Back for more bull

I would apologize for my recent 3-day absence and hiatus from blogging due to my presence at the wedding of my youngest sister, but I'm pretty sure that everyone understands. Pretty much everyone who has ever read the blog was there in Cincinnati and thus was too busy drinking to worry about reading blogs. Congratulations Ann and Ryan.

I didn't get to watch any of the games this weekend, catching only the scores and the last few minutes of Sunday's radio broadcast. That was a nice way to wrap up the weekend, a good 9-3 win over the Royals, highlighted by another strong starting outing for Julian Tavarez and Big Papi's AL-best 48th homer and 127th RBI. For me, that made it a good weekend, even though they blew two of three (and five of the last six!) to the Royals. That pretty much makes two things official: the Sox season is done (they're now fourth in the wild card) and the AL Central is the best division in baseball. When you've got the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox all battling for the playoffs, Cleveland who is just a solid starter away from returning to last year's scary form, and the Royals who can kill the Sox 85% of the time, you're in a serious division.

After the game, Papi gave the press some extended comments about the MVP race, arguing (correctly) that the Sox late-summer collapse shouldn't doom his MVP chances. He's absolutely right. His timing is also correct, because he correctly gauged that his MVP chances are pretty much doomed. If he couldn't win it last year, when the Sox were much better overall, he won't win it this year. My prediction is that Derek Jeter will win it, with Papi in the top five. Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Johan Santana, Travis Hafner, and Manny Ramirez will all be in the top ten. Does Papi deserve to feel screwed out of another MVP? Well, sort of.

MVP voters are getting better, but there are still enough traditionalists to keep the award away from a designated hitter for a couple more years. Unless Papi singlehandedly kept the Sox in contention all year and they made the playoffs, he wouldn't have gotten it. A larger (somewhat overlooked) point is that Papi's not even the best DH in the league. Travis Hafner is. He produces more runs per game (and overall) than Papi. Papi's got Manny Ramirez for protection (and Manny actually has been a better overall hitter than Papi this year), and Travis Hafner's got nobody of that caliber protecting his spot in the lineup. If you look at Runs Created or RC/9, Manny and Hafner are the best hitters in the league. Neither of them will sniff the MVP this year.

For total contributions (that means dragging your butt on to the field, Papi), I have to acknowledge that this is going to be Jeter's year. He's at the top of the list in Win Shares (ask Bill James to explain this one- I only read the description once and was convinced it was a decent metric, so then I promptly forgot how they calculate it). Jeter's never going to be a true gold-glove shortstop, but his total package has be terrific this year. Yesterday's offensive heroics should help ice his case. I know, he's got A-Rod, Damon, Giambi, Abreu, and Matsui/Sheffield when healthy in the lineup. They're actually all probably more FEARED hitters than Jeter, but he's been, overall, the best player out there this year.

So Papi, this isn't your year either. I'd still vote for you. But then again, there's more than one good reason why I don't get a vote for this.