I Think It's Still Pronounced "Shawn"

I'm always humbled by guys who can do this stuff. One likes to feel special, like one occupies a special and irreplaceable niche in the world, but then again, one is always reminded that there are hundreds or thousands of others out there that can do all of the different things you can do, except better. In other words- you're precious, unique and special- just like everyone else.

There's a dude out there named Chone Smith who happens to be a big Angels fan. This strikes me as a bit of an improbability. Improbable because his unusual first name is the same as the unusual first name of his favorite player on the Anaheim Angels of Orange County Just Outside Los Angeles County But Still Within The Greater Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Such That Having Los Angeles In The Team Name Is Somewhat Accurate But Mostly A Marketing Conceit is also Chone. Chone Figgins, the world's most versatile utility guy, pronounces his name "Shawn." I'd guess that the blogger is pronounced the same way.

So this blogger came up with a projection system which he calls...um...CHONE. Something tells me this guy would be really easy to hack, but I have to give some respect to his system. His hitting projections are right up there with PECOTA, ZIPS, and the Bill James/BIS guys, with an accuracy between 65% and 70% or so.

His projections are sort of a good news/bad news scenario for the Sox. On the good news side, he sees really solid years from Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jonathan Papelbon. Matsuzaka projects to a 3.46 ERA over 187 innings with a 171/52 K/BB ratio. That's a year like Mike Mussina had last year, and with the Sox offense could mean 18 wins for our new pitcher. Papelbon projects to a 3.63 ERA, but his innings are only at 139, probably because it's difficult to project innings from a converted closer. The bad news is that CHONE sees further decline from Curt Schilling, checking in with a 4.25 ERA, though still with a strong K/BB ratio. Wakefield comes in with a 4.76 ERA and rather disappointing strikeout numbers. In between these is Josh Beckett. He projects at an ERA of 4.30 over 186 innings and a K/BB of 152/65. He's projected at 25 homers, which is a great improvement, and would probably explain the lower ERA number. That's better than last year, obviously, but I still find it disappointing. I can't help maintaining high hopes for an ace-like breakout from Beckett.

On the Yankees' side of the spreadsheet, CHONE agrees with PECOTA and ZIPS- seeing Randy Johnson as the probable ace of the Yankees' staff in 2007. Declines are seen from Wang and Mussina. Mediocrity (4.33 ERA) is projected for Andy Pettitte and for Kei Igawa (4.44) and Carl Pavano (4.45). This is just one more reason to hope that the Yankees can finish off the trade to the Diamondbacks. Heck, with the expected bounceback year from the Big Unit, combined with a return to the pitching-friendly NL West? He could be in line for another Cy Young.

All things considered, then, I would take the Sox pitching over the Yankees pitching easily for the 2007 season. The hitting is another issue. That's what is going to make this season close in the AL East. I'll have to look at those numbers more closely.