Just Manny being underappreciated

Yesterday’s discussion of David Ortiz’ chances of winning the MVP got me to thinking. Ortiz has a legitimate case for MVP this year, based on his power numbers and his unreal clutch hitting. It would actually be hard to imagine that a guy with five huge walk-off hits this year who will also lead the league in home runs (with 50+) and RBI (with probably 135+) would NOT win. Well, let’s also remember that Mark McGwire didn’t win when he hit 70 home runs. Sammy Sosa won.

But Ortiz isn’t my point today. My point today was that I mentioned yesterday that Ortiz isn’t even the most productive hitter on his own team. Manny Ramirez is. This is what I’ve been thinking about. If anyone has an argument for getting screwed out of MVPs, it’s probably Manny. It’s funny that we have to frequently remind ourselves what an incredible hitter he his, given his spacey personality and outward ambivalence. This guy, though, could possibly go down as the greatest hitter EVER not to win an MVP. Consider the following facts.

He is one of the top four hitters of his generation, without question. Only Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas have a higher adjusted career OPS+ than Manny (Albert Pujols does as well, but he’s ten years younger than Manny). Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, and Jason Giambi all trail behind Manny on this list. For those of you scratching your heads, adjusted OPS+ means first taking his on-base percentage (times on base/plate appearances) and his slugging percentage (total bases/at bats) and adding them together. This gives you OPS. A number of .800 is decent, .900 is great, and a career 1.000 OPS guy is a Hall of Famer. All these guys are upper .900’s to low 1.000’s. The OPS+ means how your OPS compares to the average player during your time. Further, they also adjust it so the numbers can be compared across eras (Babe Ruth era vs. Mickey Mantle era vs. Jim Rice era vs. Sammy Sosa era). If you’re average, your OPS+ is 100. If you stink, you’re probably around 65-75. If you kick ass, you’re around 140-150. Manny has been at 156 for his career. This puts him right there with Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Joe DiMaggio for his career. That’s really rarified air.

Back to this era. The other five guys who are in Manny’s league for hitting in this generation- Bonds, Pujols, Thomas, Bagwell, Giambi- have all won MVPs. Bonds and Thomas have won multiple awards, and no doubt Pujols will win multiples (possibly getting his second this year). And Manny? He’s never finished higher than third- even in a year he had 160 RBI. Even in a year he hit over 30 HR, 100 RBI AND won the batting title with a .349 average. He’s like a supercharged version of Eddie Murray or Rafael Palmiero (without the steroid suspicion, either).

Want more numbers? If you had to bet on any one player to break Lou Gehrig’s hallowed record of 13 consecutive years with 100+ RBI, I’d recommend putting your money on Manny. He’s just reached his 9th consecutive year, and if he didn’t have to spend all of 1997 batting sixth in the lineup behind guys like Thome, Matt Williams, and Dave Justice, he’d have had more than 88 RBI, and be on his 12th consecutive year. He’s also got 11 years over 30 home runs.

Manny suffers from two things, I think: first, the popular perception that he’s a flake, which hurts his standing with MVP voters, who like drama and intensity. Generally, the only drama Manny creates is localized to the overheated Boston media who get in an uproar every time his hamstring is sore, or when he’s demanding his annual off-season trade. Second, he suffers from being uniformly excellent and therefore a great year from Pudge Rodriguez or Jason Giambi or Vladimir Guerrero is only average for Manny. It’s expected.

Manny’s going to be a first-ballot hall of famer. I hope he goes in wearing a Red Sox cap, though I’d have to say I frequently ask myself “what if the 2003 trade did go through, and we got A-Rod and Magglio Ordonez for Manny and Nomar?” (I may address that in a later blog). I hope that Manny does get his due eventually, because I think he will probably be the greatest hitter never to win the MVP. Well, since they’ve had the MVP, of course.