Hitting Projections

I've got a major Matsuzaka hangover. I've got a headache, blurred vision, I'm sensitive to bright lights or noises, I'm a bit nauseous, and I'm wicked sluggish. After this psychological roller coaster culminating in the triumphant signing (and extremely perplexing press conference) of Matsuzaka, I stumble in to this post with not much to offer. I appreciate you staying with me, though.

My birthday's coming up before too long, and I think I may be asking for some true 21st-century gifts. I had said that I'd never pay for ESPN Insider, and had given up paying for Baseball Prospectus with the emergence of Baseball Analysts, The Hardball Times, and other decent, free sites. I'd never really even considered signing up for Baseball America. I am, however, starting to cave a bit. If I can get someone else to buy me subscriptions to these sites, I not only can feel morally righteous about not paying for them, but I'll get to reap their rewards. BA will give me scouting updates, ESPN-I will give me the best insider blogs, and BP will give me as much smug, sarcastic sabermetrics as I can handle. Also, and perhaps most importantly, it will give me PECOTA.

A recent posting on Sons of Sam Horn provided some projections for the Boston hitters in 2007. They included ZIPS, Bill James/BIS, and Ron Shandler, then taking those against 2006 numbers, and also giving averages. The problem is that for a couple of years now, PECOTA projections for hitters has been much better than other systems. They had a r-value of around .740 this year, which for hitting projections is pretty damn good. For pitching, nobody is really very good. You can project about 50% of pitching, and the rest is a crap shoot. So while these numbers that we're seeing on the SOSH website are interesting, the proven most-accurate numbers are missing (because they're proprietary and you have to pay for them).

A couple of notes from the projections, though:
- Manny is predicted at an average line of .306/.414/.599 with 39 HR and 121 RBI. In other words, if he shows up, he'll be Manny again.
- Ortiz should be a beast again- .295/.401/.618 with 49 HR and 138 RBI. His OBP is a little lower than it would have been if Manny was traded, but that's just fine. He'll get more pitches to hit.
- Nobody is projecting J.D. Drew to get 500 AB, but everyone sees him producing at an .877 OPS when he's in the lineup.
- Varitek and Coco should have rebound years, fueled largely by small bumps in power and substantal bumps in batting average- they were both way off their career averages last season.
- Youk and Lowell are projected at almost exactly their production from last year. That's good for Lowell, but still a bit disappointing from Youk, who would really benefit from a bit more pop.
- Both Lugo and Pedroia are projected for an OPS of .760, with Pedroia hitting a few more doubles and Lugo a couple more homers. I'm really surprised that Pedroia's projected OBP is so low. An OBP of .350 from a rookie middle infielder isn't terrible by any stretch, but I'm convinced he can do better than that.
- I can't see how Wily Mo is going to get nearly 400 AB this year, but I'd be pretty happy with the 20+ homers that would accompany that.