Outskirts of Red Sox Nation

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

The Fenway Forties

Within the last couple of days, the Red Sox announced the re-signing of Mike Timlin for next year ($2.8 million) and the picking up of the $4 million option on Tim Wakefield. Both of these pitchers will be over 40 for next year, and if the Red Sox are to have any sort of success next year, these guys have both got to pitch like they did in 2004 and 2005. They both had injury problems in 2006 which hampered their effectiveness. The front office, however, is clearly betting that they'll both return to form next year.

I have already made a statement about Timlin, which is that he should be solid for at least the beginning of next season, and by mid-season they really ought to have a replacement/contingency plan in place. As for Wakefield, I think that this is less of a crazy gamble. First off, $4 million isn't terrible for a back-of-the-rotation guy. Wakefield's age is not terribly significant, because as a knuckleballer, wear and tear on his arm isn't really a concern. His injury last year was a rib thing, not an arm or shoulder thing. And there's a pretty well documented history of knucklers pitching effectively into their mid and even late 40's. Finally, it's good just to have Wake around. He's a classy guy, a reliable character guy, and in normal circumstances gives you solidly average quality and above-average innings. That sort of certainty in your rotation is well worth the money.

The question now becomes who is going to catch Wakefield. It ain't gonna be Mirabelli. It ain't gonna be Varitek. It sure as heck-fire ain't gonna be Josh Bard. I hear lots of guys over at Sons of Sam Horn clamoring for Rod Barajas. That would be a really nice guy to have backing up Varitek. I don't know if the Sox can get that done, especially if he sees himself as an everyday starter. There is word that the Sox sent minor-league catcher George Kottaras to an instructional league to work on defense. This is the mid-level prospect that we picked up from the Padres in the David Wells trade. I think I favor that sort of move- having a young guy learn the ropes and get worked into the rotation. Catching a knuckleballer in front of a Fenway crowd is about a much a trial by fire as you can envision, and the Sox should know in relatively short order what this kid is made of. Let's give him a shot, at least a shot at winning the job in spring training.

In other news, a couple of other above-average hitters hit the free agent market yesterday. Carlos Lee and Aramis Ramirez are now both offically available. I was looking at their numbers today. Aramis Ramirez has had pretty impressive numbers over the last three seasons in Chicago, but I think that there are many teams hungrier at third base than the Red Sox, and he's not going to be worth the money. He's pretty much at his offensive peak, and that peak is not the kind of production that you mortgage the future for. The same is going to apply to Carlos Lee. His peak wasn't even as high as Ramirez', but he had some high-profile production in the last couple of years. He's a poor man's Magglio Ordonez, and I would say over a full season, Wily Mo Pena would easily out-produce Lee. He'd be useful for the right price- maybe a 2-year deal for $7 or $8 million per, but he's going to get far more than that. Someone will go four or five years for Lee. Again, the Sox will have to pass. I'm still holding my breath for Alfonso Soriano, but I just heard he's looking for a Carlos Beltran-type deal. That means something like 7 years, $100 million. I don't think that he'll get quite that, but he might get 6 years, $75 million from someone. That would probably be too rich for our blood- or at least too long for our liking. If the Sox can emerge with a higher value, four-year deal, like 4/48, I'd bite on that. Keep dreaming, son. Keep dreaming.

Monday, October 30, 2006

The Season Begins

The hot stove season officially began this weekend after the Adam Wainright of the Cardinals struck out some guy from Detroit to end a game. It must have meant something, because everyone starting jumping up and down like they were really happy. Whatever it was, it sorta looked like fun. The game wasn’t that great, so maybe it was someone’s birthday or something.

Actually, congratulations go out to the World Champion Cardinals, winners for the first time since 1982 (when they edged Harvey’s Wallbangers). I’m happy for the St .Louis fans, who seem to have all of the appreciation for baseball with none of the anger. Maybe it’s the influence of that light beer they brew around there somewhere. Maybe with the introduction of Sam Adams Light, Red Sox fans will start mellowing as well. A special congrats to David Eckstein, my second favorite ballplayer named David. He’s roughly the size of one of Big Papi’s legs, but he was huge in the Series for the Cardinals, and has shown himself to be a big winner. It’s time to hope that Dustin Pedroia can turn into the same sort of player.

But now the real season begins- a hot stove season that promises to be very interesting for Red Sox fans. Over the weekend, Trot Nixon, Gabe Kapler, and Doug Mirabelli all filed for free agency. As popular as those guys are, as much dirt dog ethic as they showed (Doug with his bare handed batting style…) they’ll probably never put on a Sox uniform again. Trot will be too expensive and too injury prone- he’ll be good somewhere like Kansas City or Colorado or San Francisco. Kapler will get squeezed because we’ll have Eric Hinske as utility corner guy next year. Doug, well, Doug would need to hit his weight to justify his continued presence on the Sox bench. I don’t think he’s got the bat speed anymore.

A number of other (relatively) high profile players filed for free agency as well. Jason Schmidt and Barry Bonds of the Giants, Alfonso Soriano of the Nationals, and Roger Clemens of the Astros all filed. There’s no telling if Roger will be back or not, but it may be worth Theo and the boys making one final run to convince the Rocket he can go out on top with his old team. Soriano is worth a run as well. Schmidt is probably the only legit player from that Giants team, but I’m just not sure how well he does on an American League team. I think he lands with the Cubs or another NL team looking to spend their way out of the cellar. As for Bonds, well, that’s a tough one. Ideally, he’ll become a DH on an American League club. He’ll probably sign a two-year deal, for between $10-12 million per year. Texas, maybe. Oakland already has Frank Thomas. Maybe Seattle. Someone close enough to contention, but with a fan base that won’t taunt him too much. I think it’s still 50/50 he stays in San Fran, where he’s still adored, but he’s becoming a huge liability in the outfield.

It’s going to be an interesting season. And a blessedly short one. Less than 110 days before pitchers and catchers report.

Friday, October 27, 2006

He Coulda Been a Dirt Dog

Congratulations to the (soon to be) World Champion St. Louis Cardinals, and let the David Eckstein worship begin. Last night's Game 4 actually provided the first bit of excitement, drama, and compelling baseball that the postseason has seen. That may be going a bit too far, but let's put it this way. If Chris Farley were sitting on the set of his fake talk show (and also if he were still alive- stay with me here) and was interviewing Joe Buck or Tim McCarver or Albert Pujols, he'd be all nervous, saying something like..."remember that time in the 2006 World Series...when that thing happened...that was awesome!"

He wouldn't say that. Mostly because he's dead. But also because not much awesome happened during the Series until the eighth inning of Game 4. With the game tied, 4-4 and a guy on second, David Eckstein hit a ball into medium-depth left field. Because he's David flippin Eckstein, 5-7, 165 pound shortstop (make that SHORTstop), Craig Monroe was shading him a bit in, expecting a texas leaguer. He misjudged this little fella's pop. Running flat out and leaping, Monroe just missed catching the ball, and the go-ahead run scored (or maybe you might have seen the highlights). Sure, the Tigers played lousy defense in general last night, but that one play- that one hit- turned this series from a possible 2-2 tie to a rather definitive 3-1 Cardinals advantage.

David Eckstein, you might recall, was also on the World Champion 2002 Angels. He's the guy Barry Bonds cites as his favorite player. I would say that he's a guy just like you and me, except frankly, I'm bigger than he is. And I don't get to say that very often. Every time he throws to first from his spot at short, it looks like he's going to tear his arm out, and you're always surprised the ball gets there without bouncing five or six times. But he has, as all the papers and websites will be happy to tell you this morning, a heart of a champion. Or the heart of a lion. Or whatever else might defeat a Tiger (and, appropriately enough, a Giant, like he did in 2002).

The kicker for Red Sox fans, of course, is that we drafted him. He was our 19th round pick back in 1997. He came up through our system before Dan Duquette gave up on him, and probably Nomar's presence in Boston made him expendable. The question I have is: can we find some way to blame this on Theo? Come on Red Sox nation- you can come up with something! I have faith in you. Let the negativity f-l-o-w...

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Shades of Gray

I'm going to ask a question, and I want you to think about it a bit before answering. Which is more engaging: watching a World Series between the Tigers and the Cardinals where the Tigers are hitting .185 as a team and the Cardinals are hitting about .196 OR watching the rain delay and ultimately rained-out coverage of Game 4 last night? I'd have to think about that one. At least with the rain delay the announcers have to work harder to come up with interesting things to talk about.

Ah well, we'll try again tonight. Who will the rainout help more? It could be the Tigers. It could be the Cardinals. It is definately not the average baseball fan, who, as a result has to put up with this lousy series for another day before we can start having good arguments about who got screwed out of the MVP or Cy Young.

Meanwhile, I stopped watching Game 3 in the middle somewhere, so I didn't get to find out if anyone hit a home run into left field or left center field. I haven't heard about my free taco, so I'm guessing nobody did. That's an interesting promotion- a free taco for everyone in America for a homer in a certain area. That would have been fascinating to see. I would have liked to see a sociological study of the numbers of adult Americans who took advantage of standing in line for over an hour to get a free 79-cent hard taco versus the numbers of adult Americans who stood in line for maybe five minutes to exercise their right to vote on November 7.

But then again, Joe Leiberman doesn't have the status of being the "official quick service restaurant of Major League Baseball." Does that status actually help Taco Bell? MLB isn't like Jay-Z or the Pussy Cat Dolls. They don't have street cred. If Craig Biggio prefers his fast food "cruncheweezy" does that make thousands of schoolboys rush out to Taco Bell? There's got to be a better way of spending marketing money.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Surprisingly Quiet

It should have been a really big news day in baseball. There's actually a lot going on, a lot to talk about- but most of this stuff is really flying below the radar. I suppose that Halloween and elections and football is monopolizing things, but listen up for a second- it's a big baseball day!

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) was signed by the owners and the players, and extends peace between the parties for another five years. Not only is this one of the longest CBA extensions, but this one happened with almost no fuss, and well before the deadline. Remember the work stoppages of the early 1980's or of 1994? I do too, but just barely now. The last CBA caused some stress, and they waited until (literally) the 11th hour to finalize it. This one was done with nearly a month to go. That's pleasing, but I suppose having everyone swimming in money helps.

The best part of the CBA, as I understand it (and I don't think that there is a full version released to the public yet) is that finally revenue sharing comes with a expenditure requirement. In other words, poor teams that benefit most from revenue sharing are now at least somewhat protected from their stingy, miserly owners. Owners in Minnesota, Florida, Kansas City, Milwaukee, etc. that take a big chunk of shared revenue must now invest a substantial portion of that in their on-field product. No more $15 million dollar payrolls. Though honestly, Minnesota and Florida have been doing pretty well on their tiny payrolls. It'll be good to see playing field a bit more level.

Another recent note is that the Yankees are likely to pick up Gary Sheffield's $13 million option for next year. He won't, however, be likely to displace either Damon, Matsui, or Abreu from the outfield. He also won't likely displace Giambi from the regular DH position. He will be trade bait. I have to give Brian Cashman credit for this one. That's a good move. There are several teams out there who could use a solid-hitting outfielder and who wouldn't mind trading a mid-level pitching prospect and picking up a $13 million salary to do it. Heck, the Red Sox are one of them. The market for Sheffield gives Cashman a couple of things. First, it ensures some return for the loss of Sheffield, even if it is only a AA pitcher or a couple of middling position prospects. Second, it gives him control over who gets Sheffield, and more importantly who doesn't get him. Trading him to the Angels keeps him away from Baltimore or Boston where Sheff can come back to haunt the Yankees 18 or 19 times a year. He won't be in Boston next year, which is fine for me. It saves me the heartache of having to boo someone in a Sox uniform.

There is also word out of Boston that Mike Timlin might be back next year. He'll be 41 and is coming off of two terrible months in the bullpen. His ERA for August and September was up around 6 or 7. He was hurt and tired. I worry a bit that his continued presence on the roster might slow down the rebuilding of the bullpen, but when he's fresh, he's still a solid reliever. In April and May, his ERA was still under 2, and that was coming off the World Baseball Classic. If we can keep him out of that debacle, he might be solid through July, at which time the front office had better have a strong bullpen in place. If he's not, and if they don't, things are gonna go downhill quickly.

Oh yeah, and I guess the World Series is still going on. Chris Carpenter pitched a hell of a game yesterday, and completely without the aid of pine tar. All the same, it's been sort of an underwhelming series. Placido Polanco, Ivan Rodriguez, and Carlos Guillen are something like 0-35 in the series. I was wrong about the Tigers winning in five, but I still think that the Cardinals don't have enough to close this out. Does anyone outside of St. Louis and Detroit care if I'm right or wrong? The TV ratings seem to indicate that they don't. Like I said, below the radar...

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Doctored balls

What was everyone thinking? I'm trying to make sense of this whole Kenny Rogers/Tony LaRussa doctored ball situation, and I think that I don't have quite enough information. I wasn't watching in the first inning of Game 2, and so I'm getting all of this through the skewed filter of news commentary. There are a couple of pertinent questions:

1) Was Kenny Rogers deliberately doctoring the balls with some foreign (illegal) substance, which is to say something other than dirt, rosin, and spit? The answer to this, to my mind, is probably not. For some reason, Kenny Rogers has not only completely reversed his past playoff failures (8.80 ERA in his pre-2006 postseason), but has, at the venerable age of 41, discovered his inner Christy Matthewson and has been dazzling batters from Oakland to the Bronx. Does a little pine tar or vaseline do that for you? No. Might Kenny be looking for an artificial edge at this point in his career? Of course, I wouldn't doubt that. He does have a faster fastball this year than he's had in recent memory- I'm not making assumptions, but a scuffed ball doesn't travel 3-4 mph faster. If Kenny's cheating, it isn't on the ball.

2) Did Tony LaRussa suspect cheating? I think he probably did. He brought the issue to the attention of the officials, didn't he? He just wanted Kenny's hand cleaned off. That's the confusing thing. And it leads to the next question...

3) Why did Tony not make an official challenge, and possibly get unhittable Kenny Rogers tossed from the game and maybe from the World Series? There are two legitimate reasons for this. First, he did it "for the good of the game." He didn't think Kenny's cheating was significant or substantial, and he didn't want the Series marred by something that big. This would have been twenty times bigger than Roger Clemens throwing the barrel of the bat at Mike Piazza. This would have been one of the biggest World Series scandals since 1919. Good ol' Tony's just letting the boys play, protecting the integrity of the pure game. I don't buy that.

The second explanation is that Tony's not about to cast asparagus at the other team when he knows damn well that these same sorts of gamesmanship issues could easily (and perhaps more effectively) hurt his own team. He knows that he might get Rogers thrown out of a game, but he doesn't want to risk getting Chris Carpenter and Jeff Suppan tossed as well- especially against a canny guy like Jim Leyland, who has been around the game long enough to know where a couple of bodies are buried.

Ultimately, the way this is going to play out depends on who wins the World Series. Either LaRussa will be celebrated as a master tactician who just wants the game to be played the right way, or he'll be reviled (even in friendly St.Louis) as the guy who refused to give his team its best chance (and perhaps only chance) to steal Game 2 from the Tigers at Detroit.

You all (well, both of you) know my prediction. Tigers in five. LaRussa will be the goat. Will he be fired? Hell no. He took an incredibly mediocre team to the World Series. He's a mad genius, isn't he? If there's one thing he should be thankful for at this point, it is that he doesn't manage a team in the northeast.

Monday, October 23, 2006

Don't mess with the Polish guy

In baseball, there are superstar players. Pujols, Bonds, Rodriguez, Jeter, Ortiz, etc. There are even superstar managers- guys who are considered geniuses- LaRussa, Torre, Cox. But GMs? Well, prior to "Moneyball," there aren't many people who'd be able to identify more than two or three GMs. Maybe Billy Beane, John Schuerholtz, Theo Epstein. Today, however, we want to give some love to Dave Dombrowski, possibly the best GM in baseball, and certainly the least recognized for his genius.

A native of Chicago (hey der!), Dombrowski has been the GM of three teams. He started with the Expos in the late 1980's, when they still had the chance to be competitive. When the Marlins were created, Dave got the job as their first GM. He started work in 1991, and the team started playing in 1993. He put together that team with Jeff Conine, Kevin Brown, Edgar Renteria, Craig Counsell, Gary Sheffield (grr) and the rest of that Marlin team that beat the offensive juggernaut Indians in the 1997 World Series. When the team was sold, he moved on to Detroit.

And here we are. In Detroit. In late October. It's really really cold- Placido Polanco in a balaclava cold. Placido Palanco balaclava. Placido Polanco balaclava. Placido Polanco balaclava. There, I said it. And there's Dave Dombrowski, observing it all. The thing that he, John Schuerholtz, and Billy Beane all have in common (I'd throw Terry Ryan of the Twins in on this also) is that they have all seemed to find that sweet mix of young players, drafted and on their way up, with grizzled veterans who refuse to go quietly. Billy Beane had Frank Thomas this year, and Dave Dombrowski has Kenny Rogers. Quite under the radar, Dombrowski signed Kenny Rogers to a under-market value 2-year deal. All Kenny has done this post-season is pitch 23 consecutive scoreless innings. If he continues this, he has a decent chance of breaking Christy Mathewson's 100-year-old record. Strange things happen- but they do seem to happen to these guys who seem to have a knack for putting the right pieces together, and letting them gel.

The World Series is now tied, 1-1. Rogers took care of business in the second game. In the first game, the pitching looked like a huge rookie mismatch. Justin Verlander, probable AL rookie of the year, with a low, low, low ERA, took the mound against Anthony Reyes, who had a 5.06 ERA in 17 starts (in the NL!). Who has the edge? Well, let me also ad that Verlander was well rested. Who has the edge now? Right. The other guy that no one favored. It's time to stop listening to the experts. I'm still going with the Tigers in five on this one. I think the Cardinals got their win. They'll get no more.

I'm going with the Polish guy.

Friday, October 20, 2006

Finally.

Well, we finally get a World Series. After a pretty good game in what has been one of the least interesting LCS in recent memory, the Tigers finally get to gear up to completely squash the Cardinals. Jeff Suppan pitched extremely well, which again for me just reinforces the differences between AL and NL hitting. Or maybe the difference between pitching at Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park and in anywhere else in the league. And, as predicted, Oliver Perez pitched well. The game came down to a (predictably) improbable homer by Yadier Molina and a high-wire save by Adam Wainright.

Wainright really impressed me. He's a young guy, 25, I think, and pitching in this role for really the first time this year. He did give up a couple of solid hits, but what struck me in that ninth inning was the way he mixed his pitches. The old adage, attributed to Warren Spahn, I believe, is that "hitting is timing. Pitching is disrupting a hitter's timing." The way that Wainright pumped a couple of fastballs (93-95 mph) to Cliff Floyd and and just completely froze him with a wicked curve- that was what pitching is all about. You have to give Dave Duncan credit on that- that is a good way to pick your closer. Two very good pitches, and the knowledge and ability to throw them when you want- that's nice.

All the same, I found myself rooting for the Mets. I didn't really have a horse in that race, except that I find myself disliking the Cardinals. That probably started way back in 1982 when those guys beat my Brewers in the Brew Crew's first (and only) World Series appearance. It also continued into 2004 when they were the (unworthy) adversaries against the Red Sox. Also, it's hard for me to root against a team in a game seven in their own ballpark. It's no fun to watch a team celebrate amid all that silence. At least in St. Louis, when the Sox won, the crowd was generous with their tribute to the Sox. So the fans aren't so bad, I just don't like the team.

So to Detroit we go. All of the conventional wisdom says Detroit will make rather short work of the Cardinals. Of course, this is conventional wisdom from the same people who told you that Detroit had no chance of getting past the Yankees in the first round- so it's grain of salt time. Personally, I just think that Detroit's pitching is both better and rested, their bullpen is incredible, and they have more than enough hitting to pull this improbable season to an epic level. Tigers in five.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

For the...um...diehard fan?

Can't the marketing wizards at Major League Baseball come up with some original ideas for once? Do they have to resort from ripping a page straight out of Gene Simmons' playbook? You know how they say that there are no original ideas- that in the history of the world, in all the people who have ever lived, someone, at sometime had every idea you think is totally original? Well, that's probably true of Gene Simmons. It probably doesn't matter what way you've thought of to make money- Gene Simmons has already had that idea for KISS, and has also probably put it into action.

The thing now is customized caskets. Coffins. Like for when you die. The Red Sox, along with several other MLB teams, announced recently that they will be offering, through the manufacturer Eternal Images, team-themed caskets. Now you no longer have to end your loyalty to the Sox at the grave. They'll happily join you in the grave, at what I am sure are quite reasonable rates. Is that distasteful? Does it cheapen or commercialize what should be an incredibly somber time, a time for spiritual reflection? I'd say no. I think it's quite all right. I think it would help you not only get in the right frame of mind for your ultimate passing, but give those who survive you something slightly whimsical to remember you by.

The Precious Moments-themed caskets, though- those are just sick.

In other news, the Mets forced a game seven in the NLCS last night, getting past the baseball juggernaut that is the 83-78 St. Louis Cardinals. I can't stop thinking about that. 83-78, and they're a game from the flippin' World Series. What could possibly be more ludicrous? Wait for it...yes. That's right. Oliver Perez starting Game Seven for the Mets. 3-13 Oliver Perez. Oliver Perez with an ERA over 6.40 in the NATIONAL LEAGUE! Oliver Perez who was actually really good back in 2004- good enough for me to have him on my 2005 rotisserie team WAY too long. That Oliver Perez. The Mets would probably do better to send Olivier Martinez to the mound- at least the Cardinals can't hit him over the head with a snow globe like Michael Douglas did in "Unfaithful." Rob Neyer is writing today that Perez is probably the worst Game Seven pitcher ever (that's just the headline. Rob Neyer went to the pay-portion of ESPN.com several years ago and I haven't read his work since). He's probably right. And do you know who he's facing? Jeff Suppan. Soup! The guy who was nice enough to atone for screwing up with the Sox down the stretch in 2003 by getting thrown out at third by Big Papi in the 2004 World Series (thanks, Jeff). Actually, the last time Suppan pitched a Game Seven was in 2004. He beat Roger Clemens in the NLCS. He's actually not a bad big game pitcher.

So of course, Perez is going to throw a gem and send the Mets to the Series. Nobody knows nothin'.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Questionable Moves

Later this evening, St. Louis could rather easily become one of the worst teams to make the World Series. These guys finished the year 83-78. That’s five games over .500. That’s worse than the Red Sox. In fact, that’s a worse record than twelve other teams in Major League Baseball. There are only 30 teams in baseball. The Cardinals, this year, were a solidly middle-third of quality baseball teams. The Mets were among the three best teams in baseball. I suppose that it is still possible that the Mets pull this out, though the pitching matchups seem to favor the Cardinals, but if the thoroughly mediocre Cards make the World Series, that’s something that’s amazin’.

The presence of the Cardinals in the World Series would also, somewhat inappropriately, cement Tony LaRussa as a managerial genius. Sure, his team has been able to hang in there through the playoffs (thanks, Albert. Oh, and thank you too, Spicoli…I mean Weaver). But this is a team that almost blew an 8-game division lead with like two weeks left in the season. They finished 83-78. How come Walt Jocketty isn’t facing the same virulent criticism as Theo Epstein, whose team finished with a better record in a much tougher league? Well, of course everyone’s nice in St. Louis, including the press. Well, and of course St. Louis is on the verge of going to the World Series again. But really, should we really be saying that one manager or GM is so much more effective than another at this point? Does the fact that an otherwise crappy pinch-hitter cranks a homer in an NLCS game mean that your completely unremarkable season just goes away? Perhaps it does. Flags fly forever.

Speaking of that, I was about to be all worked up into a froth about the firing of Ken Macha in Oakland. Not only do I not have the energy for it, I don’t know if it’s so stunning. Sure, Oakland finally managed to win a post-season series for the first time since…well, since Tony LaRussa was manager there. But Billy Beane knows that the post-season is a crapshoot, and you can’t always control what happens there. He also knows that managers, by and large, are fungible. There are very few that make an actual difference to the team’s final record. Heck, Ken Macha knew this going in- he was only there because he agreed to stay out of Billy Beane’s way more than Art Howe would. Macha should probably thank Billy Beane. He’s going out on a winning note- making the ALCS with a low-payroll team. He’ll probably get one of the open managerial jobs- if not this year, then next year, and get a nice pay raise. It’s not as if Oakland is the bottomless pit of money that other teams could be. Maybe the Nationals.

And finally, Peter Gammons was reporting that there are only really two teams out there legitimately contending for the services of Daisuke Matsuzaka- the Mariners and the Yankees. He gives the Yankees about a 75% chance of winning the bidding to negotiate with him. The Sox claim (though Theo gave very little indication of this during his recent press conference) that they’ll be in the running. There are two things about this that intrigue me. First, it’s a sealed-bidding process. We don’t know what the Yankees or the Mariners will bid. It’ll probably be over $20 million, but there’s no saying the Sox won’t surprise us (and them) with a good guess about the Yanks bid and outdo them by a couple of bucks. Second, the winner has control over Matsuzaka for six years. He’s not a free agent. He either has to play for the team that wins the bidding or not play at all. This means that the team really has the upper hand in contract negotiations. Sure, it’s easy to say that he’s worth 10-12 million per year (which we really don’t know), but faced with the prospect of sitting out completely, Matsuzaka might be willing to sign for seven or eight million per year, thus making a bit of a gamble on the bidding process more attractive. I’ve got to look deeper into how he projects against major league hitting, but for my money (which isn’t the same as John Henry’s money), I think it’s worth a shot.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Pudge, Texas Ranger

As I was watching the Tigers completely destroy the Oakland A’s in the ALCS (thus confirming for all interested that I have a singular talent for picking the losers), I found myself reminded. A couple of years ago, we watched a scrappy team, largely of unknowns, guided by a crusty, old-school manager, come out of nowhere and dominate on their way to a highly improbably World Series.

Do these Tigers remind anyone else of the 2003 Marlins? They had very solid pitching and just enough hitting to get the job done. Say, who was that pitcher that shut down the Yankees to win the Series? Boy, the Sox could sure use a pitcher of that quality.

The other thing that I noticed was the kid behind the plate. Pudge Rodriguez, the erstwhile Texas Ranger, was on that 2003 Marlins team. And here he is, front and center, leading the 2006 Detroit Tigers. That’s interesting, isn’t it? He had never really been regarded as much of a leader- let alone a decent handler of a pitching staff, but he’s certainly seemed to have cemented his first-ballot hall-of-fame status with his participation on his second World Series team in four years.

That brings up an interesting question that had been bugging me for a while. Assuming the Tigers win (which is not a given just yet, obviously), Pudge will have two series rings with teams other than the one whose cap he’ll probably wear in the Hall of Fame. He’ll probably go in as a Ranger. I wonder how much sense the logo-cap makes anymore in the Hall of Fame. Dave Winfield went in as a Padre, but I would guess most people outside of San Diego think of him as a Yankee. Gary Carter went in as an Expo, but he himself, and many others think of him as a Met. Reggie Jackson went in as a Yankee, despite spending nearly twice as long with the Oakland A’s. Carleton Fisk went in with a Red Sox cap, despite his longer career with the White Sox (I think that was the right decision, of course).

I know the Hall of Fame makes these decisions based on their impact, and for “historical archival” purposes, which is fine. They don’t really consider the player’s preference, which is fine. But why do it at all? Especially now, in the age of mega-free-agency. If Alex Rodriguez gets traded, to, say, the Cubs (good to see you again, Lou!) and spends four or five years there, then maybe his final three years with someone else, whose hat would you put on his head? The Yankees? The Mariners? The Rangers? Who does he represent? In a couple of years, when Roberto Alomar makes the Hall, whose hat will he wear? I guess the Orioles, or maybe the Blue Jays. But it could also pretty easily be the Indians.

I think that the Hall did the right thing with Catfish Hunter. He would be a really hard choice between the Yankees and the A’s- that’s a debate for true sports nerds. So they just left the logo off. Check out his hall-of-fame plaque. It’s got a blank cap. I think they should do this more often, except in cases like Robin Yount, George Brett, and Tony Gwynn. Unless a guy can be only identified with one team, just leave the hat blank and make note of the teams in the text. Or add the logos down at the bottom, all lined up. Otherwise, you’re just, in a minor way, cheating the memory of those fans in the other cities. I’m sure the Blue Jays fans have fond memories of Paul Molitor and the two World Series rings he helped them win. We Brewers fans wouldn’t begrudge them those memories, nor would we freely give up that hat.

Friday, October 13, 2006

Rethinking A-Rod

Just as I forgot about Manny's 10-and-5 contract status when I was spouting off about trading him this offseason, I forgot something about A-Rod when I was spouting off about him. He's got a no-trade clause. He's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to. Although everything in the business of sports is always subject to change, it looks as if A-Rod doesn't want to go. He says he wants to be a Yankee, and to win with the Yankees. I can't say as I blame him, I guess.

All ballplayers have ego, and A-Rod has perhaps made the mistake of baring too much of his soul to the New York media, but he's made no bones about wanting to succeed in New York and to be loved by the city. Maybe that makes him seem weak, but what it doesn't do is make him a failure, nor does it make it likely for him to give up after three years that virtually any player in the game would be thrilled to have. In three years with the Yankees, A-Rod has hit around .295 with 119 homers and 357 RBI. Boy, what a bum. Sure, he didn't hit in the postseason. Guess what? Neither did Sheffield. Neither did Matsui. Of course neither of them has a giant flashing "252" hanging around his neck like some five-tool Flavor Flav. So I guess that he feels like he's still got something to prove. Heck, it took Barry Bonds something like 16 years to prove he wasn't a post-season choker.

So I guess it's probably unrealistic to expect to see A-Rod in a Sox uniform next year. As much as I'd love to see that straight-up challenge trade, A-Rod for Manny, I think that both front offices are too conservative for that. There's no way they'd trade a future hall-of-famer within their division, to their biggest rival, and allow the other hitter to remind you 19 times each year what an idiot you were. I'd still love to see it, though.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

A Grey Day

I was taking the dog out this morning, very early, when I heard the news about Cory Lidle. Apparently, he was flying a two-seater plane along the Hudson River, trying to avoid LaGuardia airspace (above 1100 feet) and took a turn that ended up crashing him into the side of a building. That is a terrible shame, and my sympathies are with Lidle's family, friends, and teammates.

For some reason, a part of me (maybe the part of me that's been hijacked by the 24-hour media pundits) wanted to connect this to other injuries or deaths to athletes. One of the Boston newspapers had a listing of other athletes dying in plane crashes (Thurmon Munson, Roberto Clemente, Payne Stewart, etc.) but this is different for me. To me, it relates more to Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle crash, Jeff Kent's motorcycle-wheelie (I'm sorry, I mean truck-washing) injury, or even Stephen Jackson's recent gunshots at the strip club. I'm not comparing Cory Lidle to Stephen Jackson, not directly, but I just have that wonder about athletes- guys whose major asset is their bodies, their physical health, taking these sorts of chances away from the field of competition.

There is the argument that athletes are different from us, that they crave the rush of competition, that they're adrenaline junkies and when they can't get that on the field (because of the off-season or retirement, etc.) they have to find it somewhere else. That's why Jason Williams was riding his motorcycle over 80 mph in Chicago, nearly ending his life and putting a major kink in his basketball career. Perhaps that's why Cory Lidle was drawn to flying his own planes. I don't know.

My thought, though, is that athletes aren't really that different. They just have the financial means to afford really fast bikes or private airplanes to indulge in the sort of thrill-seeking that the rest of us would like to try if we could swing it. Also, they're high-profile. For every athlete that gets killed in a plane crash or injured in a motorcyle crash, there's probably 5,000 normal folks that have the same thing happen. The difference is that fifteen seconds after we hear about the crash on the news, we forget about it, because we don't know who it was who died. We know Cory Lidle. We know Ben Roethlisberger. So we remember those, and our minds start to put together these pieces into overall athlete behavioral theories and trend stories. It's just not necessarily true, that's all.

All of this speculation, of course, doesn't do anything to bring Cory Lidle back, or to make the tragedy any less painful for his family and friends. All it does, really, is give the rest of us something to think about and talk about so that we're not so afraid.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

The Undiscovered Starter

It looks as if, at least in one area, the Sox and the Yankees are going to be shopping for the same thing this offseason. The category starting pitching, and the secret is to not get stuck in huge albatrosses of contracts. Right now, the Yankees have to decide whether or not to pick up Mike Mussina's $17 million option (or pay $1.5 million in buyout- this is actually not as easy a decision as you might think). They also will be paying Randy Johnson $16 million for 2007, Carl Pavano about $10 million for each of 2007 and 2008, Jaret Wright $7 million for 2007, Kyle Farnsworth about $6 million in each of 2007 and 2008, and Mike Myers about a million next year. None of these guys (with the possible exception of Mussina or a miracle bounceback from Pavano) can justify that money.

The Sox have Schilling up for another year at $13 million, about $9.5 million sunk into Matt Clement, Keith Foulke likely to pick up his $3.75 million player option, $10 million each year for the next three years of Josh Beckett, $4 million for Wakefield if the Sox choose to pick that up, and a little over $3 million for Julian Tavarez.

Clearly, both teams have some opportunity to suffer through lost money, but it does appear that the Sox are better positioned on this. There are a couple of decent pitchers on the free-agent market. Chief among them are Barry Zito (despite his less-than-stellar outing last night against Detroit), Jason Schmidt (beware the NL import!), and Mark Mulder. Mulder is having rotator cuff surgery, but he could be a potential Jon Lieber-type pickup where you buy his rehab time cheap and get a big upside. The big prize this off-season will be Daisuke Matsuzaka, coming over from the Seibu Lions in Japan. The problem with this signing (aside from him being an unknown quantity to MLB hitters) is that the cost just to negotiate with him will be probably north of $10 million. That will go to the Lions. Then, you need to sign the guy- and that will probably be a minimum of 3 years, $30 million. And if the Yankees are hungry for him, it's probably $15 million to negotiate, and 4/40.

So where do you find solid, affordable starters? Well, maybe in your bullpen. Think back a couple of years, Sox fans. We had a pitcher in our bullpen who had struggled as a starter. He got sent to the bullpen, had one very good year there where he saved over 40 games. The next year, he struggled significantly in the same role. Toward the end of that year (2001, I believe), he made a couple of starts and seemed to get his stuff together. The next year, he won 20 games and had a sub-3 ERA. Also, he was an extreme ground-ball pitcher. His name is Derek Lowe. David Gassko of The Hardball Times argues that we may have another one of these guys in our current bullpen. His name is Julian Tavarez. Tavarez is also an extreme ground-ball pitcher who has seemed to put it together as a late-season starter after a rough bullpen year.

Though pitchers are really really hard to project, and the Lowe/Tavarez comparisons fade in strong sunlight, it's an intriguing idea. It is certainly one worth exploring during spring training and into April...

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Generalissimo Francisco Franco is Still Dead

The Yankees just called a press conference to announce that Joe Torre will still be the manager of the Yankees in the 2007 season. Oh. You mean the Joe Torre who was already under contract for the 2007 season? Right. They held a press conference to say that nothing changed. Thanks, guys. Let me guess, Derek Jeter is also going to remain at shortstop for the 2007 season, contrary to reports that he'd instead be playing catcher for the Colorado Rockies.

Actually, they probably did this just it would be clear to the entire media world that I was wrong again. Obviously, Joe Torre wasn't the problem, but that's no reason for me to not predict his imminent demise. I might have to go into George Constanza decision mode and quickly reverse any prediction that I might make. With that in mind, here are my rock-solid predictions for the next round of the MLB playoffs, starting this evening with the Oakland-Detroit series:

-Oakland/Detroit: As impressed as I was with the Detroit pitching against the Yankees and as much momentum as Detroit is carrying with them into Oakland, I think the A's will shut them down. The old expression "momentum carries you as far as your next starting pitcher" is the story here. Barry Zito and the patient bats of the Oakland lineup will set the tone, and the A's will win in 6.

-New York/St.Louis: I think that the Cardinals only looked good in their first series because the Padres were so bad. They had no offense and couldn't respond to the onslaught of Albert Pujols. In a short series, anything can happen. In a longer series, I think that the Cardinals won't have enough finish this one off. Can't this team just go away already? Since it worked so well when I predicted that the mighty offense of the other NY franchise would overcome its questionable pitching, I'll repeat that mistake. The Mets hitters will win the day, and will beat the Cardinals in seven games.

Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets. Just remember to bet against me.

Monday, October 09, 2006

The Ballad of Slappy McBluelips

(I present you the following, with apologies to Lennon/McCartney)

Went one-for-fourteen against De-troit
Made a costly error at third
Last year’s MVP
All my teammates hate me
And all of New York flips me the bird

Christ you know it ain’t easy
You know how hard it can be
The way things are going
They gonna blame this on me...

First of all, a great big “You’re Welcome” to all of the people who took my advice and bet against my predictions. I went 1-3 in series predictions, thus making anyone who bet against me 3-1. I did get the A’s-Twins series right, which I was actually the most confident about, and I think EVERYONE got the Yankees-Tigers series wrong, which makes me feel a little better.

After the first game of that Yankees series, I think everyone in the world had the Yankees going all the way for their first win of the Bush Administration. That’s one positive effect I can point to for the last six years of Dubya, at least- no Yankee titles. But that lineup, despite some suspicions about the pitching, seemed good enough to bust up any comers.

But then Kenny Rogers decided that seven straight losses to the Yankees was enough. He shrugged off the fact that he’d never won in the post-season, almost singlehandedly lost the 1996 World Series (pitching for the Yankees) and had a playoff ERA north of six. His curveball was really nasty- it was one time I was willing to trade off getting to see the ESPN K-Zone graphic in exchange for being subjected to Joe Morgan’s voice. The arc on Uncle Charlie was just sick. They couldn’t hit him. And then Bonderman. Jeremy Bonderman. Or as WCBS radio would put it, Jerry Bonderman. The Yankees were reduced to looking like the Royals before the Red Sox rolled in to town. And thus goes another Yankees season.

For some reason, it makes me feel a little bit better about the Red Sox season. I know, they won ten more games than us, and had a shot at a title. We didn’t. What it did prove is that $200 million is no guarantee of anything. Having a lineup with eight all-stars and no fewer than four probable hall-of-famers on your team doesn’t ice the championship.

So now the Yankees may actually have as many major questions as the Red Sox. What to do with their pitching? They have several big albatross contracts to deal with- Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano. Only Wang is reasonably likely to pitch well next year. Joe Torre is apparently a question mark, though Brian Cashman seemed incredulous to the thought that Joe wouldn’t be back. Alex Rodriguez, with his 1-14 showing that is celebrated and lamented in song, may be facing a completely untenable situation in New York. Anaheim (or Boston) may beckon. Those decisions may be taken out of Cashman’s hands.

We’ve seen what happens when Steinbrenner wants something to happen. It happens. I think he’ll can Torre, hire Sweet Lou Pinella, spin A-Rod off to another team, go hard after Aramis Ramirez (who can become a free agent this year) and sign that kick-ass Japanese pitcher whose name I forget. Daisuke something. The one from the World Baseball Classic. The Yankees will be different. But they’ll be back. Oh, yes, my friends. They’ll be back.

In the meantime, Go Tigers!

Friday, October 06, 2006

Boomer's Last Stand

Here's the quote of the year from erstwhile Sox lefty (and now Padres lefty) David "Boomer" Wells:

"I hope it's not my last start...I'd much rather ride off into the sunset with a smile on my face than with a grin."

Good for you, Boomer. Good for you. Why grin when you can smile? Though we're all pretty sure that he meant "grimace" (which for those of us of a certain McDonald's generation, this creates an interesting visual image of big fat David Wells riding on a horse through the chapparral seated behind the big fat friendly purple blob from McDonaldland commercials. Poor, poor horse) it's always fun to mock athlete malapropisms. My favorite of these, all-time, of course is from Mike Tyson:

"I don't need this [stuff]. I don't know what I'm going to do now. Maybe I'll just fade into Bolivia."

Sorry, that just makes me smile every single time. It never makes me grin.

So, back to the baseball at hand, the Padres and the Dodgers showed themselves fully up to the challenge of proving every one of my predictions wrong last night. The Padres have scored one run in two games against a Cardinals team that only has ONE bat in its lineup. Pujols is unbelievable. Three for four last night with an RBI and a run. That was plenty against a Padres team that is hitting around .150 with runners in scoring position. Boomer didn't really pitch that badly- five innings and two runs allowed. I'd take that.

The (only) bright spot for the Padres is the continued dominance of Cla Merideth. I've heard Theo's reasoning behind letting Merideth get away, but still believe that it wasn't a good decision. After his awful implosion in his major-league debut with the Red Sox last year, he lost so much confidence (and velocity). The Sox knew he was good- that's why they brought him up so quickly. He should have undergone the Roy Halliday treatment. Send him all the way back to rookie ball and let him work his way back with no pressure and under his own terms. It seems to have worked out for Halliday and the Jays. Well, now, Merideth is working just fine for the Padres. His stuff is just nasty. The low and away fastballs make hitters look stupid. He made Pujols look stupid. I wish him continued luck. Could he be the heir apparent to Trevor Hoffman?

As for the Dodgers, they just look overmatched, which they're really not. Nomar's down again, which puts the perfecta on the ex-Sox. Grady was embarrassed by that incredibly stupid thrown-out-at-home double play (keep runnin, boys! keep runnin' hard!), Lowe gave up two big homers after having a really good last two months of the season, and now Nomar's out with a quad strain, I believe. Aren't there any ex-Sox out there we can still root for? Is David Eckstein still playing short for the Cardinals? And no, Johnny Damon is not an option.

And speaking of the Yankees-Detroit series, I have just one thing to say. Joel Zumaya. How in the world could Jim Leyland still be dumping Todd Jones out there to close games? Sure, he finished the Yankees off last night, but a guy can't keep getting away with it forever, junkballing like that. But Zumaya blew 125-mph heat (if you believe ESPN's radar guns) past Jeter, Giambi and A-Rod. That's a closer. If Leyland gets past the first round and continues to stick with Todd Jones at the end of the bullpen, I'm revoking my manager of the year vote.

Oh, right, my manager of the year votes. It's going to be Jim Leyland and Joe Girardi. I'll have to look this up, but Girardi has got to be one of the only managers of the year to get fired before the award is announced. That's a crime. Well, he's going to make the Cubs, Nationals, or Giants happy next year.

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Earn More Sessions By Sleeving

Much of the talk this off-season is obviously going to center around the status of Manny Ramirez. I had previously postulated that Manny stood the best chance of being traded this off-season, given that his contract only has two years left on it, with a relatively affordable $36-38 million. What I hadn't taken into account was that Manny has an agent. And these things are never ever that simple.

Apparently Manny's contract, even after the standard period runs out in 2008, has two team option years. I think it is not unreasonable to expect that any trade of Manny would have to include the other team picking up at least one of those two option years. It's not as if Manny will not have made enough money by that point, but by the time that contract has expired, that's pretty much the end of Manny's major earning potential. He'll kick around for a couple of years after that, doing a one-or-two year stint for a team at substantially reduced payment.

But why would the Red Sox or some other team agree to such a demand? Why would the Sox maybe have to pick up one of the option years and pay some other team $10-15 million to take Manny off our hands? Two words: TEN and FIVE. Manny has been a major-leaguer for more than ten years, and has spent at least the last five with the same team. This means that Manny can veto any potential trade. If the Sox want to trade him, which I believe that they still do, they need to meet all of his criteria, which means the right team and the right contract length. Who might be the right teams? Good question. I'd guess the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Padres, and maybe a couple of others. If I had to bet on a potential winner, I'd bet the Angels. They're going to land either Manny or A-Rod this off-season, depending on who can alienate their teams and fan base more.

One more thought on this- I've come to a conclusion about next year's roster. Manny, Wily Mo, and Big Papi can't co-exist. Not that you can't have three gigantic Dominicans on the same team, but each of them is position-limited. Wily Mo can't play right field, not at Fenway, and neither can Manny. Ortiz is a DH, and occasionally a 1B. Wily Mo will only get enough at-bats to justify his presence on the roster by playing left field. I think he'd actually be ok in front of the monster. We're not getting rid of Ortiz. Coco's going to stay in center, or possibly shift to right field. What's the option? I think it's shipping Manny out.

My vision for the outfield next year is as follows: Wily Mo in left, Coco in center, Alfonso Soriano in right. Make it so.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

I've Forgotten My Mantra

I tried to watch the Yankees-Tigers game last night, and only made it through the third inning, when Damon, Jeter, and Abreu had consecutive hits to score the first two runs of the game. I couldn't stomach it anymore. That lineup is just unreal. Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Giambi, Sheffield, Rodriguez, Cano, Posada, Matsui. Damn. Even with Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina calcifying before our eyes, that's pretty sick.

So I switched over to Annie Hall, just in time to hear my favorite line from one of my favorite movies of all time. That can't have been Jeff Goldblum's movie debut, could it? I'll check IMDB, but that might rank as the best one-line debut ever.

Ok, back to baseball. Here, quickly are my picks for the post-season. As I discovered at a conference yesterday, this could mean big money for all those who read this and immediately bet precisely the opposite of my predictions:

-Yankees/Detroit. Detroit pretty much limped their way into this one. Their last 50 games were almost as bad as the Sox last fifty. They went 19-31, I believe. Their young pitchers have very little left this late in the season. I didn't think they'd hold on as long as they did, but I didn't count on the White Sox pitching staying as bad as it had. At any rate, with the Yankees lineup, there are no opportunities for the Tigers pitching to catch a break or a breather. I'll go with the Yankees in 4.

-Oakland/Twins. I really like the Twins, for their ability to draft and develop seemingly endless solid players. Their lineup is pretty good, not great, except for Mauer and Morneau. The two of them won't be enough, though. Oakland doesn't have Johan Santana, but as we saw, if you can't score more than one run while he's pitching, even he can't win them all. Oakland's overall pitching staff will win this one. Oakland in 3. It's time Billy Beane had some karma break his way.

-Dodgers/Mets. Without Pedro, without El Duque, with maybe 70% of Tom Glavine, I don't think that the Mets can overcome this one. The Dodgers pitching is pretty good, by National League standards, and I think that they'll have enough to shut down even the formidable Reyes-Beltran-Wright-Delgado lineup core. If Derek Lowe's got his good sinker working, this might not even be that much of a series. Dodgers in 5.

-Padres/Cardinals. I know that the Cardinals won last night, and it appears that Albert Pujols may actually be all that St. Louis needs to stay competitive. Chris Carpenter pitched a good game, but the Padres blew too many opportunities in this one. They'll bounce back. Boomer will win tonight, and the Padres will win in 5.

In the second round (I'll not spend too much time on this because I'm going to be so wrong about the first round), I see Oakland upsetting the Yankees 4-2, and the Dodgers beating the Padres in five games. It will be an all-California Series, the second one in the last five years. The Dodgers and Oakland, and I'm going to have to wait to feel this one out. I like both teams quite alot.

Monday, October 02, 2006

Hansack for Rookie of the Year!

Wowie wow. A no-hitter on the last day of the season! A no-hitt...what? It wasn't official? Five innings? Come on. The kid threw a no-hitter. He probably staved off a still-probable journey to baseball oblivion. That saved him from having to go back to fishing for lobsters off the coast of Nicaragua. Come on, throw him a bone. Call it official. At least that way we can claim to have kept as many rookie pitchers that threw no-hitters this year as we gave away. Don't tell me you'd rather have Anibal Sanchez than Devern Hansack right now. There's enough room on this bandwagon for all of us.

So that was that. The 2006 Red Sox season. The front office is already working on the marketing campaigns for the winter. "Red Sox: We know that sucked. We'll be better. Promise." Not only did the Sox finish third in the East, but they finished with, overall the 8th best record in the American League. You can say that's pretty lousy, and I'd agree with you, but let me also point out that it would have been good enough for the 4th best in the National League. And only a last-week flurry by both the Padres and Dodgers kept the Sox from having a better record than everyone in the NL except for the Mets. That means very little, of course, because the awful Cardinals are getting to play in October, and the merely lousy Sox are not. But then again, neither are the decent-yet-disappointing White Sox, the sorta-surging-but-still-mediocre Blue Jays, the not-quite-good-enough Angels, and the deeply-disappointing Indians. It's a fact of life that most teams are going to get disappointed and get to fuel their early fall-drinking with lots of fresh anger at the Yankees. Tomorrow night, I'll join them as the Yankees take on the Tigers, who fell just short of the Central Divsion title.

I know this will brand me as even more of a Theo/front-office sucker, but I think they're taking too much criticism for this season. Dave Heuschel of the Hartford Courant had a big feature article in Sunday's Sports section called "It's Epstein, not Einstein" that detailed all of the supposedly bad decisions Theo made. People forget that Theo tried, even before he left the Sox before returning to the Sox last fall, that this was going to be a time of transition that required patience. He knew that lots of things could and probably would go wrong before they started to go right again. The worst thing for him that happened this season (well probably not the worst ,but follow along) was that the Sox got off to such a good start. This team wasn't as good as it appeared in the first half. In the second half, they probably were close to being as bad as they appeared, but that was a combination of the plexiglass principle and a huge rash of injuries. Like the Sox, Theo himself is also probably not as genius and visionary as he seemed his first couple of years. Fortunately, bringing Keith Foulke and Curt Schilling in worked that first year. Trading Nomar panned out. It could just as easily not have worked- and Nomar is now providing great offense and gold-glove defense (at first base) for the Dodgers. He'll be in the post season, along with Derek Lowe, Grady Little, David Wells, Cla Merideth, Josh Bard, Dave Roberts, Johnny Damon, and sort of Pedro Martinez. Go Ex-Sox! I think I've got the Los Angeles Sox over the San Diego Sox in the NL.

I've lost my train of thought here. I think I was trying to talk about how Theo isn't as terrible a decision-maker as we think, but rather that our expectations were so high after 2003 and 2004 that any reduction from that level would be a collapse, rather than a sorta-messy retooling. So retool we will, with the heat of an angry and disappointed Red Sox Nation breathing down the neck of the front office. I know I've said this before, but I expect this offseason to be a good one. We're going to see some things that will give us plenty of hot-stove fodder.

And even if we don't, I'll probably still find some things to blather on about.