Groundhog Day

I feel oddly like I've been here before. Something about this territory is weirdly familiar. It's a feeling of disappointment, of dashed hopes in a minor key. Somehow, though, this is also a comfortable, almost soothing feeling- like knowing you've been through this daunting stretch of dark woods before.

Well, after the Sox 7-6 loss last night in a game they really didn't need to lose (except metaphysically), we find ourself solidly and familiarly in second place- staring up across a one-game gulf at the New York Yankees. If this seems like an odd sense of deja vu, that's because every year since 1998, the AL East standings have eventually shaken out just as they appear right now (NYY-BOS-TOR-BAL-TAM). Did I mention that the classic Bill Murray/Andie McDowell comedy was on TV last night also? I flipped back and forth. The movie was funnier.

I'm not by any stretch of the imagination conceding the division at this point in the season. I'm just suggesting that some greater force may be at work here. It could be an inner force- the Red Sox as a team, and their fan base, may actually be more comfortable in second place. We might have more motivation, more fire because of the familiarity of this position. If you're consistently better than the Yankees, what is there to drive you? We may in some way need them to keep us going. In that sense, you almost hope the Sox are playing with the Yankees like a cat plays with a mouse. Don't let it die- just shake it around, give it hope, let it stagger a few feet away, toward freedom, then silently put a paw on its tail and reel it in. It's a comforting thought, and I'm more and more convinced that the Sox have the offensive firepower to make that happen. There's just also this nagging possibility that the Sox are the mouse in this situation.

So now here we sit, as we have sat before (even in our wonderful 2004 season), in second place. Aside from having to endure Yankee-fan gloating, this hasn't worked out too badly for the Sox. Since 1998, we have made the playoffs five times (by my count) from the number 2 slot in the East. We've made the ALCS three times, and won it all. Sure, a bunch of division titles would be nice, but playoffs are playoffs. There's not a huge downside to the wild card. Except this year, there's a catch. We've got the White Sox and the Twins also with their eye on that prize, and each one has the capacity to get it. Assuming the Tigers don't totally collapse, and the Yankees don't run away with the East, you'll have four teams jockeying for two spots. We've been here before, and I still really like our chances.

With that in mind, however, I have to confess that as of yesterday, my seasonal obsessive-compulsive disorder has begun. There is a place on the web where crazed stat-head fans like myself can feed their particular disease. This place is Baseball Prospectus' "Postseason Odds" page. Using a complex algorithm that takes each team's statistics to this point in the season and plays out their remaining record for them- a million times- the BP guys come up with statistical odds of each team making the playoffs. As of this morning, the Sox were at 65% (34% chance of winning the division, 31% chance of winning the wild card). Comfortingly, last night's game didn't really affect our odds much- we were at 65% yesterday also. Starting yesterday, not a day will go by (a day in which I have internet access) when I will not check that website. And I will fret. Oh, how I will fret.

Tangentially, I have loved the BP website for many years- since they started in the mid-to-late 1990's really. This past year, however, I have stopped reading it. They started charging an annual membership to see most of the articles. The articles are very good, of course- still the best of their type, but almost predictable. They have carved out their niche in the performance-analysis world, as well as their tone and approach. It's just no longer worth $40 a year to read that every day. There are too many other things to do, and too many other options on the web now. The Hardball Times, Baseball Analysts, the Sons of Sam Horn, Sabernomics- put them together, and they're reasonable replacements for my formerly beloved BP. Fortunately, though, the Playoff Odds are still in the free section of their website.

I want to end with two quick things that I learned yesterday that I find laughable. I'm not laughing right now, but, well, let's say these things would be amusing were they not so stupid. First, Bruce Sutter entered the Hall of Fame this week. Good for him- the days in St. Louis as being "The Bullpen Named Bruce" were dominant indeed. His official bronze Hall of Fame plaque, however, is less impressive. There's a typo. One of the phrases reads something like "Lead his league in saves three times..." Are you with me on this? Shouldn't that be "Led?" Well, that's ok. This is only his permanent enshrinement.

The other thing strikes a little closer to my childhood home. Last week, the Milwaukee Brewers introduced a new contestant in their famous and very popular "Sausage Races." For those of you who don't know, in one of the inning breaks at Miller Park, several people dressed as enormous sausages come out on the field and have a race. A bratwurst, a hot dog, an italian sausage, and a polish sausage duke it out for glory. It's pretty cool. Last week, in an appropriate nod to Milwaukee's substantial hispanic population, the Brewers added a chorizo to the race. I, for one, was psyched. There's nothing like additional competition to keep my favored polish sausage in shape. Word came down yesterday, though, that Commissioner Bud Selig (he used to own the Brewers, by the way) has shut down the chorizo for the season. MLB rules apparently require a special registration process for new mascots, which the chorizo did not follow. Milwaukee's spicy-sausage supporters will have to wait until next year to cheer their favorite running meat. I'd like to be around next time Bud wanders down to Conejeto's on the near south side for lunch. No chorizo for you!