Run-prevention on Empty

As I have chronicled earlier this season, west-coast games can be torturous, adding an element of stress and emotional burden to a time of the day that should be better spend recharging one's batteries. As recently as last week, I was awake until the wee hours of the morning, hoping against hope the the Sox could pull out two of three from the Angels. Here we are, a few more games down the road, and I'm discovering that west-coast games have a more positive flip-side.

They facilitate the grieving process.

About ten days ago, prior to the Yankee series, I argued that with 43 games left, the Sox still had a legitimate shot at the postseason. They'd need about 96 wins, which would mean they'd have to go 27-16 in their remaining 43 games. That didn't seem impossible. Sure, it's was wild-eyed optimism, but it was possible. Since then, the Sox have played 11 games, going a deeply impressive 2-9. Five losses to the Yankees, three to the Mariners, and one to the Angels. They've only NOT gotten swept in one of the last three series. In their remaining 32 games, the now have to go 25-7 to get to 96 wins. I'm totally a "look at the bright side" Sox fan, but I think it may be time to throw in that towel.

This is why the Seattle series over the weekend was a bit of a blessing. I didn't have to watch most of it. Because the games started so late, it was much easier for me to avoid them. On Saturday, we were a good hour into "O Brother Where Art Thou" on TBS before we even remembered that the Sox were on. I was emotionally able to make the decision that watching something else, or even (heaven forbid) getting some sleep, was preferable to inflicting more damage on myself by watching to game. I even managed to be busy and away from a radio or television for most of yesterday's awful series ender in Seattle.

Kyle Snyder giving up six runs in five innings yesterday, ensuring the loss, can not be said to be surprising. In fact, that's about what we'd have to expect. It made me think about a larger point, though- one that I think may be significantly at fault for the team's performance this year: Theo and the front office don't put together great pitching. Since 2003, the pitching- particularly in the bullpen, has been made up of low-risk, high-reward guys. Guys who showed flashes of brilliance at one point, but were coming off injuries or were dumped by other teams- cheap guys with big upsides.

2003 brought Alan Embree, Brandon Lyon, Ryan Rupe, Rudy Seanez, Scott Williamson, Scott Sauerbeck, Chad Fox, Bobby Howry, Bruce Chen, Kevin Tolar, Matt White, Todd Jones, Jason Shiell, Robert Person, and of course Byung-Hyun Kim.

2004 found us with Ramiro Mendoza, Lenny DiNardo, Terry Adams, Mark Malaska, Curt Leskanic, Pedro Astacio, Mike Myers, Anastacio Martinez, and Keith Foulke.

2005 produced other notables like Matt Mantei, Jeremi Gonzalez, Chad Bradford, John Halama, Blaine Neal, Chad Harville, Mike Remlinger, Cla Merideth, and Mike Stanton.

This year, we know what we've got. Seanez again, Julian Tavarez, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Craig Breslow, Jason Johnson, Kyle Snyder, Javier Lopez, Kason Gabbard, and Jonathan Papelbon.

I'm not saying these are all failures- of course that 2004 team won it all, and Timlin, Williamson, and particularly Foulke pitched brilliantly in September and October. This year, of course, Papelbon is having one of the five best seasons for a closer EVER, and certainly for a rookie. But overall, I'd have to say that fewer than 1 in 4 of these relief-pitcher decisions have been really good ones. In theory, most of them made some sense- the idea that "these guys may have something left" or "in the right situation, this guy can be really effective." In practice, though, it hasn't been very good.

The front office would do well to take more of a lesson from the Twins, the Angels, the Tigers, or yes, even the Yankees when constructing the bullpen in 2007. The theory of bullpen construction needs only three words: 1) Stockpile; 2) Power; 3) Arms. Being able to run five or six relievers out there, each one capable of striking out at least 8 or 9 guys per 9 innings, guys that can pound the strike zone with 93-98 mph heat- that's a bullpen. I think that the Sox have started to do this- Hansen, Delcarmen, and Papelbon all fit that mold (though the first two guys have to control their stuff better), but they're not enough. The rest of the bullpen needs to be built around them to make this work.

When I get to that point in my grieving for this season that I can assess the free-agent pitchers market, I'll see who might be available for 2007. For right now, though, I'm somewhere between anger and ambivalence. The fact that we haven't fallen further than the 6.5 games behind the Yankees we started this road trip at doesn't help much. I just don't see this ending well.