Closing the Deal

The last major component the Red Sox seem to need in this offseason is a presence at the back end of the bullpen. The Sox need a solid, reliable, even dominant closer. Obviously, things with Daisuke Matsuzaka are still up in the air, and I'll not believe that all possibilities of a Manny trade are extinguished just yet, but this team, as currently constructed, is a pretty solid one all the way into the bullpen.

There are a couple of possibilities I've heard, have thought about, and are being speculated upon. The first is Eric Gagne. Gagne is a free agent, another client of Scott Boras, and one of those high-risk, high-reward projects that Theo seems to like so much in a pitching staff. Looking at moves like Scott Williamson, Chad Fox, Bobby Howry, Wade Miller, Matt Mantei, and David Wells, we see that Theo likes guys with tremendous upside and some history of great pitching effectiveness who have had some relatively recent injury/ineffectiveness issues. Taking these risks into account, Theo gambles with incentive-laden deals or wait-and-see type contracts. Looking at that list I just put together, there are at least as many misses as hits. Only Williamson and Wells really contributed in a significant way.

Gagne could be one of these guys. Since his three year run from 2002-2004 of pitching over 80 innings and saving an average of 50 games a year, he's only pitched 15 innings in the last two years. His shoulder, knees, and arm have all been trouble. If I had to speculate, I would guess (given the beefy physique he sported in his prime and his high-stress delivery) that his body broke down somewhat- whether that was aided by some pharmaceutical side-effects I think is a fair question. Heck, if a beanpole like Guillermo Mota was hitting the juice...well, let's just stop there. If he's relatively healthy (a big IF) then I think I could get behind an incentivized deal- maybe like a $3 million base with two more threes kicking in based on appearances. Even in this market, and even for a Boras client, I don't see Gagne getting anywhere near his 2006 salary ($10 million) guaranteed.

There have been a couple of names floated in relation to Manny trades that are very interesting: Dodgers youngster Jonathan Broxton, who reminds me a lot of Bobby Jenks- real big fella, throws real hard; the Nationals' Chad Cordero, a very good young reliever who would have to be a part of a three-way deal (maybe with the Giants or Rangers?); and J.J. Putz from the Mariners. That's the name that really caught my attention. He was really really good last year. Thirty saves or so, and over 100 strikeouts in under 80 innings. That's throwing smoke. The trouble is, if you look at his stats the two previous years, he's only about half as good- literally. He goes from striking out about 5 batters per 9 innings to 10. Did he just figure it out? Did he tinker with his mechanics and make the leap? Is it just a fluke? Is it chemically-aided? Will he fall back to earth next year? Those and more questions may be academic only, as Manny may not be traded.

The fall-back option could still be internal. Though Keith Foulke has said he's not too interested in rejoining the Sox, they still have a potentially fat arbitration paycheck out there. It's possible (especially with his injury history) that Foulke won't get anywhere close to $7 million that he could get with the Sox. He might hold his nose and try to ignore Johnny from Burger King for one more year and re-prove himself as an elite closer. I'd take that. I like a guy with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove- especially if a big paycheck is dangling out there for him. Finally, the Sox may be in a position of turning back to Papelbon. I know that he probably wants to be a starter (and his agent sure as hell wants that), but if you were asked in late July of last year what young reliever would you choose to build your bullpen around, you'd choose Papelbon, hands down. Over Cordero, over Jenks, over Putz, maybe even over Zumaya. Papelbon's got the goods. He could be the best closer in baseball for a bunch of years. I know you might cramp his style a bit, but that's not a terrible fallback position. If you can convince him he can help the team more from the bullpen, that's not so terrible.