And Down Goes Papelbon

The games this weekend against the Yankees, as marginally satisfying as they were, also continued to mark the apparently neverending disappearance of Red Sox players to the injury list. Kevin Youkilis left the game on Sunday with a jammed shoulder. Wily Mo Pena paved the way to the DL for Y oukilis when he also went down, in Saturday's game with a right quad strain. It seems more likely than not that we've seen the last of Manny Ramirez this season, and I wouldn't hold my breath on seeing much from Schilling, Kason Gabbard, or Keith Foulke.

Perhaps most significantly, they made the official announcement that Jonathan Papelbon was done for the year. When he was taken out of the game a couple of weeks ago, it looked like he just pulled a muscle in his upper arm or shoulder. As it turned out, he actually pulled his arm out of his shoulder socket. Now that is bringing the heat, my friends. He announced that his off-season would be dedicated to strengthening the muscles in his shoulder- an injury and course of action that Jerry Remy actually declared might be beneficial to Papelbon in the long-term. He claimed that young players frequently neglect rigorous off-season workouts because they're young studs and don't need to be bothered by it. But the injury will force Papelbon to concentrate on his pitching strength and mechanics throughout the winter, and could return much stronger in the spring. That would be a welcome development.

The other interesting thing that Papelbon said was that he was targeting a return to the starting rotation in 2007 rather than the bullpen. This topic has been the subject of interesting debate on talk-radio, chat rooms, and stathead websites. I'll link to a couple because they're probably the best on the topic. First, Nate Silver in Baseball Prospectus argues rather convincingly that an elite-level closer (the sort of year Papelbon had places him easily in this class) is every bit as valuable as a well-above average pitcher. Using the concepts of "replacement level," and "inning leverage" Silver argues that in order to be as valuable as an elite 75-inning closer, Papelbon would have to pitch approximately 200 innings at an ERA of about 3.70. This would make him sort of akin to Curt Schilling or Barry Zito. That's a tough call. Would you rather have a Mariano Rivera/Eric Gagne type lights-out closer or a legitimate #2 starter? The big question is whether Papelbon could convert his incredible success in closing games to a successful role in the rotation. Would he have considerably less success the second or third time through a lineup? Does he have enough pitch variety, stamina, and strength do stretch that out?

Responding to these statements, David Gassko of The Hardball Times takes Silver to task for some sloppy assumptions. He argues that replacement level isn't the best way to figure it. Replacement level means you take Papelbon's performance level and then replace him with a guy you could pick up virtually for free off the waiver wire or the free-agent market. Think Bryan Corey or Rudy Seanez. A reliever that would give you about a 5.00 ERA. Of course Papelbon's much more valuable than that replacement. What Gassko argues is that the Sox, or any other team, wouldn't replace Papelbon with Seanez. They'd replace him with Timlin, or Delcarmen, and everyone else in the bullpen would move up one seat. Timlin is above replacement-level, and so is Delcarmen. The new replacement-level guy would be at the end of the bullpen bench, where he belongs. The difference would be between Papelbon and Timlin, not Papelbon and Seanez. The result of this is that Papelbon wouldn't have to be as good as Schilling or Zito in the rotation, but only as good as Wakefield, Corey Lidle, or Josh Beckett- about a 4.75 ERA, just slightly better than league-average. There seems little doubt that Papelbon has got the poise and stuff to be at least a 4.75 pitcher.

The truth, I think, lies somewhere in between these two articles. I don't think that Papelbon is totally irreplaceable in the bullpen- even as tremendous as he's been. If I had to pick his replacement, I think I'd go with Delcarmen over Hansen (there's not likely to be much available in the trade/free agent market this off-season). Delcarmen's got strikeout stuff, he's got a mid-90's fastball and an excellent curve when it's on. Hansen still needs to miss more bats. I do, however, think that Papelbon would need to be an above-average pitcher in the rotation to justify the move. A #2 or #3 guy with #1 upside, maybe. There is no question that much of the Red Sox success this year was due to their success in close games. That gets laid largely at the feet of Papelbon. The emotional lift at the end of the game that the team gets when he runs out of the bullpen is an important point that is hard to quantify. I'd hope he can provide that same sort of feeling coming out of the dugout every fifth day.