The Calm

In just a few hours- eight by my watch- the Sox will begin the definitive series of the season. Four days, five games against the Yankees at Fenway. They are currently 1.5 games back in the AL East, and 2.5 games back in the Wild Card. If all goes perfectly this weekend, they'll have a 3.5 game lead in the East with 38 games to go. If all goes poorly, they'll be 6.5 games out and can pretty much kiss the playoffs goodbye.

These things never really work out that definitively, though. Given how both teams have been playing, and given that this is at Fenway, a 3-2 series split, one way or the other, is more likely. In fact, given the Sox/Yankee parity the last couple of years, it's all but preordained. A series split, especially one in favor of the Sox, leaving then only a half-game out, would be the most torturous. That would guarantee every remaining game on the schedule will give me a heart attack. Based on what we've seen out of the Sox and Yankees lately, you can't say that there are too many pitching matchups that favor the Sox. Wang vs. Jason Johnson? Randy Johnson vs. Beckett? At least Mussina vs. Schilling has the makings of a classic if not a slam-dunk win for the Sox. I'm finding this season, though, these pitching matchups have run in reverse. No predictions from me.

No predictions, but a couple more numbers. The Sox are currently 69-50, having played 119 games of their 162 game schedule. Most statistical stuff that I've read indicates that to win the AL East or have a shot at the Wild Card, 96 wins is just about the minimum you'd need. This means the Sox need another 27 wins out of their remaining 43 games. They'll need to go 27-16 for the rest of the season (a .630 pace) to have a legitimate shot. Technically, they only need to be two games better than the Yankees, but I don't see them collapsing and handing the division over, do you? Is 27-16 doable, at this point in the season, with this team? Of course it is. Is it likely? No, it's not likely, but it's not so incredibly far off. Their current pace has them at about 93 or 94 wins. If you can't steal three games above your current pace at crunch time, you don't belong in the playoffs.

To get these wins, the Sox made a couple of moves yesterday. They acquired former first-base phenom Carlos Pena and former rookie of the year Eric Hinske off the waiver wire. It look like Pena will play in Pawtucket until the rosters expand, and that someone will be shifted to make room for Hinske now. I'm not crazy about Hinske- I always thought his ROY was a result of little competition from a down year for rookies- but I like this move. The Blue Jays eat some of his salary this year and half of his salary next year. This will cost the Sox a very minor prospect (to be named, I believe) and about 3 million for next year. This for a guy who can play a decent third base, first base, or either corner outfield spot, and has just killed right handed pitching over the past couple of years. Since Trot and Nixon went down, the lineup has been very right-handed. Though Manny is Manny and Wily Mo has actually hit righties quite well (1.008 OPS), Lowell, Youk, Mirabelli and Lopez have all struggled, and bringing Gabe Kapler off the bench doesn't inspire fear. It's a good move also to be able to spot start him for either Lowell and Youkilis, who could both use a day or two off down the stretch, without losing much offensively or defensively. Finally, you can hope that this kid will wake up and show some flashes of the power and drive that led the Blue Jays to sign him to that stupid long-term deal in the first place.

As for Pena (Carlos, not Wily Mo), this is a good flyer, I think. He's a very good defensive first baseman (shades of Mientkiewicz or Olerud) that could be used as a late-inning replacement and has power. He's just not lived up to his draft-pick/prospect hype. Maybe a return home (he's from the Boston area) will prove inspirational. If not, it's a low cost move.

The one move of the last week that I had been meaning to mention is the recent promotion of Craig Breslow to the big club. I know that I shouldn't be giddy over 2 1/3 innings of sample size, but this bullpen lefty has looked good. In terms of stuff, his fastball is adequate and his curveball was really effective. He looked like he was pitching with a chip on his shoulder the other night when he struck out two of the three Tigers he faced in a mop-up role. Maybe it's the way the last couple of weeks have gone, with the bullpen dragging their butts, but a good live, lefty arm in the bullpen- a fresh young arm, is incredibly refreshing. We saw with Papelbon's performance the other night what a little rest can do for these young guys- he looked like it was the first game of the year. I hope that Breslow is not the one sent down to make room for Hinske. Send Tavarez or Seanez down. Sacrifice Kapler for a couple of weeks. Let's sic this kid on the Yankees and see how he handles Giambi.