Outfield Options

Over the long holiday weekend, it was announced that another piece of the free-agent-slugging-outfielder puzzle had fallen into place. Following closely on the heels of the Angels' announcement that they had signed Gary Matthews, Jr. to a 5/$50 million deal, the Astros announced that they had "won" the Carlos Lee sweepstakes. Carlos Lees gets 6 years, $100 million. It was rumored that the San Francisco Giants offered more, but of course Texas has no state income tax AND Lee owns a big ol' ranch down there in Texas, so he could commute to Minute Maid Park by Palomino. It's hard to put a dollar figure on those intangibles. Six years and a hundred mil for Carlos Lee. This is a guy who was considered the poor man's Magglio Ordonez when they both played for the White Sox, at a time when Magglio Ordonez was considered the poor man's Manny Ramirez. I know when you're starting with Manny, even small shifts down can still be impressive, but that's a brutal overpayment. I imagine that playing half his games at Minute Maid will probably keep Lee's numbers respectable for a few years, but this is just one crazy market.

I know that I probably shouldn't rail against the nutty contracts being doled out all over baseball, particularly when I am so much in favor of the insane dealings for Matsuzaka. But I am, and I'll continue to do so, for a couple of reasons. First, the Matsuzaka posting fee is not salary. Sure, it involves the acquisition of a single player, but it is more market-development money than anything. Plus, I'm not convinced the Sox aren't going to get some of that back under the table. Second, there is no property in baseball worth overspending for like an ace pitcher. Hitters come and go and have varying degrees of fungibility. But when you've got Roger Clemens or Pedro Martinez (circa 1999) or Curt Schilling (circa 2004) or Johan Santana (circa NOW), you open up the money bag for them. You back up that Brinks truck. These are the guys who can make possible contenders champions. I think Matsuzaka could be one of those guys. Third, I think that teams are overreacting to the apparent lack of decent power on the open market. Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Lee were really the only names out there, and the NL Central got them all. As a result, the Dodgers overpaid for Juan Pierre, and the Angels overpaid for Gary Matthews. The Giants are still out there, desperately trying to overpay for someone.

The Giants, like the Red Sox, are looking carefully at both J.D. Drew and Manny Ramirez. Apparently the White Sox might be as well, as might the Phillies, despite Pat Gillicks "headache" remarks about Manny. The Giants, likely losing Barry Bonds for next year (though he may still stagger back there if his market dries up enough- the A's still need a DH...) need a power bat in their outfield. Manny may fit the bill for the incredibly forgiving Giants fans. That would net the Sox some pitching, some prospects, and some salary space for J.D. Drew. I still think this may work out, though it is more of a gamble than I originally thought.

I checked into some numbers on this. Replacing Manny in left with Wily Mo Pena and replacing Trot in right with J.D. Drew wasn't as seamless as I thought. Manny is just so good, so productive that he warps most analysis. Using the Runs Created per game (RC/G) statistic found on Hardball Times, Manny has had a three-year run of 8.5/9.2/9.9. These are awfully good numbers. I'm using the per game numbers rather than cumulative numbers because both Trot and Wily Mo have had playing-time issues. Trot's numbers are 6.2/6.3/5.2. That 5.2 is this year, and may represent where he's headed as he ages. J.D. Drew has been 9.4/7.8/7.6, which is quite respectable. Wily Mo is at 6.1/4.5/5.4, which may be all across the board for reasons of youth, position and team uncertainty, or just downright flakiness. Depending on how you look at it or weigh it, the Sox could be losing a run or two per game with the rebuilt outfield. The defense will be better, particularly with Drew in right, but that's not great. That's especially not great if you have to pay Drew Carlos Lee-type money. That's almost Manny money, and part of the point is to dump Manny's money. It's also to dump Manny, I guess, if you believe the stuff that Dan Shaughnessy is writing about his end-of-year quitting.

As I type this I also checked one more possibility- since the Orioles are also looking for a slugging outfielder and have a well-paid malcontent in their midst, a Manny-for-Miguel trade could still be an option. Miguel Tejada fits a couple of needs- one for a middle-of-the-order bat, and the other for one hell of a shortstop. The numbers? Well, they aren't as good as I thought. His three year RC/G is only 7.5/6.5/6.4 which is good for a shortstop, but not the production (nor the trendline) you'd want to see.

So what to do? What to do? You tell me.