The Fenway Forties

Within the last couple of days, the Red Sox announced the re-signing of Mike Timlin for next year ($2.8 million) and the picking up of the $4 million option on Tim Wakefield. Both of these pitchers will be over 40 for next year, and if the Red Sox are to have any sort of success next year, these guys have both got to pitch like they did in 2004 and 2005. They both had injury problems in 2006 which hampered their effectiveness. The front office, however, is clearly betting that they'll both return to form next year.

I have already made a statement about Timlin, which is that he should be solid for at least the beginning of next season, and by mid-season they really ought to have a replacement/contingency plan in place. As for Wakefield, I think that this is less of a crazy gamble. First off, $4 million isn't terrible for a back-of-the-rotation guy. Wakefield's age is not terribly significant, because as a knuckleballer, wear and tear on his arm isn't really a concern. His injury last year was a rib thing, not an arm or shoulder thing. And there's a pretty well documented history of knucklers pitching effectively into their mid and even late 40's. Finally, it's good just to have Wake around. He's a classy guy, a reliable character guy, and in normal circumstances gives you solidly average quality and above-average innings. That sort of certainty in your rotation is well worth the money.

The question now becomes who is going to catch Wakefield. It ain't gonna be Mirabelli. It ain't gonna be Varitek. It sure as heck-fire ain't gonna be Josh Bard. I hear lots of guys over at Sons of Sam Horn clamoring for Rod Barajas. That would be a really nice guy to have backing up Varitek. I don't know if the Sox can get that done, especially if he sees himself as an everyday starter. There is word that the Sox sent minor-league catcher George Kottaras to an instructional league to work on defense. This is the mid-level prospect that we picked up from the Padres in the David Wells trade. I think I favor that sort of move- having a young guy learn the ropes and get worked into the rotation. Catching a knuckleballer in front of a Fenway crowd is about a much a trial by fire as you can envision, and the Sox should know in relatively short order what this kid is made of. Let's give him a shot, at least a shot at winning the job in spring training.

In other news, a couple of other above-average hitters hit the free agent market yesterday. Carlos Lee and Aramis Ramirez are now both offically available. I was looking at their numbers today. Aramis Ramirez has had pretty impressive numbers over the last three seasons in Chicago, but I think that there are many teams hungrier at third base than the Red Sox, and he's not going to be worth the money. He's pretty much at his offensive peak, and that peak is not the kind of production that you mortgage the future for. The same is going to apply to Carlos Lee. His peak wasn't even as high as Ramirez', but he had some high-profile production in the last couple of years. He's a poor man's Magglio Ordonez, and I would say over a full season, Wily Mo Pena would easily out-produce Lee. He'd be useful for the right price- maybe a 2-year deal for $7 or $8 million per, but he's going to get far more than that. Someone will go four or five years for Lee. Again, the Sox will have to pass. I'm still holding my breath for Alfonso Soriano, but I just heard he's looking for a Carlos Beltran-type deal. That means something like 7 years, $100 million. I don't think that he'll get quite that, but he might get 6 years, $75 million from someone. That would probably be too rich for our blood- or at least too long for our liking. If the Sox can emerge with a higher value, four-year deal, like 4/48, I'd bite on that. Keep dreaming, son. Keep dreaming.