Can We Talk About Something Else, Please?

For nearly a week now, I've had a bunch of topics in the back of my head and in the front of my little notebook. They are little notes about baseball-related subjects that I want to address in one form or another in this blog. For the past week, though, I've had neither the opportunity nor the inclination to do that. To talk about those things requires a motivation, an energy that has been swiftly and steadily been sucked out of me.

Earlier on in the season, I couldn't watch the game when the Sox were behind- especially early in the game. It was too hard, and it was too counter to my belief that these guys could and should win every game. It is a truly remarkable thing that I'm able, and even willing and interested now in watching the entire game, regardless of performance. The fall from first-place front-runner to being several games back in both the East and the Wild Card has been devastatingly swift. The string of losses to the two (statistically) worst teams in the AL has been so complete and definitive that it has almost become an entirely new team, and an entirely new paradigm of expectations. Last night, things came to their fullness, with Curt Schilling (the last pitcher to have seen a win in one of his starts) collapse in the 8th inning. You could argue he'd been heading for that after giving up so many doubles, but despite my surprise and disappointment, I couldn't muster much more than a sigh.

I do believe in Theo and the front office's plan to build a great team long-term. I also recognize that I've only been an active fan of this team for eight or nine years. I further note that despite the fact that we've lost twenty percentage points in the last week, our Playoff Odds are still at a relatively hopeful 33%. This season isn't a total washout yet, but I'm getting close to that point of writing off this season, emotionally, and looking to the future.

Despite all of this, the discussion boards and the callers to sports talk shows are just furious with second-guessing and finger pointing. It's probably more acute now, but this discussion has always bothered me. I love to speculate on possibilities, but have always found it somewhat distateful to second guess. For instance, I can predict with absolute metaphyiscal certitude that the talk shows today will continue to question why Theo didn't bring in a pitcher at the trade deadline. More pointedly, they will attack Terry Francona for letting Schilling pitch into the 8th last night. His pitch count was still low and he'd only given up two runs to that point, but that won't stop the talk.

I think the reason that I don't like the second-guessing (except in the case of Grady Little leaving Pedro in) is that there are too many variables. I took a class in chaos theory in college, and learned a good deal about sensitivity to initial conditions. Taking out Craig Hansen and Jon Lester and inserting Roy Oswalt (even if the Astros would have gone for that trade) don't necessarily add up to winning all these games. Hell, maybe it would have. The thing I can't stomach is the radio pundits and callers claiming with certainty that everything would have been better if we could have pulled the trigger on that.

If there's on thing that chaos theory and watching baseball teaches me, it's that we just don't know what's going to happen. Sometimes things do just go down the toilet. The revenue imbalance that was supposed to kill baseball competition hasn't done so yet. The Royals and the Rays can still take it to the Sox. The Yankees can still lose to the Twins. I do believe ultimately, as the spread of "Moneyball" becomes complete and market gaps close up, the revenue gulf will become a major problem. It hasn't happened yet- because there are too many other things going on. Believe me, it's tearing me up to see the Sox collapse like this. The joy I get in the mornings getting to read a happy headline on Boston Dirt Dogs is a tangible thing for me. But sometimes, things just go down the toilet. I still don't want to accept it, and I don't want to admit defeat, but sometimes it gets really hard and it's easier to talk about something else for a while.