Outskirts of Red Sox Nation

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

For my next trick, I'll need a volunteer...

I took one statistics class in graduate school. Following that, I read enough of Bill James and the Baseball Prospectus website to be dangerously intelligent-sounding when discussing baseball statistics (or other types for that matter). All of this tells me that correlation is not causality. Just because two things happen in proximity to each other and seem somehow linked, that doesn't mean that one caused the other.

All the same, I'm pretty sure that I deserve some credit for three of the Red Sox last four victories. I don't want adulation, a thank-you call from Larry Lucchino, or even a mention on the Clubhouse Insider. I just want to know that I've contributed. If you've been following my last few entries (this means you, Mom), I have called out and openly mocked three starting pitchers in succession. I mocked:
1) Kyle Snyder before his Blue Jays start. He went out and pitched seven scoreless innings.
2) Julian Tavarez before his White Sox start. He pitched six-plus innings of gritty ball, ultimately getting charged with two runs.
3) Kason Gabbard before his White Sox start last night. He, somewhat unbelievably, given his 0-3 record and ERA north of six, pitched seven scoreless innings against one of the two-or-three best offenses in the game.

How do we explain this? I know a journalist will tell you that two such phenomena are a coincidence and three are a trend. Statisticians or anyone with a brain in their head will tell you that this is a stupid thing to talk about. I agree with that, as I flatter myself with beliving in the existence of my own gray matter. I am also, however, a baseball fan. I am a Red Sox baseball fan. I have watched "Bull Durham" more than ten times. I know that you never mess with a winning streak. I want to continue to help the team.

The question is this: How do I do this? I've never had this sort of mystical power over anything before (although you should see me toss popcorn up in the air and catch it in my mouth. Pretty remarkable). I don't want to mess this up for everyone. My problem is this: Kyle Snyder pitches again tonight. I've already mocked his pitching ability. I don't think I can do that again to the same effect. Should I change course and compliment him? Do I need to wait until Josh Beckett takes his turn in the rotation to mock another pitcher? Should I focus on a reliever instead? Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez or Craig Hansen? Who is gonna be the target of my scorn and thus keep this highly improbable playoff hope alive? I'm open to any helpful suggestions from anyone who knows more about the mysteries and power of superstition than I do.

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