pitched decently. Papelbon had an historic year. One of the best relief performances ever- almost Eckersley-esque. Ahh, screw 'em. Pap can win the Cy Young next year.

In other exciting news, this evening will bring the Matsuzaka announcement. After some rumors that the Rangers may have had the inside track, pretty much every news outlet (which is to say ESPN and everyone who reads or believes ESPN) is now saying that the Red Sox have placed the highest bid with the Seibu Lions, a reported $42 million for the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka. I'll believe it when it happens, but I have to say that if you don't think of that money as salary (which it is not) and instead think of it as a marketing investment, it is not only easier to take, but it even makes some sense.

Monday, November 13, 2006

Happy Matsuzaka Eve!

The reports from over the really big pond today indicate that the Seibu Lions, current holders of the rights to pitching pinup Daisuke Matsuzaka have closed out the bidding for the negotiation rights and will convene their meeting to decide about awarding these rights tomorrow morning (U.S. Eastern time). It is anticipated, by every website or radio report I have heard, that the Red Sox are very much in the game to win those negotiating rights.

Winning the negotiating rights ("the posting fee") could cost the Sox, or whoever wins this thing, upwards of $30 million. That, however, does not count against the payroll for luxury tax purposes. This is one reason why I think the Sox could be major players for Matsuzaka (and Iwamura, for that matter). The Sox, since the Henry/Lucchino/Werner team took over, has been all about growing their markets. Beginning with those silly "Red Sox Nation" membership cards to adding seats at Fenway to redoing their TV and radio deals, they want to grow this pie. Japan is a big fat, well-funded, and largely untapped market. Sure, the Yankees and the Mariners have somewhat of a following, but the Sox? Nada. Even when we had Hideo Nomo, management didn't try to spin that into Japanese broadcast revenues the way that this front office would. Investing $35 million for Matsuzaka and maybe $20 million for Iwamura would kick open those doors, like Captain Larry and the Red Ships sailing into Tokyo harbor. Stop me if I'm getting too carried away here.

In other news, the Yankees sent Jaret Wright off to Baltimore, where he'll pitch next year. The O's have to pay only $3 million of his $7 million salary, with the Yankees eating the rest. It's basically an admission that they blew this one. At least Wright will still be stinking up the mound in the AL East, but this time the Yankees will benefit as much as the Sox do.

Also, Aramis Ramirez and the Cubs settled on a new deal, something like 5 years, $73 million. I like that deal. I certainly wouldn't have paid Ramirez that much, but if truth be told, that's probably slightly below what he would have gotten from another team on the open market this offseason. Heck, he signed only a couple of weeks into the free-agent season. He got his security, and gets to continue being a fan favorite at Wrigley, where it's really cool to be a fan favorite. The Cubs get one of the top-producing third basemen in the game for a few more years at a slight discount. It's all good in the Windy City.

Friday, November 10, 2006

That's All Foulke

My first reaction was to be really surprised. Then, I got a little worried. Keith Foulke, in making his decision not to pick up his $3.75 million player option, signalled that this could be a very expensive offseason for the Red Sox. Unless he somehow felt that his tenure in Boston had become so unbearable that making millions and millions of dollars wouldn't salve it, chances are that he thought (or his agent thought) that he could get a better deal elsewhere. Someone (or many someones) out there might be willing to go north of $4 more per year for at least two years of Keith Foulke? Maybe I wasn't the only one charmed by his stellar eleven innings in September.

If that's true, that could be a minor harbinger of a market shift for relief pitching. Maybe I'm being overly dramatic, especially given the huge deal given to B.J. Ryan last year. It is certainly possible that somewhat proven commodities at the back end of the bullpen are going to be highly valued this winter. Unless the Sox can somehow steal Brad Lidge from the Astros, I can't see Theo overpaying for anyone that's available out there- it may be much more likely that we try to solve this bullpen thing from inside the organization. That makes me a little nervous.

Other surprising and potentially good news, though- J.D. Drew surprised both me and the Dodgers (and trust me, I'm much harder to surprise) by opting for free agency. This, for me, makes two free agent outfielders I'd love to see on the Sox next year. Soriano, of course, and now Drew. Personalities and work ethic aside, I think J.D. Drew pretty much represents the production that everyone wishes we got out of Trot Nixon. He's been injury-prone in the past, as well, but he's been clean and very productive the last few years, in the hitting-light environs of Chavez Ravine. He basically produces to your textbook .300/.400/.500 line, with two dozen homers and nearly a hundred RBI. That's a solid corner outfielder. I'll do some digging to see if he might be interested in the friendly confines of Fenway Park. This is getting interesting.

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Hot Corner, Hot Stove

Overlooked in my fascination with Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka (I name I can now spell without looking it up) is the presence of another intriguing Japanese player that has been posted by his team, the Yakult Swallows. A third baseman by the name of Akinori Iwamura. He, like Matsuzaka is 26 or 27- maybe 26 now but will be 27 next season? He's won five gold gloves at third, and for each of the last three years, he's hit over .300 with over 30 homers. The Sox have apparently shown some interest in bidding for his services.

The big question of high-profile Japanese position players, of course, is how their skills and numbers will translate to MLB. Not everyone is Ichiro. Not everyone is Hideki Matsui (who did struggle a bit in his first season with the Yankees). For every Ichiro, there's a Kazuo Matsui. Actually, as I think about it, that's not true. There's really only one Kaz Matsui. He was a bust, no question. But So Taguchi is not a great player, but he wasn't great in Japan either. He is what he is- a decent outfielder, a bit of a banjo hitter, and a bench guy. Tadahito Iguchi, the second baseman for the White Sox, was actually quite good- producing roughly equivalent numbers to Mark Loretta with even a bit more power.

So I think I've talked myself into this a bit. I don't think that any Japanese position player has had as much power in the U.S. as they did in Japan, but you can't expect that. Hideki Matsui averaged about 36 homers in Japan, but has been around 25 in New York. But hand-eye coordination, in fielding and in basic hitting, can be roughly translated. So, the question is, what would you pay for a gold glove third baseman in his prime who is probably good for a .280/.350/.440 line and 20 homers?

Would you trade Mike Lowell? As much as I like him, I'd have to say yes. He's really in a perfect spot to be traded. He had a very good bounceback year- showing that his 2005 with the Marlins was fluky and he can still produce. He sure has hell can still play the position. He's only got one year left on his deal, and could certainly help someone. Finally, he's clearly not the Sox long-term solution at third. Obviously Eric Hinske and Kevin Youkilis can each play a bit at third, but someone young, with more upside, and better defense would be more preferable for the longer term.

The real question, of course, is how much all of this will shake up Jerry Remy's "Yo-Lo-Go-Lo-Va" infield. If you've got Pedroia at second, Iwamura at third, maybe Lugo at short, that's not as fun. That's Yo-Ped-Lu-Iwa-Va. Well, if you've had enough to drink, maybe it could still sound like Santana.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Not Fully Closed Out

The Sox yesterday officially declined their $7.5 million team option on Keith Foulke yesterday. That's not a huge shocker. After a year and a half of injury and ineffectiveness, there's no way in hell that Foulke could be considered worth that. So now Keith has 48 hours to decide if he thinks he can get more than $3.75 million on the open market. If he doesn't think that, he can exercise his player option and return to the Sox for one more year at that rate. That's probably the smart bet at this point. One wrinkle with that is that Keith Foulke never really seemed to enjoy pitching for the Sox that much. Even after pitching brilliantly in the 2004 postseason, it didn't take him more than 15 minutes to start bitching that he should have been the MVP over Manny. I happen to agree with him, but let's enjoy the moment for a while first, shall we?

At any rate, especially given Mike Timlin's $2.8 million contract, there's still an outside shot that Keith Foulke could believe he's worth at least $4 million and could get that (he might be right) from a quieter-market team where he doesn't have ten thousand Angry Bill types screaming about him on talk radio.

If he stays, though, there's the question of how to use him. Theo made some statements yesterday or today about how the Sox are very much in the market for a "closer," whether by free agency or a trade. Theo hinted that they had some internal options as well, which is true, but is also gotta be largely blowing smoke. It's not going to be Timlin. It's not going to be Delcarmen or Hansen. Well, it might be, but those aren't really good options. I'd argue at this point that their best internal option might be...Keith Foulke.

Clearly, when healthy, the guy can be an elite closer. When his fastball is around 87-88 mph and his change is at 78-81 mph, he's really really effective. I know it's an incredibly small sample size, but just look at his September appearances. 11 appearances, 11.1 innings, 10 hits, 9 strikeouts, 1 walk, a WHIP right around 1.0. That's a closer-type line. I don't know if these were high-leverage innings or not (actually, by September, the Sox didn't have any high-leverage innings), but he seemed in that brief time, to have recaptured some of his vintage form. Is that the real Keith returned to save us, or is that a blip on the overall downward spiral? I wouldn't mind paying to find that out.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

A Few Good Men

Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe has spent the last week or so working through the Boston lineup, assessing existing players and looking at potential replacements. Today's entry was on first base, where the big question is "do we need a first baseman with more power?" Kevin Youkilis, the position incumbent, was not a prototypical power guy. He hit 13 homers. Nick Swisher and Paul Konerko hit 35 apiece. Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols hit about 87 apiece. Can't we do better than Youk? Well, the options that Edes presents were, frankly, a little depressing. Scott Hatteberg, Carlos Pena, Aubrey Huff, and Scott Spezio were the other four "probable" options for Edes. Oh my goodness. It's an orgy of riches. None of these guys, with the possible exception of a complete revelation from Pena, would provide even league-average power for the position. Unless you're going to teach Wily Mo to play first or fire up the wayback machine to get the Mo Vaughan from 12 years ago, there's not much out there. For now, Youk has the advantage of being both cheap (still a year from salary arbitration) and capable of getting on base. His .381 OBP was among the league leaders for first basemen. The major problem is, of course, if you punt a little power at one of the traditional power spots, you've got to find it somewhere else.

In a reverse segue, that brings us to the potential signing of Alex Cora to a 2-year extention of service with the Red Sox. Although it's easy to drink the Jerry Remy kool-aid on Cora and say that "every time he's in there, he does something good to help the team," the fact is that Cora finished the year with a .238 average and a slugging percentage under .300. That might not even be acceptable from Ozzie Smith or Bill Mazeroski. It's just really low. It just is not a lot of production. The point, however, is that this isn't a big deal one way or the other. Cora's a backup. He's a utility guy who can play anywhere in the infield and give you very good defense whenever it's required of him. If he gets a hit, good. If he's playing enough that you notice that he never hits a double, that's a problem. I'm counting on the front office to understand this also, and have a plan in place. From the buzz, it sounds a lot like that plan might be Julio Lugo. I'm not as sold on his offense as many others are, but then again, the offensive options at shortstop aren't what they once were (read: 1999). The charges of spousal abuse still bug me a bit, but, they were dropped, right? Eh. Well, I've come to sort of like Julian Tavarez. Maybe I'll like Lugo. If the Blue Jays don't snap him up first, that is.

Another good man went down today, much to the dismay of my fellow midwesterners in Minnesota. After going 12-3 and posting an ERA down around 2, rookie pitcher Francisco Liriano underwent Tommy John surgery today on his pitching arm. He'll be out pretty much all of 2007. This puts a major kink in the Twins hopes for repeating as Central Division champs. No Radke, no Liriano, a less than stellar development of Jesse Crain. That's not good. Terry Ryan has a way of pulling amazing prospects out of his hat, but it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. I think that division will be the most interesting and competitive in baseball again next year- with the Indians returning to the party, and the White Sox sticking around, but slipping a bit.

Finally, I just want to give some love to Retrosheet. The other night, I was watching "A Few Good Men" on TV, and there was a scene in Tom Cruise's apartment when he had the ballgame on in the background. The announcer said something like "The ball goes over Puckett's head! And here comes Ripken! The Twins streak is over!" Out of curiousity, I wanted to find out what that game was. Knowing the movie came out in 1992, I looked at the 1991 season. The Twins had a 15-game winning streak that year that came to an end on June 17 at the hands of the Orioles (the film took place in the DC/Annapolis area). Cal Ripken scored from first on a double in the bottom of the ninth to win it. It was just nice to be able to take that snippet from the movie and place it in context of what was happening in the baseball world. Because that's what it's about, Scout.

Monday, November 06, 2006

A curveball, and a circle-change

I suppose I should have expected it after a post about how ludicrous, unchanging, and inertial the Gold Glove awards are, but I'll apparently never learn to stop shooting my mouth off about stuff of which I have inadequate knowledge. The NL Gold Glove awards came out the other day, and six of the nine positions were awarded to different guys than last year. This means that managers can think outside the box, right?

Well, not really. Orlando Hudson did win at 2B this year, where Luis Castillo had won last year- but last year Hudson was busy winning the Gold Glove in the AL. So his win sort of proves the inertia again. Scott Rolen winning at 3B is not a huge shocker either- it's a correction of last year's award to Mike Lowell, who is now conveniently in the AL. Rolen has won six previous times. At first base, Derrek Lee, last year's winner, was injured most of the year, and Todd Helton, the winner a couple of times recently, fell off the face of the earth, offensively, so the voters needed someone else. Pujols is obviously the best overall first baseman in baseball, if not the best overall player. How can you deny him that?

In the outfield, I guess even the managers have to have seen that Jim Edmonds has finally gotten old. He's still gritty, and still takes great routes to the ball, but he's not a top flight fielder anymore. Beltran had a great overall season, and is a reasonable choice. By reasonable, of course, I mean, he's a very good player who doesn't embarrass himself and if you don't look to hard at the statistics, he could be a gold glover. Finally, Omar Vizquel is apparently going to keep winning awards until two years after he's dead. The guy's what, 45 years old? Amazingly, though, if you look at the basic defensive metrics, he's not bad. He's solid, doesn't make many errors, and still has a top-five zone rating. Adam Everett has been the class of that group for a few years now, and by some standards is the best defensive player in all of baseball. He's going to have to go Nancy Kerrigan on Ol' Omar if he wants that recognition made official, though.

In some other news, the Yankees have apparently come to terms with Mike Mussina, and will keep him in pinstripes for another two years. The deal is rumored to be in the $21-23 million range for the two years. Much as I hate to acknowledge it, this is a great signing. When you look back at all of the big money, long-term pitching deals that have been made in baseball since 2000, Mussina is the guy you'd have to point to that best met expectations and earned his money. I know we in Red Sox Nation would say that Schilling was the best deal, but after he brought us the ring in 2004, he's had trouble. 2005 was almost a total loss, and this year he still wasn't what we expected a true ace to be. When you think about all of the Matt Clements and Russ Ortizes and Jaret Wrights and Carl Pavanos and even Pedro Martinezes out there, there is so much that can go wrong with a long-term, big-money pitching deal. Mussina hasn't won a title with the Yankees, for which I am tremendously grateful, but that hasn't been his fault. He's been very good.

Friday, November 03, 2006

The Inertia Award

It is an immutable law of the baseball universe that Gold Glove awards tend to be given to the same person year after year, even in the absence of logical justification, unless acted upon by some outside force. Yesterday, Derek Jeter won his third straight (!!!) Gold Glove award at shortstop. He started winning, in large part because the winner the previous two years (Alex Rodriguez) was no longer playing shortstop. That move was enough to disrupt the award intertia. Similarly, Mark Grudzielanek won his first AL Gold Glove at second base this year, largely because last year's winner (Orlando Hudson) no longer plays in the AL. Last year's Gold Glove catcher was Jason Varitek, who won largely because the usual winner (Ivan Rodriguez) was injured for part of the season. This year, Tek was injured, Pudge was healthy, and the universal order is restored.

I'm angry about these awards not because, like so many in Red Sox Nation, they were not given to Alex Gonzalez and Mike Lowell. Alex Gonzalez played a superlative shortstop, and was, by any measure, considerably superior to Derek Jeter. But Gonzalez only played about 110-115 games this year. I know what you're thinking, Rafael Palmiero won in 1999 at first base despite playing only about 25 games in that position. Interia! He won because he won in 1998. But I don't begrudge the vote against Gonzalez. If you look at basic fielding measures, errors, fielding percentage, range factor, zone rating, etc., Jeter isn't even in the top 50% of AL shortstops. Juan Uribe, Michael Young, Jhonny Peralta, and Miguel Tejada are all much better than Jeter.

At third base, Lowell was amazing. He was close to stellar. But inertia says that Eric Chavez, who has won the award for the last five years, was also very solid, and there wasn't enough evidence (to the naked eye) to unseat him. I can't really complain about that selection, even though if you look at the date, Brandon Inge was actually probably a little better than both Chavez and Lowell.

Similarly, the outfield winners are the same this year as they were last year. And the same as 2004. And the same as 2003. I'm not saying that Ichiro, Torii Hunter, and Vernon Wells aren't good outfielders, but come on. They're not always the three best. In fact, they might have ever been the very best. If you looked at stats, you'd have to give serious consideration to guys like Nick Markakis, Carl Crawford, Corey Patterson, Scott Podsednik, and Grady Sizemore. Not to mention Manny Ramirez! (I told you not to mention him)

My problem, I think, is that there really is no standard. This is worse than MVP. The managers are supposed to vote for the best fielder at each position. They can't vote for the guy on their own team. I don't think that today's managers are lazy or hate statistics, but I doubt if they give this really much thought. I would be willing to bet that on the ballot or whatever form they have, there is some indication of last year's winner. And unless there is some major thing that changed- like Omar Vizquel leaving the American League a few years back, or Darin Erstad playing first base instead of center field- they go with what they had last year.

I understand the power of this interia. Hell, it controls and defines much of my life's activities. But we have data. We have logical reasons and defensible proof why certain guys should be legitimately honored- particularly guys who really deserve it and have been unfortunately below the radar of public appreciation. I understand the inertia. I just wish I wasn't so upset by the results of it.

Thursday, November 02, 2006

Coulda Been, Almost Was, Still Could Be

There are a couple of significant stories in baseball today, and each of them have a little thread that runs through the Red Sox organization. The three players involved are Jeff Bagwell, Guillermo Mota, and Diasuke Matsuzaka.

Bagwell just announced that he and the Astros are going separate ways after something like 15 years together. Bagwell hit 449 home runs for them, won an MVP, and was probably the least appreciated superstar of the 1990's. He also could have been all of that for the Boston Red Sox. After starring at the University of Hartford (!!!), Bagwell was drafted and came up through the Red Sox system, only to be traded for...say it with me, Larry Anderson. I know that the myopic lens of a pennant race distorts the vision of general managers, but that was historically, one of the most lopsided in history. With Bagwell's shoulder problems and probably salary requirements, I'd guess he's probably going to retire. There's still a possibility he does a two-year deal to be a DH for someone like Kansas City, Baltimore, or even the Rangers, but my guess would be about 70/30 he retires.

When he does retire, he really ought to be a hall-of-famer. If you look at his page on Baseball Reference (at the bottom), they list his Hall of Fame credentials and his most similar comparable players. Those are both very impressive lists. Every one of the non-active comparable players to Bagwell are already in the Hall of Fame. The others are probables like Ken Griffey, Jr., and Frank Thomas. The other thing that works in Bagwell's favor is that despite the glut of remarkable first-basemen in the 1990's (Giambi, McGwire, McGriff, Palmiero, Thomas, etc.) Bagwell's never really been tainted at all by any performance-enhancement speculation. Steering clear of that has got to add up to a few more votes by the Baseball Writers.

Speaking of performance-enhancement speculation, Guillermo Mota was handed a 50-game suspension for steriods the other day. He was, quite briefly, a member of the Red Sox. For as long as it took from the point he was acquired from the Marlins in the Josh Beckett deal to the point that he was traded to the Indians in the Coco Crisp deal (I'm sorry, I meant the David Riske deal), he was one of us. He wouldn't have been at the top of my list of juicing suspects, but, well, there but for the grace of Balco go the Sox. I know that Canseco played for the Sox, but it's been pretty remarkable how well Boston has managed to stay out of that widespread limelight these last couple of years. Something to be proud of? I suppose, until the other shoe drops.

Finally, news got incrementally better from the West Coast today. The Mariners have apparently taken themselves out of the running for Diasuke Matsuzaka's pitching services. After hearing that the Seibu Lions were expecting a posting fee of somewhere around $25 million (nearly double what the Mariners paid to get the rights to Ichiro), Seattle decided that was too rich for their blood. It isn't, in my opinion, too rich for John Henry's blood. I think this improves Boston's position somewhat. Not only does this take out the presumptive front-runner, but it puts Boston in prime position to steal something out from under the Yankees' nose. After spending over ONE BILLION dollars on contracts in the last five years, it is possible that the Yankees are going to be thinking twice before entering into another lengthy committment. Boston's got the resources and the incentive (read: third place) to make a splashy move. This isn't over yet. Sayonara, Seattle. Konishiwa, Matsuzaka-san.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Free? Pass.

I kind of like this way that free agent declarations come out in dribs and drabs- it gives the smallminded and overwhelmed among us the opportunity to digest. Sort of after having gorged on the lengthy baseball season and the filling yet not terribly satisfying baseball postseason, we've all decided collectively to do a gastric bypass of our baseball intake. We can only handle so much at once.

So who fills our egg-sized appetite pouch today? Greg Maddux, Barry Zito, Bernie Williams, Eric Gagne (maybe), Roger Clemens (maybe) and Andy Pettitte (maybe). In other words, Barry Zito. Greg Maddux will never pitch for an American League team, especially not at this point in his career. He could actually phase himself into perhaps the last ever player/coach roles with someone like Los Angeles, San Francisco, or Milwaukee. He's more qualified than most pitching coaches out there, and he's still got a year or two left in his arm.

Clemens and Pettitte are both uncertain as to whether or not they'd return at all or just retire. These are two guys who've both won championships and had great success. They both opted to go to the Astros because they wanted to pitch at home. As much as I think they both like the idea of being courted by other teams desperate for their pitching intensity and skill, why would they go anywhere? If they're healthy and able to pitch effectively, why wouldn't they stay with the Astros? The Astros have money to spend, and much to lose (PR-wise) if they let these guys go. I'd still like to see Clemens finish things out in Boston (not least of which is because he's still a top-15 pitcher in the league), but I don't see it happening.

Bernie Williams is a class act. I don't cheer for him, as a career Yankee, but I respect what he's done in the game. He's a borderline hall-of-famer who has brought the game nothing but respect and dedication. But would I sign him? Hell no. The guy makes Doug Mirabelli's bat look like Gary Sheffield's. And his defensive skills, which have been slipping for a couple of years, are an enormous liability. I'd like to see him go out a Yankee. One, that would just be a nice form of respect- he's of a dying breed of one-team superstars. And two, it would mean the Yankees carry his dead weight for another year. Retire, Bernie. Don't go out like Willie Mays.

And Gagne. I can't quite figure this one out- he filed for free agency provisionally, but he's not a free agent just yet. The Dodgers get to decide on an option, which they'll probably turn down. Then he gets to decide on an option, which he may or may not turn down. If he finally hits the market, should the Sox take a shot at him? That's a big question. This could be like the Wade Miller/Matt Mantei/David Wells sort of signing. You commit little up front, but if things pan out, the salary could escalate. It didn't work out too well with Mantei or Miller, but the Sox didn't tie up too many resources on those. Wells, I think, earned his money while he was here. He was the Sox most effective starter last year. I'd give Gagne an incentivized deal- maybe $3.5 million base, with another three or four (or five) tied to appearances and performance. I don't think that this will be the best offer on the table, though.

Finally, Zito. The word is that the Red Sox are not on his radar, though he should probably be on the Red Sox radar. Zito has been that most elusive thing: a consistent, better-than-average, durable (never missed a start) pitcher in the American League. His career ERA against some very good AL teams has been around 3.55, if I'm not mistaken. His last two years haven't been spectacular, but he's been very solid. Very solid. He's a great #2 in almost anybody's rotation, and a #1 for many teams. With Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Wakefield, and someone else (Lester? Tavarez? Gabbard? Snyder?), there's a question whether the Sox need to pay for a #2. That would mean probably at least 4 years and at least $10 million per. Probably a bit more and a bit longer, given Zito's durability. Is that committing too much to our pitching, which may just need to be stronger at the back end and a bit deeper? I know you can never have too much pitching, but you can spend too much on pitching where you don't need to. I like Zito. I'd like him with the Sox, but I don't know if I'd do that deal either.

I haven't liked too many of these free agents yet. That stinks. The Sox need help in their bullpen. They need a starter. They need a good solid outfielder. There's got to be someone out there they can sign, afford, and benefit from. Can Alfonso Soriano pitch, too?