Outskirts of Red Sox Nation

First Past The Post

2007-01-22T15:41:00.000-08:00

I knew it all along. The meritocracy is alive and well. If you do something and do it well, no matter what it is, people will notice and you will be recognized for it. Or, in my case, do something in a mediocre fashion but with an abandon that borders on obsession and people will notice.

Whichever is the case, this will be my final post from the Outskirts of Red Sox Nation. Effective later this week, my low-VORP baseball thoughts will be able to be found at the upstart juggernaut (can you be both?) web site Red Sox Times. Proprietor/founding member Tim Daloisio has been working on a banner and a space for me in his stable of writers. I'll be writing under the byline of "Past a Diving Jeter," which will remain, for my money, the sweetest four words in the english language. My focus will, at least in part, be on the goings on throughout the AL East and baseball in general with a eye on how it affects the Old Towne Team.

So thank you to the Norwich Bulletin, who provided the impetus and invitation to start this blog. Thank you to those who have occasionally swung by to visit here. I'd ask you to please change your links to the Red Sox Times, and be sure to check that out as often as you're able without making it too obvious that you're avoiding doing something productive. Thanks.

Christopher Nixon, Cleveland Outfielder

2007-01-19T07:11:00.000-08:00

ESPN just reported that Christopher "Trot" Nixon agreed to a one-year, $3 million deal to play for the Cleveland Indians this year. Three million's no slap in the face, but the whole thing just makes me a little sad. Trot's played his whole career in the Sox system, was a fan favorite, and had some really huge moments for the Sox. My personal favorite is the two-run homer he hit off of Roger Clemens in the ninth inning of that great Pedro-Rocket pitcher's duel in 2000. I don't know what the final numbers say, but he always seemed to have Clemens' number- which I suppose makes sense, as he generally killed fastballs from righthanders.

It's not that I think Trot would have been good for the Sox as a full-time player going forward, and it's not that I wish him ill or want him to retire or anything. It just makes me sad. I'll miss him in the Sox uniform. He'll probably form the lesser half of a RF platoon with Casey Blake, who is a righty. I wish him well.

I'm Sorry, Mr. Gonzalez is Not Available To Answer Your Call

2007-01-19T06:26:00.000-08:00

Much sought-after Pittsburgh closer Mike Gonzalez is now formerly-much-sought-after former-Pittsburgh closer Mike Gonzalez. The Braves announced that they had completed a trade for Gonzalez. The Braves gave up young first baseman Adam LaRoche, and picked up Gonzalez and minor league shortstop Brent Lillibridge.

The short-term, local news for the Red Sox is, of course, that Mike Gonzalez is pretty much not readily available as a last-minute pickup for the bullpen. Admittedly, though, the news and apparent crisis over what the Sox are going to do for a closer seems to have dulled a bit. This may have more to do with a certain football team continuing their season deep into January, but nevertheless, even the dedicated baseball journalists have stopped smacking themselves in the forehead, wondering if Joel Pineiro is going to work in a relief role. When the Patriots' season ends (hopefully not until early February), we may return to this subject and find that Mike Gonzalez would have been easier to acquire than we thought, but for now, it's a closed door that warrants barely a footnote. After all, Chad Cordero and Brad Lidge are still out there, aren't they?

Looking deeper into this transaction, though, it looks as if that old salt, John Schuerholz, has done it again. Adam LaRoche is a very solid player, probably a couple of notches above average for his position. Mike Gonzalez is probably at about the same level- and both players will fill important needs for their new teams. The kicker of this transaction is the third player. Brent Lillibridge could be the guy to make this a huge win for the Braves. Though scouts and projections vary a bit on his upside, he appears to have the tools and the talent to have an upside resembling that of Rafael Furcal. Adding a potential 6-win shortstop as a throw-in on a deal like this is what separates the decent general managers from the great ones. You taking notes, Theo?

I'm No Role Model

2007-01-18T08:36:00.000-08:00

Despite the demonstrated force of bloggers seen in the rise of Howard Dean and the brief rise of Ned Lamont, as well as the continued presence of Matt Drudge and Kos, I thought that we had a pretty clear understanding here. Bloggers exist largely to circulate wildly inappropriate and potentially libelous rumors. Print journalists exist largely to print boring, verifiable fact. Bloggers who work too hard on fact and cold, detached reporting have the wrong hobby, and journalists who engage in too much overt rumor-mongering look unprofessional. Being wacky, impertinent and off-the-cuff is MY job, damn it, not yours!

The most egregious example of this blurring of media lines comes from Murray Chass of the New York Times. The New York Times! In a recent column in which he noted the fact that despite reaching tentative agreements, neither J.D. Drew nor Barry Bonds are officially signed by the Red Sox and Giants, respectively. He goes on to say, "the thought arises..." that wouldn't it be interesting if the Sox decided to drop their offer to Drew and sign Barry Bonds instead. This way, he could play left field and Manny Ramirez could go back to his original position in right field.

This is a stupid thing to write- I'll deal with the merits in a second- but it's just incredible that Chass was this glib. Because it was in the Times and mentioned Red Sox players, it automatically showed up on dozens of web sites that scour the internet for Sox articles from legitimate publications and legitimate journalists. This article was a poor example of either of those. Chass should know the power of his position and the influence of the Times over the news world. The Times should know this as well, and try to stop their writers from being so stupid.

Even if it came from Joe Blogger at RedSoxRuleTheUniverse.com, it's a stupid thing to write. First of all, anyone who has any familiarity with both Manny Ramirez' defensive ability and Fenway Park's right field dimensions would be unable to recommend moving Manny over there as a sensible defensive shift. Secondly, the idea that the Sox would sign Bonds is, if not entirely laughable, quite nearly so. Bonds is nearly universally vilified in the baseball world; in fact, it's possible that San Francisco is the only place he is still applauded. Dumping him into one of the roughest media/fan markets in the nation is not a terribly winning strategy. The Sox ownership is nothing if not market-savvy. Bringing Bonds here is not likely to be high on Larry Lucchino or Theo Epstein's "to-do" list, especially with the latest revelations about amphetamine use. Third and most significantly, Barry Bonds hates Boston. He said so repeatedly. This opinion is mostly formulated based on his father's impressions of Boston, which he believed to be quite racist, but nevertheless, that opinion has passed down to Barry. He's said he'd never play here- though I'm sure that Murray Chass was unaware of that fact. He is only, after all, a baseball writer for the New York Times. Fourth, there's no indication from either side that the Drew contract won't be signed, and both sides are saying it's just about some specific legal language. Though this is probably slightly euphemistic, I've got no reason to believe the deal won't be finalized prior to Spring Training.

Ok. That's enough useless anger spent on Mr. Chass. Maybe he thought he was being wacky or clever, or stirring the pot. I just don't think it's funny. Or wacky. Or clever. It's just stupid. If Rush Limbaugh calls feminists "feminazis," it's one thing. If Dick Cheney starts saying the same thing, it's an entirely different matter. Wacky speculation and irresponsible journalism have their place. The New York Times just isn't that place.

A PECOTA Teaser

2007-01-17T12:43:00.000-08:00

In what felt like Christmas morning for me, I checked in to Baseball Prospectus and found out that PECOTA has been released. For those of you who don't know, don't care, or just think I'm a hopeless dork (even without the benefit of one of the Lego-based "dork detetectors" that my daughter, wife and I built the other night), PECOTA is the baseball performance projection system developed for the BP website by Nate Silver and others. It has been proven to be somewhere between 65-75% accurate in predicting player performance. Actually, it does much better than that in some cases, and much worse, particularly for pitchers. I'm going to work up some future entries on this when I get some time to do it, but I thought I would just start with a quick teaser.

This one goes out to all of those "veteran leadership" guys who are pooh-poohing the apparent annointing of Dustin Pedroia as the second baseman of the future for the Sox. "Why didn't we re-sign Mark Loretta? He's an all-star!?" is the frequent refrain. I myself wouldn't have minded seeing the Sox sign Loretta as a backup, but agree that Pedroia is the way to go. PECOTA agrees with me. I can't do formatting very well in Blogger, but here are some comparative projections:

AVG/OBP/SLG:
Pedroia- .294/.360/.431
Loretta- .276/.341/.388

Some more advanced metrics
EqA/VORP
Pedroia- .277/22.2
Loretta- .252/12.7

and the defense:
Pedroia 130/+6
Loretta 114/-3

and now the key:
Age: Pedroia (23) Loretta (35)

In every facet of game performance, Pedroia projects (based on his actual performance, not scouting, etc.) to be significantly better than Mark Loretta. In fact, PECOTA sees Pedroia as being the 5th most productive second baseman in the AL next year by VORP (behind Cano, Kendrick, Kinsler, and Iguchi). He and Kendrick are the youngest, both 23. Now I'm not saying that Pedroia's the next coming of Jeff Kent or Joe Morgan, but he's going to be pretty good, I think. He'll be better than Loretta, better than most guys out there, and plenty good enough to earn his keep on this team.

Patchwork Quilt

2007-01-16T06:34:00.000-08:00

When the winter is cold (as it is apparently, finally going to be here in Connecticut) and when there are few scraps of material to do anything with, you simply need to do what resourceful yankees (that's yankees with a small "y") have done for centuries- you make a patchwork quilt to keep yourself warm.

The long weekend has yielded but few little nuggets of news and analysis about the Red Sox, but we'll see if we can take them and stitch them together into something to keep the fires of the hot stove burning just a little longer:

-Pedro Martinez has a son? Pedro, even in the hot-to-trot media market of Boston, kept a very low personal profile. The only thing that I think I even heard about his personal life when he pitched in Boston was that he had a big, expensive condo where his mother stayed and various family members came and went. This weekend, we learned that not only does Pedro have a son, but this son is 19 years old! Pedro, I believe, is 35, which by my math means that...Pedro was a teenage stud. Here I believed all the stories of Pedro of this shy skinny kid sitting under the mango tree in San Pedro de Macoris, when meanwhile he's actually behind the mango tree gettin' busy with some Dominican doll...at any rate, his son (Pedro E. Martinez) is also a pitcher, who held up pretty well in the Dominican winter league. Hopefully young Pedro (the "E") can do a better job at following in his father's footsteps than some other high-profile, similarly-named legacies we've dealt with lately...

-Wily Mo Pena and Brandon Donnelly have both been offered arbitration by the Sox. This takes care of the only two (the only two?) arb-eligible players in the Sox roster, and, for the most part, starts to close out the money situation for the 2007 roster.

-...but not so fast. J.D. Drew is still a giant question mark. He of the 5-year, $70 million contract is still nowhere to be seen, and his contract has still not been signed, some 41 days after the preliminary deal was announced. I know this is maddening for Sox fans, and probably for Terry Francona as well, but from the front office's standpoint, there really isn't much hurry. If you're generally ok with the contract and the condition of Drew's health, waiting is a good thing. The longer the Sox wait, the less leverage that Boras and Drew have, because fewer and fewer teams will be trying to keep the window cracked open for Drew to slip through if possible. Of course, there's always the possiblity that the Drew deal doesn't get done, but that just means the Sox may have to go with a combination of Pena/Hinske/Nixon in right field next year which is both far from idea AND far from the end of the world as we know it.

-Mike Lowell did some interviews over the past couple of days in which he discussed how unsurprised and pleased he was that Manny wasn't actually traded, and also the state of amphetamines in baseball. The substance of the interview was less interesting to me than the tone and intelligence of Mike Lowell. He's a quality guy, a worthy successor in many was to Bill Mueller at third base. It also reminds me of Bill James' comments that third basemen are some of the nicest guys in baseball- Paul Molitor, Mike Schmidt, Brooks Robinson, Ron Santo, Bill Mueller, Mike Lowell- princes all. It's utterly unsurprising that Shea Hillenbrand couldn't hack it at third base for too long.

So there are some of the scraps we had to deal with. I wish I could say that I brought them together with some unifying principle that makes this an amish-quality pattern. Somehow I don't think my "Pedro's a stud and Shea Hillenbrand sucks" literary quilt will fetch top dollar at the Lancaster County Craft Fair...

Something Wicked This Way Comes

2007-01-12T06:38:00.000-08:00

Looking at the baseball section of the Boston Herald today- the Boston Herald, mind you- there are major stories about how Andy Pettitte is all set to "pick up where he left off" in New York with the Yankees, as well as a story about how much the Yankees want Roger Clemens to rejoin their team. First of all, this isn't really news, is it? The Yankees want Clemens? I have a news flash also- Boston would really like to win another World Series. Stop the presses! Secondly, what the heck is the Herald doing wasting column-inches on a story like that? Isn't there any Red Sox news to talk about? Well...not much, really. We're still waiting for J.D. Drew's contract to be memorialized, as they say. We haven't signed any questionable reclaimation-project pitchers in the last few days. Curt Schilling hasn't shot his mouth off on WEEI lately either.

Taking the Boston Herald's lead, then, this seems like a pretty good time to announce that I'm expanding the sphere of my baseball punditry. Of course this announcement has a "tree falling in a forest" metaphysical feel to it, but it's an announcement all the same. Starting soon, I'll be writing a semi-regular column for the Red Sox Times website. My section will be called "Past a Diving Jeter," and will at least attempt to place the Red Sox in context of the entire league, and the AL East in particular. I'll try to look at moves that other teams are making, and assess their relevance to the Sox efforts.

For the time being, I'll keep blogging at this spot, but I'm excited about this new development. If you get a chance, check out the work that Tim Daloisio has done with Red Sox Times, and keep an eye out for my new stuff there.

Rushing to Conclusions

2007-01-11T09:40:00.000-08:00

Finding myself a bit pressed for time today, it seems like a good opportunity to clear out my post-it notes with the links and blog ideas. These articles and discussions are worth your while:

-Tim Daloisio and company at Red Sox Times are working over this Joel Pineiro/closer situation as if it were the partitioning of Berlin, but the results are illuminating. The bottom line on all of this, I think, is that we don't yet know what to expect from Pineiro or any of the other guys in the bullpen (Hansen, Delcarmen, Donnelly, Okajima, etc.) We've got all of Spring Training and the early part of the season to figure out what they've got and how effective they can be. The upside, for me, is that we've got a closer there somewhere. The downside is that we don't, but then again, we've got a huge variety of potential trading pieces to get someone more effective.

-If you're looking for a more effective reliever, it might be a good idea to ask yourself what type of pitcher they are. I love it that a bunch of these stats-heavy websites have started purchasing data from Baseball Info Solutions and other services. They know what to do with this information, and can get it to the rest of us in an interesting way. Baseball Analysts recently posted an article about "categorizing pitchers" by type- looking most specifically at groundball vs. strikeout guys. This is incredibly illuminating to me. Look at some of the names on that grid. J.J. Putz and Joe Nathan on the strikeout axis, and Brandon League and Cla Merideth (doh!) on the groundball axis. Cla seems to have some of the sink to his pitches that made Derek Lowe an effective closer for a while. The big a-ha for me on this chart was Brad Lidge. Despite his alleged problems, he's still getting strikeouts with over 30% of the batters he faced PLUS inducing groundballs on over 40%. Guys aren't getting a ton of good swings on him. If the existing bullpen candidates aren't looking too great, I'd go harder after Lidge than I would after Gonzalez or Cordero.

-I know that most readers won't be able to see this, but I thought I'd point out that the self-appointed geniuses at Baseball Prospectus have put together their analysis of the Sox top-ten prospects. I don't think non-subscribers can get a full analysis, but the sneak-preview is below:

Excellent Prospects
1. Clay Buchholz, rhp
Very Good Prospects
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, cf
3. Michael Bowden, rhp
Good Prospects
4. Jason Place, cf
5. Daniel Bard, rhp
6. Bryce Cox, rhp
Average Prospects
7. Dustin Pedroia, 2b
8. Craig Hansen, rhp
9. Kris Johnson, lhp
10. Justin Masterson, rhp

Better Luck Next Year (by which I mean THIS year)

2007-01-10T09:20:00.000-08:00

Events of 2006 were not terribly kind to two Boston Red Sox outfielders- one past, one present. I have reason to believe that 2007 will be better for both.

Yesterday, Jim Rice fell short again of his bid for induction to the Hall of Fame. While Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn were both elected with over 97% of the ballots, Jim Rice's name only showed up on 63.5%. This number is slightly down from last year, but Jim actually picked up seven or eight votes in a larger voting pool. A quick aside here- there were 545 ballots cast. Two of them were totally blank. I'm willing to attribute that to human error. That leaves 543 ballots with some marks on them. Cal Ripken, Jr. got 537 votes, meaning that six writers left him off the ballot, but didn't leave the ballot blank entirely. In other words, there are six writers out there, who have been gainfully employed as baseball writers for over ten years and presumably have some familiarity with the game of baseball, who cast a ballot for someone OTHER than Cal Ripken, Jr., and for some reason didn't consider Cal worthy of a vote. Who was more worthy on the ballot than Cal Freakin' Ripken? One of the top three best shortstops EVER. By all objective and subjective measures, an extraordinary man and an extraordinary player. Unless Ripken personally spit on the 8-year-old children of each and every one of those six writers, they do not deserve a ballot next year. They simply do not.

The good news for Jim Rice is that he's still hanging in there, and the 2007 class is a lot less impressive than the 2006 class. This means old Jim Ed looks more impressive by comparison. Helped, I think, by the induction of Bruce Sutter last year, Goose Gossage jumped all the way up to 71.2% of the vote. When I say "helped by the induction," I think a lot of writers realized that Gossage was a heck of a lot better than Sutter, and thereby meant to address that oversight/mistake. As for Jim Rice, the only new serious candidates he'll have to deal with are Dave Justice and Tim Raines. Raines deserves induction, I think, but neither of these guys is getting in next year, and they should both reinforce Rice's case for the Hall. Aside from Mark McGwire, the case that Jim Rice is the best position player NOT enshrined gets stronger. Next year could put him over the top. We don't want him to have to labor in the shadow of Rickey Henderson (2008 eligible).

The current Red Sox outfielder we're talking about today is one Covelli Loyce Crisp. A recent Baseball Prospectus "player profile" reviewed his history and development as a player. I was personally a bit surprised by his lack of power throughout his minor-league career, and had to confess I was perplexed at how he became so highly-regarded in the first place. That aside, BP released one of their "Unfiltered" posts yesterday with batted-ball charts from Coco's last few years. This post put some real meat onto the bones of the speculation that Coco had lost a lot of power to his finger injury last year. The second set of charts show a substantial dropoff of the number (percentage) of line drive Coco hit to right field last year. He's usually around 45% to right, and last year, he was just over 25%. With healthy hands, I think there's reason to believe he can drive the ball with more confidence and authority, and really crank up his SLG numbers for 2007. I think 40 doubles and 15 HR are not out of the question.

T-Shirt Hall of Fame

2007-01-09T10:15:00.000-08:00

I grew up in Milwaukee, primarily a Brewers fan. There's something about being eight years old in 1982 and having your team in the World Series that solidifies you as a baseball fan. Of course, the Brew Crew got hosed by the Cardinals that year, and haven't returned to the Series since, but nevertheless, it made an impression.

The funny thing is, I don't ever recall having a Brewers baseball jersey growing up. The only baseball t-shirt I remember wearing in my youth was a navy-blue Jim Rice t-shirt. I wore it so often in the early 80's that one of my neighbors down the street called me "Jim" well into my 20's. My name's not Jim, by the way. Even from that distance, and even not becoming an real fan of the Boston Red Sox until the late 1990's, I've had a fondness for Jim Rice. I think that today (2 p.m. Eastern is the announcement) he ought to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame, and sincerely hope that he will be.

I have to say in my formative years as an adult baseball fan, I was sort of down on Jim Rice's candidacy. As I read Bill James and Rob Neyer, I was too swayed by the opinion that he was too one-dimensional and lacked the extended peak that true hall-of-famers have. It was also pretty clear that Bill James, ever the moralist, thought Jim Rice was something of a jerk, which doesn't help his argument. There are lots of websites and lots of people more devoted to this than I am, but I would just point a couple of things out. If you check Jim's page on Baseball-Reference.com and scroll down toward the bottom, there are a couple of things that stand out. Bill James invented lots of fun baseball stats stuff, but a few of them are the "Hall of Fame Monitor" scores and the "Similarity Scores." His grey and black ink for Hall of Fame worthiness all exceed the average HOFer by a comfortable margin. He falls a little short on "Hall of Fame Standards," but that has more to with his shorter career (lack of big counting stats) than his worthiness. If you look at Sandy Koufax's page, his HOF Standard number is 46. A short attenuation to your career should not minimize greatness.

Bill James also created what he calls the "Keltner List" of Hall of Fame worthiness. These are fifteen questions used to sort through candidates. Obviously, if you accept these questions, you're accepting Bill James' own assumptions about what makes someone worthy, but I'm willing to take that leap. I'm not going to answer them all for Jim Rice, but I'll post them below and be comfortable in saying that I think that objective answers to questions on the list actually treat Jim Rice pretty fairly.

The last thing I'll say is that I sincerely hope that the trend toward increasing support every year continues. It would be ludicrous to think that someone would appear on a writer's ballot one year and then drop off in future years. It is much much more sensible to believe that a player is understood to be a Hall of Famer as time gives you better context of their careers. Only slam-dunks are enshrined immediately (congratulations in advance, Cal and Tony), but other guys like Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven need to build over time as people can see, from a distance, how truly dominant they were in their time, and in their context.

THE KELTNER LIST
1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

2. Was he the best player on his team?

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

U-N-I-T-Bye

2007-01-08T06:11:00.000-08:00

It seems somewhat official this morning that Randy Johnson is now done as a member of the Yankees. He seems to be returning to the Diamondbacks for two years and $26 million, which is about ten dollars per year he's been alive. In exchange, the Yankees are picking up Luis Vizcaino and a couple of minor leaguers. Vizcaino should be servicable out of the bullpen, and the Yankees can safely say that the did some major restocking of their upper-eschelons of minor league talent this off-season. Getting rid of Sheffield, Jaret Wright, and Johnson for a boatload of prospects seems anathema to the Yankee approach for the last half-decade. They're getting rid of established, "name" players and taking on prospects? Madness. Madness.

Actually, this is probably good for both the Yankees AND the Red Sox. In the short term- the window of this year and probably next year, this is good for the Sox. Randy Johnson, despite a sub-standard 2006 and an ongoing surly attitude in NYC, was due for a major bounceback year. I haven't read anyone (any reliable projection system, that is) that thinks the Yankees have a pitcher that would have been better than the Unit in 2007. Not Mussina. Not Wang. Not Philip Hughes. Not Pavano. As far as the Sox are concerned, the Yankees traded away their ace. And that, my friends, is good news for Curt Schilling and the Sox as they go into his final year.

For the Yankees, this moves makes them younger and cheaper with greater upside in the future. Now, I don't really know what relevance "getting cheaper" is to the Yankees. They're opening their new stadium in 2008 or 2009, complete with the machine that prints $10,000 bills with Steinbrenner's face on it up in the owner's box behind home plate. I know it must suck having to pay the luxury tax, paying other teams for the privelege of crushing them in the regular season. But honestly, even with these moves, money is not, and will not be, an issue. My guess is that Cashman just wants to prove to the other GMs that he can be as smart as they are without spending double, triple or quadruple what they're spending.

While we're speculating on the motives of strangers, let me say that I'm pretty tired of the Roger Clemens speculation. All the New York papers, and several others, are saying that now that the Unit is gone, the Yankees have the inside track on signing Roger for all or part of 2007. After all, he loved playing for Joe Torre, and heck, Andy Pettitte is back in pinstripes, why not Roger? The Sox, of course, believe that because Clemens started out in Boston and is currently tied with Cy Young at the top of the all-time Sox wins list, he'd like to come back, have some closure, and take the crown from Cy Young. The Astros, meanwhile, think that Roger will ultimately decide to stay home again and pitch Sundays for Houston. After all, his son is a lousy prospect in the Astros' low minors! I grow weary.

My point is: nobody knows nothin'. We don't know what is in Roger's head, or the head of his wife, or all of his K-children. We do know that he's got an open invitation to join ANY of these teams, and money is not really a concern with any of them, or with him. I'd be very surprised if it came down to some sort of financial bidding war between the Yankees and the Sox. Roger doesn't need the money, and both of the teams have too much dignity to engage that. Even Pettitte, who is supposed to be Clemens' best friend, has no idea what he's going to do. So enough with these speculative articles handicapping his ultimate location. Sure, it would be nice if he ended up here (though our rotation is looking pretty solid even without him), or even in Houston for one more go. It would sort of suck if he ended up back with the Yankees, because that would make them a bit better, at least for the couple of months he's there. But it's not like coming to Boston or NYC would guarantee either Roger or the team one last title. It's just so much silliness.

So here's my prediction: Even going into the season, nobody will know where Clemens will be playing come June. When he finally decides, one team will be happy, though 40% of that team's fan base will think the team is overpaying him; one team will be upset that they didn't try harder to get him; and the third team, like the rest of the world, will sigh and say "Whatever. Let's move on, shall we?"

Let's move on, shall we?

Contract Questions

2007-01-05T07:04:00.000-08:00

In all of the hubbub over the Joel Pineiro contract (well, if by hubbub you mean my obsessively checking about three websites over and over...) something is still a bit unclear to me. It's been widely reported as a $4 million deal for one year. I've also heard from numerous places that there is a $2 million incentive in place, based on "games finished." Obviously this tips the hand of the Sox that they made this signing with the intent on making Pineiero at least a solid candidate for closer. My question is- is it a $2 million deal plus $2 million in incentives or a $4 million contract with another $2 million in incentives. That makes a bit of a difference to how I see this.

If it's a $2 million base with the other 2 in incentives, that's a really savvy acquisition. Given this pitching market, $2 million to take a chance on an arm like Pineiero's is a very good pickup. If nothing else, he can be bundled and flipped to another team starving for pitching. If he flops in the bullpen, he'll never reach the games finished incentive level anyway, and the Sox are out $2 million TOPS. If he succeeds and becomes a good closer, then $4 million is a very reasonable price to pay for a major league closer. If the base is $4 million and could jump to six, well that's not quite as good. Still, if that last $2 million kicks in, it must mean that Pineiro is doing something right. I'd just like some clarification on this, so that I can know how happy or perplexed to be.

In somewhat related news, Keith Foulke signed on with the Indians yesterday. Well, I know that he wanted to get closer to his home in Arizona, and technically Cleveland IS closer than Boston to Phoenix...but this guy must have really hated playing for Boston. He's making $5 million base in Cleveland, with some incentives, I understand. With arbitration, he could probably have made about $6 or $6.5 in Boston. It's obviously not about the money. To my mind, it's probably about 35% that he hated pitching in Boston and about 65% that he is more likely to get to be the closer in Cleveland. Even with Papelbon returning to the rotation, it was no slam-dunk that Foulke would have regained his chair at the end of the bullpen. Cleveland may give him that chance.

Finally, another former Red Sox player signed elsewhere yesterday. Mark Loretta agreed to a one-year, $2.5 million deal with the Astros. The contract also includes a million in incentives. This one is a little sad to me. I don't know if there would have been a place for him on the Sox bench. I agree that it's time for the Dustin Pedroia era to begin, so he wouldn't have been the starter at second. The Sox did just give Alex Cora $4 million over two years to be the utility guy, and Loretta gives you about 60% more offensive production than Cora (well, that's not ACTUALLY based on statistics, but you get the point). And yes, Cora can play basically anywhere on the field but catcher, and Loretta's probably a 2B or 1B only. I guess I understand him not being in Boston this year, but geez. Only a one year deal? Only $2.5 million for a guy who was an all-star twice in the last four years? It's a weird market. Trot's still unemployed, too.

Still I Look To Find A Reason To Believe

2007-01-04T05:58:00.000-08:00

Here's a pitching trendline for you. The data is presented in year-ERA-K/BB format:
2002 - 3.24 - 2.52
2003 - 3.78 - 1.99
2004 - 4.67 - 2.58
2005 - 5.62 - 1.91
2006 - 6.36 - 1.36
...and one final number - $4 million. And no, that last number is not the Publisher's Clearing House prize for rapid decent into suckiness.

The Sox are apparently close to finalizing a one-year deal with former Seattle righty Joel Pineiro. The speculation is that the Sox will try out Pineiro in the bullpen, with an eye on making him a candidate for closer. I've always been in the camp of those who believe that "proven closers" are just good pitchers who happen to pitch last in the game. A good reliever can usually be a good closer. Look at Eddie Guardado, K-Rod, Keith Foulke, even Mariano Rivera. They were all either converted starters or bullpen/setup guys. They moved to the last chair in the bullpen, and were fine.

I'm all for thinking out of the box, as well. If there's no Chad Cordero or Mike Gonzalez (or Keith Foulke or Eric Gagne) immediately available, the front office has to get creative. But I'm a little stumped by this one. Taking a flier (flyer?) on an arm with potential is all well and good, but dishing out $4 million for a guy who has been in freefall for the last couple of seasons is stretching even my homerism. I have two theories on this- let's call this John's attempt to restore his faith in Theo and bring order back to his Red Sox universe.

Theory #1: Pineiro has showed flashes of potential as a reliever. As my new friend Tim Daloisio points out, Piniero has pitched to 295 batters in his career as a reliever, he has had some success holding batters to a .205 batting average and a .610 OPS. Rotoworld agrees that having him focus on one inning at a time may get him back on track. Tim goes on to talk about Pineiro's mechanics, which have been inconsistent (you think?) and declining. It will be up to new pitching coach John Farrell to rebuild them. But by any measure, this is a huge crapshoot. Sure, he could turn it around, find the stuff he had in 2002/2003 and pitch as well out of the 'pen as he has in the past. He could also continue to disappear into the black hole of crappiness that has started to engulf him. $4 million is alot to gamble on that.

Theory #2: Leverage. Or rather, the appearance of leverage. Everybody knows the Sox need a closer. Everybody knows that Foulke, Gagne, Lidge, etc. are not options. Everybody knows the dice are loaded. Everbody rolls with their fingers crossed. Sorry- I shouldn't be mixing music into the middle of the post- song lyrics belong in the title. The point is that the Nationals and the Pirates know that Theo is over a barrel and needs a closer, giving them much more power in negotiations. The Nats were asking for two or three top young arms for Cordero- Hansen and Clay Buchholz and someone else, I believe. The Sox wouldn't give that up. So we needed to do something else. If we can convince the baseball world that we're serious about making Pineiro the closer, our leverage changes- we don't "need" Cordero or Gonzalez quite as desperately. Wink. Wink. Oh, sure, Jim Bowdoin, we'll still talk to you about Cordero. We'll still be interested if the price is a bit lower, but you see, we've got a good closer option. We know we can fix Pineiro's mechanics. He'll be good. Sure, you want Hansen for Cordero? We can do that. But we don't need to, mind you. This is just another option, you know.

I like the possibility that Theory #2 might be correct, but again, $4 million is alot to spend to play that particular gambit. Hey, fingers crossed- maybe Pineiro will surprise us all. Until then, I'll be sitting here, rocking quickly back and forth with my knees pulled up to my chest, hoping that Theo's just being crazy like a fox. We need that fox.

I Think It's Still Pronounced "Shawn"

2007-01-03T06:48:00.000-08:00

I'm always humbled by guys who can do this stuff. One likes to feel special, like one occupies a special and irreplaceable niche in the world, but then again, one is always reminded that there are hundreds or thousands of others out there that can do all of the different things you can do, except better. In other words- you're precious, unique and special- just like everyone else.

There's a dude out there named Chone Smith who happens to be a big Angels fan. This strikes me as a bit of an improbability. Improbable because his unusual first name is the same as the unusual first name of his favorite player on the Anaheim Angels of Orange County Just Outside Los Angeles County But Still Within The Greater Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Such That Having Los Angeles In The Team Name Is Somewhat Accurate But Mostly A Marketing Conceit is also Chone. Chone Figgins, the world's most versatile utility guy, pronounces his name "Shawn." I'd guess that the blogger is pronounced the same way.

So this blogger came up with a projection system which he calls...um...CHONE. Something tells me this guy would be really easy to hack, but I have to give some respect to his system. His hitting projections are right up there with PECOTA, ZIPS, and the Bill James/BIS guys, with an accuracy between 65% and 70% or so.

His projections are sort of a good news/bad news scenario for the Sox. On the good news side, he sees really solid years from Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jonathan Papelbon. Matsuzaka projects to a 3.46 ERA over 187 innings with a 171/52 K/BB ratio. That's a year like Mike Mussina had last year, and with the Sox offense could mean 18 wins for our new pitcher. Papelbon projects to a 3.63 ERA, but his innings are only at 139, probably because it's difficult to project innings from a converted closer. The bad news is that CHONE sees further decline from Curt Schilling, checking in with a 4.25 ERA, though still with a strong K/BB ratio. Wakefield comes in with a 4.76 ERA and rather disappointing strikeout numbers. In between these is Josh Beckett. He projects at an ERA of 4.30 over 186 innings and a K/BB of 152/65. He's projected at 25 homers, which is a great improvement, and would probably explain the lower ERA number. That's better than last year, obviously, but I still find it disappointing. I can't help maintaining high hopes for an ace-like breakout from Beckett.

On the Yankees' side of the spreadsheet, CHONE agrees with PECOTA and ZIPS- seeing Randy Johnson as the probable ace of the Yankees' staff in 2007. Declines are seen from Wang and Mussina. Mediocrity (4.33 ERA) is projected for Andy Pettitte and for Kei Igawa (4.44) and Carl Pavano (4.45). This is just one more reason to hope that the Yankees can finish off the trade to the Diamondbacks. Heck, with the expected bounceback year from the Big Unit, combined with a return to the pitching-friendly NL West? He could be in line for another Cy Young.

All things considered, then, I would take the Sox pitching over the Yankees pitching easily for the 2007 season. The hitting is another issue. That's what is going to make this season close in the AL East. I'll have to look at those numbers more closely.

The First Thing I Checked

2007-01-02T06:20:00.000-08:00

I narrowed down my baseball-website-subscription wish list. I went through the stages of grieving on this a while ago. When BP and ESPN went mostly pay-to-see for their good content, I was outraged. Well, maybe outraged is a little strong. I was sort of annoyed/pissed off. I wanted to read Rob Neyer and Chris(tina?) Kahrl and Derek Zumsteg without having to pay for the pleasure.

I think I skipped a couple of the stages of grief after that and just paid the subscription for Baseball Prospectus. It was, for the most part, the only game in town for me. That lasted two years, I think. During that time, other websites like Baseball Analysts and Hardball Times cropped up, providing decent (if significantly reduced) content for free. That satisfied me for a while, but I'm itching again.

Under the auspices of a birthday gift, I resubscribed to BP this morning. I figure it's really no more nuts than subscribing to a magazine or the Sporting News or something like that. I was going to wait until my actual birthday (this Saturday, for you last-minute shoppers), but something happened this morning to push up the subscription date. I read an article in the Hardball Times about DIPS (defense-independent pitching), which normalizes pitching performance and accounts for bad or good defense, relying heavily on peripheral statistics. There was also a new stat called LIPS, which accounts for bad/good luck. There was also I noticed a couple of intriguing things. First, Chien-Mien Wang was probably the luckiest pitcher in the majors last year. Posting an ERA below 4, when it could easily have been in the mid-5's. Barry Zito was similarly lucky. There seems to be a recognition that ground-ball pitchers with very low strikeout rates are awfully dependent on just where those balls are hit. Wang may have gotten a bunch of balls to Cano, when different swings could have sent them...wait for it...past a diving Jeter. Wang could be due for a down year in 2007, especially with Jeter and A-Rod another year older, and some uncertainty at first base.

The more significant thing I noticed was the MOST unlucky pitcher in baseball last year, according to home runs allowed vs. expected, was none other than Josh Beckett. We all know that he gave up a bunch of homers- 36 to be exact. His expected HRs should have been closer to around 25. Does this augur a good year, a bounceback year for Beckett? I wanted to know more. I needed PECOTA!

That brings me back to my subscription. I couldn't find any good pitching projections for Beckett on the internet (for free, anyway) so I knew the time had come. I just got my confirmation email- with the closing "Love, Baseball Prospectus"-and am ready to roll. I'm ready to find out what the geniuses at BP are predicting from Josh Beckett for 2007. And the answer is...

PECOTA projections for 2007 are not fully rolled out yet. Damn it.

More Needles, Fewer Pins

2006-12-29T06:18:00.000-08:00

The steriod issues in baseball are going to get interesting again, perhaps within a few weeks. A federal appeals court ruled that federal prosecutors (the BALCO investigators) could have access to the list of names of those MLB players who tested positive for steroids in 2003. You'll recall that under the testing agreement, those names were to be kept secret, but if enough of them were positive (I believe at least 5%), then the league would proceed with the full-blown testing-and-penalty regime.

Using the baseline 5% number, there could be 90-100 players on that list that is only a leak away from becoming public. If we were shocked by Jason Grimsley, Jason Giambi, Barry Bonds, and...um...Guillermo Mota, just imagine what we'll think when 2-5 players from EVERY TEAM show up on this list. It would be the epitome of homer-ism to believe that the Red Sox (at least their 2003 team) will emerge from this budding scandal unscathed. Of course everyone is innocent until proven guilty, but knowing that those names are out there casts into question everyone on that team- or heck, everyone in the league in 2003. Just take a look at the Sox roster from 2003. Sure, we could be talking about someone like Jeremy Giambi, Lou Collier, or Lou Merloni, but there are bigger names there, too- Nomar, Todd Walker, Manny, Ortiz, Kevin Millar, Johnny Damon- a leak of this type could severely damage a career. Jason Giambi has done a surprising job of retaining his public image and remaining productive, but I don't see Boston being quite as forgiving.

I'm very curious to see how this one is going to play out. There's some schadenfreude involved, I'm sure. Who would you most like to see show up on that list? I could name about 15 Yankees, but who among the Sox? Ramiro Mendoza? Casey Fossum (tee hee)? Shea Hillenbrand? I have a tough time wishing this on any player. Obviously they bring it on themselves, but it's still tough. Maybe the holiday season has made me soft.

Zito the Giant

2006-12-28T11:47:00.000-08:00

Ok, no sooner had I posted the bit about the wisdom of Barry Zito joining the Yankees then he goes ahead and signs a 7-year, $126 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. Good for him. I suppose that trading Randy Johnson and NOT getting Barry Zito is even better for the Yankees- from the Red Sox perspective, of course.

As for the Giants- how does Brian Sabean keep his job? They certainly needed a front-line pitcher after losing Jason Schmidt to the Dodgers, and Zito's numbers should be a little better in the NL (especially against the NL West), but how do you justify spending that money on that pitcher? It wasn't too terribly long ago that ol' Sabes had pitchers in his organization named Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. He traded them both, PLUS Joe Nathan to the Twins for...wait for it...A.J. Pierzynski. I know the Sox are looking foolish right now for getting rid of Hanley Ramirez, but at least we've got Josh Beckett locked up for a few years. A.J. is with the White Sox.

At any rate, I hope Barry's happy across the Bay Bridge. That's one fewer slightly-above average pitcher the Sox won't have to face twice a year.

Barry vs. The Unit

2006-12-28T06:02:00.000-08:00

As all remains relatively quiet in Red Sox Nation, there is a bit of time to take a look at what the Yankees are up to. Rumors are flying around wildly, centering mostly on Randy Johnson. He's got a no-trade clause, but has apparently expressed willingness to be traded to a west-coast team, presumably the Diamondbacks, the Padres, the Dodgers, or the Mariners (in that order). The Padres probably have the most to offer for him.

To cover the hole in their rotation, and in an effort to get younger and more reliable, the Yankees are now also apparently trying to get in on the Barry Zito sweepstakes. The Mets are still in, and the Rangers have given Barry some sort of deadline for their bid. Nobody likes an ultimatum, even more than nobody likes pitching for the Rangers, so I'd guess that Barry will look at the Mets and the Yankees, with maybe the Giants as a darkhorse. The big question is: is switching Randy Johnson for Barry Zito a good idea?

The answer is yes- if you're the Red Sox.

The upside of signing Barry Zito is that he's younger and healthier. At the end of a six-year deal, he'll be in his mid-30's, and Randy Johnson will be like 50. Also, Randy's got back problems, knee problems, attitude problems, and facial hair problems. Barry's never been on the DL. It achieves the goal of getting the Yankees younger. But does it make them better? I don't believe that it does- not for next year, anyway.

Look at the projections. All of the projection systems I can find seem to believe that Randy Johnson's 2006 was messed up. He did end up with an ERA of 5.00, but that seems to be more bad luck than crappy pitching. His BABIP (batting average on balls-in-play) when runners were on base was .369. When the bases were clear, he held batters to a .206/.271/.341 line. That's good pitching. ZIPS has Randy Johnson v.2007 at an ERA of 3.71. PECOTA has him at 3.52. In each case, he's projected to be the Yankees' BEST starter.

Compare that with Zito. I can't find the PECOTA projection for him, but ZIPS has him at 4.56, which is a tribute to the negative trends in his strikeout rates and his walk rates. Sure, he's healthy and still has a good curveball, but if he's already declining in his effectiveness, why do you want that contract? So if the Yankees want to trade one of the best pitchers of the last decade, someone ripe for a big rebound year for a multi-year deal with a soft-tossing lefty with questionable trendlines, I'm all for it. Welcome to New York, Barry. Happy Trails, Unit.

Rich, Talented, and Unemployed

2006-12-27T06:10:00.000-08:00

As we approach the New Year and continue to take stock of a very eventful off-season, a couple of realities sink in: (1) The Sox still have no closer; (2) Mark Loretta and Trot Nixon are still unemployed; and (3) Technically, so is J.D. Drew.
Actually, the list of former Red Sox second basemen who are unemployed is pretty long, and includes Mark Bellhorn, Pokey Reese, Rey Sanchez, Damian Jackson, and Jose Offerman. I can't believe nobody can find a job for Jose. For pete's sake, the Angels just threw $6.5 million at Shea Hillenbrand. No love for the Offerman?

It's become a weird market for secondary players. After a couple of weeks of speculating that Loretta might end up at first base for the Yankees, it's been quiet. Quality players like Trot and Aubrey Huff continue to wait for the phone to ring. Other guys like Sammy Sosa, Juan Gonzalez, Bernie Williams, B.J. Surhoff, Shannon Stewart, Raul Mondesi, Cliff Floyd, Carl Everett, and Steve Finley are hoping for one more shot at a regular gig.

And how concerned should we be about J.D. Drew? I can't imagine that his health issues are as serious as all that- he was pretty productive last year, and we didn't see a major dropoff in August or September. The Sox were confident enough to offer a big contract. This has got to be an issue of them getting exactly the right out-clause in the contract should he totally fall apart in 2007 or 2008, and also perhaps to let the rapid-fire news cycle forget about him for a little while. The deal will be finalized early on in the new year, hopefully to slightly diminished expectations. I think that Drew still has a decent shot to pleasantly surprise the Fenway Faithful.

Fifty Million Runelvys Fans

2006-12-26T06:08:00.000-08:00

Why is nobody covering this story? It's been four days since the signing was announced, and I'm just now seeing mention of this? The Sox signed Runelvys Hernandez! The Sox signed Runelvys Hernandez! Not only that- they managed to convince him that the whole "secret weapon" tactic, hiding him on Pawtucket's roster, was the best way to psyche out the competition. They did it at Christmastime, so nobody was really paying attention. No one believed that a 300-pound castoff from the Kansas City Royals with a lifetime 5.38 ERA would tip the balance of the American League East, but that's just what might be happening. Well, maybe tipping the balance is a poor choice of words. But look at the facts- as soon as the Sox signed Hernandez (giving them at least 9 starters in Pawtucket, by my count), the Yankees snap into action. They realize that now their rotation has to be that much better. So if you're Brian Cashman, what's your counter move to the Sox signing of Runelvys Hernandez (I love that name)? Exactly. You offer Randy Johnson up for trade- perhaps back to the Diamondbacks.

Whew. I'm exhausted. I'm sure it's got nothing to do with the four beers and three pieces of apple pie I had yesterday afternoon. It's got everything to do with the devastating signing of Runelvys Hernandez and the exciting implications. Could somebody please let me know when his plane is arriving in Providence, so I can go greet it like those nutballs all did with Matsuzaka? How do you spell "konichiwa" in Spanish?

Ok- so just reviewing, Boston is looking at potential starters of:
Schilling
Beckett
Matsuzaka
Papelbon
Wakefield
with backup/AAA options including Tavarez, Lester, Hansack, Gabbard, Pauley, Snyder, Zink! (his name really ought to be punctuated), Alvarez, and now Hernandez. Before you make a comment about how ludicrous that is to be discussing our 14th and 15th starting pitcher option, think back a moment to last summer. This isn't such a stupid exercise. Depth is power.

Down the interstate a bit, the Yankees are probably looking at:
Mussina
Wang
Johnson (?)
Pettitte
Pavano (?)
with Kei Igawa and Philip Hughes (he scare me) waiting in the wings.

Right now, with health being equal, I really like our rotation better. Both Mussina and Pettitte were decent last year, but they're another year older, and Pettitte is returning from his vacation in the NL. Pavano was not wretched in his 17 appearances back in 2005, but I'm not worried about him. What I'm saying is, he's no Runelvys Hernandez.

Merry Plagiarism To All!

2006-12-22T06:56:00.000-08:00

Since this is probably my last entry until after Christmas (unless we have a miracle healing of J.D. Drew's shoulder on Christmas Eve), I thought I would just jump on the easy bandwagon of coming up with holiday gifts for our favorite team. Ian Browne already did this, Gordon Edes already did this, even the guys over at the Fire Brand site did this, but hell, I can do it better, can't I? Well, maybe not better, but later. I can definitely do it later. So here is what I would put under the metaphysical pagan tree for the Boston Red Sox:

-Terry Francona: A copy of the Serenity Prayer. The guy's had a rough year, so much so that he was spittin' blood, pissin' blood, bleedin' down there in the dugout by August. He needs to manage what he's got, and stop suffering so much about what could have been or should have been.

-Theo Epstein: Socks. He's Jewish, right? That's a traditional Hanukkah gift, to my understanding. Plus, this will help ensure that he can fight off any cold feet and continue proceeding boldly into future negotiations, despite the media second-guessing.

-Manny Ramirez: A one-way ticket to Boston. Theo needs to call him up and tell him that he's been traded to Boston. That should make him happy- he wanted a trade, and it would bring a happy, productive bat to left field at Fenway. Let's hope that he doesn't actually bring that bat when he runs out to left field.

-David Ortiz: A big foam cheesehead. How can you not love a guy who does everything he does for the Sox, and then spends his off-season in Green Bay, Wisconsin? In the words of Bill Haverchuck, "how are we not supposed to be in love?" This would be my way, as a native Wisconsinite, of officially welcoming him into the fraternity of upper-midwesterners.

-Curt Schilling: 18-8, 3.55, 200 IP, 185 K, 20 BB
-Josh Beckett: 20-12, 3.87, 210 IP, 178 K, 80 BB
-Daisuke Matsuzaka: 16-9, 3.96, 185 IP, 155K, 80 BB
-Jonathan Papelbon: 14-8, 3.45, 165 IP, 158K, 45 BB
-Tim Wakefield: 18-12, 4.10, 220 IP, 175 K, 90 BB

-J.D. Drew: A healthy shoulder, and a compendium of suggestions on "How to be a Successful, Carefree, Flake in the Boston Media Market" authored by Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, and Bill Lee. Oh, and 30 dingers.

-Dustin Pedroia: .280/.375/.400
-Kevin Youkilis: .295/.400/.450
-Mike Lowell: .270/.355/.450
-Julio Lugo: .280/.360/.430, 35 SB
-Coco Crisp: .305/.375/.400, 20 SB

-Jon Lester: 12 starts in Pawtucket, and a triumphant return to Fenway in June.

-Mike Timlin and J.C. Romero: For lightning to return to their arms.

-Doug Mirabelli: Some batting gloves, and practice with a zen master on snatching pebbles from an open palm.

-Jason Varitek: Followers. The guy's already got leadership. People just need to listen, pay attention, and do what he does.

-Trot Nixon: .295/.380/.500 (for Colorado or San Francisco)
-Wily Mo Pena: .270/.340/.560 (for us)

Merry Christmas, folks.

Loose Change

2006-12-21T06:05:00.000-08:00

The Sox signed eight guys to minor-league deals yesterday- the Boston Globe's Extra Bases website has the details. There are a couple of names there that are faintly recognizable- Joe McEwing, formerly of the Cardinals and Mets, Kerry Robinson, a former outfielder with the D-Rays, and journeyman catcher Alberto Castillo. None of these guys are likely to join the big-league club at any point, and will probably play out the year in Pawtucket. What interests me more- what I'd really like to know- is how these guys get chosen in the first place. What distinguishes them from the hundreds of other minor-league free agents and journeymen out there? I suppose with something like that, they have these major databases of available players, and they ask the database to give them the top middle infielder, catcher, corner outfielder, etc. and these names get spit out.

From there, it's just a copy and paste or a MS Word mail-merge wizard to make the invitation labels, right? I guess these guys all have agents and there are phone calls involved and all. I'd just be interested in seeing these machinations happen- maybe this is how Jed Hoyer is spending his time these days- it's quite a step backwards from acquiring Josh Beckett last year, isn't it? Ah, well, that was his cup of coffee. Maybe he'll get another shot, like Josh Byrnes.

One other thing that has been going through my mind these days is the future of Dustin Pedroia. I really wish that his first taste of the majors had gone better last fall. I have great confidence in him and know that he is fully capable of success in the majors, but, well, when you're surrounded by the negativity of the Boston media and everyone is clamoring for the Sox to bring back Mark Loretta, you can't help but be a little nervous. I'm trying to keep some context, though. He's only had 89 AB in his career. His line looked like this: .191/.258/.303. That's actually about on par with Doug Mirabelli or Alex Cora, but that's not something we'd expect out of our next-decade 2B. Let me give you a couple of other first-taste-of-the-majors lines:

.204/.241/.204 over his first 17 games? Alex Rodriguez.
.224/.250/.320 over his first 65 games? Alex Rodriguez, again.
.202/.240/.303 over his first 26 games? Miguel Tejada.
.181/.290/.209 over his first 81 games? Jose Offerman.

Ok, so I threw that last one in there because David Eckstein, Derek Jeter, and Nomar Garciaparra all did pretty well in their first few games. My point, however, is that it is very possible to overcome a less-than-stellar first few games and still be a highly productive player. I'm still bullish on the little guy.

No Red Sox News = No News

2006-12-20T10:19:00.000-08:00

I know I'm annoyingly, even obsessively Red Sox-centric in my view of baseball, but I don't think it's exaggerating to say that an large portion of the Hot Stove Season has had the Sox as a major pivot point. If it wasn't happening for the Cubs, it was all about the Red Sox. From Matsuzaka to J.D. Drew to talks about Eric Gagne to the Manny speculation, it's been a very Soxy offseason. So when there's not much going on in Red Sox Nation, there seems to be very little going on in the rest of baseball. Let's take a look at some of the main stories in baseball:

-Barry Zito is either going to pitch for the Rangers for a boatload of money or for the Mets for a slightly smaller boatload of money. The big question on everyone's mind is: who cares? Actually, the big question is how much does Barry value pitching in New York. He doesn't want to pitch for Texas. Let's face it- if there was anyone that Elton John's "Texan Love Song" was written for, it was Barry Zito. Omar Minaya knows this. What's it going to cost Barry? I refer you to my first question.

-Brad Radke announced his retirement after 12 years with the Twins. Brad was a good, servicable pitcher for a good while- lifetime 148-139 with an ERA+ of 113. A control-pitching soft-tosser, he once could have been the poor-man's Greg Maddux, but instead was more like the poverty-stricken man's Maddux, or maybe the poor man's Mike Maddux. No, Radke was better than Mike, but was probably 8 years and 75 wins short of any remote HOF consideration.

-Rod Barajas may be joining the Phillies. (yawning)

-Marcus Giles is about to join his brother with the Padres. (crickets)

-Daryl Strawberry thinks that Derek Jeter should give A-Rod a hug. (raised eyebrow)

-Pete Rose thinks Mark McGwire belongs in the Hall of Fame. (feel even worse for McGwire)

Ian Browne over on his MLB Blog is doing a Christmas list for the Sox, which is a nice idea, and hopefully that won't degenerate into flaming name-calling like most of his comment chains. You know, in the spirit of the season and whatnot. Tim Daloisio at Red Sox Times has resorted to photoshopping sneakers. In short, it's a slow news day. Enjoy the quiet. It can't possibly last long.

Risks and Costs

2006-12-19T06:13:00.000-08:00

Now that Matsuzaka's signed, the Sox have shored up their bullpen a bit, and it appears that Manny's staying, at least for now, we can turn our minds and attentions to the next stressful issues of the offseason. The condition of J.D. Drew's surgically repaired shoulder has apparently thrown a bit of a monkeywrench into the finalizing of his contract. Speculation has been pretty much all over the board, with some saying that this is a minor issue, and a second opinion is all that is needed from a t-crossing, i-dotting stance. Others are claiming that this will affect some of the language of the contract, with the Sox protecting themselves in a contractually similar way to the Tigers when they signed Pudge. Still others are claiming that this will torpedo the contract and J.D. Drew will have to look elsewhere to sign, leaving the Sox to turn back to a platoon of Wily Mo and possibly Trot Nixon. Even wilder (in my estimation) speculation has the Sox somehow stealing Alex Rios from the Blue Jays in the wake of the Vernon Wells signing.

The bottom line, to me, is that the J.D. Drew signing has been revealed as being much riskier than originally anticipated. Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus seemed to anticipate this with his PECOTA projection, showing Drew will miss fairly significant time and come up with only 14 homers. If you're not a pitcher, you really shouldn't produce less than one home run per million dollars you're paid. Oh, sure, he projects at about a .400 OBP with good doubles numbers and probably great defense. But when your medical history has your power trending down to 14 homers, something's amiss. Drew needs to devote himself to a workout regimen from Rocky IV. We gotta get that boy healthy.

Speaking of healthy, in the absence of a clear closer for the Sox, the debate over using Jonathan Papelbon as closer again continues to rage. The Sox seem to be convinced that for some (not fully explained) medical reason, Papelbon will be better served being a starter. I don't know if this has to do with rest between appearances or the increased strain on one's arm that relieving brings. I'm not a medical specialist, but it seems to me that innings are innings. Fewer, highly effective innings for another year or two would seem to be less stressful than more innings. I know that having Papelbon come out night after night after night might not be optimum, but if there is some dedication to using him a bit more strategically and a bit more sparingly (one and two run leads, not three runs, for example), this could still possibly work out. Nate Silver (again) weighs in on this in another Unfiltered segment from the BP website, as do the guys over at the Sox blog on the MVN website.

There's no way I would advocate throwing Papelbon in a situation where he's really likely to be seriously injured. I could even understand if this were strictly an economic thing for him (starters get paid more than relievers), but if he's a high-strain pitcher, who puts a toll on his arm regardless of the inning, AND if he's been shown to be incredibly valuable at the back end of the bullpen, I don't know why you'd be so resolute to make that change. Putting Papelbon at the end of a bullpen with Timlin, Okajima, Donnelly, Romero, Delcarmen, Hansen, and maybe Hansack? That's a really solid group, with a top-five closer. Do we really think pitching 60 innings at the end of games is a much higher risk than pitching 170 at the beginnings?

Tinkering

2006-12-18T06:20:00.000-08:00

Shortly after the Sox announced that they had acquired reliever Brendan Donnelly from the Angels, their tinkering with the bullpen continued with the revelation that they had signed J.C. Romero. I am assuming, and sort of hoping, that this is just one of those low-cost "options" that they can play with in Spring Training. The last couple of years have not looked very good for Romero. His WHIP and ERA have both crept up, and he's racking up nearly as many walks as strikeouts. There was some talk of him suffering from the same sort of post-WBC fatigue as Mike Timlin, but that's not a reason to go out of your way to grab the guy. As far as I'm concerned, what this does is lights a fire under Craig Hansen. If he sees that the Sox are willing and able to replace him, and with a guy who sucks nearly as bad as Hansen sucked, well, he might dig a little deeper to find that slider he's been missing.

The Sox are not apparently done with their bullpen work. Though the Yankees appear to have stepped up their own pursuit of Mike Gonzalez, the Sox are not out of that one yet. Furthermore, there are still rumblings about the Nationals' Chad Cordero. Everyone seems to think that makes sense because the Nationals' GM, Jim Bowden is such a huge fan of Wily Mo- having acquired him when he was in Cincinnati. That seems almost too obvious to me- and I'm not sure if Cordero's not worth much more than Pena at this point. I think it would cost the Sox a prospect or two in addition. I'm not saying I wouldn't do it, but I'd think on it a bit.

The Sox have also not yet signed (or shall we say memorialized) the contract with J.D. Drew- the process apparently having been stalled out on some medical basis. Tony Mazzaroti and some others are speculating that something in his physical raised a red flag and they're now working through the process of protecting themselves- perhaps similar to the process the Tigers went through when they signed Pudge Rodriguez. I still think the deal will be done sooner than later. Maybe I'm just all about personal motivation today, but it's my hope that Drew will use this as an opportunity to prove himself as well.

Finally, Troup is gone. With the shifting of the Sox radio broadcast contract from WEEI to WRKO (both owned by Entercom Boston), someone decided that Jerry Trupiano needed to move on. He's being replaced (mostly) by Dave O'Brien, who used to broadcast Florida Marlins games. Sox front office guy Glenn Geffner will also fill in for several games. The press release made virtually no mention of Troup and why the change was made. I've always thought that he and Joe Castiglione were a terrific team, and had found a very nice comfort zone, with their "All Food Team" or "All Geography Team" asides. Plus, I'll really miss the "WAAAAAAY BACK!" on Troup's homer calls. Radio is a very personal, intimate media- especially summer evening games driving in the car and listening alone. It's not an easy thing to let a strange voice into that place.

Donnelly Joins the Pen

2006-12-15T13:30:00.000-08:00

See, I leave the office for a couple of hours and all hell breaks loose. The Sox just announced that they acquired Angels reliever Brendan Donnelly in exchange for 27-year old minor-league lefty reliever Phil Seibel. I liked Seibel, he seems like he could still be a very servicable pitcher, maybe with a Casey Fossum-like career, but I like this move. Donnelly is a good reliever with playoff experience and a K/9 rate of exactly 9. He's pitched 295 innings in his career and has struck out 295 guys. He's walked 105, which is a pretty good rate for a power reliever. Can he close? He's got a couple of saves in his career. He's mostly been a setup guy, but good relievers are good relievers. A closer's just a title. If nothing else pans out, he could be the guy.

Hitting Projections

2006-12-15T06:56:00.000-08:00

I've got a major Matsuzaka hangover. I've got a headache, blurred vision, I'm sensitive to bright lights or noises, I'm a bit nauseous, and I'm wicked sluggish. After this psychological roller coaster culminating in the triumphant signing (and extremely perplexing press conference) of Matsuzaka, I stumble in to this post with not much to offer. I appreciate you staying with me, though.

My birthday's coming up before too long, and I think I may be asking for some true 21st-century gifts. I had said that I'd never pay for ESPN Insider, and had given up paying for Baseball Prospectus with the emergence of Baseball Analysts, The Hardball Times, and other decent, free sites. I'd never really even considered signing up for Baseball America. I am, however, starting to cave a bit. If I can get someone else to buy me subscriptions to these sites, I not only can feel morally righteous about not paying for them, but I'll get to reap their rewards. BA will give me scouting updates, ESPN-I will give me the best insider blogs, and BP will give me as much smug, sarcastic sabermetrics as I can handle. Also, and perhaps most importantly, it will give me PECOTA.

A recent posting on Sons of Sam Horn provided some projections for the Boston hitters in 2007. They included ZIPS, Bill James/BIS, and Ron Shandler, then taking those against 2006 numbers, and also giving averages. The problem is that for a couple of years now, PECOTA projections for hitters has been much better than other systems. They had a r-value of around .740 this year, which for hitting projections is pretty damn good. For pitching, nobody is really very good. You can project about 50% of pitching, and the rest is a crap shoot. So while these numbers that we're seeing on the SOSH website are interesting, the proven most-accurate numbers are missing (because they're proprietary and you have to pay for them).

A couple of notes from the projections, though:
- Manny is predicted at an average line of .306/.414/.599 with 39 HR and 121 RBI. In other words, if he shows up, he'll be Manny again.
- Ortiz should be a beast again- .295/.401/.618 with 49 HR and 138 RBI. His OBP is a little lower than it would have been if Manny was traded, but that's just fine. He'll get more pitches to hit.
- Nobody is projecting J.D. Drew to get 500 AB, but everyone sees him producing at an .877 OPS when he's in the lineup.
- Varitek and Coco should have rebound years, fueled largely by small bumps in power and substantal bumps in batting average- they were both way off their career averages last season.
- Youk and Lowell are projected at almost exactly their production from last year. That's good for Lowell, but still a bit disappointing from Youk, who would really benefit from a bit more pop.
- Both Lugo and Pedroia are projected for an OPS of .760, with Pedroia hitting a few more doubles and Lugo a couple more homers. I'm really surprised that Pedroia's projected OBP is so low. An OBP of .350 from a rookie middle infielder isn't terrible by any stretch, but I'm convinced he can do better than that.
- I can't see how Wily Mo is going to get nearly 400 AB this year, but I'd be pretty happy with the 20+ homers that would accompany that.

Nice. Not Naughty. Nice.

2006-12-14T09:03:00.000-08:00

$52 million over six years. An outside shot at getting to $60 million. That's what the Sox ended up committing to Daisuke Matsuzaka for his pitching services. Let's ignore the posting fee for a second. That $52 million is about HALF of what Jason Schmidt is getting from the Dodgers, on a per-year basis. That's less than the Sox are paying Josh Beckett. That's just a tiny bit more than the Sox are paying Matt Clement. That, after all the sturm und drang and gnashing of teeth and cursing the name of Scott Boras, is a really good deal for the Sox. After the media had been crucifying Theo and the front office for letting Boras walk all over them and drive the bus on these negotiations, I think that no one is doubting, at this point, that the Sox made out VERY well in this deal. Of course, Matsuzaka's arm could fall off in March, but right now, this is a good thing.

Now let's look at the posting fee for a second. John Henry was on the radio yesterday afternoon, debunking the popular notion that the Sox could immediately make back the $51 million through t-shirt sales, etc. Apparently, MLB itself will see the benefit from that, and the Sox only get 1/30 share of the total baseball merchandise sales. Too bad. I still think that the Sox will find a way to make this work for them- NESN broadcasts in Japan, specialized advertising at Fenway, etc. Over the life of the contract, $51 million's not impossible to recover.

But even if you see that fee as part of the whole deal, that brings Matsuzaka's number up to $103 million over six years. That's a Carlos Lee number. That's probably less than Barry Zito will command within the next week or so (I'm looking at you, Omar Minaya and Tom Hicks). Ask yourself- would you rather have 26-year old Matsuzaka or 28-year old Barry Zito for the next six years? How about if only half the cost counted against the salary luxury tax? Right. Me too.

Oh, and while we're talking about would-you-rathers...here's a really good little piece about J.D. Drew vs. Johnny Damon. For all of you lovers of Johnny who still curse the Sox for throwing huge money at Drew that they denied Damon, take a good look at the numbers. If Drew is healthy (a big if, I know), there's not much question who is more valuable.

In other news, the Sox re-signed Tim Wakefield's security blanket to a one year/$750,000 deal. I like Doug Mirabelli. I like how he catches Wakefield. I like his attitude. I love the fact that he still refuses to put on batting gloves. I like the fact that we're getting a good backup catcher for less than a million. What I don't like is that we're giving about 150 AB to a guy who has NO bat speed left. Maybe you can hope that he'll catch a few mistake pitches and crank 8-10 homers. Maybe you can figure on having him limited to Wakefield's 35 starts and take him out for a pinch hitter after six or seven innings. Maybe you're hoping for enough pop from the rest of your lineup to spackle over that hole. But it's a hole. Make no mistake. It's a hole.

With the signing of Mirabelli and Matsuzaka (the M & M boys?), the last major item on the Sox shopping list is a closer. There are still rumblings about Chad Cordero from the Nationals, Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates, Brian Fuentes from the Rockies, and some others. Coco Crisp and Kevin Youkilis are possible trade bait. Aubrey Huff is considered an option should the Sox trade Youk. This is all still out there. I may have to cave and subscribe to ESPN Insider to find out what else is being talked about. I told myself I'd never do that, but, like the Sox, there comes a time you have to go for it, and if you're in for a penny (or $51,111,111.11), you might as well be in for a pound ($52,000,000).

Update from Gordon Edes- Boston Globe

2006-12-13T10:06:00.001-08:00

The Red Sox contingent in Southern California is flying back to Boston with pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka and his agent, Scott Boras, on board.

"They all took off together," Red Sox owner John Henry said in an e-mail to The Associated Press.

“You can assume that a deal is done or close,” said one source with direct knowledge of the talks.

The Red Sox, which flew to California on Monday to talk face to face, essentially created a deadline of their own when they said that their intention was to return home to Boston this morning on owner John W. Henry's private plane -- with Matsuzaka in tow so that he would have sufficient time to undergo a physical, which general manager Theo Epstein described as a nonnegotiable prerequisite to any deal.

In prior days, agent Scott Boras had said he would not allow Matsuzaka to travel to Boston for a physical unless the sides had reached a preliminary agreement.

The Sox made a posting bid of $51.1 million to Matsuzaka's Japanese team, the Seibu Lions, for the right to negotiate with the pitcher for 30 days, a window that ends tomorrow night.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox called a 3:30 p.m. press conference at Fenway Park to announce the signing of Julio Lugo.

Posted By: gedes | Time: 12:27:54 PM

The above was posted on the Boston Globe "Extra Innings" website. It's the first bit of hopeful news we've heard in a long time. I imagine we'll get some more news about this at the Lugo press conference. Stay tuned.

Too Tense For A Clever Title

2006-12-13T08:46:00.000-08:00

The big statement out of the Red Sox camp is: "We're leaving on Wednesday, with or without Matsuzaka." John Henry, Theo, and the rest of the team have made it clear that they're just as big and tough and cold-blooded and logical and cool as Scott Boras is. Congratulations, guys. I'm sure Scott is very very impressed by your display of brinksmanship. Am I the only one that is reminded of that scene in "The Hunt for Red October" where Marko Ramius (Sean Connery) steers his submarine right into the path of the torpedos because he knows they won't be armed yet. Boras is a master of this stuff. Even when other guys try to play the same game, they're still playing by rules that he invented. Theo and John Henry and Larry Lucchino are bright guys. They're not going to do anything totally stupid. But they're not the master. Boras is the master. Sure, he's the devil, too, but he's the master of this stuff. Even though the latest reports are somewhat promising in their proximity (Boras is asking for 6 years/$66 million and the Sox are offering 6 years/$48 million), I'm still thinking this thing is only about 50/50, maybe even a bit less.

There are now also reports out of Houston (some guy's blog, even if he does write for the Houston Chronicle) that the Sox and Roger Clemens have been hot and heavy and are somewhat close to reaching a deal to have the Rocket finish his career in Boston by pitching about four months for the Sox in 2007. Color me unconvinced, but there is some good here, especially if Boras sees that the Sox are prepared to fly right from Southern California to Houston and drop a bag of money in Clemens' lap and solve their pitching problem that way. I'm sure that won't make a major difference to Boras, but if it comes down to the Sox upping their offer to 9 million and Boras dropping his demand to 10 million, the leverage may tilt slightly to the Sox.

And please don't get me started on a rotation that would have Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, Wakefield, AND Clemens. I'm a fan. I'm a really big fan. But I'm not believing that one- not even this close to Christmas.

101 Damnations

2006-12-12T06:25:00.000-08:00

I'd just like to thank everyone who send cards, flowers and congratulations over my 100th post last Friday. That's very kind. I was a little overwhelmed by the big surprise party to celebrate 100 blog posts this weekend, and consequently was in no state to post yesterday. See what all the bacchanalian lifestyle buy you, people? Do you?

Actually, this weekend really held nothing but anxiety for Red Sox fans. Well, some lucky Sox fans got to experience "Christmas at Fenway" and buy some single-game tickets. The daughter of one of my colleagues had the privelege of spending about $2000 on a couple of games' worth. She did get one Yankees game in September, but also had to settle for an evening game in early April. Crikey. I wouldn't feel too badly for her, though- all the offseason buzz will, in my estimation, assure her or a tidy profit should she decide to...um...allow someone else to see the game in her stead.

So today, the news is the same as yesterday, which is the same as the day before. The Sox are still waiting on Scott Boras to blink in the Matsuzaka negotiations. They've taken a delegation out to Newport Beach, CA (Boras HQ) to make this thing happen before the deadline this Thursday. Boras, now starting to refer to Matsuzaka as "Fort Knox" (very classy, Scott) is posturing that his pitcher is worth $100 million, which means around $17 or $18 million over 6 years. The Sox last known offer was around $7 or $8 million per. I'm sure that Matsuzaka chose Boras for a reason, but he's taken over these negotiations in a way that seems somewhat unhelpful to his client. He has forbidden Matsuzaka from sitting in on the negotiations- probably for fear that he knows what the Sox are really offering and demands to accept it.

From what I can guess and what I've read, it seems like Matsuzaka, more than anything, just wants to play ball in the U.S. He doesn't want to return to Japan for another year or two, especially while he's in his prime. One or two years for a pitcher is really huge. I'm not suggesting that the Sox deliberately lowball this thing (especially with only two days to go), but they need to convince Boras that paying market for a non-free-agent and a pitcher who has never played in the majors is simply not reasonable. They need to make him present their offer of $10-12 million per to Matsuzaka and get his reaction. He must be the ultimate judge of what he can accept. I'm sure that Boras, when these negotiations started, said to Matsuzaka that he's got to just trust him completely, but it is starting to seem like Boras is taking advantage of that trust. I know I'm just a hopeless fanboy, but there is no one- except maybe Boras himself, that truly benefits from seeing these negotiations fall apart. Actually, I'd suggest that Boras stands much to lose as well. If the whole bit about saving face and not returning to Japan is true, if the deal falls apart and Matsuzaka goes back to Seibu next year, I'm guessing he enters the bidding process next year with a new agent.

Pieces and Perspective

2006-12-08T06:00:00.000-08:00

A couple more pitching questions were answered yesterday, and neither of them were positive answers for the Sox. Keith Foulke, who had been offered salary arbitration by the Sox (after he declined his player option, after the Sox declined their team option), declined arbitration- meaning that either he felt like he could earn more than $7 million per year elsewhere, OR he hated pitching in Boston so much that it was worth giving up at least a couple of million to get the heck away from Johnny from Burger King. Either way, that's not too good for the Sox, who could have used a healthy (and not overly surly) Foulke in the bullpen.

Having been rejected by Keith, the Sox then turned up the heat on their offer to Octavio Dotel, who has been largely effective throughout his career, when healthy. He spurned them as well, accepting a one-year deal worth between $5-7 million from...the Kansas City Royals. This is the second mediocre/promising pitcher the Royals have snagged this winter- the other being Gil Meche, who will be receiving $55 million over five years. Holy cow. Gil Meche. $55 million. Once you get past that insanity, please remember that Meche has been, for his career, slightly WORSE than league average. Scott Boras has GOT to be loving that move. The other thing this points out is that the Royals will actually have a pretty deep pitching staff this year- with Meche, Odalis Perez, Brian Bannister, Luke Hudson, Jorge de la Rosa, my personal favorite Zack Greinke, and Luke Hochevar right around the corner. That's not bad. Of course having even one person in their lineup capable of putting up a .500 SLG would help, too. Mark Teahen? Um...no.

The point that I wanted to make in this market where lots of really unexciting players are getting tremendous money is that several moves the Sox made in-season last year are actually looking pretty good. Last year's offseason wasn't quite as insane as this one, but perhaps anticipating an uptick in the market, the Sox signed three players to extension. Carlos Lee gets 6 years/$100 million? How does 4/$52 for David Ortiz look right now. Consider that he's locked up in 2011 for $12.5 million, and that looks pretty good right now. Gary Matthews, Jr. gets 5/$50 million? How does 3 years/$15.5 million for Coco Crisp look right now? Plus, the team's got an $8 million option for 2010. Jason Schmidt gets 3 years/$47 million? Gil Meche gets 5 years/$55 million? How does 3 years/$30 million for Josh Beckett look right now? How does a 2010 option year at $12 million look right now?

At the time of these signings, the media was saying "what the hell is Theo doing? These guys are under contract already! They haven't proven anything yet! $10 million a year for Beckett? What are you, nuts?" I wish I had the transcripts. Who's crazy now? Well- maybe I should wait until next week to answer that question. There's still the little question of Matsuzaka to address first...

Closing the Deal

2006-12-07T09:57:00.000-08:00

The last major component the Red Sox seem to need in this offseason is a presence at the back end of the bullpen. The Sox need a solid, reliable, even dominant closer. Obviously, things with Daisuke Matsuzaka are still up in the air, and I'll not believe that all possibilities of a Manny trade are extinguished just yet, but this team, as currently constructed, is a pretty solid one all the way into the bullpen.

There are a couple of possibilities I've heard, have thought about, and are being speculated upon. The first is Eric Gagne. Gagne is a free agent, another client of Scott Boras, and one of those high-risk, high-reward projects that Theo seems to like so much in a pitching staff. Looking at moves like Scott Williamson, Chad Fox, Bobby Howry, Wade Miller, Matt Mantei, and David Wells, we see that Theo likes guys with tremendous upside and some history of great pitching effectiveness who have had some relatively recent injury/ineffectiveness issues. Taking these risks into account, Theo gambles with incentive-laden deals or wait-and-see type contracts. Looking at that list I just put together, there are at least as many misses as hits. Only Williamson and Wells really contributed in a significant way.

Gagne could be one of these guys. Since his three year run from 2002-2004 of pitching over 80 innings and saving an average of 50 games a year, he's only pitched 15 innings in the last two years. His shoulder, knees, and arm have all been trouble. If I had to speculate, I would guess (given the beefy physique he sported in his prime and his high-stress delivery) that his body broke down somewhat- whether that was aided by some pharmaceutical side-effects I think is a fair question. Heck, if a beanpole like Guillermo Mota was hitting the juice...well, let's just stop there. If he's relatively healthy (a big IF) then I think I could get behind an incentivized deal- maybe like a $3 million base with two more threes kicking in based on appearances. Even in this market, and even for a Boras client, I don't see Gagne getting anywhere near his 2006 salary ($10 million) guaranteed.

There have been a couple of names floated in relation to Manny trades that are very interesting: Dodgers youngster Jonathan Broxton, who reminds me a lot of Bobby Jenks- real big fella, throws real hard; the Nationals' Chad Cordero, a very good young reliever who would have to be a part of a three-way deal (maybe with the Giants or Rangers?); and J.J. Putz from the Mariners. That's the name that really caught my attention. He was really really good last year. Thirty saves or so, and over 100 strikeouts in under 80 innings. That's throwing smoke. The trouble is, if you look at his stats the two previous years, he's only about half as good- literally. He goes from striking out about 5 batters per 9 innings to 10. Did he just figure it out? Did he tinker with his mechanics and make the leap? Is it just a fluke? Is it chemically-aided? Will he fall back to earth next year? Those and more questions may be academic only, as Manny may not be traded.

The fall-back option could still be internal. Though Keith Foulke has said he's not too interested in rejoining the Sox, they still have a potentially fat arbitration paycheck out there. It's possible (especially with his injury history) that Foulke won't get anywhere close to $7 million that he could get with the Sox. He might hold his nose and try to ignore Johnny from Burger King for one more year and re-prove himself as an elite closer. I'd take that. I like a guy with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove- especially if a big paycheck is dangling out there for him. Finally, the Sox may be in a position of turning back to Papelbon. I know that he probably wants to be a starter (and his agent sure as hell wants that), but if you were asked in late July of last year what young reliever would you choose to build your bullpen around, you'd choose Papelbon, hands down. Over Cordero, over Jenks, over Putz, maybe even over Zumaya. Papelbon's got the goods. He could be the best closer in baseball for a bunch of years. I know you might cramp his style a bit, but that's not a terrible fallback position. If you can convince him he can help the team more from the bullpen, that's not so terrible.

Offensive Moves

2006-12-06T05:57:00.000-08:00

How you feel about the Red Sox these days probably will determine how you read the title of this post. If you read the first word to indicate the upgrades the Sox just made to their lineup's production, you probably like the signings of J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. If you believed that these moves offended the sensibilities of Red Sox fans, well, there you go. I provide cryptic and multifaceted blog entries so that everyone can enjoy them. A bit of gestalt to start your day.

In a flurry of activity, the Sox signed J.D. Drew to the anticipated five year, $70 million deal. Julio Lugo got four years and $36 million. Those are big dollar figures. They are both rather longer than the Sox probably wanted them to be. I would argue, however, that they are both better deals than the market was offering this year. J.D. Drew got fewer years and less money per year than Carlos Lee. Aside from some home run numbers, I don't think that there's much argument that J.D. Drew is a better player, a more productive player than Lee, and he's also younger and likely to be better throughout the length of the contract. Oh, yeah, and he's not a huge albatross defensively. Add to this that we're substantially upgrading right field (sorry Trot, we still love you) and providing an opportunity to spell Coco occasionally in center (as well as giving him less real estate to worry about on normal days), and I think J.D. is a good signing.

There are many in Boston who worry that signing J.D. Drew is setting him up for failure, because there's no way that he could replace Manny's bat, and he's too laid back for the Boston media. Well, if all indications from the Winter Meetings are right, he's NOT going to replace Manny's bat. Manny's bat may be right where it was last fall. Fourth in the order, right behind David Ortiz. If Manny doesn't completely tank it on purpose, the Sox would have a lineup of:

Youkilis
Lugo
Ortiz
Ramirez
Drew
Varitek
Lowell
Crisp
Pedroia

That's a pretty formidable group. You've got speed at the top and bottom of the order, major power in the middle, and on-base skills all throughout. That's the sort of roster construction the Sox had in 2003 and 2004.

The Lugo signing is a bit riskier, in my mind. I'll try not to focus too much on Lugo's very forgettable time in Los Angeles this year, and look more closely at what he'd done in Tampa for the year and a half prior to that. The thing I worry about is that this will turn into another Edgar Renteria. The one benefit is that Lugo has demonstrated he's ok with the American League, and the AL East at that. Ironically, the personal difficulties he's had in the past may actually have toughened him enough to handle this market. Let's call me guardedly optimistic about that.

So what's left for the Sox? Assuming Manny's staying (maybe a 70% chance of that now), the Sox still need relief help, particularly a closer, and a backup catcher. Is that all? Let me think some more about that.

Pitching Pitching

2006-12-05T08:24:00.000-08:00

Reports from the Winter GM Meetings in Orlando are funny things. There are the continued speculations that the four major teams in on the Manny Ramirez discussions (Padres, Dodgers, Mariners, and Rangers) have been given somewhat of an ultimatum by the Red Sox office. They are no longer in exploratory mode. They are only in listening mode, and they're only taking serious offers. The rumors are flying around like crazy, though- so much so that the rumors ARE the story, not the actual possibilities. Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal (one of the better Sox beat writers) actually devoted some extensive column time to a rumor about a potential three-way trade involving the Giants and the Nationals, where Chad Cordero would end up with the Sox- a rumor that he then completely debunked by saying it was categorically denied by several of the involved teams.

In other words, Sean could have written that "there is a rumor flying through the hotel bar that Steinbrenner is ordering Brian Cashman to trade Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Mike Mussina, and Mariano Rivera for Manny Ramirez, but both sides deny this rumor." What the hell have we learned? Is this journalism? I've said this before, but I'm not going to believe any deal is in the works or is going to happen until I hear it from Theo.

The one common thread in much of the rumors, however, is pitching, and reliable bullpen pitching in particular. It does not appear that the Sox would do a deal for Manny unless it involved a solid back of the bullpen guy. Certainly Scott Linebrink, Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez, Scot Shields, or Chad Cordero would fit that mold. Some power bat at first base (Adrian Gonzalez) or solid shortstop (Khalil Greene or Michael Young) would be welcome, as would some top prospects. Ultimately, though, one major thing has to be demonstrated- Manny really does want a trade. He's ten-and-five, remember, and can stay with the Sox if he wants to. He doesn't have to go anywhere. The fact that the Sox are even entertaining offers really must mean that he's made his desire to get out of Boston clear.

In other news (well, reports of news), it sounds as if Jon Lester's lymphoma is in remission. If that's true, that's wonderful news. The sooner Lester can stop focusing on getting healthy and the sooner he can start focus on getting into shape to pitch, the better. If we could even pencil in his name to a potential rotation that includes Matsuzaka, Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, Tavarez, and Clement- the Sox have many reasons to feel good going into 2007.

Best Week Ever

2006-12-04T06:14:00.000-08:00

We know that VH-1 has their usual stable of c-list comedians, former pop idols, bit characters on sitcoms, and former veejay Kennedy to comment on various cultural phenomena, whether it be a decade, the most awesomely bad love songs, or a weekly news roundup. In case NESN or Fox Sports New England is looking for an analogous band of fringe-celebrity wiseasses to comment on the Red Sox news, I'd just like to mention that I'm available. There should be plenty o' fodder this week as Theo brings his trusted assistants to the Winter GM meetings. This is where many of the Sox major moves this offseason should happen- or at least have their root. Specifically, there are a couple of things the Sox might do:

-Finalize a deal for J.D. Drew. There is so much smoke around this one, and has been for nearly a month that even with the newly closed-mouthed front office, there's got to be some truth to it. The number we keep hearing (I'll assume it's coming from Boras' camp) is four years, $56 million, with a fifth-year option that would take the total contract to around $70 million. The signing of a higher-profile RF was made even more likely this weekend when the Sox opted to decline offering arbitration to the original Dirt Dog, Trot Nixon. The Sox also declined arbitration offers to Gabe Kapler and Mark Loretta- but did offer one to Keith Foulke. This really just ensures that the Sox get some draft pick compensation when he signs with someone else (the Yankees, maybe??).

-Sign Julio Lugo. It is said that Lugo, who is undoubtedly the best shortstop available (though there are other trade longshots, like the Brewers' Bill Hall, that could be better), is leaning to signing with the Sox. He's apparently looking for 4 years/$36 million- just a million a year short of what Edgar Renteria got two years ago from this group. I don't like that contract, either in length or in salary, but this market has forced some questionable decisions. I'd be much more comfortable with 3/$24, but if the market continues like this for a couple of years, Lugo's contract is probably tradeable after the first or second year anyway. Is Jed Lowrie still projected as a 2B rather than an SS?

-Considering the Manny Ramirez options. I have not heard much talk or speculation of Manny going somewhere other than a west-coast team. The Padres have generated the most talk, with names like Jake Peavy, Scott Linebrink, Adrian Gonzalez (yes please) and Khalil Greene. The Dodgers have also been mentioned, with some top-tier prospects involved (Kemp and Broxton?), as have the Mariners. The Rangers seem to be interested, though, they have little interest in giving the Sox Michael Young in exchange. My personal prediction is that Manny won't get traded this week, but rather that Theo will zero in on the two or three teams who are most interested and play them off of each other for the next two weeks or so. By New Year's Day, Manny will be playing in a different time zone.

Southpaw from the Far East

2006-11-30T12:31:00.001-08:00

The Sox are going to announce officially this afternoon that they've signed Hideki Okajima. Reports are for a two or three year deal, probably at somewhere around $3 million a year. I haven't seen any translations or projections of how his very good strikeout numbers might be against MLB hitters, but I'm confident that this is far more than just a move to find a best friend and sake-drinking buddy for Matsuzaka...Do we have any numbers of how Matsui did against him back in Japan? That's a research project for me this weekend.

Full Pen, Empty Belli

2006-11-30T06:27:00.000-08:00

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, Manny Ramirez...and on and on. The big names have been bounced around like, in the words of the Swedish Chef, "poppin' corn in threeeee-deeee!" This has already been a very exciting offseason (despite the fact that actually no real moves have been made) and promises to get even more interesting. There is one thing that the Sox need to address, however, that could be nearly as important as any other- getting a backup catcher. With the ultimate realization that Doug Mirabelli's ability to catch a knuckleball just is not worth his complete absence of bat speed, the Sox are in the market for what is probably the greatest job in the world.

A backup catcher plays one day a week, maybe two, if you count pinch-hitting. He gets to hang out on the bench and in the clubhouse with the ballclub every day, goofing around with very little responsibilities. In Boston, with Varitek, there probably isn't even much game-planning or strategizing to do- Tek probably takes care of that. And hell, if you're just catching Wakefield, it's not as if you've got to decide whether to throw an inside slider or some high heat. I wonder if they even have signs for Wakefield. For all of this, you get paid somewhere between $600,000 and $1.5 million. Even if you occasionally embarrass yourself by missing a wicked knuckler, you're still making three to seven times what the President of the United States earns annually. That's a sweet gig.

But who will the Sox turn to? There was a lot of talk about Greg Zaun, who was probably the best-hitting backup catcher out there. After some false starts, he ultimately re-signed with the Blue Jays. Rod Barajas, the temp-to-hire catcher from the Rangers, is available now. It was thought that he would sign with the Jays, but that fell apart for some reason- my guess is salary. Barajas is probably the best available option, but he made $3.2 million with Texas last year, and still probably thinks of himself as at least a quasi-starter, or maybe super-backup, and may not like taking a pay cut to under $2 million. If he lingers long enough on the market, the Sox may be able to snatch him up. That's a tough game of chicken, though, because the Sox really do need someone decent. Todd Pratt, Mike Lieberthal, Mike Piazza(!), Sandy Alomar Jr., and Chris Widger are still out there, but they're all old, too expensive, or not likely to accept a backup role. Two-time gold glove winner Bengie Molina is still available. He had expressed some displeasure with the Blue Jays earlier this year over his lack of playing time, and the resigning of Zaun might make him less likely to rejoin the Jays. It would also, however, make him unlikely to join the Sox, unless we can work out some sort of division of labor that might help Tek rest up and regain some of his offensive form. That's probably a pipe dream. Oddly, one of the most viable options might actually be Einar Diaz. For those who watch NESN religiously, you'll remember him as the man Sean MacDonough referred to as "Hall of Famer Einar Diaz" when he was with Cleveland for the arrogant way he dealt with a couple of Pedro Martinez brushback pitches. He hasn't played really since 2005, but has the sort of veteran skills that might fit well in that role.

Now Everyone Wants a Japanese Pitcher!

2006-11-29T06:13:00.000-08:00

After I spent three long paragraphs and a lot of ranting and raving yesterday about how Larry Lucchino should lean on the Seibu Lions to "help out" with the Matsuzaka negotiations, they break a story that an MLB official- vice president of something or other- says that this sort of contract assistance would be verboten. Though in the article I read, the way that the MLB guy phrased it left some wiggle room. He said that the posting fee with the Lions was one deal, and the negotiations with Matsuzaka is another deal, and the two should not influence each other. It's sort of a "spirit" thing rather than a "letter" thing. I'm sure that there is some language in the description of the posting process to regulate this, so he's probably right. I'm also sure, however, that Larry Lucchino, Yale Law School grad, has read that language and is perfectly aware of what he can and cannot ask the Seibu Lions to do. I think ultimately what this may mean is that we won't actually know how the Lions will affect the negotiations- we won't be able to see the process above-board.

Meanwhile, it was announced that the Yankees won the bidding to negotiate with another Japanese pitcher- a 27-year old lefty named Kei Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers. Though it's clear he's no Matsuzaka, he does seem to be a quality arm- one of the top strikeout pitchers in NPB for the last three or four years. This is shaping up to be a very interesting sort of arms race- a perfect storm of big money washing into MLB, a clear lack of quality arms, big dollar signs in the eyes of Japanese teams, Japanese players wanting a big payday and the big stage of American Baseball, and the Red Sox looking like they're engaging the Yankees in a true spend-fest. Apparently, there is still another quality Japanese pitcher that could make the leap- a reliever for the Nippon Ham Fighters named Hideki Okajima. He hasn't been a closer (except for one year with the Yomiuri Giants), but has a good strikeout rate, at about 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings for his career. He's a free agent, so there's no posting fee to worry about. Word from the omniscient Buster Olney (has he reported any rumors that turned out to be really accurate in the last three years?) is that the Sox are talking to him about a two-year deal. Forget hot stove- this is hibachi time.

Finally, there are multiple reports today that the Sox and J.D. Drew are close to a multiyear deal, worth a reported $70 million over 5 years- which if my math is right works out to $14 million per. Gerry Callahan of WEEI and the Herald absolutely hates the possiblity of J.D. Drew playing for the Sox and getting paid that much, so I think that there's a strong possibility that this will be a good deal. In this market, the Sox can get a better player than Carlos Lee- a better overall hitter (fewer homers, I know) for fewer years and a lot less money. Looking at this deal independent of the Manny rumors and grumblings, this is good for the Sox. It gives them a high-quality right fielder, an excellent hitter in the five hole, and is not an outrageous contract relative to the market. He's not Manny. No one is. But he's a major upgrade on Trot Nixon, and he's a key piece to next year. If, of course, all of these reports are right.

Ganbatte, Lucchino-san! Ganbatte!

2006-11-28T08:18:00.000-08:00

I guess if only Nixon can go to China (or to San Francisco, who needs a decent outfielder), then only Larry Lucchino can go to Japan. Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino has been over in Japan "forging a long-term working relationship" with the Seibu Lions on behalf of the Red Sox. All reports seem to indicate, however, that he is somehow leaning on the Lions to be an active participant in the negotiations with Daisuke Matsuzaka. In other words, he's looking for a partial refund of that $51.1 million that the Sox can turn around and use to sweeten Matsuzaka's contract offer. Is this wise? Is he bringing some sort of dishonor to the whole process? Is the whole concept of dishonor and losing face as relevant in Japanese business as it was in the 1980's? Are we still talking about Gung Ho here?

As far as I'm concerned, business is business. Larry Lucchino has the potential of being a very abrasive guy, I think, but one thing he is not is stupid. Of the three (or four parties) involved in this negotiation, the Seibu Lions have the most to lose. If it falls apart, the Sox lose a starting pitcher, but successfully keep him away from the Yankees for a year and get back their $51.1 million. Matsuzaka loses his contract money and the MLB competition for a year, and comes back next year as a free agent. Scott Boras loses a year of fat commission but will get it back next year. But the Lions- they lose big. If this falls apart, they lose $51.1 million. They get Matsuzaka's pitching services for another year, which is good, but then lose him to free agency next year with little or no compensation. They are the ones that want to see this deal with the Sox happen the most.

So is it stupid or dishonorable of Lucchino to suggest that if talks stall between the Sox and Boras over, say $3 million per year- the Sox offer $11, he wants $14- wouldn't it be in the Lions' best interest to make up that difference? They might be out $9 million over three years, but they'd still be left with $42 million, which is still better than the Mets' offer of $40 million and a damn sight better than the squadoosh that they get if the deal falls apart. I'm not suggesting that the Sox deliberately negotiate with Boras in bad faith, i.e. intentionally lowball him (I've heard reports of $7-8 million per year, which I hope are either false, or standard first offers). But if there is some gap to be bridged, the Lions have got to at least consider helping out. And the Sox would have to be incredibly naive not to at least ask the question. I'm sure that a decent translator could help smooth out Lucchino's abrasiveness.

Outfield Options

2006-11-27T06:12:00.000-08:00

Over the long holiday weekend, it was announced that another piece of the free-agent-slugging-outfielder puzzle had fallen into place. Following closely on the heels of the Angels' announcement that they had signed Gary Matthews, Jr. to a 5/$50 million deal, the Astros announced that they had "won" the Carlos Lee sweepstakes. Carlos Lees gets 6 years, $100 million. It was rumored that the San Francisco Giants offered more, but of course Texas has no state income tax AND Lee owns a big ol' ranch down there in Texas, so he could commute to Minute Maid Park by Palomino. It's hard to put a dollar figure on those intangibles. Six years and a hundred mil for Carlos Lee. This is a guy who was considered the poor man's Magglio Ordonez when they both played for the White Sox, at a time when Magglio Ordonez was considered the poor man's Manny Ramirez. I know when you're starting with Manny, even small shifts down can still be impressive, but that's a brutal overpayment. I imagine that playing half his games at Minute Maid will probably keep Lee's numbers respectable for a few years, but this is just one crazy market.

I know that I probably shouldn't rail against the nutty contracts being doled out all over baseball, particularly when I am so much in favor of the insane dealings for Matsuzaka. But I am, and I'll continue to do so, for a couple of reasons. First, the Matsuzaka posting fee is not salary. Sure, it involves the acquisition of a single player, but it is more market-development money than anything. Plus, I'm not convinced the Sox aren't going to get some of that back under the table. Second, there is no property in baseball worth overspending for like an ace pitcher. Hitters come and go and have varying degrees of fungibility. But when you've got Roger Clemens or Pedro Martinez (circa 1999) or Curt Schilling (circa 2004) or Johan Santana (circa NOW), you open up the money bag for them. You back up that Brinks truck. These are the guys who can make possible contenders champions. I think Matsuzaka could be one of those guys. Third, I think that teams are overreacting to the apparent lack of decent power on the open market. Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Lee were really the only names out there, and the NL Central got them all. As a result, the Dodgers overpaid for Juan Pierre, and the Angels overpaid for Gary Matthews. The Giants are still out there, desperately trying to overpay for someone.

The Giants, like the Red Sox, are looking carefully at both J.D. Drew and Manny Ramirez. Apparently the White Sox might be as well, as might the Phillies, despite Pat Gillicks "headache" remarks about Manny. The Giants, likely losing Barry Bonds for next year (though he may still stagger back there if his market dries up enough- the A's still need a DH...) need a power bat in their outfield. Manny may fit the bill for the incredibly forgiving Giants fans. That would net the Sox some pitching, some prospects, and some salary space for J.D. Drew. I still think this may work out, though it is more of a gamble than I originally thought.

I checked into some numbers on this. Replacing Manny in left with Wily Mo Pena and replacing Trot in right with J.D. Drew wasn't as seamless as I thought. Manny is just so good, so productive that he warps most analysis. Using the Runs Created per game (RC/G) statistic found on Hardball Times, Manny has had a three-year run of 8.5/9.2/9.9. These are awfully good numbers. I'm using the per game numbers rather than cumulative numbers because both Trot and Wily Mo have had playing-time issues. Trot's numbers are 6.2/6.3/5.2. That 5.2 is this year, and may represent where he's headed as he ages. J.D. Drew has been 9.4/7.8/7.6, which is quite respectable. Wily Mo is at 6.1/4.5/5.4, which may be all across the board for reasons of youth, position and team uncertainty, or just downright flakiness. Depending on how you look at it or weigh it, the Sox could be losing a run or two per game with the rebuilt outfield. The defense will be better, particularly with Drew in right, but that's not great. That's especially not great if you have to pay Drew Carlos Lee-type money. That's almost Manny money, and part of the point is to dump Manny's money. It's also to dump Manny, I guess, if you believe the stuff that Dan Shaughnessy is writing about his end-of-year quitting.

As I type this I also checked one more possibility- since the Orioles are also looking for a slugging outfielder and have a well-paid malcontent in their midst, a Manny-for-Miguel trade could still be an option. Miguel Tejada fits a couple of needs- one for a middle-of-the-order bat, and the other for one hell of a shortstop. The numbers? Well, they aren't as good as I thought. His three year RC/G is only 7.5/6.5/6.4 which is good for a shortstop, but not the production (nor the trendline) you'd want to see.

So what to do? What to do? You tell me.

Thinking of Thanking

2006-11-24T06:39:00.000-08:00

Before I rush out and join the throngs of shoppers on this day after Thanksgiving, I thought I would pause and consider some of the good things about the recent past, present, and near future about these Red Sox that deserve some gratitude:

1) Bill Mueller for giving us his last really good years and helping us to the 2004 World Series. I trust he will be as productive and as professional in his retirement as he was on the field.
2) The signing of David Ortiz to a long-term contract at the start of the 2006 season.
3) Mark Loretta's walk-off homer on Patriot's Day.
4) David Ortiz' walk-off single in late July, to end my first game at Fenway.
5) The experience of my first game at Fenway, and my father along with me.
6) The emergence of Jonathan Papelbon, the hope of tomorrow.
7) The grizzled persistence and leadership of Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield.
8) David Ortiz breaking Jimmy Foxx's Red Sox home run record.
9) The Yankees not winning the World Series (again).
10) The late-season emergence of Julian Tavarez as a reborn starter.
11) The excitement of the Daisuke Matsuzaka sweepstakes.
12) The prospect of having (on paper, at least) the most exciting and talented rotation in baseball for 2007.
13) The prospect of another two or three months of hot stove talk, especially in an off-season environment as heated as this one.
14) The coming of the Dustin Pedroia era.
15) The return to health, and to the rotation, of Jon Lester.
16) The development of the 2005 and 2006 draft classes- the best in all of baseball.
17) Not having Gary Sheffield end up on the Red Sox.
18) Not paying $50 million for either Juan Pierre or Gary Matthews, Jr.
19) Another year at Fenway.
20) Another shot at another title.

Happy Thanksgiving. Safe shopping. See you Monday.

The Third Way- no, the Fifth Way

2006-11-22T06:22:00.000-08:00

If you read Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract, you know that he outlines his "Win Shares" statistical system. Basically, it takes into account both annual and per-game performances of players to assign numerical values on their playing. Win shares over 20 per year represent a very good season. Over 30 is an MVP-type season. For some context, in 2004, Albert Pujols had 40 win shares, which is an incredibly good season, almost a unanimous MVP-type season. The problem is Barry Bonds had 53 that year. This year, Pujols had 39 win shares, and Ryan Howard had 31.
Miguel Cabrera, Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright all had more than Ryan Howard.

In the AL, Jeter led the way with 33 win shares. Joe Mauer was actually second with 31. Ortiz was third, and Manny was fourth. Coming in in fifth place, with 27 win shares (tied with Raul Ibanez, by the way) was your 2006 MVP, Justin Morneau. I know the voters don't vote on win shares. I doubt if most voters know what win shares are. Let's take a slightly less esoteric statistic- Runs Created. Again, Jeter leads the way, with 138. Behind him are David Ortiz, Grady Sizemore, and Jim Thome. In fifth place (tied with Ibanez and Travis Hafner) is Justin Morneau, your 2006 MVP. He had 121 runs created. The difference of 17 between him and Jeter is the same as the difference between Morneau and his teammate Michael Cuddyer. 17 runs created is equivalent to about four wins. Jeter was four wins better than Morneau, and Papi was more than two wins better.

To sum all of this up, in the National League, voters overlooked the guy who was clearly the best player on a contending team (Pujols) in favor of a guy who had gaudy HR/RBI numbers on a team that didn't even finish in the playoffs. In the American League, the voters not only ignored the best statisical player on a contending team (Jeter) AND the guy with gaudy HR/RBI numbers on a team that didn't even finish in the playoffs (Ortiz) but they went with a guy who was not even the most valuable player on his own team. Joe Mauer was more important to the Twins than Justin Morneau. On a game-by-game basis, both Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano were more valuable to the Twins.

So why Morneau? For one, he avoids another year of Papi vs. Yankee debate. For two, he had a very good September, like Vladimir Guererro a couple of years ago. Oh wait, he DIDN'T have that good a September. He did hit .348 that month, but he only had 2 homers and 19 RBI. That was his second-worst month. How about August? Not much better. He hit .294 with four homers and 22 RBI. In August and September, when his team was falling apart around him and he didn't have much of Manny to protect him in the lineup, Big Papi hit 17 homers. Down the stretch, the Greatest Power Threat the Twins have had since Harmon Killebrew hit SIX homers. Six. Is that clutch? Is that putting your team on your back and carrying them to the playoffs? Now I'm not saying that Papi is the best choice for MVP. I'm saying that if you're not going to give it to him, you better give it to Jeter, and vice-versa. I'm just trying to figure out why the voters acted this way. It wasn't statistics. It wasn't huge numbers. It wasn't even the most remarkable player on a playoff team. It was a good player having a very good year. Most Valuable? Not even close.

Want to know the truth? Ok. The truth is I'm still bitter about dropping Morneau from my fantasy team this year. I already had Papi at first and when Morneau started slowly, I dropped him in favor of speed- Chone Figgins or someone. I know. Stupid. But that doesn't mean my arguments are less valid, does it? Does it?

Pair of Farewells

2006-11-21T07:33:00.000-08:00

A couple of former Sox infielders made some big decisions yesterday. Alex Gonzalez seems to be on his way to the Reds, who are overpaying for his services- in the range of three years, $14 or $15 million. I would be among the first to admit that it is a rare pleasure watching him play short. Had he played more than 115 games or so this year, I would have been hugely offended about his not being awarded the gold glove. Combine that with his, well, let's say anemic production with a bat in his hand, and I just don't see the Sox investing that kind of money for the next three years. I know, if Edgar Renteria is worth 4/$40 then isn't A-Gon worth 3/$15? Well, let's hold on. Renteria wasn't worth $40 million. I don't know what the front office will do for a shortstop. Julio Lugo looms large out there, but with this market, if Alex Gonzalez gets $5 million a year, Lugo's gonna get overpaid too. I just hope if it's us, it's not by too much. But hey, it could always be worse, right? We could have just made the mistake of signing Juan Pierre to a 5 year deal for $45 million...Enjoy those singles, Dodger fans.

In sadder news, Bill Mueller announced his retirement. After only 30-something games with the Dodgers this year, his knees, which have been crumbling for years, finally reached the point of no return. Of all of the guys from the 2003-2004 glory days, I think I'll miss that scarecrow most of all. He was not only a very good player, but he was as likeable a guy as you could ask for- a great teammate, a modest guy, someone who realized how lucky he was to be doing what he was doing. I think it's a no-brainer that Ned Colletti decided to keep Billy around as a special advisor. I recently read Sam Walker's book "Fantasyland," in which Bill Mueller plays a prominent role in the plot, and on Sam Walker's Tout Wars rotisserie team. The vignette in which Sam Walker shares a Schafer beer with Bill Mueller after a big game will stay with me for a long time. We'll see you 'round, Billy. Don't be a stranger.

Elsewhere, Ryan Howard pulled off a minor upset in winning the NL MVP over Albert Pujols. I know all of the statheads out there could never comprehend why voters don't see that Pujols easily was more valuable than Howard, given the differences in doubles, OBP, defense, etc. The fact remains, however, that some numbers are just really hard for the voters to ignore. 58 homers and 149 RBI is really really big. Those two guys were the clear one-two for the voting, and that outburst just tipped the balances. A bit more power trumped a lot more overall value and consistency. I can't get too upset about it.

I can't get too upset about it until this afternoon, of course. This afternoon, this same situation will be reversed. A huge power output (54 homers, 137 RBI) is going to lose to some overall, consistent value. When Derek Jeter wins the MVP over David Ortiz, the voters gonna have some 'splainin' to do. How can you say that in the NL, the power output of one guy was enough to beat out the clear statistical superiority (in a runs-created framework) of the other guy, but say just the opposite in the AL? Is it because Ortiz is a DH? It can't be because the Sox missed the playoffs- the Phillies missed it also.

Maybe I'm getting worked up over nothing- maybe Ortiz will surprise us and win the award after all.

Right.

The Wealthiest Alfonso

2006-11-20T06:21:00.000-08:00

Edgardo Alfonso had five or six excellent seasons, but didn't really stick around long enough to parlay them into huge dollars. Alfonso Ribiero has always been a supporting character- second fiddle to Ricky Schroeder and then Will Smith. He was last seen on Celebrity Duets, trying to survive in the shadow of the great Hal Sparks. Something tells me that soap-opera star Kristin Alfonso isn't pulling down eight figures a year.

No, my friends, it is Alfonso Soriano who is smiling today. In addition to winning the sweepstakes for wealthiest Alfonso, he will also get to patrol the friendly confines of Wrigley Field's outfield grass for the next eight years. For this service, he will be paid a reported $136 million. That, if my math serves me, is $17 million a year. I know- I thought that after the Derek Jeter $189 million deal, we were just about done with these. I suppose I figured that the Beltran contract was a bit of a hiccup, but that the overall market direction was down. No more six, seven, eight or more-year deals. I guess I was wrong. I also guess my vision of seeing Soriano in a Sox uniform is also probably incorrect. This means that the options such as J.D. Drew (yes) and Carlos Lee (no!) are more likely for the Sox. This also means that the market has been established a bit higher than we anticipated this off-season, and some players are going to get rich. Probably not Soriano rich- I think that most teams recognize that Carlos Lee is probably Mo Vaughan waiting to happen and that he isn't worth more than four years. I think that Barry Zito, as reliable a pitcher as he's been, isn't going to get more than five or six years, and fall short of $100 million. Even Matsuzaka isn't going to see much more than the $51 million the Sox paid for the right to talk with him. But there's a long way to fall from $136 million and still be plenty rich.

One potential benefit of this lucrative players' market is that Manny becomes not only more tradeable, but more tradeable at a higher leverage to the Sox. He's only got two years left, with a total value of just under $40 million. He still has two option years and is a 5/10 guy who can veto trades, but if he's amenable, I don't see the Sox having to pick up much if any of his salary this year. The likely target at this point seems to be the Angels, where owner Arte Moreno continues to crow loudly about making a big move to get a big bat in the middle of the order to pair up with Vlad Guerrero. Losing out on Soriano makes someone like Manny an even more attractive target. Manny may be big money, but he's short-term, and is a more proven quantity than someone like Carlos Lee or J.D. Drew. Could we shake loose Chone Figgins, Scot Shields, and a prospect for Manny? Could we get K-Rod and Chone Figgins? I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.

Drew Rumors

2006-11-17T12:36:00.000-08:00

I said in a recent post that with the new Sox front office focus on confidentiality, I wouldn't put too much stock in rumors. That said, I am going to take the report from the Rocky Mountain News that the Sox are offering a 2 year/$30 million contract to outfielder J.D. Drew with a big grain of salt. As far as I can tell, the Rocky Mountain News is the only paper/outlet reporting this. None of the Boston papers are independently reporting or verifying this. Gammons doesn't have this. I don't think it's necessarily accurate. Let's also not forget how off everyone's "inside information" was on the Matsuzaka numbers. I'm going to wait a bit on this one.

The pundits on the radio were all up in arms about how signing Drew is a huge mistake because he'd never live up to the expectations the Boston media and fans would place on him. He's too laid back to replace Nixon's "Dirt Dog" reputation, and he's not talented enough to replace Manny's bat. I think they're missing the point on a couple of levels. Drew would out-perform Nixon easily, both offensively and defensively. Second, laid-back is not necessarily bad for Boston. Wasn't Johnny Damon laid back? He was a California-space cadet-type also. He was an idiot, by his own styling. That helped him in Boston, it didn't hurt him. Finally, if we're looking at Drew trying to replace Manny- that also means that Manny may be shopped and traded. We need to look at this as a total package replacement. Currently, we have Manny in left, a big hole in right, and Wily Mo with no position. Bring in Drew for right field, slot Wily Mo in left, trade Manny for pitching and prospects, and you may have something there. Wily Mo could be an adequate defender in left, Drew is a plus defender in right, and could spell Coco in center. Offensively, the combination of Drew and Wily Mo could be almost equal to what you're losing in Manny and Nixon. Add to that some pitching and prospects, and the Sox may come out of this all right.

I'm speculating wildly of course, and it's based on very little- less than very little, if you consider that this is really only one published report, from two time zones away. It's very interesting, though, and not one that with which I'd be too unhappy. A Pena-Crisp-Drew outfield, if healthy, could be pretty promising. I'm not saying I wouldn't like a Ramirez-Crisp-Soriano outfield, with Pena rotating through all of those spots as the fourth guy, but the other option isn't bad.

Surfing and Pondering

2006-11-16T09:44:00.000-08:00

I really like it when someone out there who is both smarter than you and more energetic than you writes a really good article that answers a question you've been pondering. Actually, I hate it because it makes me remember that I'm neither bright nor energetic enough, but I'll take the information where I can get it. David Gassko at The Hardball Times has written a really good article about what Matsuzaka might be worth to the Red Sox, both in terms of on-field performance and in off-field Japanese revenues. I'd click the link if I was you, but the bottom line is, the Red Sox know what they're doing.

Catching up on awards

2006-11-16T06:28:00.000-08:00

As we wait with baited breath at word of progress in the Matsuzaka negotiations, there's a moment to catch up and offer some thoughts about the awards that came out in the last couple of days. Before I do, though, let me say that one unfortunate consequence of the front office following the return of Theo is that we can count on fewer and fewer leaks- or at least fewer accurate ones. Theo seems determined to keep a tight lid on internal stuff, so I wouldn't believe much of the speculation. In just the last two days, I've heard that Matsuzaka will get $8-9 million per year and I've also heard $14 million per. Both of those were from "insider" reports. I'm not believing anything until it comes out of Theo's face.

Brandon Webb and Johan Santana picked up Cy Young hardware this week. Johan was a no-brainer. He was the first pitcher in a couple of decades, I believe, to win the pitching triple crown throughout all of baseball. A couple of years ago, he led the AL in wins, strikeouts, and ERA, as did Pedro back in 2000, I believe. But this year, Santana's numbers were tops in BOTH leagues. That doesn't happen often. Curiously, had his own young teammate Francisco Liriano stayed healthy, there may have actually been some opportunity for debate. As for Webb, he was as reasonable choice as any in a pretty weak NL. Carlos Zambrano, Chris Carpenter, and Trevor Hoffman all had decent years. No one was dominant- heck, no one even came up with more than 17 wins. Webb has been an underappreciated pitcher since he entered the league- Dontrelle Willis and his big leg kick and big smile stole the Rookie of the Year award from Webb a few years back, and he also had to live in the shadow of the Big Unit for a couple years. It's nice to see him get some recognition- he's probably the best groundball/strikeout pitcher since Kevin Brown in his prime.

As predicted, Joe Girardi wins Manager of the Year after getting fired. All he did was take an incredibly young team with a payroll around $15 million (a TOTAL payroll) and make them wild card contenders. Bud Selig really needs to use his "good of the game" powers to reconsider Marlins ownership. They could really have something special down there. Jim Leyland picks up AL Manager of the Year for succeeding where Alan Trammel failed. I think some of this had to do with another year of maturation with his pitchers, and part of it represents an actual ability of certain managers to make a difference. Leyland made a difference. That's pretty cool.

An Even Better Part of Valor

2006-11-15T06:12:00.000-08:00

Sometimes there's a thin line between boldness and stupidity. Or between crazy and crazy-like-a-fox. Last night, it was announced that the Red Sox won the Matsuzaka sweepstakes, bidding a reported $51.1 million (one million and ONE!!!) for the rights to negotiate a contract with Matsuzaka and his agent, Scott Boras. They have until midnight, December 14, to come up with a contract. If they don't, the Seibu Lions must return the windfall to the Sox, Matsuzaka must return to pitch for the Lions next year, earning something like $3 million, and then try again next year when he'll be a free agent. The hammer seems to be in the hand of the Red Sox at this point. The Lions really want to see a deal done. Matsuzaka really wants to see a deal done. We know Boras wants to see a deal done. The Sox paid a ton for that hammer, but they've got it now.

Before we get to the question of what sort of contract Matsuzaka might receive (or be worth), let's look at the question of the Sox' astounding bid. They apparently out-bid the second-place team, the Mets, by about $10 million. There were a few teams in the high 30's and low 40's. I am, more and more, seeing this huge sum of money as a marketing investment, and don't worry about it at all as a an "on-field" expenditure. If Matsuzaka signs, how many Red Sox shirts with Matsuzaka's number will be sold in Japan? How many bobble-heads? How much will Japanese cable companies pay to broadcast Matsuzaka's starts? (Jerry Remy is going to have to start greeting the Japanese folks as well- "Konichiwa to besuboru on NESN!") There could be a Matsuzaka reality-show in Japan. What's that worth? This is a ton of money, but it isn't thrown down a hole. The Sox have the money, they have the marketing savvy, and they have the motives to make a big, bold move. The other teams can grumble, but the Sox stepped up. As far as I'm concerned, I can barely remember the pain of this past season. The Sox needed to make a big move. This is one hellacious move- I can't wait until pitchers and catchers report.

The more relevant question now is what is Matsuzaka worth on the field. What sort of contract will be acceptable to everyone. As I see it, he'll need at least four years. The Sox aren't going to accept a one- or two-year deal. It would have to be Pedro-esque. Maybe three years plus two option years. There have been some really good analysis of Matsuzaka's pitching, how it translates and how his history may have affected him. Baseball Prospectus did a really nice job of translating his stats, and argues that over the past two years (a better pitcher gauge- position players usually use three years), he's been as dominant as everyone but Johan Santana. That's pretty good. The Hardball Times argues that despite the fact that Matsuzaka's thrown over 1400 innings by the time he's 26, there's actually a good history there. Folks like Fernando Valenzuela, Tom Seaver, Greg Maddux, and Don Sutton are all comps. That's not a bad thing either. Ultimately, I can see something like 3 years/$40 million plus two option years at maybe $15 or $16 million each. Get it done, Epstein-san!

Leaks

2006-11-14T12:35:00.000-08:00

It's still three and a half hours before the official announcement on Daisuke Matsuzaka, but most media outlets are pegging the Red Sox as winners. If you're looking for proof, check out Matsuzaka's page on Japanese Ballplayers.com- it's a site that tracks, among other things, how Japanese ballplayers are doing in the U.S. Check out the logo they have next to Matsuzaka's name...

The Shortstop Awards

2006-11-14T06:18:00.000-08:00

The World Series MVP
The NL Comeback Player of the Year
The NL Batting Champion
The NL Rookie of the Year

What do those four award winners from 2006 have in common? They're all shortstops, or were for a substantial portion of their career, yes. They are all on NL teams? Yes. But look closer. David Eckstein, Nomar Garciaparra, Freddy Garcia, and Hanley Ramirez were all shortstops with the Red Sox or their high minor leagues. I used to think only the Brewers were cursed by the phenomenon of players getting really good after they leave Milwaukee, but it does appear that the Sox suffer from this as well. The latest hit to Sox pride came yesterday as Hanley Ramirez won the Rookie of the Year.

The second guessers of Red Sox Nation will be happy to question the deal that sent Hanley, along with Anibal Sanchez (he of the no-hitter) to the Marlins for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell (and the flipped, steriod-addled Guillermo Mota). It sure does look questionable, with Beckett's mixed results this year, and the Sox facing another question at shortstop for 2007. I still think that you have to make the move. You have a chance of getting one of the very best young (proven) pitchers in the majors for a promising but dicey prospect. I would still defend the Sox pulling the trigger on that. And heck, Lowell was supposed to be an albatross, but he was terrific last year.

The other element of the trade I wonder about is the Renteria effect. Renteria was an all-star before he got to Boston. In Boston, he stunk. When he left, he got better. Beckett was really good with the Marlins. He got to Boston, and kind of stunk also. Is it Boston's doing? I think it's probably safe to say that not everyone can succeed in Boston's atmosphere. I'm tempted to think that maybe Hanley was one of those guys. He seemed easily distracted and impressionable. With a slow start, or a mid-season slump, the media and rabid fan base may have carved him up. He had the chance to blossom in Florida out of that crazy scrutiny. Good for him- but not necessarily too bad for us. There's no guarantee those results would have been transferrable to the Hub.

And don't get me started on Papelbon finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Verlander did have a good year, and pitched decently. Papelbon had an historic year. One of the best relief performances ever- almost Eckersley-esque. Ahh, screw 'em. Pap can win the Cy Young next year.

In other exciting news, this evening will bring the Matsuzaka announcement. After some rumors that the Rangers may have had the inside track, pretty much every news outlet (which is to say ESPN and everyone who reads or believes ESPN) is now saying that the Red Sox have placed the highest bid with the Seibu Lions, a reported $42 million for the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka. I'll believe it when it happens, but I have to say that if you don't think of that money as salary (which it is not) and instead think of it as a marketing investment, it is not only easier to take, but it even makes some sense.

Happy Matsuzaka Eve!

2006-11-13T09:15:00.000-08:00

The reports from over the really big pond today indicate that the Seibu Lions, current holders of the rights to pitching pinup Daisuke Matsuzaka have closed out the bidding for the negotiation rights and will convene their meeting to decide about awarding these rights tomorrow morning (U.S. Eastern time). It is anticipated, by every website or radio report I have heard, that the Red Sox are very much in the game to win those negotiating rights.

Winning the negotiating rights ("the posting fee") could cost the Sox, or whoever wins this thing, upwards of $30 million. That, however, does not count against the payroll for luxury tax purposes. This is one reason why I think the Sox could be major players for Matsuzaka (and Iwamura, for that matter). The Sox, since the Henry/Lucchino/Werner team took over, has been all about growing their markets. Beginning with those silly "Red Sox Nation" membership cards to adding seats at Fenway to redoing their TV and radio deals, they want to grow this pie. Japan is a big fat, well-funded, and largely untapped market. Sure, the Yankees and the Mariners have somewhat of a following, but the Sox? Nada. Even when we had Hideo Nomo, management didn't try to spin that into Japanese broadcast revenues the way that this front office would. Investing $35 million for Matsuzaka and maybe $20 million for Iwamura would kick open those doors, like Captain Larry and the Red Ships sailing into Tokyo harbor. Stop me if I'm getting too carried away here.

In other news, the Yankees sent Jaret Wright off to Baltimore, where he'll pitch next year. The O's have to pay only $3 million of his $7 million salary, with the Yankees eating the rest. It's basically an admission that they blew this one. At least Wright will still be stinking up the mound in the AL East, but this time the Yankees will benefit as much as the Sox do.

Also, Aramis Ramirez and the Cubs settled on a new deal, something like 5 years, $73 million. I like that deal. I certainly wouldn't have paid Ramirez that much, but if truth be told, that's probably slightly below what he would have gotten from another team on the open market this offseason. Heck, he signed only a couple of weeks into the free-agent season. He got his security, and gets to continue being a fan favorite at Wrigley, where it's really cool to be a fan favorite. The Cubs get one of the top-producing third basemen in the game for a few more years at a slight discount. It's all good in the Windy City.

That's All Foulke

2006-11-10T13:23:00.000-08:00

My first reaction was to be really surprised. Then, I got a little worried. Keith Foulke, in making his decision not to pick up his $3.75 million player option, signalled that this could be a very expensive offseason for the Red Sox. Unless he somehow felt that his tenure in Boston had become so unbearable that making millions and millions of dollars wouldn't salve it, chances are that he thought (or his agent thought) that he could get a better deal elsewhere. Someone (or many someones) out there might be willing to go north of $4 more per year for at least two years of Keith Foulke? Maybe I wasn't the only one charmed by his stellar eleven innings in September.

If that's true, that could be a minor harbinger of a market shift for relief pitching. Maybe I'm being overly dramatic, especially given the huge deal given to B.J. Ryan last year. It is certainly possible that somewhat proven commodities at the back end of the bullpen are going to be highly valued this winter. Unless the Sox can somehow steal Brad Lidge from the Astros, I can't see Theo overpaying for anyone that's available out there- it may be much more likely that we try to solve this bullpen thing from inside the organization. That makes me a little nervous.

Other surprising and potentially good news, though- J.D. Drew surprised both me and the Dodgers (and trust me, I'm much harder to surprise) by opting for free agency. This, for me, makes two free agent outfielders I'd love to see on the Sox next year. Soriano, of course, and now Drew. Personalities and work ethic aside, I think J.D. Drew pretty much represents the production that everyone wishes we got out of Trot Nixon. He's been injury-prone in the past, as well, but he's been clean and very productive the last few years, in the hitting-light environs of Chavez Ravine. He basically produces to your textbook .300/.400/.500 line, with two dozen homers and nearly a hundred RBI. That's a solid corner outfielder. I'll do some digging to see if he might be interested in the friendly confines of Fenway Park. This is getting interesting.

Hot Corner, Hot Stove

2006-11-09T06:30:00.000-08:00

Overlooked in my fascination with Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka (I name I can now spell without looking it up) is the presence of another intriguing Japanese player that has been posted by his team, the Yakult Swallows. A third baseman by the name of Akinori Iwamura. He, like Matsuzaka is 26 or 27- maybe 26 now but will be 27 next season? He's won five gold gloves at third, and for each of the last three years, he's hit over .300 with over 30 homers. The Sox have apparently shown some interest in bidding for his services.

The big question of high-profile Japanese position players, of course, is how their skills and numbers will translate to MLB. Not everyone is Ichiro. Not everyone is Hideki Matsui (who did struggle a bit in his first season with the Yankees). For every Ichiro, there's a Kazuo Matsui. Actually, as I think about it, that's not true. There's really only one Kaz Matsui. He was a bust, no question. But So Taguchi is not a great player, but he wasn't great in Japan either. He is what he is- a decent outfielder, a bit of a banjo hitter, and a bench guy. Tadahito Iguchi, the second baseman for the White Sox, was actually quite good- producing roughly equivalent numbers to Mark Loretta with even a bit more power.

So I think I've talked myself into this a bit. I don't think that any Japanese position player has had as much power in the U.S. as they did in Japan, but you can't expect that. Hideki Matsui averaged about 36 homers in Japan, but has been around 25 in New York. But hand-eye coordination, in fielding and in basic hitting, can be roughly translated. So, the question is, what would you pay for a gold glove third baseman in his prime who is probably good for a .280/.350/.440 line and 20 homers?

Would you trade Mike Lowell? As much as I like him, I'd have to say yes. He's really in a perfect spot to be traded. He had a very good bounceback year- showing that his 2005 with the Marlins was fluky and he can still produce. He sure has hell can still play the position. He's only got one year left on his deal, and could certainly help someone. Finally, he's clearly not the Sox long-term solution at third. Obviously Eric Hinske and Kevin Youkilis can each play a bit at third, but someone young, with more upside, and better defense would be more preferable for the longer term.

The real question, of course, is how much all of this will shake up Jerry Remy's "Yo-Lo-Go-Lo-Va" infield. If you've got Pedroia at second, Iwamura at third, maybe Lugo at short, that's not as fun. That's Yo-Ped-Lu-Iwa-Va. Well, if you've had enough to drink, maybe it could still sound like Santana.

Not Fully Closed Out

2006-11-08T07:59:00.000-08:00

The Sox yesterday officially declined their $7.5 million team option on Keith Foulke yesterday. That's not a huge shocker. After a year and a half of injury and ineffectiveness, there's no way in hell that Foulke could be considered worth that. So now Keith has 48 hours to decide if he thinks he can get more than $3.75 million on the open market. If he doesn't think that, he can exercise his player option and return to the Sox for one more year at that rate. That's probably the smart bet at this point. One wrinkle with that is that Keith Foulke never really seemed to enjoy pitching for the Sox that much. Even after pitching brilliantly in the 2004 postseason, it didn't take him more than 15 minutes to start bitching that he should have been the MVP over Manny. I happen to agree with him, but let's enjoy the moment for a while first, shall we?

At any rate, especially given Mike Timlin's $2.8 million contract, there's still an outside shot that Keith Foulke could believe he's worth at least $4 million and could get that (he might be right) from a quieter-market team where he doesn't have ten thousand Angry Bill types screaming about him on talk radio.

If he stays, though, there's the question of how to use him. Theo made some statements yesterday or today about how the Sox are very much in the market for a "closer," whether by free agency or a trade. Theo hinted that they had some internal options as well, which is true, but is also gotta be largely blowing smoke. It's not going to be Timlin. It's not going to be Delcarmen or Hansen. Well, it might be, but those aren't really good options. I'd argue at this point that their best internal option might be...Keith Foulke.

Clearly, when healthy, the guy can be an elite closer. When his fastball is around 87-88 mph and his change is at 78-81 mph, he's really really effective. I know it's an incredibly small sample size, but just look at his September appearances. 11 appearances, 11.1 innings, 10 hits, 9 strikeouts, 1 walk, a WHIP right around 1.0. That's a closer-type line. I don't know if these were high-leverage innings or not (actually, by September, the Sox didn't have any high-leverage innings), but he seemed in that brief time, to have recaptured some of his vintage form. Is that the real Keith returned to save us, or is that a blip on the overall downward spiral? I wouldn't mind paying to find that out.

A Few Good Men

2006-11-07T08:56:00.000-08:00

Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe has spent the last week or so working through the Boston lineup, assessing existing players and looking at potential replacements. Today's entry was on first base, where the big question is "do we need a first baseman with more power?" Kevin Youkilis, the position incumbent, was not a prototypical power guy. He hit 13 homers. Nick Swisher and Paul Konerko hit 35 apiece. Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols hit about 87 apiece. Can't we do better than Youk? Well, the options that Edes presents were, frankly, a little depressing. Scott Hatteberg, Carlos Pena, Aubrey Huff, and Scott Spezio were the other four "probable" options for Edes. Oh my goodness. It's an orgy of riches. None of these guys, with the possible exception of a complete revelation from Pena, would provide even league-average power for the position. Unless you're going to teach Wily Mo to play first or fire up the wayback machine to get the Mo Vaughan from 12 years ago, there's not much out there. For now, Youk has the advantage of being both cheap (still a year from salary arbitration) and capable of getting on base. His .381 OBP was among the league leaders for first basemen. The major problem is, of course, if you punt a little power at one of the traditional power spots, you've got to find it somewhere else.

In a reverse segue, that brings us to the potential signing of Alex Cora to a 2-year extention of service with the Red Sox. Although it's easy to drink the Jerry Remy kool-aid on Cora and say that "every time he's in there, he does something good to help the team," the fact is that Cora finished the year with a .238 average and a slugging percentage under .300. That might not even be acceptable from Ozzie Smith or Bill Mazeroski. It's just really low. It just is not a lot of production. The point, however, is that this isn't a big deal one way or the other. Cora's a backup. He's a utility guy who can play anywhere in the infield and give you very good defense whenever it's required of him. If he gets a hit, good. If he's playing enough that you notice that he never hits a double, that's a problem. I'm counting on the front office to understand this also, and have a plan in place. From the buzz, it sounds a lot like that plan might be Julio Lugo. I'm not as sold on his offense as many others are, but then again, the offensive options at shortstop aren't what they once were (read: 1999). The charges of spousal abuse still bug me a bit, but, they were dropped, right? Eh. Well, I've come to sort of like Julian Tavarez. Maybe I'll like Lugo. If the Blue Jays don't snap him up first, that is.

Another good man went down today, much to the dismay of my fellow midwesterners in Minnesota. After going 12-3 and posting an ERA down around 2, rookie pitcher Francisco Liriano underwent Tommy John surgery today on his pitching arm. He'll be out pretty much all of 2007. This puts a major kink in the Twins hopes for repeating as Central Division champs. No Radke, no Liriano, a less than stellar development of Jesse Crain. That's not good. Terry Ryan has a way of pulling amazing prospects out of his hat, but it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. I think that division will be the most interesting and competitive in baseball again next year- with the Indians returning to the party, and the White Sox sticking around, but slipping a bit.

Finally, I just want to give some love to Retrosheet. The other night, I was watching "A Few Good Men" on TV, and there was a scene in Tom Cruise's apartment when he had the ballgame on in the background. The announcer said something like "The ball goes over Puckett's head! And here comes Ripken! The Twins streak is over!" Out of curiousity, I wanted to find out what that game was. Knowing the movie came out in 1992, I looked at the 1991 season. The Twins had a 15-game winning streak that year that came to an end on June 17 at the hands of the Orioles (the film took place in the DC/Annapolis area). Cal Ripken scored from first on a double in the bottom of the ninth to win it. It was just nice to be able to take that snippet from the movie and place it in context of what was happening in the baseball world. Because that's what it's about, Scout.

A curveball, and a circle-change

2006-11-06T10:02:00.000-08:00

I suppose I should have expected it after a post about how ludicrous, unchanging, and inertial the Gold Glove awards are, but I'll apparently never learn to stop shooting my mouth off about stuff of which I have inadequate knowledge. The NL Gold Glove awards came out the other day, and six of the nine positions were awarded to different guys than last year. This means that managers can think outside the box, right?

Well, not really. Orlando Hudson did win at 2B this year, where Luis Castillo had won last year- but last year Hudson was busy winning the Gold Glove in the AL. So his win sort of proves the inertia again. Scott Rolen winning at 3B is not a huge shocker either- it's a correction of last year's award to Mike Lowell, who is now conveniently in the AL. Rolen has won six previous times. At first base, Derrek Lee, last year's winner, was injured most of the year, and Todd Helton, the winner a couple of times recently, fell off the face of the earth, offensively, so the voters needed someone else. Pujols is obviously the best overall first baseman in baseball, if not the best overall player. How can you deny him that?

In the outfield, I guess even the managers have to have seen that Jim Edmonds has finally gotten old. He's still gritty, and still takes great routes to the ball, but he's not a top flight fielder anymore. Beltran had a great overall season, and is a reasonable choice. By reasonable, of course, I mean, he's a very good player who doesn't embarrass himself and if you don't look to hard at the statistics, he could be a gold glover. Finally, Omar Vizquel is apparently going to keep winning awards until two years after he's dead. The guy's what, 45 years old? Amazingly, though, if you look at the basic defensive metrics, he's not bad. He's solid, doesn't make many errors, and still has a top-five zone rating. Adam Everett has been the class of that group for a few years now, and by some standards is the best defensive player in all of baseball. He's going to have to go Nancy Kerrigan on Ol' Omar if he wants that recognition made official, though.

In some other news, the Yankees have apparently come to terms with Mike Mussina, and will keep him in pinstripes for another two years. The deal is rumored to be in the $21-23 million range for the two years. Much as I hate to acknowledge it, this is a great signing. When you look back at all of the big money, long-term pitching deals that have been made in baseball since 2000, Mussina is the guy you'd have to point to that best met expectations and earned his money. I know we in Red Sox Nation would say that Schilling was the best deal, but after he brought us the ring in 2004, he's had trouble. 2005 was almost a total loss, and this year he still wasn't what we expected a true ace to be. When you think about all of the Matt Clements and Russ Ortizes and Jaret Wrights and Carl Pavanos and even Pedro Martinezes out there, there is so much that can go wrong with a long-term, big-money pitching deal. Mussina hasn't won a title with the Yankees, for which I am tremendously grateful, but that hasn't been his fault. He's been very good.

The Inertia Award

2006-11-03T06:22:00.000-08:00

It is an immutable law of the baseball universe that Gold Glove awards tend to be given to the same person year after year, even in the absence of logical justification, unless acted upon by some outside force. Yesterday, Derek Jeter won his third straight (!!!) Gold Glove award at shortstop. He started winning, in large part because the winner the previous two years (Alex Rodriguez) was no longer playing shortstop. That move was enough to disrupt the award intertia. Similarly, Mark Grudzielanek won his first AL Gold Glove at second base this year, largely because last year's winner (Orlando Hudson) no longer plays in the AL. Last year's Gold Glove catcher was Jason Varitek, who won largely because the usual winner (Ivan Rodriguez) was injured for part of the season. This year, Tek was injured, Pudge was healthy, and the universal order is restored.

I'm angry about these awards not because, like so many in Red Sox Nation, they were not given to Alex Gonzalez and Mike Lowell. Alex Gonzalez played a superlative shortstop, and was, by any measure, considerably superior to Derek Jeter. But Gonzalez only played about 110-115 games this year. I know what you're thinking, Rafael Palmiero won in 1999 at first base despite playing only about 25 games in that position. Interia! He won because he won in 1998. But I don't begrudge the vote against Gonzalez. If you look at basic fielding measures, errors, fielding percentage, range factor, zone rating, etc., Jeter isn't even in the top 50% of AL shortstops. Juan Uribe, Michael Young, Jhonny Peralta, and Miguel Tejada are all much better than Jeter.

At third base, Lowell was amazing. He was close to stellar. But inertia says that Eric Chavez, who has won the award for the last five years, was also very solid, and there wasn't enough evidence (to the naked eye) to unseat him. I can't really complain about that selection, even though if you look at the date, Brandon Inge was actually probably a little better than both Chavez and Lowell.

Similarly, the outfield winners are the same this year as they were last year. And the same as 2004. And the same as 2003. I'm not saying that Ichiro, Torii Hunter, and Vernon Wells aren't good outfielders, but come on. They're not always the three best. In fact, they might have ever been the very best. If you looked at stats, you'd have to give serious consideration to guys like Nick Markakis, Carl Crawford, Corey Patterson, Scott Podsednik, and Grady Sizemore. Not to mention Manny Ramirez! (I told you not to mention him)

My problem, I think, is that there really is no standard. This is worse than MVP. The managers are supposed to vote for the best fielder at each position. They can't vote for the guy on their own team. I don't think that today's managers are lazy or hate statistics, but I doubt if they give this really much thought. I would be willing to bet that on the ballot or whatever form they have, there is some indication of last year's winner. And unless there is some major thing that changed- like Omar Vizquel leaving the American League a few years back, or Darin Erstad playing first base instead of center field- they go with what they had last year.

I understand the power of this interia. Hell, it controls and defines much of my life's activities. But we have data. We have logical reasons and defensible proof why certain guys should be legitimately honored- particularly guys who really deserve it and have been unfortunately below the radar of public appreciation. I understand the inertia. I just wish I wasn't so upset by the results of it.

Coulda Been, Almost Was, Still Could Be

2006-11-02T09:07:00.000-08:00

There are a couple of significant stories in baseball today, and each of them have a little thread that runs through the Red Sox organization. The three players involved are Jeff Bagwell, Guillermo Mota, and Diasuke Matsuzaka.

Bagwell just announced that he and the Astros are going separate ways after something like 15 years together. Bagwell hit 449 home runs for them, won an MVP, and was probably the least appreciated superstar of the 1990's. He also could have been all of that for the Boston Red Sox. After starring at the University of Hartford (!!!), Bagwell was drafted and came up through the Red Sox system, only to be traded for...say it with me, Larry Anderson. I know that the myopic lens of a pennant race distorts the vision of general managers, but that was historically, one of the most lopsided in history. With Bagwell's shoulder problems and probably salary requirements, I'd guess he's probably going to retire. There's still a possibility he does a two-year deal to be a DH for someone like Kansas City, Baltimore, or even the Rangers, but my guess would be about 70/30 he retires.

When he does retire, he really ought to be a hall-of-famer. If you look at his page on Baseball Reference (at the bottom), they list his Hall of Fame credentials and his most similar comparable players. Those are both very impressive lists. Every one of the non-active comparable players to Bagwell are already in the Hall of Fame. The others are probables like Ken Griffey, Jr., and Frank Thomas. The other thing that works in Bagwell's favor is that despite the glut of remarkable first-basemen in the 1990's (Giambi, McGwire, McGriff, Palmiero, Thomas, etc.) Bagwell's never really been tainted at all by any performance-enhancement speculation. Steering clear of that has got to add up to a few more votes by the Baseball Writers.

Speaking of performance-enhancement speculation, Guillermo Mota was handed a 50-game suspension for steriods the other day. He was, quite briefly, a member of the Red Sox. For as long as it took from the point he was acquired from the Marlins in the Josh Beckett deal to the point that he was traded to the Indians in the Coco Crisp deal (I'm sorry, I meant the David Riske deal), he was one of us. He wouldn't have been at the top of my list of juicing suspects, but, well, there but for the grace of Balco go the Sox. I know that Canseco played for the Sox, but it's been pretty remarkable how well Boston has managed to stay out of that widespread limelight these last couple of years. Something to be proud of? I suppose, until the other shoe drops.

Finally, news got incrementally better from the West Coast today. The Mariners have apparently taken themselves out of the running for Diasuke Matsuzaka's pitching services. After hearing that the Seibu Lions were expecting a posting fee of somewhere around $25 million (nearly double what the Mariners paid to get the rights to Ichiro), Seattle decided that was too rich for their blood. It isn't, in my opinion, too rich for John Henry's blood. I think this improves Boston's position somewhat. Not only does this take out the presumptive front-runner, but it puts Boston in prime position to steal something out from under the Yankees' nose. After spending over ONE BILLION dollars on contracts in the last five years, it is possible that the Yankees are going to be thinking twice before entering into another lengthy committment. Boston's got the resources and the incentive (read: third place) to make a splashy move. This isn't over yet. Sayonara, Seattle. Konishiwa, Matsuzaka-san.

Free? Pass.

2006-11-01T11:12:00.000-08:00

I kind of like this way that free agent declarations come out in dribs and drabs- it gives the smallminded and overwhelmed among us the opportunity to digest. Sort of after having gorged on the lengthy baseball season and the filling yet not terribly satisfying baseball postseason, we've all decided collectively to do a gastric bypass of our baseball intake. We can only handle so much at once.

So who fills our egg-sized appetite pouch today? Greg Maddux, Barry Zito, Bernie Williams, Eric Gagne (maybe), Roger Clemens (maybe) and Andy Pettitte (maybe). In other words, Barry Zito. Greg Maddux will never pitch for an American League team, especially not at this point in his career. He could actually phase himself into perhaps the last ever player/coach roles with someone like Los Angeles, San Francisco, or Milwaukee. He's more qualified than most pitching coaches out there, and he's still got a year or two left in his arm.

Clemens and Pettitte are both uncertain as to whether or not they'd return at all or just retire. These are two guys who've both won championships and had great success. They both opted to go to the Astros because they wanted to pitch at home. As much as I think they both like the idea of being courted by other teams desperate for their pitching intensity and skill, why would they go anywhere? If they're healthy and able to pitch effectively, why wouldn't they stay with the Astros? The Astros have money to spend, and much to lose (PR-wise) if they let these guys go. I'd still like to see Clemens finish things out in Boston (not least of which is because he's still a top-15 pitcher in the league), but I don't see it happening.

Bernie Williams is a class act. I don't cheer for him, as a career Yankee, but I respect what he's done in the game. He's a borderline hall-of-famer who has brought the game nothing but respect and dedication. But would I sign him? Hell no. The guy makes Doug Mirabelli's bat look like Gary Sheffield's. And his defensive skills, which have been slipping for a couple of years, are an enormous liability. I'd like to see him go out a Yankee. One, that would just be a nice form of respect- he's of a dying breed of one-team superstars. And two, it would mean the Yankees carry his dead weight for another year. Retire, Bernie. Don't go out like Willie Mays.

And Gagne. I can't quite figure this one out- he filed for free agency provisionally, but he's not a free agent just yet. The Dodgers get to decide on an option, which they'll probably turn down. Then he gets to decide on an option, which he may or may not turn down. If he finally hits the market, should the Sox take a shot at him? That's a big question. This could be like the Wade Miller/Matt Mantei/David Wells sort of signing. You commit little up front, but if things pan out, the salary could escalate. It didn't work out too well with Mantei or Miller, but the Sox didn't tie up too many resources on those. Wells, I think, earned his money while he was here. He was the Sox most effective starter last year. I'd give Gagne an incentivized deal- maybe $3.5 million base, with another three or four (or five) tied to appearances and performance. I don't think that this will be the best offer on the table, though.

Finally, Zito. The word is that the Red Sox are not on his radar, though he should probably be on the Red Sox radar. Zito has been that most elusive thing: a consistent, better-than-average, durable (never missed a start) pitcher in the American League. His career ERA against some very good AL teams has been around 3.55, if I'm not mistaken. His last two years haven't been spectacular, but he's been very solid. Very solid. He's a great #2 in almost anybody's rotation, and a #1 for many teams. With Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Wakefield, and someone else (Lester? Tavarez? Gabbard? Snyder?), there's a question whether the Sox need to pay for a #2. That would mean probably at least 4 years and at least $10 million per. Probably a bit more and a bit longer, given Zito's durability. Is that committing too much to our pitching, which may just need to be stronger at the back end and a bit deeper? I know you can never have too much pitching, but you can spend too much on pitching where you don't need to. I like Zito. I'd like him with the Sox, but I don't know if I'd do that deal either.

I haven't liked too many of these free agents yet. That stinks. The Sox need help in their bullpen. They need a starter. They need a good solid outfielder. There's got to be someone out there they can sign, afford, and benefit from. Can Alfonso Soriano pitch, too?

The Fenway Forties

2006-10-31T09:13:00.000-08:00

Within the last couple of days, the Red Sox announced the re-signing of Mike Timlin for next year ($2.8 million) and the picking up of the $4 million option on Tim Wakefield. Both of these pitchers will be over 40 for next year, and if the Red Sox are to have any sort of success next year, these guys have both got to pitch like they did in 2004 and 2005. They both had injury problems in 2006 which hampered their effectiveness. The front office, however, is clearly betting that they'll both return to form next year.

I have already made a statement about Timlin, which is that he should be solid for at least the beginning of next season, and by mid-season they really ought to have a replacement/contingency plan in place. As for Wakefield, I think that this is less of a crazy gamble. First off, $4 million isn't terrible for a back-of-the-rotation guy. Wakefield's age is not terribly significant, because as a knuckleballer, wear and tear on his arm isn't really a concern. His injury last year was a rib thing, not an arm or shoulder thing. And there's a pretty well documented history of knucklers pitching effectively into their mid and even late 40's. Finally, it's good just to have Wake around. He's a classy guy, a reliable character guy, and in normal circumstances gives you solidly average quality and above-average innings. That sort of certainty in your rotation is well worth the money.

The question now becomes who is going to catch Wakefield. It ain't gonna be Mirabelli. It ain't gonna be Varitek. It sure as heck-fire ain't gonna be Josh Bard. I hear lots of guys over at Sons of Sam Horn clamoring for Rod Barajas. That would be a really nice guy to have backing up Varitek. I don't know if the Sox can get that done, especially if he sees himself as an everyday starter. There is word that the Sox sent minor-league catcher George Kottaras to an instructional league to work on defense. This is the mid-level prospect that we picked up from the Padres in the David Wells trade. I think I favor that sort of move- having a young guy learn the ropes and get worked into the rotation. Catching a knuckleballer in front of a Fenway crowd is about a much a trial by fire as you can envision, and the Sox should know in relatively short order what this kid is made of. Let's give him a shot, at least a shot at winning the job in spring training.

In other news, a couple of other above-average hitters hit the free agent market yesterday. Carlos Lee and Aramis Ramirez are now both offically available. I was looking at their numbers today. Aramis Ramirez has had pretty impressive numbers over the last three seasons in Chicago, but I think that there are many teams hungrier at third base than the Red Sox, and he's not going to be worth the money. He's pretty much at his offensive peak, and that peak is not the kind of production that you mortgage the future for. The same is going to apply to Carlos Lee. His peak wasn't even as high as Ramirez', but he had some high-profile production in the last couple of years. He's a poor man's Magglio Ordonez, and I would say over a full season, Wily Mo Pena would easily out-produce Lee. He'd be useful for the right price- maybe a 2-year deal for $7 or $8 million per, but he's going to get far more than that. Someone will go four or five years for Lee. Again, the Sox will have to pass. I'm still holding my breath for Alfonso Soriano, but I just heard he's looking for a Carlos Beltran-type deal. That means something like 7 years, $100 million. I don't think that he'll get quite that, but he might get 6 years, $75 million from someone. That would probably be too rich for our blood- or at least too long for our liking. If the Sox can emerge with a higher value, four-year deal, like 4/48, I'd bite on that. Keep dreaming, son. Keep dreaming.

The Season Begins

2006-10-30T07:23:00.000-08:00

The hot stove season officially began this weekend after the Adam Wainright of the Cardinals struck out some guy from Detroit to end a game. It must have meant something, because everyone starting jumping up and down like they were really happy. Whatever it was, it sorta looked like fun. The game wasn’t that great, so maybe it was someone’s birthday or something.

Actually, congratulations go out to the World Champion Cardinals, winners for the first time since 1982 (when they edged Harvey’s Wallbangers). I’m happy for the St .Louis fans, who seem to have all of the appreciation for baseball with none of the anger. Maybe it’s the influence of that light beer they brew around there somewhere. Maybe with the introduction of Sam Adams Light, Red Sox fans will start mellowing as well. A special congrats to David Eckstein, my second favorite ballplayer named David. He’s roughly the size of one of Big Papi’s legs, but he was huge in the Series for the Cardinals, and has shown himself to be a big winner. It’s time to hope that Dustin Pedroia can turn into the same sort of player.

But now the real season begins- a hot stove season that promises to be very interesting for Red Sox fans. Over the weekend, Trot Nixon, Gabe Kapler, and Doug Mirabelli all filed for free agency. As popular as those guys are, as much dirt dog ethic as they showed (Doug with his bare handed batting style…) they’ll probably never put on a Sox uniform again. Trot will be too expensive and too injury prone- he’ll be good somewhere like Kansas City or Colorado or San Francisco. Kapler will get squeezed because we’ll have Eric Hinske as utility corner guy next year. Doug, well, Doug would need to hit his weight to justify his continued presence on the Sox bench. I don’t think he’s got the bat speed anymore.

A number of other (relatively) high profile players filed for free agency as well. Jason Schmidt and Barry Bonds of the Giants, Alfonso Soriano of the Nationals, and Roger Clemens of the Astros all filed. There’s no telling if Roger will be back or not, but it may be worth Theo and the boys making one final run to convince the Rocket he can go out on top with his old team. Soriano is worth a run as well. Schmidt is probably the only legit player from that Giants team, but I’m just not sure how well he does on an American League team. I think he lands with the Cubs or another NL team looking to spend their way out of the cellar. As for Bonds, well, that’s a tough one. Ideally, he’ll become a DH on an American League club. He’ll probably sign a two-year deal, for between $10-12 million per year. Texas, maybe. Oakland already has Frank Thomas. Maybe Seattle. Someone close enough to contention, but with a fan base that won’t taunt him too much. I think it’s still 50/50 he stays in San Fran, where he’s still adored, but he’s becoming a huge liability in the outfield.

It’s going to be an interesting season. And a blessedly short one. Less than 110 days before pitchers and catchers report.

He Coulda Been a Dirt Dog

2006-10-27T04:18:00.000-07:00

Congratulations to the (soon to be) World Champion St. Louis Cardinals, and let the David Eckstein worship begin. Last night's Game 4 actually provided the first bit of excitement, drama, and compelling baseball that the postseason has seen. That may be going a bit too far, but let's put it this way. If Chris Farley were sitting on the set of his fake talk show (and also if he were still alive- stay with me here) and was interviewing Joe Buck or Tim McCarver or Albert Pujols, he'd be all nervous, saying something like..."remember that time in the 2006 World Series...when that thing happened...that was awesome!"

He wouldn't say that. Mostly because he's dead. But also because not much awesome happened during the Series until the eighth inning of Game 4. With the game tied, 4-4 and a guy on second, David Eckstein hit a ball into medium-depth left field. Because he's David flippin Eckstein, 5-7, 165 pound shortstop (make that SHORTstop), Craig Monroe was shading him a bit in, expecting a texas leaguer. He misjudged this little fella's pop. Running flat out and leaping, Monroe just missed catching the ball, and the go-ahead run scored (or maybe you might have seen the highlights). Sure, the Tigers played lousy defense in general last night, but that one play- that one hit- turned this series from a possible 2-2 tie to a rather definitive 3-1 Cardinals advantage.

David Eckstein, you might recall, was also on the World Champion 2002 Angels. He's the guy Barry Bonds cites as his favorite player. I would say that he's a guy just like you and me, except frankly, I'm bigger than he is. And I don't get to say that very often. Every time he throws to first from his spot at short, it looks like he's going to tear his arm out, and you're always surprised the ball gets there without bouncing five or six times. But he has, as all the papers and websites will be happy to tell you this morning, a heart of a champion. Or the heart of a lion. Or whatever else might defeat a Tiger (and, appropriately enough, a Giant, like he did in 2002).

The kicker for Red Sox fans, of course, is that we drafted him. He was our 19th round pick back in 1997. He came up through our system before Dan Duquette gave up on him, and probably Nomar's presence in Boston made him expendable. The question I have is: can we find some way to blame this on Theo? Come on Red Sox nation- you can come up with something! I have faith in you. Let the negativity f-l-o-w...

Shades of Gray

2006-10-26T06:22:00.000-07:00

I'm going to ask a question, and I want you to think about it a bit before answering. Which is more engaging: watching a World Series between the Tigers and the Cardinals where the Tigers are hitting .185 as a team and the Cardinals are hitting about .196 OR watching the rain delay and ultimately rained-out coverage of Game 4 last night? I'd have to think about that one. At least with the rain delay the announcers have to work harder to come up with interesting things to talk about.

Ah well, we'll try again tonight. Who will the rainout help more? It could be the Tigers. It could be the Cardinals. It is definately not the average baseball fan, who, as a result has to put up with this lousy series for another day before we can start having good arguments about who got screwed out of the MVP or Cy Young.

Meanwhile, I stopped watching Game 3 in the middle somewhere, so I didn't get to find out if anyone hit a home run into left field or left center field. I haven't heard about my free taco, so I'm guessing nobody did. That's an interesting promotion- a free taco for everyone in America for a homer in a certain area. That would have been fascinating to see. I would have liked to see a sociological study of the numbers of adult Americans who took advantage of standing in line for over an hour to get a free 79-cent hard taco versus the numbers of adult Americans who stood in line for maybe five minutes to exercise their right to vote on November 7.

But then again, Joe Leiberman doesn't have the status of being the "official quick service restaurant of Major League Baseball." Does that status actually help Taco Bell? MLB isn't like Jay-Z or the Pussy Cat Dolls. They don't have street cred. If Craig Biggio prefers his fast food "cruncheweezy" does that make thousands of schoolboys rush out to Taco Bell? There's got to be a better way of spending marketing money.

Surprisingly Quiet

2006-10-25T09:04:00.000-07:00

It should have been a really big news day in baseball. There's actually a lot going on, a lot to talk about- but most of this stuff is really flying below the radar. I suppose that Halloween and elections and football is monopolizing things, but listen up for a second- it's a big baseball day!

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) was signed by the owners and the players, and extends peace between the parties for another five years. Not only is this one of the longest CBA extensions, but this one happened with almost no fuss, and well before the deadline. Remember the work stoppages of the early 1980's or of 1994? I do too, but just barely now. The last CBA caused some stress, and they waited until (literally) the 11th hour to finalize it. This one was done with nearly a month to go. That's pleasing, but I suppose having everyone swimming in money helps.

The best part of the CBA, as I understand it (and I don't think that there is a full version released to the public yet) is that finally revenue sharing comes with a expenditure requirement. In other words, poor teams that benefit most from revenue sharing are now at least somewhat protected from their stingy, miserly owners. Owners in Minnesota, Florida, Kansas City, Milwaukee, etc. that take a big chunk of shared revenue must now invest a substantial portion of that in their on-field product. No more $15 million dollar payrolls. Though honestly, Minnesota and Florida have been doing pretty well on their tiny payrolls. It'll be good to see playing field a bit more level.

Another recent note is that the Yankees are likely to pick up Gary Sheffield's $13 million option for next year. He won't, however, be likely to displace either Damon, Matsui, or Abreu from the outfield. He also won't likely displace Giambi from the regular DH position. He will be trade bait. I have to give Brian Cashman credit for this one. That's a good move. There are several teams out there who could use a solid-hitting outfielder and who wouldn't mind trading a mid-level pitching prospect and picking up a $13 million salary to do it. Heck, the Red Sox are one of them. The market for Sheffield gives Cashman a couple of things. First, it ensures some return for the loss of Sheffield, even if it is only a AA pitcher or a couple of middling position prospects. Second, it gives him control over who gets Sheffield, and more importantly who doesn't get him. Trading him to the Angels keeps him away from Baltimore or Boston where Sheff can come back to haunt the Yankees 18 or 19 times a year. He won't be in Boston next year, which is fine for me. It saves me the heartache of having to boo someone in a Sox uniform.

There is also word out of Boston that Mike Timlin might be back next year. He'll be 41 and is coming off of two terrible months in the bullpen. His ERA for August and September was up around 6 or 7. He was hurt and tired. I worry a bit that his continued presence on the roster might slow down the rebuilding of the bullpen, but when he's fresh, he's still a solid reliever. In April and May, his ERA was still under 2, and that was coming off the World Baseball Classic. If we can keep him out of that debacle, he might be solid through July, at which time the front office had better have a strong bullpen in place. If he's not, and if they don't, things are gonna go downhill quickly.

Oh yeah, and I guess the World Series is still going on. Chris Carpenter pitched a hell of a game yesterday, and completely without the aid of pine tar. All the same, it's been sort of an underwhelming series. Placido Polanco, Ivan Rodriguez, and Carlos Guillen are something like 0-35 in the series. I was wrong about the Tigers winning in five, but I still think that the Cardinals don't have enough to close this out. Does anyone outside of St. Louis and Detroit care if I'm right or wrong? The TV ratings seem to indicate that they don't. Like I said, below the radar...

Doctored balls

2006-10-24T10:31:00.000-07:00

What was everyone thinking? I'm trying to make sense of this whole Kenny Rogers/Tony LaRussa doctored ball situation, and I think that I don't have quite enough information. I wasn't watching in the first inning of Game 2, and so I'm getting all of this through the skewed filter of news commentary. There are a couple of pertinent questions:

1) Was Kenny Rogers deliberately doctoring the balls with some foreign (illegal) substance, which is to say something other than dirt, rosin, and spit? The answer to this, to my mind, is probably not. For some reason, Kenny Rogers has not only completely reversed his past playoff failures (8.80 ERA in his pre-2006 postseason), but has, at the venerable age of 41, discovered his inner Christy Matthewson and has been dazzling batters from Oakland to the Bronx. Does a little pine tar or vaseline do that for you? No. Might Kenny be looking for an artificial edge at this point in his career? Of course, I wouldn't doubt that. He does have a faster fastball this year than he's had in recent memory- I'm not making assumptions, but a scuffed ball doesn't travel 3-4 mph faster. If Kenny's cheating, it isn't on the ball.

2) Did Tony LaRussa suspect cheating? I think he probably did. He brought the issue to the attention of the officials, didn't he? He just wanted Kenny's hand cleaned off. That's the confusing thing. And it leads to the next question...

3) Why did Tony not make an official challenge, and possibly get unhittable Kenny Rogers tossed from the game and maybe from the World Series? There are two legitimate reasons for this. First, he did it "for the good of the game." He didn't think Kenny's cheating was significant or substantial, and he didn't want the Series marred by something that big. This would have been twenty times bigger than Roger Clemens throwing the barrel of the bat at Mike Piazza. This would have been one of the biggest World Series scandals since 1919. Good ol' Tony's just letting the boys play, protecting the integrity of the pure game. I don't buy that.

The second explanation is that Tony's not about to cast asparagus at the other team when he knows damn well that these same sorts of gamesmanship issues could easily (and perhaps more effectively) hurt his own team. He knows that he might get Rogers thrown out of a game, but he doesn't want to risk getting Chris Carpenter and Jeff Suppan tossed as well- especially against a canny guy like Jim Leyland, who has been around the game long enough to know where a couple of bodies are buried.

Ultimately, the way this is going to play out depends on who wins the World Series. Either LaRussa will be celebrated as a master tactician who just wants the game to be played the right way, or he'll be reviled (even in friendly St.Louis) as the guy who refused to give his team its best chance (and perhaps only chance) to steal Game 2 from the Tigers at Detroit.

You all (well, both of you) know my prediction. Tigers in five. LaRussa will be the goat. Will he be fired? Hell no. He took an incredibly mediocre team to the World Series. He's a mad genius, isn't he? If there's one thing he should be thankful for at this point, it is that he doesn't manage a team in the northeast.

Don't mess with the Polish guy

2006-10-23T06:13:00.000-07:00

In baseball, there are superstar players. Pujols, Bonds, Rodriguez, Jeter, Ortiz, etc. There are even superstar managers- guys who are considered geniuses- LaRussa, Torre, Cox. But GMs? Well, prior to "Moneyball," there aren't many people who'd be able to identify more than two or three GMs. Maybe Billy Beane, John Schuerholtz, Theo Epstein. Today, however, we want to give some love to Dave Dombrowski, possibly the best GM in baseball, and certainly the least recognized for his genius.

A native of Chicago (hey der!), Dombrowski has been the GM of three teams. He started with the Expos in the late 1980's, when they still had the chance to be competitive. When the Marlins were created, Dave got the job as their first GM. He started work in 1991, and the team started playing in 1993. He put together that team with Jeff Conine, Kevin Brown, Edgar Renteria, Craig Counsell, Gary Sheffield (grr) and the rest of that Marlin team that beat the offensive juggernaut Indians in the 1997 World Series. When the team was sold, he moved on to Detroit.

And here we are. In Detroit. In late October. It's really really cold- Placido Polanco in a balaclava cold. Placido Palanco balaclava. Placido Polanco balaclava. Placido Polanco balaclava. There, I said it. And there's Dave Dombrowski, observing it all. The thing that he, John Schuerholtz, and Billy Beane all have in common (I'd throw Terry Ryan of the Twins in on this also) is that they have all seemed to find that sweet mix of young players, drafted and on their way up, with grizzled veterans who refuse to go quietly. Billy Beane had Frank Thomas this year, and Dave Dombrowski has Kenny Rogers. Quite under the radar, Dombrowski signed Kenny Rogers to a under-market value 2-year deal. All Kenny has done this post-season is pitch 23 consecutive scoreless innings. If he continues this, he has a decent chance of breaking Christy Mathewson's 100-year-old record. Strange things happen- but they do seem to happen to these guys who seem to have a knack for putting the right pieces together, and letting them gel.

The World Series is now tied, 1-1. Rogers took care of business in the second game. In the first game, the pitching looked like a huge rookie mismatch. Justin Verlander, probable AL rookie of the year, with a low, low, low ERA, took the mound against Anthony Reyes, who had a 5.06 ERA in 17 starts (in the NL!). Who has the edge? Well, let me also ad that Verlander was well rested. Who has the edge now? Right. The other guy that no one favored. It's time to stop listening to the experts. I'm still going with the Tigers in five on this one. I think the Cardinals got their win. They'll get no more.

I'm going with the Polish guy.

Finally.

2006-10-20T06:34:00.000-07:00

Well, we finally get a World Series. After a pretty good game in what has been one of the least interesting LCS in recent memory, the Tigers finally get to gear up to completely squash the Cardinals. Jeff Suppan pitched extremely well, which again for me just reinforces the differences between AL and NL hitting. Or maybe the difference between pitching at Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park and in anywhere else in the league. And, as predicted, Oliver Perez pitched well. The game came down to a (predictably) improbable homer by Yadier Molina and a high-wire save by Adam Wainright.

Wainright really impressed me. He's a young guy, 25, I think, and pitching in this role for really the first time this year. He did give up a couple of solid hits, but what struck me in that ninth inning was the way he mixed his pitches. The old adage, attributed to Warren Spahn, I believe, is that "hitting is timing. Pitching is disrupting a hitter's timing." The way that Wainright pumped a couple of fastballs (93-95 mph) to Cliff Floyd and and just completely froze him with a wicked curve- that was what pitching is all about. You have to give Dave Duncan credit on that- that is a good way to pick your closer. Two very good pitches, and the knowledge and ability to throw them when you want- that's nice.

All the same, I found myself rooting for the Mets. I didn't really have a horse in that race, except that I find myself disliking the Cardinals. That probably started way back in 1982 when those guys beat my Brewers in the Brew Crew's first (and only) World Series appearance. It also continued into 2004 when they were the (unworthy) adversaries against the Red Sox. Also, it's hard for me to root against a team in a game seven in their own ballpark. It's no fun to watch a team celebrate amid all that silence. At least in St. Louis, when the Sox won, the crowd was generous with their tribute to the Sox. So the fans aren't so bad, I just don't like the team.

So to Detroit we go. All of the conventional wisdom says Detroit will make rather short work of the Cardinals. Of course, this is conventional wisdom from the same people who told you that Detroit had no chance of getting past the Yankees in the first round- so it's grain of salt time. Personally, I just think that Detroit's pitching is both better and rested, their bullpen is incredible, and they have more than enough hitting to pull this improbable season to an epic level. Tigers in five.

For the...um...diehard fan?

2006-10-19T10:48:00.000-07:00

Can't the marketing wizards at Major League Baseball come up with some original ideas for once? Do they have to resort from ripping a page straight out of Gene Simmons' playbook? You know how they say that there are no original ideas- that in the history of the world, in all the people who have ever lived, someone, at sometime had every idea you think is totally original? Well, that's probably true of Gene Simmons. It probably doesn't matter what way you've thought of to make money- Gene Simmons has already had that idea for KISS, and has also probably put it into action.

The thing now is customized caskets. Coffins. Like for when you die. The Red Sox, along with several other MLB teams, announced recently that they will be offering, through the manufacturer Eternal Images, team-themed caskets. Now you no longer have to end your loyalty to the Sox at the grave. They'll happily join you in the grave, at what I am sure are quite reasonable rates. Is that distasteful? Does it cheapen or commercialize what should be an incredibly somber time, a time for spiritual reflection? I'd say no. I think it's quite all right. I think it would help you not only get in the right frame of mind for your ultimate passing, but give those who survive you something slightly whimsical to remember you by.

The Precious Moments-themed caskets, though- those are just sick.

In other news, the Mets forced a game seven in the NLCS last night, getting past the baseball juggernaut that is the 83-78 St. Louis Cardinals. I can't stop thinking about that. 83-78, and they're a game from the flippin' World Series. What could possibly be more ludicrous? Wait for it...yes. That's right. Oliver Perez starting Game Seven for the Mets. 3-13 Oliver Perez. Oliver Perez with an ERA over 6.40 in the NATIONAL LEAGUE! Oliver Perez who was actually really good back in 2004- good enough for me to have him on my 2005 rotisserie team WAY too long. That Oliver Perez. The Mets would probably do better to send Olivier Martinez to the mound- at least the Cardinals can't hit him over the head with a snow globe like Michael Douglas did in "Unfaithful." Rob Neyer is writing today that Perez is probably the worst Game Seven pitcher ever (that's just the headline. Rob Neyer went to the pay-portion of ESPN.com several years ago and I haven't read his work since). He's probably right. And do you know who he's facing? Jeff Suppan. Soup! The guy who was nice enough to atone for screwing up with the Sox down the stretch in 2003 by getting thrown out at third by Big Papi in the 2004 World Series (thanks, Jeff). Actually, the last time Suppan pitched a Game Seven was in 2004. He beat Roger Clemens in the NLCS. He's actually not a bad big game pitcher.

So of course, Perez is going to throw a gem and send the Mets to the Series. Nobody knows nothin'.

Questionable Moves

2006-10-18T06:44:00.000-07:00

Later this evening, St. Louis could rather easily become one of the worst teams to make the World Series. These guys finished the year 83-78. That’s five games over .500. That’s worse than the Red Sox. In fact, that’s a worse record than twelve other teams in Major League Baseball. There are only 30 teams in baseball. The Cardinals, this year, were a solidly middle-third of quality baseball teams. The Mets were among the three best teams in baseball. I suppose that it is still possible that the Mets pull this out, though the pitching matchups seem to favor the Cardinals, but if the thoroughly mediocre Cards make the World Series, that’s something that’s amazin’.

The presence of the Cardinals in the World Series would also, somewhat inappropriately, cement Tony LaRussa as a managerial genius. Sure, his team has been able to hang in there through the playoffs (thanks, Albert. Oh, and thank you too, Spicoli…I mean Weaver). But this is a team that almost blew an 8-game division lead with like two weeks left in the season. They finished 83-78. How come Walt Jocketty isn’t facing the same virulent criticism as Theo Epstein, whose team finished with a better record in a much tougher league? Well, of course everyone’s nice in St. Louis, including the press. Well, and of course St. Louis is on the verge of going to the World Series again. But really, should we really be saying that one manager or GM is so much more effective than another at this point? Does the fact that an otherwise crappy pinch-hitter cranks a homer in an NLCS game mean that your completely unremarkable season just goes away? Perhaps it does. Flags fly forever.

Speaking of that, I was about to be all worked up into a froth about the firing of Ken Macha in Oakland. Not only do I not have the energy for it, I don’t know if it’s so stunning. Sure, Oakland finally managed to win a post-season series for the first time since…well, since Tony LaRussa was manager there. But Billy Beane knows that the post-season is a crapshoot, and you can’t always control what happens there. He also knows that managers, by and large, are fungible. There are very few that make an actual difference to the team’s final record. Heck, Ken Macha knew this going in- he was only there because he agreed to stay out of Billy Beane’s way more than Art Howe would. Macha should probably thank Billy Beane. He’s going out on a winning note- making the ALCS with a low-payroll team. He’ll probably get one of the open managerial jobs- if not this year, then next year, and get a nice pay raise. It’s not as if Oakland is the bottomless pit of money that other teams could be. Maybe the Nationals.

And finally, Peter Gammons was reporting that there are only really two teams out there legitimately contending for the services of Daisuke Matsuzaka- the Mariners and the Yankees. He gives the Yankees about a 75% chance of winning the bidding to negotiate with him. The Sox claim (though Theo gave very little indication of this during his recent press conference) that they’ll be in the running. There are two things about this that intrigue me. First, it’s a sealed-bidding process. We don’t know what the Yankees or the Mariners will bid. It’ll probably be over $20 million, but there’s no saying the Sox won’t surprise us (and them) with a good guess about the Yanks bid and outdo them by a couple of bucks. Second, the winner has control over Matsuzaka for six years. He’s not a free agent. He either has to play for the team that wins the bidding or not play at all. This means that the team really has the upper hand in contract negotiations. Sure, it’s easy to say that he’s worth 10-12 million per year (which we really don’t know), but faced with the prospect of sitting out completely, Matsuzaka might be willing to sign for seven or eight million per year, thus making a bit of a gamble on the bidding process more attractive. I’ve got to look deeper into how he projects against major league hitting, but for my money (which isn’t the same as John Henry’s money), I think it’s worth a shot.

Pudge, Texas Ranger

2006-10-17T07:58:00.000-07:00

As I was watching the Tigers completely destroy the Oakland A’s in the ALCS (thus confirming for all interested that I have a singular talent for picking the losers), I found myself reminded. A couple of years ago, we watched a scrappy team, largely of unknowns, guided by a crusty, old-school manager, come out of nowhere and dominate on their way to a highly improbably World Series.

Do these Tigers remind anyone else of the 2003 Marlins? They had very solid pitching and just enough hitting to get the job done. Say, who was that pitcher that shut down the Yankees to win the Series? Boy, the Sox could sure use a pitcher of that quality.

The other thing that I noticed was the kid behind the plate. Pudge Rodriguez, the erstwhile Texas Ranger, was on that 2003 Marlins team. And here he is, front and center, leading the 2006 Detroit Tigers. That’s interesting, isn’t it? He had never really been regarded as much of a leader- let alone a decent handler of a pitching staff, but he’s certainly seemed to have cemented his first-ballot hall-of-fame status with his participation on his second World Series team in four years.

That brings up an interesting question that had been bugging me for a while. Assuming the Tigers win (which is not a given just yet, obviously), Pudge will have two series rings with teams other than the one whose cap he’ll probably wear in the Hall of Fame. He’ll probably go in as a Ranger. I wonder how much sense the logo-cap makes anymore in the Hall of Fame. Dave Winfield went in as a Padre, but I would guess most people outside of San Diego think of him as a Yankee. Gary Carter went in as an Expo, but he himself, and many others think of him as a Met. Reggie Jackson went in as a Yankee, despite spending nearly twice as long with the Oakland A’s. Carleton Fisk went in with a Red Sox cap, despite his longer career with the White Sox (I think that was the right decision, of course).

I know the Hall of Fame makes these decisions based on their impact, and for “historical archival” purposes, which is fine. They don’t really consider the player’s preference, which is fine. But why do it at all? Especially now, in the age of mega-free-agency. If Alex Rodriguez gets traded, to, say, the Cubs (good to see you again, Lou!) and spends four or five years there, then maybe his final three years with someone else, whose hat would you put on his head? The Yankees? The Mariners? The Rangers? Who does he represent? In a couple of years, when Roberto Alomar makes the Hall, whose hat will he wear? I guess the Orioles, or maybe the Blue Jays. But it could also pretty easily be the Indians.

I think that the Hall did the right thing with Catfish Hunter. He would be a really hard choice between the Yankees and the A’s- that’s a debate for true sports nerds. So they just left the logo off. Check out his hall-of-fame plaque. It’s got a blank cap. I think they should do this more often, except in cases like Robin Yount, George Brett, and Tony Gwynn. Unless a guy can be only identified with one team, just leave the hat blank and make note of the teams in the text. Or add the logos down at the bottom, all lined up. Otherwise, you’re just, in a minor way, cheating the memory of those fans in the other cities. I’m sure the Blue Jays fans have fond memories of Paul Molitor and the two World Series rings he helped them win. We Brewers fans wouldn’t begrudge them those memories, nor would we freely give up that hat.

Rethinking A-Rod

2006-10-13T06:17:00.000-07:00

Just as I forgot about Manny's 10-and-5 contract status when I was spouting off about trading him this offseason, I forgot something about A-Rod when I was spouting off about him. He's got a no-trade clause. He's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to. Although everything in the business of sports is always subject to change, it looks as if A-Rod doesn't want to go. He says he wants to be a Yankee, and to win with the Yankees. I can't say as I blame him, I guess.

All ballplayers have ego, and A-Rod has perhaps made the mistake of baring too much of his soul to the New York media, but he's made no bones about wanting to succeed in New York and to be loved by the city. Maybe that makes him seem weak, but what it doesn't do is make him a failure, nor does it make it likely for him to give up after three years that virtually any player in the game would be thrilled to have. In three years with the Yankees, A-Rod has hit around .295 with 119 homers and 357 RBI. Boy, what a bum. Sure, he didn't hit in the postseason. Guess what? Neither did Sheffield. Neither did Matsui. Of course neither of them has a giant flashing "252" hanging around his neck like some five-tool Flavor Flav. So I guess that he feels like he's still got something to prove. Heck, it took Barry Bonds something like 16 years to prove he wasn't a post-season choker.

So I guess it's probably unrealistic to expect to see A-Rod in a Sox uniform next year. As much as I'd love to see that straight-up challenge trade, A-Rod for Manny, I think that both front offices are too conservative for that. There's no way they'd trade a future hall-of-famer within their division, to their biggest rival, and allow the other hitter to remind you 19 times each year what an idiot you were. I'd still love to see it, though.

A Grey Day

2006-10-12T07:21:00.000-07:00

I was taking the dog out this morning, very early, when I heard the news about Cory Lidle. Apparently, he was flying a two-seater plane along the Hudson River, trying to avoid LaGuardia airspace (above 1100 feet) and took a turn that ended up crashing him into the side of a building. That is a terrible shame, and my sympathies are with Lidle's family, friends, and teammates.

For some reason, a part of me (maybe the part of me that's been hijacked by the 24-hour media pundits) wanted to connect this to other injuries or deaths to athletes. One of the Boston newspapers had a listing of other athletes dying in plane crashes (Thurmon Munson, Roberto Clemente, Payne Stewart, etc.) but this is different for me. To me, it relates more to Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle crash, Jeff Kent's motorcycle-wheelie (I'm sorry, I mean truck-washing) injury, or even Stephen Jackson's recent gunshots at the strip club. I'm not comparing Cory Lidle to Stephen Jackson, not directly, but I just have that wonder about athletes- guys whose major asset is their bodies, their physical health, taking these sorts of chances away from the field of competition.

There is the argument that athletes are different from us, that they crave the rush of competition, that they're adrenaline junkies and when they can't get that on the field (because of the off-season or retirement, etc.) they have to find it somewhere else. That's why Jason Williams was riding his motorcycle over 80 mph in Chicago, nearly ending his life and putting a major kink in his basketball career. Perhaps that's why Cory Lidle was drawn to flying his own planes. I don't know.

My thought, though, is that athletes aren't really that different. They just have the financial means to afford really fast bikes or private airplanes to indulge in the sort of thrill-seeking that the rest of us would like to try if we could swing it. Also, they're high-profile. For every athlete that gets killed in a plane crash or injured in a motorcyle crash, there's probably 5,000 normal folks that have the same thing happen. The difference is that fifteen seconds after we hear about the crash on the news, we forget about it, because we don't know who it was who died. We know Cory Lidle. We know Ben Roethlisberger. So we remember those, and our minds start to put together these pieces into overall athlete behavioral theories and trend stories. It's just not necessarily true, that's all.

All of this speculation, of course, doesn't do anything to bring Cory Lidle back, or to make the tragedy any less painful for his family and friends. All it does, really, is give the rest of us something to think about and talk about so that we're not so afraid.

The Undiscovered Starter

2006-10-11T07:56:00.000-07:00

It looks as if, at least in one area, the Sox and the Yankees are going to be shopping for the same thing this offseason. The category starting pitching, and the secret is to not get stuck in huge albatrosses of contracts. Right now, the Yankees have to decide whether or not to pick up Mike Mussina's $17 million option (or pay $1.5 million in buyout- this is actually not as easy a decision as you might think). They also will be paying Randy Johnson $16 million for 2007, Carl Pavano about $10 million for each of 2007 and 2008, Jaret Wright $7 million for 2007, Kyle Farnsworth about $6 million in each of 2007 and 2008, and Mike Myers about a million next year. None of these guys (with the possible exception of Mussina or a miracle bounceback from Pavano) can justify that money.

The Sox have Schilling up for another year at $13 million, about $9.5 million sunk into Matt Clement, Keith Foulke likely to pick up his $3.75 million player option, $10 million each year for the next three years of Josh Beckett, $4 million for Wakefield if the Sox choose to pick that up, and a little over $3 million for Julian Tavarez.

Clearly, both teams have some opportunity to suffer through lost money, but it does appear that the Sox are better positioned on this. There are a couple of decent pitchers on the free-agent market. Chief among them are Barry Zito (despite his less-than-stellar outing last night against Detroit), Jason Schmidt (beware the NL import!), and Mark Mulder. Mulder is having rotator cuff surgery, but he could be a potential Jon Lieber-type pickup where you buy his rehab time cheap and get a big upside. The big prize this off-season will be Daisuke Matsuzaka, coming over from the Seibu Lions in Japan. The problem with this signing (aside from him being an unknown quantity to MLB hitters) is that the cost just to negotiate with him will be probably north of $10 million. That will go to the Lions. Then, you need to sign the guy- and that will probably be a minimum of 3 years, $30 million. And if the Yankees are hungry for him, it's probably $15 million to negotiate, and 4/40.

So where do you find solid, affordable starters? Well, maybe in your bullpen. Think back a couple of years, Sox fans. We had a pitcher in our bullpen who had struggled as a starter. He got sent to the bullpen, had one very good year there where he saved over 40 games. The next year, he struggled significantly in the same role. Toward the end of that year (2001, I believe), he made a couple of starts and seemed to get his stuff together. The next year, he won 20 games and had a sub-3 ERA. Also, he was an extreme ground-ball pitcher. His name is Derek Lowe. David Gassko of The Hardball Times argues that we may have another one of these guys in our current bullpen. His name is Julian Tavarez. Tavarez is also an extreme ground-ball pitcher who has seemed to put it together as a late-season starter after a rough bullpen year.

Though pitchers are really really hard to project, and the Lowe/Tavarez comparisons fade in strong sunlight, it's an intriguing idea. It is certainly one worth exploring during spring training and into April...

Generalissimo Francisco Franco is Still Dead

2006-10-10T10:32:00.000-07:00

The Yankees just called a press conference to announce that Joe Torre will still be the manager of the Yankees in the 2007 season. Oh. You mean the Joe Torre who was already under contract for the 2007 season? Right. They held a press conference to say that nothing changed. Thanks, guys. Let me guess, Derek Jeter is also going to remain at shortstop for the 2007 season, contrary to reports that he'd instead be playing catcher for the Colorado Rockies.

Actually, they probably did this just it would be clear to the entire media world that I was wrong again. Obviously, Joe Torre wasn't the problem, but that's no reason for me to not predict his imminent demise. I might have to go into George Constanza decision mode and quickly reverse any prediction that I might make. With that in mind, here are my rock-solid predictions for the next round of the MLB playoffs, starting this evening with the Oakland-Detroit series:

-Oakland/Detroit: As impressed as I was with the Detroit pitching against the Yankees and as much momentum as Detroit is carrying with them into Oakland, I think the A's will shut them down. The old expression "momentum carries you as far as your next starting pitcher" is the story here. Barry Zito and the patient bats of the Oakland lineup will set the tone, and the A's will win in 6.

-New York/St.Louis: I think that the Cardinals only looked good in their first series because the Padres were so bad. They had no offense and couldn't respond to the onslaught of Albert Pujols. In a short series, anything can happen. In a longer series, I think that the Cardinals won't have enough finish this one off. Can't this team just go away already? Since it worked so well when I predicted that the mighty offense of the other NY franchise would overcome its questionable pitching, I'll repeat that mistake. The Mets hitters will win the day, and will beat the Cardinals in seven games.

Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets. Just remember to bet against me.

The Ballad of Slappy McBluelips

2006-10-09T11:42:00.000-07:00

(I present you the following, with apologies to Lennon/McCartney)

Went one-for-fourteen against De-troit
Made a costly error at third
Last year’s MVP
All my teammates hate me
And all of New York flips me the bird

Christ you know it ain’t easy
You know how hard it can be
The way things are going
They gonna blame this on me...

First of all, a great big “You’re Welcome” to all of the people who took my advice and bet against my predictions. I went 1-3 in series predictions, thus making anyone who bet against me 3-1. I did get the A’s-Twins series right, which I was actually the most confident about, and I think EVERYONE got the Yankees-Tigers series wrong, which makes me feel a little better.

After the first game of that Yankees series, I think everyone in the world had the Yankees going all the way for their first win of the Bush Administration. That’s one positive effect I can point to for the last six years of Dubya, at least- no Yankee titles. But that lineup, despite some suspicions about the pitching, seemed good enough to bust up any comers.

But then Kenny Rogers decided that seven straight losses to the Yankees was enough. He shrugged off the fact that he’d never won in the post-season, almost singlehandedly lost the 1996 World Series (pitching for the Yankees) and had a playoff ERA north of six. His curveball was really nasty- it was one time I was willing to trade off getting to see the ESPN K-Zone graphic in exchange for being subjected to Joe Morgan’s voice. The arc on Uncle Charlie was just sick. They couldn’t hit him. And then Bonderman. Jeremy Bonderman. Or as WCBS radio would put it, Jerry Bonderman. The Yankees were reduced to looking like the Royals before the Red Sox rolled in to town. And thus goes another Yankees season.

For some reason, it makes me feel a little bit better about the Red Sox season. I know, they won ten more games than us, and had a shot at a title. We didn’t. What it did prove is that $200 million is no guarantee of anything. Having a lineup with eight all-stars and no fewer than four probable hall-of-famers on your team doesn’t ice the championship.

So now the Yankees may actually have as many major questions as the Red Sox. What to do with their pitching? They have several big albatross contracts to deal with- Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano. Only Wang is reasonably likely to pitch well next year. Joe Torre is apparently a question mark, though Brian Cashman seemed incredulous to the thought that Joe wouldn’t be back. Alex Rodriguez, with his 1-14 showing that is celebrated and lamented in song, may be facing a completely untenable situation in New York. Anaheim (or Boston) may beckon. Those decisions may be taken out of Cashman’s hands.

We’ve seen what happens when Steinbrenner wants something to happen. It happens. I think he’ll can Torre, hire Sweet Lou Pinella, spin A-Rod off to another team, go hard after Aramis Ramirez (who can become a free agent this year) and sign that kick-ass Japanese pitcher whose name I forget. Daisuke something. The one from the World Baseball Classic. The Yankees will be different. But they’ll be back. Oh, yes, my friends. They’ll be back.

In the meantime, Go Tigers!

Boomer's Last Stand

2006-10-06T06:13:00.000-07:00

Here's the quote of the year from erstwhile Sox lefty (and now Padres lefty) David "Boomer" Wells:

"I hope it's not my last start...I'd much rather ride off into the sunset with a smile on my face than with a grin."

Good for you, Boomer. Good for you. Why grin when you can smile? Though we're all pretty sure that he meant "grimace" (which for those of us of a certain McDonald's generation, this creates an interesting visual image of big fat David Wells riding on a horse through the chapparral seated behind the big fat friendly purple blob from McDonaldland commercials. Poor, poor horse) it's always fun to mock athlete malapropisms. My favorite of these, all-time, of course is from Mike Tyson:

"I don't need this [stuff]. I don't know what I'm going to do now. Maybe I'll just fade into Bolivia."

Sorry, that just makes me smile every single time. It never makes me grin.

So, back to the baseball at hand, the Padres and the Dodgers showed themselves fully up to the challenge of proving every one of my predictions wrong last night. The Padres have scored one run in two games against a Cardinals team that only has ONE bat in its lineup. Pujols is unbelievable. Three for four last night with an RBI and a run. That was plenty against a Padres team that is hitting around .150 with runners in scoring position. Boomer didn't really pitch that badly- five innings and two runs allowed. I'd take that.

The (only) bright spot for the Padres is the continued dominance of Cla Merideth. I've heard Theo's reasoning behind letting Merideth get away, but still believe that it wasn't a good decision. After his awful implosion in his major-league debut with the Red Sox last year, he lost so much confidence (and velocity). The Sox knew he was good- that's why they brought him up so quickly. He should have undergone the Roy Halliday treatment. Send him all the way back to rookie ball and let him work his way back with no pressure and under his own terms. It seems to have worked out for Halliday and the Jays. Well, now, Merideth is working just fine for the Padres. His stuff is just nasty. The low and away fastballs make hitters look stupid. He made Pujols look stupid. I wish him continued luck. Could he be the heir apparent to Trevor Hoffman?

As for the Dodgers, they just look overmatched, which they're really not. Nomar's down again, which puts the perfecta on the ex-Sox. Grady was embarrassed by that incredibly stupid thrown-out-at-home double play (keep runnin, boys! keep runnin' hard!), Lowe gave up two big homers after having a really good last two months of the season, and now Nomar's out with a quad strain, I believe. Aren't there any ex-Sox out there we can still root for? Is David Eckstein still playing short for the Cardinals? And no, Johnny Damon is not an option.

And speaking of the Yankees-Detroit series, I have just one thing to say. Joel Zumaya. How in the world could Jim Leyland still be dumping Todd Jones out there to close games? Sure, he finished the Yankees off last night, but a guy can't keep getting away with it forever, junkballing like that. But Zumaya blew 125-mph heat (if you believe ESPN's radar guns) past Jeter, Giambi and A-Rod. That's a closer. If Leyland gets past the first round and continues to stick with Todd Jones at the end of the bullpen, I'm revoking my manager of the year vote.

Oh, right, my manager of the year votes. It's going to be Jim Leyland and Joe Girardi. I'll have to look this up, but Girardi has got to be one of the only managers of the year to get fired before the award is announced. That's a crime. Well, he's going to make the Cubs, Nationals, or Giants happy next year.

Earn More Sessions By Sleeving

2006-10-05T07:26:00.000-07:00

Much of the talk this off-season is obviously going to center around the status of Manny Ramirez. I had previously postulated that Manny stood the best chance of being traded this off-season, given that his contract only has two years left on it, with a relatively affordable $36-38 million. What I hadn't taken into account was that Manny has an agent. And these things are never ever that simple.

Apparently Manny's contract, even after the standard period runs out in 2008, has two team option years. I think it is not unreasonable to expect that any trade of Manny would have to include the other team picking up at least one of those two option years. It's not as if Manny will not have made enough money by that point, but by the time that contract has expired, that's pretty much the end of Manny's major earning potential. He'll kick around for a couple of years after that, doing a one-or-two year stint for a team at substantially reduced payment.

But why would the Red Sox or some other team agree to such a demand? Why would the Sox maybe have to pick up one of the option years and pay some other team $10-15 million to take Manny off our hands? Two words: TEN and FIVE. Manny has been a major-leaguer for more than ten years, and has spent at least the last five with the same team. This means that Manny can veto any potential trade. If the Sox want to trade him, which I believe that they still do, they need to meet all of his criteria, which means the right team and the right contract length. Who might be the right teams? Good question. I'd guess the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Padres, and maybe a couple of others. If I had to bet on a potential winner, I'd bet the Angels. They're going to land either Manny or A-Rod this off-season, depending on who can alienate their teams and fan base more.

One more thought on this- I've come to a conclusion about next year's roster. Manny, Wily Mo, and Big Papi can't co-exist. Not that you can't have three gigantic Dominicans on the same team, but each of them is position-limited. Wily Mo can't play right field, not at Fenway, and neither can Manny. Ortiz is a DH, and occasionally a 1B. Wily Mo will only get enough at-bats to justify his presence on the roster by playing left field. I think he'd actually be ok in front of the monster. We're not getting rid of Ortiz. Coco's going to stay in center, or possibly shift to right field. What's the option? I think it's shipping Manny out.

My vision for the outfield next year is as follows: Wily Mo in left, Coco in center, Alfonso Soriano in right. Make it so.

I've Forgotten My Mantra

2006-10-04T08:20:00.000-07:00

I tried to watch the Yankees-Tigers game last night, and only made it through the third inning, when Damon, Jeter, and Abreu had consecutive hits to score the first two runs of the game. I couldn't stomach it anymore. That lineup is just unreal. Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Giambi, Sheffield, Rodriguez, Cano, Posada, Matsui. Damn. Even with Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina calcifying before our eyes, that's pretty sick.

So I switched over to Annie Hall, just in time to hear my favorite line from one of my favorite movies of all time. That can't have been Jeff Goldblum's movie debut, could it? I'll check IMDB, but that might rank as the best one-line debut ever.

Ok, back to baseball. Here, quickly are my picks for the post-season. As I discovered at a conference yesterday, this could mean big money for all those who read this and immediately bet precisely the opposite of my predictions:

-Yankees/Detroit. Detroit pretty much limped their way into this one. Their last 50 games were almost as bad as the Sox last fifty. They went 19-31, I believe. Their young pitchers have very little left this late in the season. I didn't think they'd hold on as long as they did, but I didn't count on the White Sox pitching staying as bad as it had. At any rate, with the Yankees lineup, there are no opportunities for the Tigers pitching to catch a break or a breather. I'll go with the Yankees in 4.

-Oakland/Twins. I really like the Twins, for their ability to draft and develop seemingly endless solid players. Their lineup is pretty good, not great, except for Mauer and Morneau. The two of them won't be enough, though. Oakland doesn't have Johan Santana, but as we saw, if you can't score more than one run while he's pitching, even he can't win them all. Oakland's overall pitching staff will win this one. Oakland in 3. It's time Billy Beane had some karma break his way.

-Dodgers/Mets. Without Pedro, without El Duque, with maybe 70% of Tom Glavine, I don't think that the Mets can overcome this one. The Dodgers pitching is pretty good, by National League standards, and I think that they'll have enough to shut down even the formidable Reyes-Beltran-Wright-Delgado lineup core. If Derek Lowe's got his good sinker working, this might not even be that much of a series. Dodgers in 5.

-Padres/Cardinals. I know that the Cardinals won last night, and it appears that Albert Pujols may actually be all that St. Louis needs to stay competitive. Chris Carpenter pitched a good game, but the Padres blew too many opportunities in this one. They'll bounce back. Boomer will win tonight, and the Padres will win in 5.

In the second round (I'll not spend too much time on this because I'm going to be so wrong about the first round), I see Oakland upsetting the Yankees 4-2, and the Dodgers beating the Padres in five games. It will be an all-California Series, the second one in the last five years. The Dodgers and Oakland, and I'm going to have to wait to feel this one out. I like both teams quite alot.

Hansack for Rookie of the Year!

2006-10-02T06:16:00.000-07:00

Wowie wow. A no-hitter on the last day of the season! A no-hitt...what? It wasn't official? Five innings? Come on. The kid threw a no-hitter. He probably staved off a still-probable journey to baseball oblivion. That saved him from having to go back to fishing for lobsters off the coast of Nicaragua. Come on, throw him a bone. Call it official. At least that way we can claim to have kept as many rookie pitchers that threw no-hitters this year as we gave away. Don't tell me you'd rather have Anibal Sanchez than Devern Hansack right now. There's enough room on this bandwagon for all of us.

So that was that. The 2006 Red Sox season. The front office is already working on the marketing campaigns for the winter. "Red Sox: We know that sucked. We'll be better. Promise." Not only did the Sox finish third in the East, but they finished with, overall the 8th best record in the American League. You can say that's pretty lousy, and I'd agree with you, but let me also point out that it would have been good enough for the 4th best in the National League. And only a last-week flurry by both the Padres and Dodgers kept the Sox from having a better record than everyone in the NL except for the Mets. That means very little, of course, because the awful Cardinals are getting to play in October, and the merely lousy Sox are not. But then again, neither are the decent-yet-disappointing White Sox, the sorta-surging-but-still-mediocre Blue Jays, the not-quite-good-enough Angels, and the deeply-disappointing Indians. It's a fact of life that most teams are going to get disappointed and get to fuel their early fall-drinking with lots of fresh anger at the Yankees. Tomorrow night, I'll join them as the Yankees take on the Tigers, who fell just short of the Central Divsion title.

I know this will brand me as even more of a Theo/front-office sucker, but I think they're taking too much criticism for this season. Dave Heuschel of the Hartford Courant had a big feature article in Sunday's Sports section called "It's Epstein, not Einstein" that detailed all of the supposedly bad decisions Theo made. People forget that Theo tried, even before he left the Sox before returning to the Sox last fall, that this was going to be a time of transition that required patience. He knew that lots of things could and probably would go wrong before they started to go right again. The worst thing for him that happened this season (well probably not the worst ,but follow along) was that the Sox got off to such a good start. This team wasn't as good as it appeared in the first half. In the second half, they probably were close to being as bad as they appeared, but that was a combination of the plexiglass principle and a huge rash of injuries. Like the Sox, Theo himself is also probably not as genius and visionary as he seemed his first couple of years. Fortunately, bringing Keith Foulke and Curt Schilling in worked that first year. Trading Nomar panned out. It could just as easily not have worked- and Nomar is now providing great offense and gold-glove defense (at first base) for the Dodgers. He'll be in the post season, along with Derek Lowe, Grady Little, David Wells, Cla Merideth, Josh Bard, Dave Roberts, Johnny Damon, and sort of Pedro Martinez. Go Ex-Sox! I think I've got the Los Angeles Sox over the San Diego Sox in the NL.

I've lost my train of thought here. I think I was trying to talk about how Theo isn't as terrible a decision-maker as we think, but rather that our expectations were so high after 2003 and 2004 that any reduction from that level would be a collapse, rather than a sorta-messy retooling. So retool we will, with the heat of an angry and disappointed Red Sox Nation breathing down the neck of the front office. I know I've said this before, but I expect this offseason to be a good one. We're going to see some things that will give us plenty of hot-stove fodder.

And even if we don't, I'll probably still find some things to blather on about.

U-G-L-Y, you don't need no alibi

2006-09-29T09:13:00.001-07:00

Aside from the fact that I was at a conference all day yesterday, I'm not sure what I would have said following the 11-0 loss to the Devil Rays in the last home game of the season. That was just horrible. Josh Beckett sucked just enough that his ERA for the season snuck back over 5- I think he's at 5.01. Nice first year in the AL, kid. This is probably another in a long line of things I've jinxed for the Sox. I noted a couple of weeks ago that I'd like to see 17 wins for Schilling (nope) and a sub 5 ERA for Beckett (nope).

Pitchers are a funny breed, though. There's the old expression "there's no such thing as a pitching prospect" (or TNSTAAPP, for those of you acronym junkies (AJs)) which would explain why the Sox would deal Anibal Sanchez (he of the no-hitter), Cla Merideth (he of the 0.9 ERA) and keep Craig Hansen (he of the...oh man did they hit that hard!). As rough as the Josh Beckett season has been, he has made all of his starts and provided at least some stability in the rotation to justify his contract extension. The news from Queens today is not as good. Pedro Martinez is out of the Mets rotation for the entirety of the post-season. Seems Pedro strained his calf- the other calf from the one that had him on the DL for most of August and September. From the Red Sox perspective, I'm guessing this is precisely what they were concerned about when they balked at giving Pedro a four-year deal back after 2004. He was just fine last year, and the very beginning of this year. He just broke down after that. He's getting a little old for a pitcher, but when you look at his frame and the amount of velocity that he gets out of his little arm, you wonder how he's lasted as long as he has. He may be back, and as a Pedro fan, I hope he is. But 1999-2000 Pedro is never coming back, and you have to tip your cap to the Sox front office for realizing that and not paying for whatever shell of Pedro is left in 2007 and 2008.

So now, the end is near (to steal a line from Paul Anka by way of Old Blue Eyes). The Sox have three more games left against the Orioles, who get to play spoiler in the great race for second place in the AL East. I can't even imagine who the Sox will be putting in their starting lineup. Murphy, Pedroia, Cora, Kapler, Pena, Pena, and a little dash of Papi. I know that it's probably hopeless at this point, but if Papi hits another one, and gets to 55 home runs and 140 RBI, you've got to thing the MVP voters have to think long and hard about putting his name at the top of that ballot. I see this as a Jeter/Papi/Justin Morneau race right now.

In the NL, the MVP is going to be won or lost this weekend. Heading in to the last couple of games, Ryan Howard has been pulling away from Albert Pujols- fueled largely by Howard's big early September and the complete collapse of the Cardinals. If the Cardinals lose the division, Pujols can kiss the MVP good-bye. The thing to watch, though, is if and how the Astros overtake them. My guess would be that if Lance Berkman can win at least one of this weekend's games with his bat and the Astros can win the division, Lance might be your darkhorse MVP. This is, of course, provided that the Dodgers hang on and beat the Phillies for the wild card.

So many variables. One weekend to decide it all. One prediction I can guarantee, though: come Tuesday, I'm going to have to go into barrel-scraping mode to come up with Sox topics. I'll talk about the post-season somewhat, but I'm hoping the Sox provide enough off-season drama to keep my blog afloat.

Who cares about the clouds when we're together...

2006-09-27T10:16:00.000-07:00

Does anyone else want to join me in a rousing rendition of "Happy Trails?" This seems to be the song of the day in Red Sox Nation. As we approach the last games of the year, it becomes clearer that we are seeing several members of the team in Red Sox uniforms for the last time. There are a couple of obvious ones- Trot Nixon, Mark Loretta. Probably Mike Timlin. Maybe Gabe Kapler. Probably Matt Clement.

Matt Clement is a sad story, really. After everyone was questioning his mental and physical toughness, it turns out that he was trying to pitch through the pain of a significantly torn rotator cuff and a torn labrum. That's real toughness. The problem now is that Clement is almost certainly a sunk cost for the Sox, and one of the costliest mistakes this front office has made. He's got zero trade value, as he's facing at least a year's worth of rehab and he's only got a year left on his contract. The Sox will eat next year's $9 million. I hope that he can come out healthy on the other end, but this is probably the last we've seen of him in Boston.

I'll miss Trot- he's one of the original Dirt Dogs, and one of the last (is he the last?) of Dan Duquette's draft guys. He might have even been drafted by Lou Gorman. He'll just not warrant re-signing. I can see him going to someplace like Pittsburgh, Colorado, or even Atlanta who could use a little outfield pop and some veteran leadership. The question for the Sox is who replaces him. There's no way in hell you're playing Wily Mo in right field at Fenway. Could you switch Manny back to right and put Wily Mo in left? Then you've got three outfielders playing at positions that aren't best for them. Wily Mo's best position is probably DH, but that's taken.

There's a lot of talk about bringing in someone like Gary Sheffield for a year or two. Alfonso Soriano, I can accept. But Sheffield? Please, please, please, don't bring in Gary Sheffield. I want to be able to cheer for the players on my favorite team. I am a totally hopeless Sox fan, but I would never cheer for Gary Sheffield. Aside from his general surliness and history of selfish behavior, I will never forget how he escaped from Milwaukee. He came up as a shortstop/third baseman, and could have been one of Milwaukee's all-time greats. But he tanked it. On purpose. He sucked on purpose so he could get out of Milwaukee, and then he admitted (or bragged about) it. Just so no one would think he was really actually lousy. Shortly thereafter he almost won a triple crown (and did win a World Series ring) with the Marlins. Thanks, Gary. Stay the hell out of Boston. On the subject of Milwaukee, I noticed that they have a season-ending series against St. Louis. Milwaukee is probably three months beyond contending, but with the Astros so close in the Central and the Cardinals nearing an epic collapse, it'll be fun to see the Brewers having some relevance in the hunt for the playoffs. I wouldn't mind them playing the spoiler. That would be good for our Brew Crew.

Topic change.

On the radio today, Curt Schilling pulled back from his comments of yesterday that hinted that he might ride off into the sunset after this season. He'll come back. The Sox will make some good moves, some big moves in the offseason, and Schilling will be back. He's still got a bunch left in the tank. It was good to see him finish the season strong, especially after his injuries this summer. Seeing him strike out that thug-in-training Delmon Young three times was a thrill. That's how major league pitching is, kid. That's how it's done.

In for a pound

2006-09-26T06:24:00.000-07:00

The race is on. The games are running out, and the competition is getting heated. Five games left. Can the Red Sox be one game better than the Blue Jays? Can we finish in second place in the AL East, or we have to suffer the humiliation of third place?

Does it really matter? Two months ago, I would have been shocked and offended at the suggestion that the Red Sox would finish in third place in the division. But now? Not so much. The Blue Jays were predicted to make some major noise in the division- they were the ones that broke open the piggy bank, brought in Troy Glaus, BJ Ryan, Lyle Overbay, Bengie Molina, and AJ Burnett to be more competitive. Well, to a certain extent, it worked. They are more competitive. They were able to stand toe-to-toe until the last week of the season with a Red Sox team that lost more player-days to injury than the 1918 Influenza Rays. Congratulations, guys. You still are going to finish ten-plus games back of the Yankees. Way to shake up the division.

I suppose this is the pot/kettle/black attitude I need to have to insulate myself from the pain and embarrassment, but really, does it matter that much if you finish second or third if the Wild Card is not a consideration? Sure, if it happens, all of the talking fatheads (I'm looking at you, John Kruk) on TV and the radio will talk about how this is the first time since 1997 that the division hasn't finished NY-BOS-TOR-BAL-TB. They'll talk about collapse of a potential Red Sox dynasty and question the front office and whether Theo Epstein was overrated. I'm going to quote "Meatballs" now, so get ready. It doesn't matter. It just doesn't matter. We'll have had an overall winning season, but it was disappointing and we finished out of the playoffs. The Blue Jays will have had an overall winning season, but it will have been a disappointment and they'll finish out of the playoffs. Same with the White Sox. Same with the Angels. Taking too much joy or agony over finishing second or third isn't worth it to me.

In a way- an admittedly masochistic way- I'd be glad to see the Jays finish ahead of the Sox this year. Obviously, it will make the collapse complete, but it will probably have two effects. First, by shaking up the division, it should have the effect of scaring the Red Sox front office into making some big moves. I think that the combination of intelligence in the front office and some significantly loosened purse-strings could make for an exciting off-season in Boston. The front office has made some questionable moves, but they've always pretended they had a tight budget and looked for value. If they can pretend to be the Yankees, at least for a few months, and just throw some of John Henry's billions at the problem, we might make some headway.

The second effect is that Toronto might be emboldened by their moderate success. They won't finish much better, record-wise than they did last year, but just finishing ahead of the walking corpse of the Red Sox will feel like progress. They'll throw more money around, but because of their shallower pockets, smaller margins for improvement, and that killer Canadian exchange rate, be weakened by the whole thing. I absolutely understand that the immediately preceeding Blue Jays argument would not stand up to the tiniest bit of logical scrutiny, but it's more that adequate for an insane fan-blog. Just accept it as gospel.

Finally, the Yankees are set to collapse. I just know it. The last two starts by Mussina and Johnson were really really terrible. Their offense may chug through another couple of great years, but next year, Chien-Mien Wang will have to pitch about 125 games if the Yankees are going to have a chance of holding everything together.

Third place, I embrace you. You are the bringer of a brighter tomorrow.

Now it seems more like a Red Sox season

2006-09-25T06:24:00.000-07:00

I was wondering when this would happen. Things were just too quiet, despite the Sox falling officially out of the playoffs. The Sox dropped two of three to the Blue Jays, exhibiting poor relief pitching more than anything. Papi hit his 53rd homer, Dustin hit his second. Julian Tavarez pitched another incredible game- a complete game, on the heels of Josh Beckett's eight innings of shutout ball. Will next year be "Tavarez and Beckett and three days of" ...what, wreckage? If nothing else, Julian has bought himself a long look as a back-of-the-rotation starter next spring. He's under contract, and if he can keep this up, would look just fine as a #4 or #5 guy. That rotation could look something like: Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Wakefield, Tavarez. Depending on health and spring training performances, guys like Lester, Gabbard or Snyder could break camp as a long-man or spot starter. It's not terrible, actually. Health is a major thing, but from the looks of it, the bullpen needs more help than the starting rotation.

The bombshell of this weekend was that Manny Ramirez' agent made this year's announcement official- Manny wants out. Again. I was wondering when this was going to happen. I think it had been almost a year since we heard that Manny wanted to be traded- since last October or November, I think. I was trying to find the name of his agent, and googled "Manny Ramirez agent" and "Manny Ramirez trade demand" and got articles dated every single year since Manny joined the Sox for the 2001 season. Because this is a tune that has been played so often, it's hard to know how serious anyone is or how likely a trade is. We've lived through his waiver offering, the vetoed trade (with Nomar) for A-Rod and Magglio Ordonez, the speculation about Miguel Tejada, and the rumors about the blockbuster move to the Angels. My sense, though, is that this off-season will find Manny with a different team.

Manny has only two years left under contract, a fairly managable $38 million. Assuming his knee is actually ok (a pretty fair assumption), his production should not be an issue. He has been as productive and excellent a hitter as he's ever been this year. He's still one of the two or three best overall hitters in the AL. There are several teams who have both deep pockets and the need for serious offensive upgrades. The Angels fit that bill perfectly. Arte Moreno (the Angels' owner) has flat-out stated that he's going to make some noise and spend some money in the offseason. An outfield with Manny, Vlad Guerrero and Juan Rivera would be pretty damn noisy, I'd say. The Angels can offer pitching and high-end prospects in return. The Yankees have deep pockets, but they've got too many outfielders as it is. Still, if the Yanks don't win the World Series and A-Rod doesn't hit a home run in every at-bat, I wouldn't put an A-Rod for Manny challenge trade past these two teams. The Dodgers could use Manny, as could the Orioles, the White Sox, Seattle, the Cardinals, and the Cubs. Actually, pretty much everyone could use Manny, but those teams could both afford him and has legitimate resources to think that they could acquire him and justify the move.

The Sox are in a pretty good position in this situation. So many teams need offense, and the free-agent market isn't great for offense. If they do nothing, they've got no reason to think that Manny's production would drop off any- it really never has in the past when Manny's tried to get out. Maybe he should show up in a vintage Max Klinger dress. The Sox will have to replace his offense somehow, which is why a Tejada or A-Rod trade would make some sense.

My own strategy would be this- trade Manny to the Angels for Ervin Santana and two top-level prospects (maybe one if they take Manny's whole salary). Take the money you save on Manny's contract and get Alfonso Soriano. He's a free agent after this season (I believe). He has very quietly become a huge offense force. He's going to finish this year with 45 homers, 45 steals, and over 40 doubles. He's going to get close to 100 extra-base hits. I know he wants to play second base, but that's not going to happen. He's not a great defense fielder, but in left field at Fenway, the Monster will help him. It's helped Manny look pretty good, actually. It's probably going to take a minimum of five years to get Soriano, and I know the Sox don't like doing that sort of thing. The time may have come to shake things up a bit. Let the offers for Manny come in, and then let's roll the dice.

King David the LII

2006-09-22T06:35:00.000-07:00

For a couple short moments last night, the Twins were actually in first place in the AL Central, leading the Tigers (who lost earlier that day to the Orioles) by percentage points. But then Big Papi showed up. And Josh Beckett showed up. And someone secretly replaced all-universe lefty Johan Santana with Folger's Crystals. And now those Twins? They're back in 2nd.

A very very good win last night, 6-0 over Johan and the Twins. Josh Beckett threw eight shutout innings. The Sox not only avoided getting swept for the season by the Twins, but also kept their tiny slim playoff hopes alive. Oh yeah, and Big Papi killed two pitches and now is all alone with the Red Sox single-season record.

Did I ever mention that my dog's registration tag number is #34? And that we call her Big Puppi (she's a St. Bernard) Did I mention that my six-year-old daughter has a pink "Ortiz 34" t-shirt that she wears to bed? Did I mention that I've had a man crush on this fella since I saw him at Spring Training in 2003? Did I mention we're both big Green Bay Packers fans? That both myself and his wife are from Wisconsin? Congratulations, Papi. This could literally have not happened to a better guy.

By the way- 52 converted into roman numerals (as in the title of this post notes) looks kind of lame, actually. No V's or X's or even M's. I think that 52 looks better. We'll have to see what happens when the Super Bowls get high. I would wager that Fox Sports would just modify the roman numeral system so that Super Bowl 50 becomes Super Bowl XXXXX. That just looks cool. Any guesses on the percentage of Americans that know that isn't the right number? That's right. LII%

You know...good, bad, ugly, etcetera, etcetera

2006-09-21T10:36:00.000-07:00

Jimmy Foxx was the youngest man to hit 500 career home runs. He was an unstoppable beast by the time he was 30. At 33? Pretty much washed up. After reaching 500 home runs in his early 30's he only hit 34 more homers in his career. I guess you can't call that a sad story, precisely, but it would have been interesting to see what he could have done with better health or dealing better with whatever made him fall off that cliff. Until last night, he alone held the Red Sox single-season home run record, with 50. Big Papi launched a Boof-ball last night to reach 50 of his own. With ten days left, I would suspect Jimmy's going to be in second place before too long. Watching Papi hit that (actually hearing it on the radio and then later watching the highlights) made it tough to believe that he isn't going to be the MVP. The way he just elevates the team and brings the crowd to a frenzy unlike any other player in the game- it's really something to see (well, again, to hear, and then see it repeated every fifteen minutes on NESN).

The other interesting thing about the 50th homer is the number of great Sox hitters that never got there. Jim Rice, Mo Vaughan, Yaz, Manny, and of course Ted Williams. None of them ever hit 50. But Papi did. He crushed them.

Last night's game could actually have been a good one. Thanks to Papi, the Sox were up 2-1 heading into the eighth inning. Schilling pitched a pretty good game for his first time back from the injury corps. Manny Delcarmen got through his work unscathed, as did Foulke. Then came Hansen. Oh my, Craig Hansen. This is the guy who was the unstoppable closer in college? This is the relief ace of our future? This is the guy we wouldn't let go of to have a shot at getting Roy Oswalt at the trade deadline? I'm just not sure what's going on here. It's got to be his head, right? It can't be his stuff. Where's Tewksbury with his Red Sox-logo couch? Hansen needs to find his happy place. Maybe sending him to Thailand to help with the coup would help his confidence.

I still say that Manny Delcarmen holds more near-term potential as a closer. He's got 45 strikeouts in about 53 innings, with only 16 walks. He's allowed a bit too many hits, but he doesn't seem to come unglued as often. I see him taking a larger step forward next year. Speaking of coming unglued, could it possibly be true that the Sox are considering Matt Clement for a closer candidate next year? If there was one pitcher we had that seemed psychologically least suited for that role, it's our friend with the chipmunk on his chin. My suspicion is that the Sox are floating that to convince other teams that we might actually try to use him next year and thus we can trade him for more value rather than just dumping him on someone and eating most of the salary.

So the Yankees, thanks to the Sox late-game collapse, clinched their ninth-straight division title. Remember who won in 1997? The Sox? Nope. The Jays? Nope. The Orioles. They went wire-to-wire behind Mike Mussina, Roberto "Ptooey" Alomar, Rafael Palmiero, and what was left of Cal Ripken. I lived in the DC area that year. That Davey Johnson is not managing in the majors right now is a huge loss for some team.

And now tonight, in order to save a perfect 0-6 season record against the Twins, all the Sox have to do is have Josh Beckett outpitch Johan Santana. Johan Santana who has been 31-2 with a 1.75 ERA in post-all star break pitching since 2004. Johan Santana who may win the first MLB pitching triple crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA) since Dwight Gooden in 1985. Johan Santana who is always #1 in my fantasy baseball draft (well, #2 after Papi). Johan Santana who probably deserves as much MVP consideration as Jeter or Ortiz, and more than Morneau or Mauer. That Johan Santana. Think Beckett can do it? I'm thinking no-hitter. Guess who I'm predicting throws it.

Oh, one more- Johan Santana who is a free agent after the 2008 season. Memo to John Henry: Starting saving pocket change today.

How do you root against a guy named Boof?

2006-09-20T10:06:00.000-07:00

Last night the Sox lost an extremely uninteresting game to the Twins, 7-3. It marked the return of Tim Wakefield, who didn't have his good stuff working. The Sox have a chance to play spoiler in this series, but to be honest, I'd much rather see the Twins and Tigers in the playoffs than the White Sox or Angels or the other contenders. Obviously the Sox aren't going to win anything themselves this year. It doesn't much matter whether the Twins win the division and the Tigers get the wild card or vice-versa. They're both going to be in the post-season, and they're both really good stories. It's actually sort of comforting to see the White Sox in a position of possibly missing the playoffs. At least the Red Sox waited two years after their World Series win for their collapse.

So tonight will mark the return of Curt Schilling. He'll be on a pitch count of about 80, but it would be great to see him pitch effectively as the season winds down and to know he'll head into the off-season and next spring as more of a known quantity. The trouble is that he's pitching against a young guy from the Twins named Boof Bonser. I think, and I could be wrong about this, that Boof was his nickname (duh) but that he legally changed it to his first name. That's committment. That's a baseball guy you have to cheer for. This is the sort of committment that I'd like to see Trot (Christopher) Nixon or Coco (Covelli Loyce) Crisp or Chipper (Larry) Jones exercise. That way if any of these guys made the Hall of Fame, their plaque wouldn't have to say Larry "Chipper" Jones. Of all those guys, Chipper's probably the only one with a halfway decent chance.

Aside from those guys, there aren't a lot of good baseball nicknames anymore- in fact, those aren't really even that good. There are a few that harken back to the good old days of Dizzy, the Little Professor, Big Poison, Little Poison, Three-Finger, Dummy, the Splendid Splinter, the Iron Horse, the Big Train, the Georgia Peach, and the Flying Dutchman. Frank Thomas is the Big Hurt. David Ortiz is Big Papi. Travis Hafner is Pronk. Do you have to be a Designated Hitter to have a good nickname these days? Not always, but it helps. Randy Johnson is the Big Unit. Roger Clemens is Rocket. Keep your A-Rods and I-Rods and Man-Rams. Those aren't nicknames. Those are lazy sportswriters in action. We need more good nicknames. Only The Big Unit made a list of the top baseball nicknames of all time (this was an espn.com poll a couple of years ago- just google it). Chris Berman can only do so much- and he deals more in volume than in quality- not so many of his catch on.

We've got to be able to come up with something for Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Craig Hansen, or Manny Delcarmen. They're still young enough for us to have something stick with them. If we can't have playoff baseball in Boston, at least we can lead the league in great nicknames. Some color for the fall.

And Down Goes Papelbon

2006-09-19T07:14:00.000-07:00

The games this weekend against the Yankees, as marginally satisfying as they were, also continued to mark the apparently neverending disappearance of Red Sox players to the injury list. Kevin Youkilis left the game on Sunday with a jammed shoulder. Wily Mo Pena paved the way to the DL for Y oukilis when he also went down, in Saturday's game with a right quad strain. It seems more likely than not that we've seen the last of Manny Ramirez this season, and I wouldn't hold my breath on seeing much from Schilling, Kason Gabbard, or Keith Foulke.

Perhaps most significantly, they made the official announcement that Jonathan Papelbon was done for the year. When he was taken out of the game a couple of weeks ago, it looked like he just pulled a muscle in his upper arm or shoulder. As it turned out, he actually pulled his arm out of his shoulder socket. Now that is bringing the heat, my friends. He announced that his off-season would be dedicated to strengthening the muscles in his shoulder- an injury and course of action that Jerry Remy actually declared might be beneficial to Papelbon in the long-term. He claimed that young players frequently neglect rigorous off-season workouts because they're young studs and don't need to be bothered by it. But the injury will force Papelbon to concentrate on his pitching strength and mechanics throughout the winter, and could return much stronger in the spring. That would be a welcome development.

The other interesting thing that Papelbon said was that he was targeting a return to the starting rotation in 2007 rather than the bullpen. This topic has been the subject of interesting debate on talk-radio, chat rooms, and stathead websites. I'll link to a couple because they're probably the best on the topic. First, Nate Silver in Baseball Prospectus argues rather convincingly that an elite-level closer (the sort of year Papelbon had places him easily in this class) is every bit as valuable as a well-above average pitcher. Using the concepts of "replacement level," and "inning leverage" Silver argues that in order to be as valuable as an elite 75-inning closer, Papelbon would have to pitch approximately 200 innings at an ERA of about 3.70. This would make him sort of akin to Curt Schilling or Barry Zito. That's a tough call. Would you rather have a Mariano Rivera/Eric Gagne type lights-out closer or a legitimate #2 starter? The big question is whether Papelbon could convert his incredible success in closing games to a successful role in the rotation. Would he have considerably less success the second or third time through a lineup? Does he have enough pitch variety, stamina, and strength do stretch that out?

Responding to these statements, David Gassko of The Hardball Times takes Silver to task for some sloppy assumptions. He argues that replacement level isn't the best way to figure it. Replacement level means you take Papelbon's performance level and then replace him with a guy you could pick up virtually for free off the waiver wire or the free-agent market. Think Bryan Corey or Rudy Seanez. A reliever that would give you about a 5.00 ERA. Of course Papelbon's much more valuable than that replacement. What Gassko argues is that the Sox, or any other team, wouldn't replace Papelbon with Seanez. They'd replace him with Timlin, or Delcarmen, and everyone else in the bullpen would move up one seat. Timlin is above replacement-level, and so is Delcarmen. The new replacement-level guy would be at the end of the bullpen bench, where he belongs. The difference would be between Papelbon and Timlin, not Papelbon and Seanez. The result of this is that Papelbon wouldn't have to be as good as Schilling or Zito in the rotation, but only as good as Wakefield, Corey Lidle, or Josh Beckett- about a 4.75 ERA, just slightly better than league-average. There seems little doubt that Papelbon has got the poise and stuff to be at least a 4.75 pitcher.

The truth, I think, lies somewhere in between these two articles. I don't think that Papelbon is totally irreplaceable in the bullpen- even as tremendous as he's been. If I had to pick his replacement, I think I'd go with Delcarmen over Hansen (there's not likely to be much available in the trade/free agent market this off-season). Delcarmen's got strikeout stuff, he's got a mid-90's fastball and an excellent curve when it's on. Hansen still needs to miss more bats. I do, however, think that Papelbon would need to be an above-average pitcher in the rotation to justify the move. A #2 or #3 guy with #1 upside, maybe. There is no question that much of the Red Sox success this year was due to their success in close games. That gets laid largely at the feet of Papelbon. The emotional lift at the end of the game that the team gets when he runs out of the bullpen is an important point that is hard to quantify. I'd hope he can provide that same sort of feeling coming out of the dugout every fifth day.

Three out of four ain't thrilling

2006-09-18T06:25:00.000-07:00

I know that I could probably take more joy in this. Over two baseball-packed days, the Sox took three of four games from the Yankees. They played good, fundamental baseball, and their pitching was actually pretty good against a really scary lineup. David Murphy got his first major league home run, Mike Timlin showed that he has something left in the tank, Dustin Pedroia got a hit off Randy Johnson in what was possibly the largest height-imbalance in recent history, and the Yankees didn't get to clinch the division in their house against the Sox.

As much as there was to appreciate this weekend, it just lacked the intensity that a mid-September Red Sox-Yankees series should command. I think that the Yankee fans sensed that. The only real emotion they showed this weekend was booing David Ortiz for some blown-out-of-proportion comments he made about the MVP. Every time he came up, the fans booed, and every time Jeter came up, the crowd went out of its way to kiss his butt and chant "MVP! MVP!" Is that the best that we can come up with? That's the only rallying point left on this season? Well, that's sort of correct. The whole thing is rather sad, actually.

I got a bitter start to the weekend's games on Saturday- we were in the car and had AM-880 on, which is the WCBS station out of New York. Don't look at me, that's one of my wife's pre-set stations. It's her car. I think she likes listening to the New York traffic reports. At any rate, the broadcasters went to a remote reporter doing a piece from the Bronx, where the Yankees were having their annual Fan Fest prior to the games. The guy described all of the events and attractions, one of which was a dunk tank. Inside the dunk tank was "a guy wearing a Red Sox uniform. He's really wet."

That just made me sad and a little angry. I know- I KNOW that it probably says something more about me than about Yankee fans, but when I hear about Yankee fans, or see someone wearing a Yankees hat or jersey- my first thought is that they're probably a bad person. I automatically assume that they're a morally void, mindless drone who cares nothing about baseball in general and only worships the fact that the Yankees can buy as many wins as necessary, every year.

I'm wrong, I know I'm wrong- but not always, and not all the time, not completely. I can forgive anyone who grew up in the Bronx, or even in Manhattan- they didn't have much choice. I can understand foreigners or immigrants who love the Yankees. They represent everything big about America, both good and bad, but always confident and usually victorious. It's not until you move here that you see the not-always flattering underbelly. Though I haven't found most Yankees fans, both new and old, to be the most critical thinkers about their team or baseball in general, so they might not ever realize what the presence and behavior of the Yankees means to baseball.

Overall, I think it just struck me as being in bad taste. Dunking a Red Sox player when the Sox are 10 or 11 games out in the playoff race. They'd be better dunking a Mets guy, or a A's guy, or even a Tigers guy. I'm glad I wasn't watching it on TV- I can just imagine that the guy in the dunk tank was wearing a Jon Lester jersey.

Waking up again

2006-09-15T06:31:00.000-07:00

I watched most of the game last night- a 6-5 win over the Orioles. All things considered, it was a pretty good win. It was the kind of win that had it happened in May or June, it would have convinced us that this team had heart and would never say die. They fell behind 5-3 after four innings and slowly gained ground, with the bullpen holding the line. Unfortunately, this is mid-September, and it's hard to get psyched about the win.

Incidentally, this win makes us, I believe 14-2 against the Orioles this year. That, you've got to admit, is a huge benefit of the unbalanced schedule. I know we have to face the Yankees and Blue Jays more, and they give the Sox problems, but you get to fatten up on the O's. On the balance sheet, the Sox are actually 12 games over .500 against the Orioles and 2 games under .500 against the rest of the league. If it wasn't for the O's, we'd be a losing team. So today's thank-you goes out to Peter Angelos. Thanks, you stingy, control-hungry, megalomaniac. Oh, geez. There goes my chances of working for him. I gotta stop doing that.

What I have started to realize, as the Sox fall completely off the face of the earth, is that I am becoming a baseball fan again. I'm still a Sox fan, of course, but for some reason that doesn't take up quite as much of my emotional energy lately. And when you look around baseball, there are some exciting things happening in these last few weeks. The AL Central and wild-card race is actually pretty cool. The Tigers, Twins, and White Sox are all fighting for two playoff places. It's not at all inconceivable that the Tigers, after being on a 100-win pace all year, fall out of the playoffs completely. The Twins are only a game back, and the White Sox are only three back. The Twins also lead the Wild Card by two. The Tigers have three more against the White Sox, who also have three more against the Twins.

The National League West is also really tight, with the Dodgers only a half-game up on the Padres and three up on San Fransisco. They all pretty much stink compared to the top eight American League teams, but a race is a race. The Padres, in turn, lead Philly and San Fran by 2.5 in the Wild Card, wth Florida only 3.5 back. For my money, the Marlins are the best story in baseball this year. I don't think they'll make the playoffs, but if they finish over .500 and Jeffrey Loria still fires Joe Girardi as manager, Bud Selig should immediately take ownership away from him. That would be a crime.

I know you're all waiting for predictions (and now that I have my first comments- thanks guys- I know someone will be reading to rub it in my face when I'm wrong), so here they are. Minnesota will win the AL Central and the White Sox will get the Wild Card. The Tigers will fall just short of a completely astounding season. The Padres will pass the Dodgers in the West, but the Dodgers will settle for the Wild Card. Jim Leyland and Joe Girardi will win Managers of the Year. I'll make the rest of my predictions later. The MVPs and Cy Youngs, as well as playoff results, still need more input.

So...anything exciting happen when I was gone?

2006-09-14T06:30:00.000-07:00

Welcome back Timmy! It's great to have you back, Wake. It's a real boost to our team to have you back in the starting rotation! I hope the rib's healed up. Yeah? Great. What? What's the latest? What's been going on with the team since you've been on the DL? Well, um...it's like this...

Tim Wakefield pitched last night for the first time in 49 games (isn't that his uniform number?) and lost 4-0 to the Orioles, who appear to have a pitching stud in the making in Eric Bedard. When Wakefield left the team in July to let his cracked ribs heal, the Red Sox were 3.5 games up in the East, and had the second-best record in baseball. In the 49 games since, the Sox have gone 18-31 and have fallen completely into irrelevance. I know we've argued that correlation is not causality, but in a post a couple of weeks ago, I did try to pin this free-fall at least in significant part to Wakefield's disappearance. He wouldn't have reversed the trend, but he sure as hell would have saved some of the pitching staff from their complete collapse.

It was good to see him back- not in vintage form, but at least an approximation of where he left off. It was nice of the offence to pick up where they left off with Wake, though. Before he left, he had as many starts and as many innings pitched as Beckett. Beckett had an ERA over 5, and Wake had one in the low 4's. Beckett was something like 11-3 and Wake was 7-8. Thanks, hitters! I suppose that at least this is one way that you can connect the fates of Tim Wakefield and Roger Clemens.

Meanwhile, the season continues its downward slide. I noticed this the other night during the first game with the Orioles- when Kason Gabbard had to come out of the game. I know that every team has injuries, but it just gets worse and worse. Gabbard had some sort of back or side problem. It was announced that Schilling will probably not pitch against the Yankees, with an apparently "sluggish" arm. Coco- who seems to be the only one actually hitting these days- looks like he's in tremendous pain with every swing of the bat on that heavily-taped finger. Wily Mo got hit on his surgically-repaired wrist, possibly re-damaging his hammate bone. I know that Terry Francona is trying to keep the guys motivated and playing the game the right way- he was quoted as saying "the season doesn't wind down. It comes to a screeching halt," meaning that you don't take it easy, even if you're out of the playoff race. But seriously, at some point, these boys need to just call it a day. Otherwise, you might see more than the season come to a screeching halt.

Meanwhile- over in the AL Central, things may have taken a serious late-season turn for the Twins. They had been surging, closing the gap on the Detroit Tigers and pulling ahead of the White Sox for the wild-card lead. Last night, though, rookie phenom (and the reason my fantasy team made the playoffs this year) Francisco Liriano had to shut it down for the season. He had been 12-3 with an ERA around 2.20, but elbow problems will shelve him until next spring. I don't know if this is enough to turn the tide completely and embolden the White Sox to pull back in front, but even if the Twins make the playoffs, this has got to seriously affect their chances. As recently as last week, you could make a reasonable argument that with Santana and Liriano pitching three games in a five-game series or four in a seven-game series, the Twins could legitimately go all the way. Without Liriano, well, would you bet the farm on Brad Radke? He's a solid pitcher, but he ain't exactly Schilling to Santana's Johnson...

Old Fenwaysides

2006-09-13T11:48:00.000-07:00

This week's Sports Illustrated has a ranking of major league baseball stadiums (stadia, I suppose) for their facilities, value, and overall fan experience. Where did "America's Most Beloved Ballpark" end up? Try 28th. Out of 30. Here's the quote:

"Let's get this straight. Fenway is impossible to drive to, the seats are uncomfortable and/or obstructed and it costs a kidney -- or two -- to get in and eat. What, exactly, is the draw? Ah, yes, the history, the passion, the atmosphere of Fenway. But is that really worth more at Fenway than at any other park in the league? To the fans of Boston, who continually pack the place, it must be. And, truth be told, every student of the game should see the place at least once in his or her life. But to wring every last dollar from one of the majors' most loyal fan bases is not merely hard-nosed business, it borders on the unethical."

As soon as I was done being outraged, I had to admit, they've got a point. In my one visit to Fenway (late July of this year), I was struck by how dungeon-like the interior of the park was and how cramped and, let's face it, smelly, it was with all of the fans packed in there. As an urban planner, I have to disagree with the complaints about the location or ease of access. There is nothing finer in this world than a ballpark right in the middle of a neighborhood. Keep your football-stadium sea of parking. Give me walk-up crowds from a hundred side streets anyday. The price of tickets? Well, that's just the market. A successful team in a broadly-based, affluent market will command a better price, that's just the economic reality. In fact, I'd even go so far as to say that the Red Sox fans understand what their higher ticket prices mean. We don't have access to the media market that the Yankees do, or even the demographics and population that the Yankees do. If charging a little more (or hell, a lot more) means that the Sox can be more competitive with the Yankees (at least in most years), they're willing to do that.

As for the Fenway experience- I understand it has changed quite a bit. In the three or four years since the Henry/Lucchino/Werner group took over, the facelift to many aspects of Fenway has been remarkable. The Monster Seats, the right-field roof boxes, and other interior changes have improved parts of the experience. But I do have to acknowledge that the experience for the average fan (maybe even a slightly overweight fan- which these days is average) isn't terrific from a viewer standpoint. It's sort of an uncomfortable experience, but is part of the New England tradition of suffering in our religious experiences. We try to temper our ecstatic experience of a Sox game at Fenway with a fair dollop of pain.

I have no doubt that the ownership group will continue to make changes to try to improve the in-stadium experience for fans. I hope they will, but I suspect that much of the potential changes have already become reality. There's only so much that can be done there. They have a small footprint and some very old infrastructure to contend with. Further, there aren't a lot of other good options in a very densely-packed city of Boston.

I also noticed that a couple of weeks ago, it was announced that the ownership group received a $30 million tax credit for Historic Preservation from the State of Massachusetts. For preserving Fenway Park. Not only are they pulling in record amounts of money from the fans, but they're also making hay from the State for staying at Fenway. I wonder, however, at what point the changes to Fenway start interfering with their tax credit. At some point, adding seating or reconfiguring structural elements to add fan revenue jeopardizes your State preservation credits. I couldn't put my finger on that point, but I'll bet you Larry Lucchino's got a pretty good idea.

Just Manny being underappreciated

2006-09-12T12:34:00.000-07:00

Yesterday’s discussion of David Ortiz’ chances of winning the MVP got me to thinking. Ortiz has a legitimate case for MVP this year, based on his power numbers and his unreal clutch hitting. It would actually be hard to imagine that a guy with five huge walk-off hits this year who will also lead the league in home runs (with 50+) and RBI (with probably 135+) would NOT win. Well, let’s also remember that Mark McGwire didn’t win when he hit 70 home runs. Sammy Sosa won.

But Ortiz isn’t my point today. My point today was that I mentioned yesterday that Ortiz isn’t even the most productive hitter on his own team. Manny Ramirez is. This is what I’ve been thinking about. If anyone has an argument for getting screwed out of MVPs, it’s probably Manny. It’s funny that we have to frequently remind ourselves what an incredible hitter he his, given his spacey personality and outward ambivalence. This guy, though, could possibly go down as the greatest hitter EVER not to win an MVP. Consider the following facts.

He is one of the top four hitters of his generation, without question. Only Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas have a higher adjusted career OPS+ than Manny (Albert Pujols does as well, but he’s ten years younger than Manny). Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, and Jason Giambi all trail behind Manny on this list. For those of you scratching your heads, adjusted OPS+ means first taking his on-base percentage (times on base/plate appearances) and his slugging percentage (total bases/at bats) and adding them together. This gives you OPS. A number of .800 is decent, .900 is great, and a career 1.000 OPS guy is a Hall of Famer. All these guys are upper .900’s to low 1.000’s. The OPS+ means how your OPS compares to the average player during your time. Further, they also adjust it so the numbers can be compared across eras (Babe Ruth era vs. Mickey Mantle era vs. Jim Rice era vs. Sammy Sosa era). If you’re average, your OPS+ is 100. If you stink, you’re probably around 65-75. If you kick ass, you’re around 140-150. Manny has been at 156 for his career. This puts him right there with Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Joe DiMaggio for his career. That’s really rarified air.

Back to this era. The other five guys who are in Manny’s league for hitting in this generation- Bonds, Pujols, Thomas, Bagwell, Giambi- have all won MVPs. Bonds and Thomas have won multiple awards, and no doubt Pujols will win multiples (possibly getting his second this year). And Manny? He’s never finished higher than third- even in a year he had 160 RBI. Even in a year he hit over 30 HR, 100 RBI AND won the batting title with a .349 average. He’s like a supercharged version of Eddie Murray or Rafael Palmiero (without the steroid suspicion, either).

Want more numbers? If you had to bet on any one player to break Lou Gehrig’s hallowed record of 13 consecutive years with 100+ RBI, I’d recommend putting your money on Manny. He’s just reached his 9th consecutive year, and if he didn’t have to spend all of 1997 batting sixth in the lineup behind guys like Thome, Matt Williams, and Dave Justice, he’d have had more than 88 RBI, and be on his 12th consecutive year. He’s also got 11 years over 30 home runs.

Manny suffers from two things, I think: first, the popular perception that he’s a flake, which hurts his standing with MVP voters, who like drama and intensity. Generally, the only drama Manny creates is localized to the overheated Boston media who get in an uproar every time his hamstring is sore, or when he’s demanding his annual off-season trade. Second, he suffers from being uniformly excellent and therefore a great year from Pudge Rodriguez or Jason Giambi or Vladimir Guerrero is only average for Manny. It’s expected.

Manny’s going to be a first-ballot hall of famer. I hope he goes in wearing a Red Sox cap, though I’d have to say I frequently ask myself “what if the 2003 trade did go through, and we got A-Rod and Magglio Ordonez for Manny and Nomar?” (I may address that in a later blog). I hope that Manny does get his due eventually, because I think he will probably be the greatest hitter never to win the MVP. Well, since they’ve had the MVP, of course.

Back for more bull

2006-09-11T09:06:00.000-07:00

I would apologize for my recent 3-day absence and hiatus from blogging due to my presence at the wedding of my youngest sister, but I'm pretty sure that everyone understands. Pretty much everyone who has ever read the blog was there in Cincinnati and thus was too busy drinking to worry about reading blogs. Congratulations Ann and Ryan.

I didn't get to watch any of the games this weekend, catching only the scores and the last few minutes of Sunday's radio broadcast. That was a nice way to wrap up the weekend, a good 9-3 win over the Royals, highlighted by another strong starting outing for Julian Tavarez and Big Papi's AL-best 48th homer and 127th RBI. For me, that made it a good weekend, even though they blew two of three (and five of the last six!) to the Royals. That pretty much makes two things official: the Sox season is done (they're now fourth in the wild card) and the AL Central is the best division in baseball. When you've got the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox all battling for the playoffs, Cleveland who is just a solid starter away from returning to last year's scary form, and the Royals who can kill the Sox 85% of the time, you're in a serious division.

After the game, Papi gave the press some extended comments about the MVP race, arguing (correctly) that the Sox late-summer collapse shouldn't doom his MVP chances. He's absolutely right. His timing is also correct, because he correctly gauged that his MVP chances are pretty much doomed. If he couldn't win it last year, when the Sox were much better overall, he won't win it this year. My prediction is that Derek Jeter will win it, with Papi in the top five. Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Johan Santana, Travis Hafner, and Manny Ramirez will all be in the top ten. Does Papi deserve to feel screwed out of another MVP? Well, sort of.

MVP voters are getting better, but there are still enough traditionalists to keep the award away from a designated hitter for a couple more years. Unless Papi singlehandedly kept the Sox in contention all year and they made the playoffs, he wouldn't have gotten it. A larger (somewhat overlooked) point is that Papi's not even the best DH in the league. Travis Hafner is. He produces more runs per game (and overall) than Papi. Papi's got Manny Ramirez for protection (and Manny actually has been a better overall hitter than Papi this year), and Travis Hafner's got nobody of that caliber protecting his spot in the lineup. If you look at Runs Created or RC/9, Manny and Hafner are the best hitters in the league. Neither of them will sniff the MVP this year.

For total contributions (that means dragging your butt on to the field, Papi), I have to acknowledge that this is going to be Jeter's year. He's at the top of the list in Win Shares (ask Bill James to explain this one- I only read the description once and was convinced it was a decent metric, so then I promptly forgot how they calculate it). Jeter's never going to be a true gold-glove shortstop, but his total package has be terrific this year. Yesterday's offensive heroics should help ice his case. I know, he's got A-Rod, Damon, Giambi, Abreu, and Matsui/Sheffield when healthy in the lineup. They're actually all probably more FEARED hitters than Jeter, but he's been, overall, the best player out there this year.

So Papi, this isn't your year either. I'd still vote for you. But then again, there's more than one good reason why I don't get a vote for this.

Chicken and Egg

2006-09-07T11:28:00.000-07:00

I can't remember the line exactly, and I'm too lazy to google it. There was a scene in the wonderful movie "High Fidelity" when John Cusack wonders whether his life is emotionally messed-up because he listens to pop music or instead if he listens to pop music because his life is emotionally messed-up. It's probably a little bit of both- a nice, self-sustaining feedback loop of misery.

I can identify. I can identify not only with the pop-music element of his question, but also with this Red Sox component. Am I a crazy, obsessed, superstitious data junkie because I love the Red Sox, or do I love the Red Sox because I am a crazy, obsessed, superstitious data junkie? Well, there you go. Chicken and egg.

Yesterday, I was wondering what I could do to help the Sox continue their winning ways through excellent pitching from unexpected places. I, of course, helped create that winning streak through my criticism of the pitchers that would then go on to pitch wonderfully. Last night, Kyle Snyder pitched in an attempt to complete the sweep against the White Sox. The trouble was that I already had criticized him and he already pitched well last week. I didn't know how to keep the superstition going. I'm sorry- I blew that one. And then Snyder blew it, allowing twenty-five runs in an inning and a third (or something like that).

The Red Sox problem may also have something to do with scoring three runs or less in 14 of their last 16 games, but I'd prefer to think that it has more to do with the cosmic forces that I helped throw out of whack yesterday. My only hope at redemption here is to really tear into Kevin Jarvis (who is that again?) or Josh Beckett in advance of their starts against the Royals this weekend. That's worth a try. It shouldn't be that hard for Kevin Jarvis, anyway. The guy's only 0-2 with an ERA over nine. That's one run per inning he pitches. What does that translate to in Royal runs? If he can keep them under five runs in six innings, I think he's doing well. I am not going to hold my breath, however.

Finally, some good wishes and powerful soul force (satyagraha, for all of you Gandhi illiterates) go out to Jon Lester and his family. His press conference and his maturity in facing a very serious situation makes me believe that he'll pull through his fine. I'll be looking forward to him anchoring the back of the rotation in 2007. Get well soon, Jon.

For my next trick, I'll need a volunteer...

2006-09-06T09:33:00.000-07:00

I took one statistics class in graduate school. Following that, I read enough of Bill James and the Baseball Prospectus website to be dangerously intelligent-sounding when discussing baseball statistics (or other types for that matter). All of this tells me that correlation is not causality. Just because two things happen in proximity to each other and seem somehow linked, that doesn't mean that one caused the other.

All the same, I'm pretty sure that I deserve some credit for three of the Red Sox last four victories. I don't want adulation, a thank-you call from Larry Lucchino, or even a mention on the Clubhouse Insider. I just want to know that I've contributed. If you've been following my last few entries (this means you, Mom), I have called out and openly mocked three starting pitchers in succession. I mocked:
1) Kyle Snyder before his Blue Jays start. He went out and pitched seven scoreless innings.
2) Julian Tavarez before his White Sox start. He pitched six-plus innings of gritty ball, ultimately getting charged with two runs.
3) Kason Gabbard before his White Sox start last night. He, somewhat unbelievably, given his 0-3 record and ERA north of six, pitched seven scoreless innings against one of the two-or-three best offenses in the game.

How do we explain this? I know a journalist will tell you that two such phenomena are a coincidence and three are a trend. Statisticians or anyone with a brain in their head will tell you that this is a stupid thing to talk about. I agree with that, as I flatter myself with beliving in the existence of my own gray matter. I am also, however, a baseball fan. I am a Red Sox baseball fan. I have watched "Bull Durham" more than ten times. I know that you never mess with a winning streak. I want to continue to help the team.

The question is this: How do I do this? I've never had this sort of mystical power over anything before (although you should see me toss popcorn up in the air and catch it in my mouth. Pretty remarkable). I don't want to mess this up for everyone. My problem is this: Kyle Snyder pitches again tonight. I've already mocked his pitching ability. I don't think I can do that again to the same effect. Should I change course and compliment him? Do I need to wait until Josh Beckett takes his turn in the rotation to mock another pitcher? Should I focus on a reliever instead? Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez or Craig Hansen? Who is gonna be the target of my scorn and thus keep this highly improbable playoff hope alive? I'm open to any helpful suggestions from anyone who knows more about the mysteries and power of superstition than I do.

Put me in, Coach.

2006-09-05T11:16:00.000-07:00

I may have some mystical powers here that I didn't fully understand until last night. A couple of days ago, I said some negative things about Kyle Snyder and then he goes right out and has a brilliant outing. Yesterday afternoon, I did the same thing before Julian Tavarez' start against the White Sox. He goes out and pitches six-plus innings of brilliance against one of the AL's best lineups. Who is pitching tonight? Kason Gabbard? What a bum! He's a...why, he's positively a belly itcher! As you know, we don't want that. We want, instead, a pitcher.

Last night's win was a great one. It wasn't enough, at least for me, to believe that the Sox can climb back into the hunt. Sure, we got Varitek and Nixon and Wily Mo and Alex Gonzalez and Manny back. Sure, we're getting Papi back as early as tonight. Sure, the pitching looked pretty good- Manny Delcarmen and Mike Timlin both did a fine job.

The best part of last night's game, for me, was Carlos Pena. Duh. That's not a hard choice, given that he hit the walk-off home run, his first as a member of the Red Sox and also hit basically as a defensive replacement for Kevin Youkilis. I'm a lot happier, though, than I would have been had that homer been hit by John Olerud or Doug Mientkiewicz or J.T. Snow or our other recent defensive replacement 1B. The reason, of course, is twofold. First, Carlos Pena is in need of redemption. He used to be this huge prospect- with Oakland and with Detroit, he was supposed to be this defensive wizard/slugger that never quite panned out. This year, he scuffled and found himself in the Yankees' minor league system. This is a big chance for him to redeem himself.

The second reason is of course that he's a local kid. As someone without a lick of athletic ability, even I know that hitting an extra-innings, walk-off home run for your hometown team is hard-wired into every boy's brain. It may be into girls' brains also, but I'll only speak for my sex at this point. Pena hitting that home run took me instantly back to the side yard of my old house on South 38th Street in Milwaukee, mumbling some play-by-play words to set up the situation and then tossing up the whiffle ball to myself and smacking it with the skinny yellow plastic bat. I can only imagine what the noise of the crowd's reaction as he trotted around the bases must have felt like- heck, I was only doing this for an imaginary Brewers crowd. Carlos Pena got to do it before a real Fenway crowd. No wonder he told Tina Cervasio, "it's a really good day for the Pena family."

Insidious

2006-09-04T15:31:00.000-07:00

Last week, there were some feature stories in the news about how Red Sox tickets- pretty much unattainable for the last three years or so, are suddenly really easy to get. The Sox streak of home game sellouts may actually be at risk. When I heard that, I was dismissive. There's no way, I thought, that the Sox fan base would just completely jump ship like that. A market like the Sox front office has developed doesn't just suddenly become elastic like that. The Sox had become like the Green Bay Packers, or like cigarettes. The demand, the loyal base, was secure.

Then this weekend came around, and I have to say I'm beginning to understand the phenomenon, at least in this case. The fall winds started blowing, and the smell of the baseball playoffs was not among them. It was Labor Day weekend, which in this part of the state means the Woodstock Fair and all of its overpriced rides, oddly ubiquitous plastic Spiderman balloons and fair food (I mean "Fair" food, not "fair" in the poor-excellent scale. It is, of course, both poor and excellent at the same time- that's why it's Fair food). The New England Patriots season is starting soon. The UConn Huskies basketball season is just around the corner. The elections are coming up. School just started for the kids. In other words, there's other stuff to think about. Maybe going to a game isn't your top priority all of a sudden.

But who are these fair-weather fans? Do they deserve to be a part of Red Sox Nation? If I had the financial wherewithal, I'd like to think I'd be heading out to Fenway on a regular basis, even in this slump. I'm still a die-hard fan, right? I'm the one that just got the Sox tattoo, right?

I'll be honest, though- this weekend, I followed the games, but it was with something just beyond a passing interest. I didn't sit riveted. The games sort of lent themselves to a passing interest, though. They split four games with the Blue Jays, and slipped a bit in the division. The highlights for the weekend were certainly Kyle Snyder's brilliant pitching on Friday- seven innings, no runs- and the return of Varitek, Nixon, and Gonzalez. Wily Mo Pena made an appearance, and there are rumors of the returns of both Manny and Papi. To say the least, this offense has completely tanked without those two in the lineup. That may actually be a point in Papi's favor when the MVP vote happens.

The low points were more injuries. Jon Lester has cancer. I understand it's the good type of cancer- a very treatable lymphoma- but that's really like saying someone has the good type of cancer. Seriously. Also, Jonathan Papelbon's arm may be falling off, and Curt Schilling has a boo-boo on his lat (what the hell is a lat?) and is missing tonight's start. In his place will be...Julian Tavarez. Let's file that under bad news for now.

The larger point is that all of this mediocrity, these injuries, the utter listlessness of the Sox team right now brings Vaclav Havel to mind. What, it doesn't make you think of Havel? Really? Hmm...

Well, anyway, it makes me think of Havel. In his role as a dissident/playwright (and maybe even a bit as President of the Czech Republic) he brilliantly described the "insidious nature of totalitarian states." He talked about how the little inconveniences, the tiny incremental encroachments on privacy or decision-making, very quickly piled up and became the accepted, unquestioned norm for the general public. When we hear about people in communist countries waiting six hours in a line to get toilet paper, we were appalled. How could this be? How can they take it? It made us so angry and righteous we wanted to jump right out of our cars and hug the person behind us in the mile-long drive-through line at Dunkin' Donuts and praise the lord we live in a free country.

The point is that these things can sneak up on you, and little things- collectively and gradually- can cause a change in mindset and view of the world. Just last week, I was outraged that Sox fans could be so inconstant as to abandon their precious Fenway tickets at the first sniff of a lost season. I gotta tell you, though- after this weekend with its uninspiring baseball and its very inspiring sausage-and-pepper grinders and ferris wheels, it's not such a hard thing to understand at all.

The pendulum

2006-09-01T06:10:00.000-07:00

This must be what it is like to be a Royals fan. Or a Pirates fan. Or even a Devil Rays fan. You get so used to losing that a decent win like the one last night was surprising- even delightful. After six losses in a row, a miserable 2-7 road trip, the Sox limped home to face the Blue Jays. First up was...Roy Halliday. This looked like a terrible, terrible mismatch. The Sox, having just traded David Wells (as predicted), were starting Lenny DiNardo or possibly Julian Tavarez.

I got home around the third inning and turned on the TV just in time to see the Sox have the bases loaded up on Halliday with nobody out in the bottom of the fourth. My thought at the time was "this is where Halliday loses out on his second Cy Young." I fully expected Javy to knock one out. Instead, of course, he hits into a double play, but the lead runner comes in the back door, and the Sox are on their way to an improbable victory.

Halliday did ultimately give up six runs in seven innings. While the Blue Jays are pretty much out of it, they have virtually as much hope as the Sox in getting into a playoff hunt. They needed their ace to shut down the struggling Red Sox. He blew his chance. Sure, he got out of that fourth inning all right, but giving up six runs to that lineup- to my thinking, I think he did throw away his Cy Young chances right there. If Minnesota keeps it up, I'd put my money on Johan Santana. The darkhorse candidate is Chien-Mien Wang. As much as you hate to give credit to a Yankee player, he's be incredibly solid for them this year- he's pretty much their #1 guy. Makes you wonder what they needed to spend all that money on Mussina, Johnson, Wright, Pavano, and all the rest for.

The greatest moment of games like the one last night, for me anyway, was when Papelbon comes out of the bullpen. It's not the fact that it means the game has a good chance of getting sewn up, and it's not the raucus, "Wild Thing"-singing crowd. It's the fat security guard. This old guy has been assigned to the bullpen all year. I don't know if he's been the bullpen guard forever- I've only noticed him this year. When Papelbon has finished his warmups, the fat guy opens the bullpen door for him, and stands out of his way. As Papelbon passes by him, they exchange a quick fist-bump. The two of them glance at each other in a way that is both confident and conspiratorial. It's a wonderful moment. That is a definite advantage of having so many cameras at the park. You get to share this with them.

It's a sign, though, that I am a completely hopeless fan. After last night's victory, I was thinking- well, we've got a ten-game homestand. We're getting Trot and Varitek back in a couple of days. Wakefield should follow along shortly. We can rip off eight or nine more wins in a row. This isn't over yet. I started getting excited. Someone needs to talk me down again. I'm guessing that someone is going to be Kyle Snyder. His reality session will commence at 7:05 tonight.

Get me a knuckleballer! Stat!

2006-08-31T07:28:00.000-07:00

I just finished a reading a novel in which the protagonist would sort through potential girlfriends by quizzing them on their knowledge of losing vice-presidential candidates. This made some sense to me. Of course, the protagonist was also an insane serial killer, so that's about right, too. It's all about impulse control, really.

The quiz that I would more likely use would be this: What does the name Charlie Zink mean to you? Googling his name is totally cheating. This is a test not only of your status as a Red Sox fan, but also a test of your personal internet integrity. Choose wisely.

Time's up. Charlie is a Red Sox pitching prospect, currently (I just noticed), the #1 pitcher in the Pawtucket rotation. He was drafted as a hard-throwing righty out of, yes, the Savannah College of Art and Design. They actually have a good baseball program there- I think Luis Tiant coached for them. I'm not making that up. The kicker? He wasn't making it with his 90-92 mph fastball, so the Sox switched him to the knuckleball. He's been making his way through the Sox minors as a knuckleball prospect.

We're now two years past the time when Charlie (I can't seem to call him Zink) was profiled, along with Tim Wakefield, in an excellent New Yorker article. He now finds himself, at age 26, I believe, on the doorstep of the majors. If I had my druthers, he would be starting this Saturday at Fenway against the Blue Jays. The situation that has created this possibility just gets worse and worse.

The Sox lost yesterday afternoon to the A's by a score of 7-2, getting swept in their second consecutive series. They stumble home after a 2-7 road trip and are about 35 games out of both the division and the wild card. Curt Schilling did get his 3,000th strikeout, but that was pretty much the only good thing that happened yesterday.

The pitching lineups for this weekend go like this: tonight, Roy Halliday vs. David Wells....except wait, he's probably going to get traded to the Padres. In anticipation of this, Lenny DiNardo was pulled from his start at Pawtucket yesterday. He'll probably start tonight. Tomorrow is Kyle Snyder vs. Ted Lilly (the current Red Sox killer and perhaps future Red Sox pitcher). Saturday is Gustavo Chacin vs....TBA. TBA? Is that what the Red Sox season has come to? Yes it has. And it gets worse. The pitcher that would have pitched in that spot is Jon Lester. Mr. Lester, who was initially scratched because of a bad back, is now undergoing tests in Boston for, among other things, cancer. Apparently he was diagnosed with enlarged lymph nodes, and they're checking all the possibilities. I know that this season's long depressing slide began before all of this medical mess, but, geez. This is crazy. I hope everything turns out ok, medically, but this is just crazy.

So all of this means the Charlie Zink may get a little taste of the big leagues this September. I hope that he does. Not only because I love knuckleballers, but it would be nice to see if he can hack it. Do I think he can? Well, honestly, I'm not sure. He has a decent 9-4 record this year, with an ERA of about 4.10. Looking a bit deeper, though, he's given up 65 walks in only 109 innings this year. He's struck out 61 and has a WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched- the lower the better) of 1.55. That's not totally awful, but it's not the greatest thing in the world.

How will his minor league stats translate to the majors? Sometimes it's hard to project pitchers, even those who dominate the minors. With a knuckleballer, it's gotta be different. Aside from a bit more plate discipline, I think if a knuckler will get out minor leaguers, it will get out major leaguers. For comparison, Tim Wakefield's career WHIP is about 1.40. He gives up about 3.5 walks per 9 innings, and strikes out about 6.3. Thus far Charlie Zink has walked 5.04 batters per nine innings and struck out 5.44. That's not Wakefield yet. But if he can harness the butterfly just a bit, turning one of those walks per nine into a strikeout, we may have someone for Timmy to hand his #49 jersey to in a year or so. Not that I'm keen to see Wakefield disappear- hell, knuckleballers can pitch into their late 40's- but it would be nice to see that tradition kept alive in Boston.