An Even Better Part of Valor

Sometimes there's a thin line between boldness and stupidity. Or between crazy and crazy-like-a-fox. Last night, it was announced that the Red Sox won the Matsuzaka sweepstakes, bidding a reported $51.1 million (one million and ONE!!!) for the rights to negotiate a contract with Matsuzaka and his agent, Scott Boras. They have until midnight, December 14, to come up with a contract. If they don't, the Seibu Lions must return the windfall to the Sox, Matsuzaka must return to pitch for the Lions next year, earning something like $3 million, and then try again next year when he'll be a free agent. The hammer seems to be in the hand of the Red Sox at this point. The Lions really want to see a deal done. Matsuzaka really wants to see a deal done. We know Boras wants to see a deal done. The Sox paid a ton for that hammer, but they've got it now.

Before we get to the question of what sort of contract Matsuzaka might receive (or be worth), let's look at the question of the Sox' astounding bid. They apparently out-bid the second-place team, the Mets, by about $10 million. There were a few teams in the high 30's and low 40's. I am, more and more, seeing this huge sum of money as a marketing investment, and don't worry about it at all as a an "on-field" expenditure. If Matsuzaka signs, how many Red Sox shirts with Matsuzaka's number will be sold in Japan? How many bobble-heads? How much will Japanese cable companies pay to broadcast Matsuzaka's starts? (Jerry Remy is going to have to start greeting the Japanese folks as well- "Konichiwa to besuboru on NESN!") There could be a Matsuzaka reality-show in Japan. What's that worth? This is a ton of money, but it isn't thrown down a hole. The Sox have the money, they have the marketing savvy, and they have the motives to make a big, bold move. The other teams can grumble, but the Sox stepped up. As far as I'm concerned, I can barely remember the pain of this past season. The Sox needed to make a big move. This is one hellacious move- I can't wait until pitchers and catchers report.

The more relevant question now is what is Matsuzaka worth on the field. What sort of contract will be acceptable to everyone. As I see it, he'll need at least four years. The Sox aren't going to accept a one- or two-year deal. It would have to be Pedro-esque. Maybe three years plus two option years. There have been some really good analysis of Matsuzaka's pitching, how it translates and how his history may have affected him. Baseball Prospectus did a really nice job of translating his stats, and argues that over the past two years (a better pitcher gauge- position players usually use three years), he's been as dominant as everyone but Johan Santana. That's pretty good. The Hardball Times argues that despite the fact that Matsuzaka's thrown over 1400 innings by the time he's 26, there's actually a good history there. Folks like Fernando Valenzuela, Tom Seaver, Greg Maddux, and Don Sutton are all comps. That's not a bad thing either. Ultimately, I can see something like 3 years/$40 million plus two option years at maybe $15 or $16 million each. Get it done, Epstein-san!