Barry vs. The Unit

As all remains relatively quiet in Red Sox Nation, there is a bit of time to take a look at what the Yankees are up to. Rumors are flying around wildly, centering mostly on Randy Johnson. He's got a no-trade clause, but has apparently expressed willingness to be traded to a west-coast team, presumably the Diamondbacks, the Padres, the Dodgers, or the Mariners (in that order). The Padres probably have the most to offer for him.

To cover the hole in their rotation, and in an effort to get younger and more reliable, the Yankees are now also apparently trying to get in on the Barry Zito sweepstakes. The Mets are still in, and the Rangers have given Barry some sort of deadline for their bid. Nobody likes an ultimatum, even more than nobody likes pitching for the Rangers, so I'd guess that Barry will look at the Mets and the Yankees, with maybe the Giants as a darkhorse. The big question is: is switching Randy Johnson for Barry Zito a good idea?

The answer is yes- if you're the Red Sox.

The upside of signing Barry Zito is that he's younger and healthier. At the end of a six-year deal, he'll be in his mid-30's, and Randy Johnson will be like 50. Also, Randy's got back problems, knee problems, attitude problems, and facial hair problems. Barry's never been on the DL. It achieves the goal of getting the Yankees younger. But does it make them better? I don't believe that it does- not for next year, anyway.

Look at the projections. All of the projection systems I can find seem to believe that Randy Johnson's 2006 was messed up. He did end up with an ERA of 5.00, but that seems to be more bad luck than crappy pitching. His BABIP (batting average on balls-in-play) when runners were on base was .369. When the bases were clear, he held batters to a .206/.271/.341 line. That's good pitching. ZIPS has Randy Johnson v.2007 at an ERA of 3.71. PECOTA has him at 3.52. In each case, he's projected to be the Yankees' BEST starter.

Compare that with Zito. I can't find the PECOTA projection for him, but ZIPS has him at 4.56, which is a tribute to the negative trends in his strikeout rates and his walk rates. Sure, he's healthy and still has a good curveball, but if he's already declining in his effectiveness, why do you want that contract? So if the Yankees want to trade one of the best pitchers of the last decade, someone ripe for a big rebound year for a multi-year deal with a soft-tossing lefty with questionable trendlines, I'm all for it. Welcome to New York, Barry. Happy Trails, Unit.