Still I Look To Find A Reason To Believe

Here's a pitching trendline for you. The data is presented in year-ERA-K/BB format:
2002 - 3.24 - 2.52
2003 - 3.78 - 1.99
2004 - 4.67 - 2.58
2005 - 5.62 - 1.91
2006 - 6.36 - 1.36
...and one final number - $4 million. And no, that last number is not the Publisher's Clearing House prize for rapid decent into suckiness.

The Sox are apparently close to finalizing a one-year deal with former Seattle righty Joel Pineiro. The speculation is that the Sox will try out Pineiro in the bullpen, with an eye on making him a candidate for closer. I've always been in the camp of those who believe that "proven closers" are just good pitchers who happen to pitch last in the game. A good reliever can usually be a good closer. Look at Eddie Guardado, K-Rod, Keith Foulke, even Mariano Rivera. They were all either converted starters or bullpen/setup guys. They moved to the last chair in the bullpen, and were fine.

I'm all for thinking out of the box, as well. If there's no Chad Cordero or Mike Gonzalez (or Keith Foulke or Eric Gagne) immediately available, the front office has to get creative. But I'm a little stumped by this one. Taking a flier (flyer?) on an arm with potential is all well and good, but dishing out $4 million for a guy who has been in freefall for the last couple of seasons is stretching even my homerism. I have two theories on this- let's call this John's attempt to restore his faith in Theo and bring order back to his Red Sox universe.

Theory #1: Pineiro has showed flashes of potential as a reliever. As my new friend Tim Daloisio points out, Piniero has pitched to 295 batters in his career as a reliever, he has had some success holding batters to a .205 batting average and a .610 OPS. Rotoworld agrees that having him focus on one inning at a time may get him back on track. Tim goes on to talk about Pineiro's mechanics, which have been inconsistent (you think?) and declining. It will be up to new pitching coach John Farrell to rebuild them. But by any measure, this is a huge crapshoot. Sure, he could turn it around, find the stuff he had in 2002/2003 and pitch as well out of the 'pen as he has in the past. He could also continue to disappear into the black hole of crappiness that has started to engulf him. $4 million is alot to gamble on that.

Theory #2: Leverage. Or rather, the appearance of leverage. Everybody knows the Sox need a closer. Everybody knows that Foulke, Gagne, Lidge, etc. are not options. Everybody knows the dice are loaded. Everbody rolls with their fingers crossed. Sorry- I shouldn't be mixing music into the middle of the post- song lyrics belong in the title. The point is that the Nationals and the Pirates know that Theo is over a barrel and needs a closer, giving them much more power in negotiations. The Nats were asking for two or three top young arms for Cordero- Hansen and Clay Buchholz and someone else, I believe. The Sox wouldn't give that up. So we needed to do something else. If we can convince the baseball world that we're serious about making Pineiro the closer, our leverage changes- we don't "need" Cordero or Gonzalez quite as desperately. Wink. Wink. Oh, sure, Jim Bowdoin, we'll still talk to you about Cordero. We'll still be interested if the price is a bit lower, but you see, we've got a good closer option. We know we can fix Pineiro's mechanics. He'll be good. Sure, you want Hansen for Cordero? We can do that. But we don't need to, mind you. This is just another option, you know.

I like the possibility that Theory #2 might be correct, but again, $4 million is alot to spend to play that particular gambit. Hey, fingers crossed- maybe Pineiro will surprise us all. Until then, I'll be sitting here, rocking quickly back and forth with my knees pulled up to my chest, hoping that Theo's just being crazy like a fox. We need that fox.