Outskirts of Red Sox Nation

Monday, September 25, 2006

Now it seems more like a Red Sox season

I was wondering when this would happen. Things were just too quiet, despite the Sox falling officially out of the playoffs. The Sox dropped two of three to the Blue Jays, exhibiting poor relief pitching more than anything. Papi hit his 53rd homer, Dustin hit his second. Julian Tavarez pitched another incredible game- a complete game, on the heels of Josh Beckett's eight innings of shutout ball. Will next year be "Tavarez and Beckett and three days of" ...what, wreckage? If nothing else, Julian has bought himself a long look as a back-of-the-rotation starter next spring. He's under contract, and if he can keep this up, would look just fine as a #4 or #5 guy. That rotation could look something like: Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Wakefield, Tavarez. Depending on health and spring training performances, guys like Lester, Gabbard or Snyder could break camp as a long-man or spot starter. It's not terrible, actually. Health is a major thing, but from the looks of it, the bullpen needs more help than the starting rotation.

The bombshell of this weekend was that Manny Ramirez' agent made this year's announcement official- Manny wants out. Again. I was wondering when this was going to happen. I think it had been almost a year since we heard that Manny wanted to be traded- since last October or November, I think. I was trying to find the name of his agent, and googled "Manny Ramirez agent" and "Manny Ramirez trade demand" and got articles dated every single year since Manny joined the Sox for the 2001 season. Because this is a tune that has been played so often, it's hard to know how serious anyone is or how likely a trade is. We've lived through his waiver offering, the vetoed trade (with Nomar) for A-Rod and Magglio Ordonez, the speculation about Miguel Tejada, and the rumors about the blockbuster move to the Angels. My sense, though, is that this off-season will find Manny with a different team.

Manny has only two years left under contract, a fairly managable $38 million. Assuming his knee is actually ok (a pretty fair assumption), his production should not be an issue. He has been as productive and excellent a hitter as he's ever been this year. He's still one of the two or three best overall hitters in the AL. There are several teams who have both deep pockets and the need for serious offensive upgrades. The Angels fit that bill perfectly. Arte Moreno (the Angels' owner) has flat-out stated that he's going to make some noise and spend some money in the offseason. An outfield with Manny, Vlad Guerrero and Juan Rivera would be pretty damn noisy, I'd say. The Angels can offer pitching and high-end prospects in return. The Yankees have deep pockets, but they've got too many outfielders as it is. Still, if the Yanks don't win the World Series and A-Rod doesn't hit a home run in every at-bat, I wouldn't put an A-Rod for Manny challenge trade past these two teams. The Dodgers could use Manny, as could the Orioles, the White Sox, Seattle, the Cardinals, and the Cubs. Actually, pretty much everyone could use Manny, but those teams could both afford him and has legitimate resources to think that they could acquire him and justify the move.

The Sox are in a pretty good position in this situation. So many teams need offense, and the free-agent market isn't great for offense. If they do nothing, they've got no reason to think that Manny's production would drop off any- it really never has in the past when Manny's tried to get out. Maybe he should show up in a vintage Max Klinger dress. The Sox will have to replace his offense somehow, which is why a Tejada or A-Rod trade would make some sense.

My own strategy would be this- trade Manny to the Angels for Ervin Santana and two top-level prospects (maybe one if they take Manny's whole salary). Take the money you save on Manny's contract and get Alfonso Soriano. He's a free agent after this season (I believe). He has very quietly become a huge offense force. He's going to finish this year with 45 homers, 45 steals, and over 40 doubles. He's going to get close to 100 extra-base hits. I know he wants to play second base, but that's not going to happen. He's not a great defense fielder, but in left field at Fenway, the Monster will help him. It's helped Manny look pretty good, actually. It's probably going to take a minimum of five years to get Soriano, and I know the Sox don't like doing that sort of thing. The time may have come to shake things up a bit. Let the offers for Manny come in, and then let's roll the dice.

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