The Third Way- no, the Fifth Way

If you read Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract, you know that he outlines his "Win Shares" statistical system. Basically, it takes into account both annual and per-game performances of players to assign numerical values on their playing. Win shares over 20 per year represent a very good season. Over 30 is an MVP-type season. For some context, in 2004, Albert Pujols had 40 win shares, which is an incredibly good season, almost a unanimous MVP-type season. The problem is Barry Bonds had 53 that year. This year, Pujols had 39 win shares, and Ryan Howard had 31.
Miguel Cabrera, Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright all had more than Ryan Howard.

In the AL, Jeter led the way with 33 win shares. Joe Mauer was actually second with 31. Ortiz was third, and Manny was fourth. Coming in in fifth place, with 27 win shares (tied with Raul Ibanez, by the way) was your 2006 MVP, Justin Morneau. I know the voters don't vote on win shares. I doubt if most voters know what win shares are. Let's take a slightly less esoteric statistic- Runs Created. Again, Jeter leads the way, with 138. Behind him are David Ortiz, Grady Sizemore, and Jim Thome. In fifth place (tied with Ibanez and Travis Hafner) is Justin Morneau, your 2006 MVP. He had 121 runs created. The difference of 17 between him and Jeter is the same as the difference between Morneau and his teammate Michael Cuddyer. 17 runs created is equivalent to about four wins. Jeter was four wins better than Morneau, and Papi was more than two wins better.

To sum all of this up, in the National League, voters overlooked the guy who was clearly the best player on a contending team (Pujols) in favor of a guy who had gaudy HR/RBI numbers on a team that didn't even finish in the playoffs. In the American League, the voters not only ignored the best statisical player on a contending team (Jeter) AND the guy with gaudy HR/RBI numbers on a team that didn't even finish in the playoffs (Ortiz) but they went with a guy who was not even the most valuable player on his own team. Joe Mauer was more important to the Twins than Justin Morneau. On a game-by-game basis, both Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano were more valuable to the Twins.

So why Morneau? For one, he avoids another year of Papi vs. Yankee debate. For two, he had a very good September, like Vladimir Guererro a couple of years ago. Oh wait, he DIDN'T have that good a September. He did hit .348 that month, but he only had 2 homers and 19 RBI. That was his second-worst month. How about August? Not much better. He hit .294 with four homers and 22 RBI. In August and September, when his team was falling apart around him and he didn't have much of Manny to protect him in the lineup, Big Papi hit 17 homers. Down the stretch, the Greatest Power Threat the Twins have had since Harmon Killebrew hit SIX homers. Six. Is that clutch? Is that putting your team on your back and carrying them to the playoffs? Now I'm not saying that Papi is the best choice for MVP. I'm saying that if you're not going to give it to him, you better give it to Jeter, and vice-versa. I'm just trying to figure out why the voters acted this way. It wasn't statistics. It wasn't huge numbers. It wasn't even the most remarkable player on a playoff team. It was a good player having a very good year. Most Valuable? Not even close.

Want to know the truth? Ok. The truth is I'm still bitter about dropping Morneau from my fantasy team this year. I already had Papi at first and when Morneau started slowly, I dropped him in favor of speed- Chone Figgins or someone. I know. Stupid. But that doesn't mean my arguments are less valid, does it? Does it?