Coulda Been, Almost Was, Still Could Be

There are a couple of significant stories in baseball today, and each of them have a little thread that runs through the Red Sox organization. The three players involved are Jeff Bagwell, Guillermo Mota, and Diasuke Matsuzaka.

Bagwell just announced that he and the Astros are going separate ways after something like 15 years together. Bagwell hit 449 home runs for them, won an MVP, and was probably the least appreciated superstar of the 1990's. He also could have been all of that for the Boston Red Sox. After starring at the University of Hartford (!!!), Bagwell was drafted and came up through the Red Sox system, only to be traded for...say it with me, Larry Anderson. I know that the myopic lens of a pennant race distorts the vision of general managers, but that was historically, one of the most lopsided in history. With Bagwell's shoulder problems and probably salary requirements, I'd guess he's probably going to retire. There's still a possibility he does a two-year deal to be a DH for someone like Kansas City, Baltimore, or even the Rangers, but my guess would be about 70/30 he retires.

When he does retire, he really ought to be a hall-of-famer. If you look at his page on Baseball Reference (at the bottom), they list his Hall of Fame credentials and his most similar comparable players. Those are both very impressive lists. Every one of the non-active comparable players to Bagwell are already in the Hall of Fame. The others are probables like Ken Griffey, Jr., and Frank Thomas. The other thing that works in Bagwell's favor is that despite the glut of remarkable first-basemen in the 1990's (Giambi, McGwire, McGriff, Palmiero, Thomas, etc.) Bagwell's never really been tainted at all by any performance-enhancement speculation. Steering clear of that has got to add up to a few more votes by the Baseball Writers.

Speaking of performance-enhancement speculation, Guillermo Mota was handed a 50-game suspension for steriods the other day. He was, quite briefly, a member of the Red Sox. For as long as it took from the point he was acquired from the Marlins in the Josh Beckett deal to the point that he was traded to the Indians in the Coco Crisp deal (I'm sorry, I meant the David Riske deal), he was one of us. He wouldn't have been at the top of my list of juicing suspects, but, well, there but for the grace of Balco go the Sox. I know that Canseco played for the Sox, but it's been pretty remarkable how well Boston has managed to stay out of that widespread limelight these last couple of years. Something to be proud of? I suppose, until the other shoe drops.

Finally, news got incrementally better from the West Coast today. The Mariners have apparently taken themselves out of the running for Diasuke Matsuzaka's pitching services. After hearing that the Seibu Lions were expecting a posting fee of somewhere around $25 million (nearly double what the Mariners paid to get the rights to Ichiro), Seattle decided that was too rich for their blood. It isn't, in my opinion, too rich for John Henry's blood. I think this improves Boston's position somewhat. Not only does this take out the presumptive front-runner, but it puts Boston in prime position to steal something out from under the Yankees' nose. After spending over ONE BILLION dollars on contracts in the last five years, it is possible that the Yankees are going to be thinking twice before entering into another lengthy committment. Boston's got the resources and the incentive (read: third place) to make a splashy move. This isn't over yet. Sayonara, Seattle. Konishiwa, Matsuzaka-san.