Outskirts of Red Sox Nation

Friday, December 29, 2006

More Needles, Fewer Pins

The steriod issues in baseball are going to get interesting again, perhaps within a few weeks. A federal appeals court ruled that federal prosecutors (the BALCO investigators) could have access to the list of names of those MLB players who tested positive for steroids in 2003. You'll recall that under the testing agreement, those names were to be kept secret, but if enough of them were positive (I believe at least 5%), then the league would proceed with the full-blown testing-and-penalty regime.

Using the baseline 5% number, there could be 90-100 players on that list that is only a leak away from becoming public. If we were shocked by Jason Grimsley, Jason Giambi, Barry Bonds, and...um...Guillermo Mota, just imagine what we'll think when 2-5 players from EVERY TEAM show up on this list. It would be the epitome of homer-ism to believe that the Red Sox (at least their 2003 team) will emerge from this budding scandal unscathed. Of course everyone is innocent until proven guilty, but knowing that those names are out there casts into question everyone on that team- or heck, everyone in the league in 2003. Just take a look at the Sox roster from 2003. Sure, we could be talking about someone like Jeremy Giambi, Lou Collier, or Lou Merloni, but there are bigger names there, too- Nomar, Todd Walker, Manny, Ortiz, Kevin Millar, Johnny Damon- a leak of this type could severely damage a career. Jason Giambi has done a surprising job of retaining his public image and remaining productive, but I don't see Boston being quite as forgiving.

I'm very curious to see how this one is going to play out. There's some schadenfreude involved, I'm sure. Who would you most like to see show up on that list? I could name about 15 Yankees, but who among the Sox? Ramiro Mendoza? Casey Fossum (tee hee)? Shea Hillenbrand? I have a tough time wishing this on any player. Obviously they bring it on themselves, but it's still tough. Maybe the holiday season has made me soft.

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Zito the Giant

Ok, no sooner had I posted the bit about the wisdom of Barry Zito joining the Yankees then he goes ahead and signs a 7-year, $126 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. Good for him. I suppose that trading Randy Johnson and NOT getting Barry Zito is even better for the Yankees- from the Red Sox perspective, of course.

As for the Giants- how does Brian Sabean keep his job? They certainly needed a front-line pitcher after losing Jason Schmidt to the Dodgers, and Zito's numbers should be a little better in the NL (especially against the NL West), but how do you justify spending that money on that pitcher? It wasn't too terribly long ago that ol' Sabes had pitchers in his organization named Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. He traded them both, PLUS Joe Nathan to the Twins for...wait for it...A.J. Pierzynski. I know the Sox are looking foolish right now for getting rid of Hanley Ramirez, but at least we've got Josh Beckett locked up for a few years. A.J. is with the White Sox.

At any rate, I hope Barry's happy across the Bay Bridge. That's one fewer slightly-above average pitcher the Sox won't have to face twice a year.

Barry vs. The Unit

As all remains relatively quiet in Red Sox Nation, there is a bit of time to take a look at what the Yankees are up to. Rumors are flying around wildly, centering mostly on Randy Johnson. He's got a no-trade clause, but has apparently expressed willingness to be traded to a west-coast team, presumably the Diamondbacks, the Padres, the Dodgers, or the Mariners (in that order). The Padres probably have the most to offer for him.

To cover the hole in their rotation, and in an effort to get younger and more reliable, the Yankees are now also apparently trying to get in on the Barry Zito sweepstakes. The Mets are still in, and the Rangers have given Barry some sort of deadline for their bid. Nobody likes an ultimatum, even more than nobody likes pitching for the Rangers, so I'd guess that Barry will look at the Mets and the Yankees, with maybe the Giants as a darkhorse. The big question is: is switching Randy Johnson for Barry Zito a good idea?

The answer is yes- if you're the Red Sox.

The upside of signing Barry Zito is that he's younger and healthier. At the end of a six-year deal, he'll be in his mid-30's, and Randy Johnson will be like 50. Also, Randy's got back problems, knee problems, attitude problems, and facial hair problems. Barry's never been on the DL. It achieves the goal of getting the Yankees younger. But does it make them better? I don't believe that it does- not for next year, anyway.

Look at the projections. All of the projection systems I can find seem to believe that Randy Johnson's 2006 was messed up. He did end up with an ERA of 5.00, but that seems to be more bad luck than crappy pitching. His BABIP (batting average on balls-in-play) when runners were on base was .369. When the bases were clear, he held batters to a .206/.271/.341 line. That's good pitching. ZIPS has Randy Johnson v.2007 at an ERA of 3.71. PECOTA has him at 3.52. In each case, he's projected to be the Yankees' BEST starter.

Compare that with Zito. I can't find the PECOTA projection for him, but ZIPS has him at 4.56, which is a tribute to the negative trends in his strikeout rates and his walk rates. Sure, he's healthy and still has a good curveball, but if he's already declining in his effectiveness, why do you want that contract? So if the Yankees want to trade one of the best pitchers of the last decade, someone ripe for a big rebound year for a multi-year deal with a soft-tossing lefty with questionable trendlines, I'm all for it. Welcome to New York, Barry. Happy Trails, Unit.

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Rich, Talented, and Unemployed

As we approach the New Year and continue to take stock of a very eventful off-season, a couple of realities sink in: (1) The Sox still have no closer; (2) Mark Loretta and Trot Nixon are still unemployed; and (3) Technically, so is J.D. Drew.
Actually, the list of former Red Sox second basemen who are unemployed is pretty long, and includes Mark Bellhorn, Pokey Reese, Rey Sanchez, Damian Jackson, and Jose Offerman. I can't believe nobody can find a job for Jose. For pete's sake, the Angels just threw $6.5 million at Shea Hillenbrand. No love for the Offerman?

It's become a weird market for secondary players. After a couple of weeks of speculating that Loretta might end up at first base for the Yankees, it's been quiet. Quality players like Trot and Aubrey Huff continue to wait for the phone to ring. Other guys like Sammy Sosa, Juan Gonzalez, Bernie Williams, B.J. Surhoff, Shannon Stewart, Raul Mondesi, Cliff Floyd, Carl Everett, and Steve Finley are hoping for one more shot at a regular gig.

And how concerned should we be about J.D. Drew? I can't imagine that his health issues are as serious as all that- he was pretty productive last year, and we didn't see a major dropoff in August or September. The Sox were confident enough to offer a big contract. This has got to be an issue of them getting exactly the right out-clause in the contract should he totally fall apart in 2007 or 2008, and also perhaps to let the rapid-fire news cycle forget about him for a little while. The deal will be finalized early on in the new year, hopefully to slightly diminished expectations. I think that Drew still has a decent shot to pleasantly surprise the Fenway Faithful.

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Fifty Million Runelvys Fans

Why is nobody covering this story? It's been four days since the signing was announced, and I'm just now seeing mention of this? The Sox signed Runelvys Hernandez! The Sox signed Runelvys Hernandez! Not only that- they managed to convince him that the whole "secret weapon" tactic, hiding him on Pawtucket's roster, was the best way to psyche out the competition. They did it at Christmastime, so nobody was really paying attention. No one believed that a 300-pound castoff from the Kansas City Royals with a lifetime 5.38 ERA would tip the balance of the American League East, but that's just what might be happening. Well, maybe tipping the balance is a poor choice of words. But look at the facts- as soon as the Sox signed Hernandez (giving them at least 9 starters in Pawtucket, by my count), the Yankees snap into action. They realize that now their rotation has to be that much better. So if you're Brian Cashman, what's your counter move to the Sox signing of Runelvys Hernandez (I love that name)? Exactly. You offer Randy Johnson up for trade- perhaps back to the Diamondbacks.

Whew. I'm exhausted. I'm sure it's got nothing to do with the four beers and three pieces of apple pie I had yesterday afternoon. It's got everything to do with the devastating signing of Runelvys Hernandez and the exciting implications. Could somebody please let me know when his plane is arriving in Providence, so I can go greet it like those nutballs all did with Matsuzaka? How do you spell "konichiwa" in Spanish?

Ok- so just reviewing, Boston is looking at potential starters of:
Schilling
Beckett
Matsuzaka
Papelbon
Wakefield
with backup/AAA options including Tavarez, Lester, Hansack, Gabbard, Pauley, Snyder, Zink! (his name really ought to be punctuated), Alvarez, and now Hernandez. Before you make a comment about how ludicrous that is to be discussing our 14th and 15th starting pitcher option, think back a moment to last summer. This isn't such a stupid exercise. Depth is power.

Down the interstate a bit, the Yankees are probably looking at:
Mussina
Wang
Johnson (?)
Pettitte
Pavano (?)
with Kei Igawa and Philip Hughes (he scare me) waiting in the wings.

Right now, with health being equal, I really like our rotation better. Both Mussina and Pettitte were decent last year, but they're another year older, and Pettitte is returning from his vacation in the NL. Pavano was not wretched in his 17 appearances back in 2005, but I'm not worried about him. What I'm saying is, he's no Runelvys Hernandez.

Friday, December 22, 2006

Merry Plagiarism To All!

Since this is probably my last entry until after Christmas (unless we have a miracle healing of J.D. Drew's shoulder on Christmas Eve), I thought I would just jump on the easy bandwagon of coming up with holiday gifts for our favorite team. Ian Browne already did this, Gordon Edes already did this, even the guys over at the Fire Brand site did this, but hell, I can do it better, can't I? Well, maybe not better, but later. I can definitely do it later. So here is what I would put under the metaphysical pagan tree for the Boston Red Sox:

-Terry Francona: A copy of the Serenity Prayer. The guy's had a rough year, so much so that he was spittin' blood, pissin' blood, bleedin' down there in the dugout by August. He needs to manage what he's got, and stop suffering so much about what could have been or should have been.

-Theo Epstein: Socks. He's Jewish, right? That's a traditional Hanukkah gift, to my understanding. Plus, this will help ensure that he can fight off any cold feet and continue proceeding boldly into future negotiations, despite the media second-guessing.

-Manny Ramirez: A one-way ticket to Boston. Theo needs to call him up and tell him that he's been traded to Boston. That should make him happy- he wanted a trade, and it would bring a happy, productive bat to left field at Fenway. Let's hope that he doesn't actually bring that bat when he runs out to left field.

-David Ortiz: A big foam cheesehead. How can you not love a guy who does everything he does for the Sox, and then spends his off-season in Green Bay, Wisconsin? In the words of Bill Haverchuck, "how are we not supposed to be in love?" This would be my way, as a native Wisconsinite, of officially welcoming him into the fraternity of upper-midwesterners.

-Curt Schilling: 18-8, 3.55, 200 IP, 185 K, 20 BB
-Josh Beckett: 20-12, 3.87, 210 IP, 178 K, 80 BB
-Daisuke Matsuzaka: 16-9, 3.96, 185 IP, 155K, 80 BB
-Jonathan Papelbon: 14-8, 3.45, 165 IP, 158K, 45 BB
-Tim Wakefield: 18-12, 4.10, 220 IP, 175 K, 90 BB

-J.D. Drew: A healthy shoulder, and a compendium of suggestions on "How to be a Successful, Carefree, Flake in the Boston Media Market" authored by Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, and Bill Lee. Oh, and 30 dingers.

-Dustin Pedroia: .280/.375/.400
-Kevin Youkilis: .295/.400/.450
-Mike Lowell: .270/.355/.450
-Julio Lugo: .280/.360/.430, 35 SB
-Coco Crisp: .305/.375/.400, 20 SB

-Jon Lester: 12 starts in Pawtucket, and a triumphant return to Fenway in June.

-Mike Timlin and J.C. Romero: For lightning to return to their arms.

-Doug Mirabelli: Some batting gloves, and practice with a zen master on snatching pebbles from an open palm.

-Jason Varitek: Followers. The guy's already got leadership. People just need to listen, pay attention, and do what he does.

-Trot Nixon: .295/.380/.500 (for Colorado or San Francisco)
-Wily Mo Pena: .270/.340/.560 (for us)

Merry Christmas, folks.

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Loose Change

The Sox signed eight guys to minor-league deals yesterday- the Boston Globe's Extra Bases website has the details. There are a couple of names there that are faintly recognizable- Joe McEwing, formerly of the Cardinals and Mets, Kerry Robinson, a former outfielder with the D-Rays, and journeyman catcher Alberto Castillo. None of these guys are likely to join the big-league club at any point, and will probably play out the year in Pawtucket. What interests me more- what I'd really like to know- is how these guys get chosen in the first place. What distinguishes them from the hundreds of other minor-league free agents and journeymen out there? I suppose with something like that, they have these major databases of available players, and they ask the database to give them the top middle infielder, catcher, corner outfielder, etc. and these names get spit out.

From there, it's just a copy and paste or a MS Word mail-merge wizard to make the invitation labels, right? I guess these guys all have agents and there are phone calls involved and all. I'd just be interested in seeing these machinations happen- maybe this is how Jed Hoyer is spending his time these days- it's quite a step backwards from acquiring Josh Beckett last year, isn't it? Ah, well, that was his cup of coffee. Maybe he'll get another shot, like Josh Byrnes.

One other thing that has been going through my mind these days is the future of Dustin Pedroia. I really wish that his first taste of the majors had gone better last fall. I have great confidence in him and know that he is fully capable of success in the majors, but, well, when you're surrounded by the negativity of the Boston media and everyone is clamoring for the Sox to bring back Mark Loretta, you can't help but be a little nervous. I'm trying to keep some context, though. He's only had 89 AB in his career. His line looked like this: .191/.258/.303. That's actually about on par with Doug Mirabelli or Alex Cora, but that's not something we'd expect out of our next-decade 2B. Let me give you a couple of other first-taste-of-the-majors lines:

.204/.241/.204 over his first 17 games? Alex Rodriguez.
.224/.250/.320 over his first 65 games? Alex Rodriguez, again.
.202/.240/.303 over his first 26 games? Miguel Tejada.
.181/.290/.209 over his first 81 games? Jose Offerman.

Ok, so I threw that last one in there because David Eckstein, Derek Jeter, and Nomar Garciaparra all did pretty well in their first few games. My point, however, is that it is very possible to overcome a less-than-stellar first few games and still be a highly productive player. I'm still bullish on the little guy.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

No Red Sox News = No News

I know I'm annoyingly, even obsessively Red Sox-centric in my view of baseball, but I don't think it's exaggerating to say that an large portion of the Hot Stove Season has had the Sox as a major pivot point. If it wasn't happening for the Cubs, it was all about the Red Sox. From Matsuzaka to J.D. Drew to talks about Eric Gagne to the Manny speculation, it's been a very Soxy offseason. So when there's not much going on in Red Sox Nation, there seems to be very little going on in the rest of baseball. Let's take a look at some of the main stories in baseball:

-Barry Zito is either going to pitch for the Rangers for a boatload of money or for the Mets for a slightly smaller boatload of money. The big question on everyone's mind is: who cares? Actually, the big question is how much does Barry value pitching in New York. He doesn't want to pitch for Texas. Let's face it- if there was anyone that Elton John's "Texan Love Song" was written for, it was Barry Zito. Omar Minaya knows this. What's it going to cost Barry? I refer you to my first question.

-Brad Radke announced his retirement after 12 years with the Twins. Brad was a good, servicable pitcher for a good while- lifetime 148-139 with an ERA+ of 113. A control-pitching soft-tosser, he once could have been the poor-man's Greg Maddux, but instead was more like the poverty-stricken man's Maddux, or maybe the poor man's Mike Maddux. No, Radke was better than Mike, but was probably 8 years and 75 wins short of any remote HOF consideration.

-Rod Barajas may be joining the Phillies. (yawning)

-Marcus Giles is about to join his brother with the Padres. (crickets)

-Daryl Strawberry thinks that Derek Jeter should give A-Rod a hug. (raised eyebrow)

-Pete Rose thinks Mark McGwire belongs in the Hall of Fame. (feel even worse for McGwire)

Ian Browne over on his MLB Blog is doing a Christmas list for the Sox, which is a nice idea, and hopefully that won't degenerate into flaming name-calling like most of his comment chains. You know, in the spirit of the season and whatnot. Tim Daloisio at Red Sox Times has resorted to photoshopping sneakers. In short, it's a slow news day. Enjoy the quiet. It can't possibly last long.

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Risks and Costs

Now that Matsuzaka's signed, the Sox have shored up their bullpen a bit, and it appears that Manny's staying, at least for now, we can turn our minds and attentions to the next stressful issues of the offseason. The condition of J.D. Drew's surgically repaired shoulder has apparently thrown a bit of a monkeywrench into the finalizing of his contract. Speculation has been pretty much all over the board, with some saying that this is a minor issue, and a second opinion is all that is needed from a t-crossing, i-dotting stance. Others are claiming that this will affect some of the language of the contract, with the Sox protecting themselves in a contractually similar way to the Tigers when they signed Pudge. Still others are claiming that this will torpedo the contract and J.D. Drew will have to look elsewhere to sign, leaving the Sox to turn back to a platoon of Wily Mo and possibly Trot Nixon. Even wilder (in my estimation) speculation has the Sox somehow stealing Alex Rios from the Blue Jays in the wake of the Vernon Wells signing.

The bottom line, to me, is that the J.D. Drew signing has been revealed as being much riskier than originally anticipated. Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus seemed to anticipate this with his PECOTA projection, showing Drew will miss fairly significant time and come up with only 14 homers. If you're not a pitcher, you really shouldn't produce less than one home run per million dollars you're paid. Oh, sure, he projects at about a .400 OBP with good doubles numbers and probably great defense. But when your medical history has your power trending down to 14 homers, something's amiss. Drew needs to devote himself to a workout regimen from Rocky IV. We gotta get that boy healthy.

Speaking of healthy, in the absence of a clear closer for the Sox, the debate over using Jonathan Papelbon as closer again continues to rage. The Sox seem to be convinced that for some (not fully explained) medical reason, Papelbon will be better served being a starter. I don't know if this has to do with rest between appearances or the increased strain on one's arm that relieving brings. I'm not a medical specialist, but it seems to me that innings are innings. Fewer, highly effective innings for another year or two would seem to be less stressful than more innings. I know that having Papelbon come out night after night after night might not be optimum, but if there is some dedication to using him a bit more strategically and a bit more sparingly (one and two run leads, not three runs, for example), this could still possibly work out. Nate Silver (again) weighs in on this in another Unfiltered segment from the BP website, as do the guys over at the Sox blog on the MVN website.

There's no way I would advocate throwing Papelbon in a situation where he's really likely to be seriously injured. I could even understand if this were strictly an economic thing for him (starters get paid more than relievers), but if he's a high-strain pitcher, who puts a toll on his arm regardless of the inning, AND if he's been shown to be incredibly valuable at the back end of the bullpen, I don't know why you'd be so resolute to make that change. Putting Papelbon at the end of a bullpen with Timlin, Okajima, Donnelly, Romero, Delcarmen, Hansen, and maybe Hansack? That's a really solid group, with a top-five closer. Do we really think pitching 60 innings at the end of games is a much higher risk than pitching 170 at the beginnings?

Monday, December 18, 2006

Tinkering

Shortly after the Sox announced that they had acquired reliever Brendan Donnelly from the Angels, their tinkering with the bullpen continued with the revelation that they had signed J.C. Romero. I am assuming, and sort of hoping, that this is just one of those low-cost "options" that they can play with in Spring Training. The last couple of years have not looked very good for Romero. His WHIP and ERA have both crept up, and he's racking up nearly as many walks as strikeouts. There was some talk of him suffering from the same sort of post-WBC fatigue as Mike Timlin, but that's not a reason to go out of your way to grab the guy. As far as I'm concerned, what this does is lights a fire under Craig Hansen. If he sees that the Sox are willing and able to replace him, and with a guy who sucks nearly as bad as Hansen sucked, well, he might dig a little deeper to find that slider he's been missing.

The Sox are not apparently done with their bullpen work. Though the Yankees appear to have stepped up their own pursuit of Mike Gonzalez, the Sox are not out of that one yet. Furthermore, there are still rumblings about the Nationals' Chad Cordero. Everyone seems to think that makes sense because the Nationals' GM, Jim Bowden is such a huge fan of Wily Mo- having acquired him when he was in Cincinnati. That seems almost too obvious to me- and I'm not sure if Cordero's not worth much more than Pena at this point. I think it would cost the Sox a prospect or two in addition. I'm not saying I wouldn't do it, but I'd think on it a bit.

The Sox have also not yet signed (or shall we say memorialized) the contract with J.D. Drew- the process apparently having been stalled out on some medical basis. Tony Mazzaroti and some others are speculating that something in his physical raised a red flag and they're now working through the process of protecting themselves- perhaps similar to the process the Tigers went through when they signed Pudge Rodriguez. I still think the deal will be done sooner than later. Maybe I'm just all about personal motivation today, but it's my hope that Drew will use this as an opportunity to prove himself as well.

Finally, Troup is gone. With the shifting of the Sox radio broadcast contract from WEEI to WRKO (both owned by Entercom Boston), someone decided that Jerry Trupiano needed to move on. He's being replaced (mostly) by Dave O'Brien, who used to broadcast Florida Marlins games. Sox front office guy Glenn Geffner will also fill in for several games. The press release made virtually no mention of Troup and why the change was made. I've always thought that he and Joe Castiglione were a terrific team, and had found a very nice comfort zone, with their "All Food Team" or "All Geography Team" asides. Plus, I'll really miss the "WAAAAAAY BACK!" on Troup's homer calls. Radio is a very personal, intimate media- especially summer evening games driving in the car and listening alone. It's not an easy thing to let a strange voice into that place.

Friday, December 15, 2006

Donnelly Joins the Pen

See, I leave the office for a couple of hours and all hell breaks loose. The Sox just announced that they acquired Angels reliever Brendan Donnelly in exchange for 27-year old minor-league lefty reliever Phil Seibel. I liked Seibel, he seems like he could still be a very servicable pitcher, maybe with a Casey Fossum-like career, but I like this move. Donnelly is a good reliever with playoff experience and a K/9 rate of exactly 9. He's pitched 295 innings in his career and has struck out 295 guys. He's walked 105, which is a pretty good rate for a power reliever. Can he close? He's got a couple of saves in his career. He's mostly been a setup guy, but good relievers are good relievers. A closer's just a title. If nothing else pans out, he could be the guy.

Hitting Projections

I've got a major Matsuzaka hangover. I've got a headache, blurred vision, I'm sensitive to bright lights or noises, I'm a bit nauseous, and I'm wicked sluggish. After this psychological roller coaster culminating in the triumphant signing (and extremely perplexing press conference) of Matsuzaka, I stumble in to this post with not much to offer. I appreciate you staying with me, though.

My birthday's coming up before too long, and I think I may be asking for some true 21st-century gifts. I had said that I'd never pay for ESPN Insider, and had given up paying for Baseball Prospectus with the emergence of Baseball Analysts, The Hardball Times, and other decent, free sites. I'd never really even considered signing up for Baseball America. I am, however, starting to cave a bit. If I can get someone else to buy me subscriptions to these sites, I not only can feel morally righteous about not paying for them, but I'll get to reap their rewards. BA will give me scouting updates, ESPN-I will give me the best insider blogs, and BP will give me as much smug, sarcastic sabermetrics as I can handle. Also, and perhaps most importantly, it will give me PECOTA.

A recent posting on Sons of Sam Horn provided some projections for the Boston hitters in 2007. They included ZIPS, Bill James/BIS, and Ron Shandler, then taking those against 2006 numbers, and also giving averages. The problem is that for a couple of years now, PECOTA projections for hitters has been much better than other systems. They had a r-value of around .740 this year, which for hitting projections is pretty damn good. For pitching, nobody is really very good. You can project about 50% of pitching, and the rest is a crap shoot. So while these numbers that we're seeing on the SOSH website are interesting, the proven most-accurate numbers are missing (because they're proprietary and you have to pay for them).

A couple of notes from the projections, though:
- Manny is predicted at an average line of .306/.414/.599 with 39 HR and 121 RBI. In other words, if he shows up, he'll be Manny again.
- Ortiz should be a beast again- .295/.401/.618 with 49 HR and 138 RBI. His OBP is a little lower than it would have been if Manny was traded, but that's just fine. He'll get more pitches to hit.
- Nobody is projecting J.D. Drew to get 500 AB, but everyone sees him producing at an .877 OPS when he's in the lineup.
- Varitek and Coco should have rebound years, fueled largely by small bumps in power and substantal bumps in batting average- they were both way off their career averages last season.
- Youk and Lowell are projected at almost exactly their production from last year. That's good for Lowell, but still a bit disappointing from Youk, who would really benefit from a bit more pop.
- Both Lugo and Pedroia are projected for an OPS of .760, with Pedroia hitting a few more doubles and Lugo a couple more homers. I'm really surprised that Pedroia's projected OBP is so low. An OBP of .350 from a rookie middle infielder isn't terrible by any stretch, but I'm convinced he can do better than that.
- I can't see how Wily Mo is going to get nearly 400 AB this year, but I'd be pretty happy with the 20+ homers that would accompany that.

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Nice. Not Naughty. Nice.

$52 million over six years. An outside shot at getting to $60 million. That's what the Sox ended up committing to Daisuke Matsuzaka for his pitching services. Let's ignore the posting fee for a second. That $52 million is about HALF of what Jason Schmidt is getting from the Dodgers, on a per-year basis. That's less than the Sox are paying Josh Beckett. That's just a tiny bit more than the Sox are paying Matt Clement. That, after all the sturm und drang and gnashing of teeth and cursing the name of Scott Boras, is a really good deal for the Sox. After the media had been crucifying Theo and the front office for letting Boras walk all over them and drive the bus on these negotiations, I think that no one is doubting, at this point, that the Sox made out VERY well in this deal. Of course, Matsuzaka's arm could fall off in March, but right now, this is a good thing.

Now let's look at the posting fee for a second. John Henry was on the radio yesterday afternoon, debunking the popular notion that the Sox could immediately make back the $51 million through t-shirt sales, etc. Apparently, MLB itself will see the benefit from that, and the Sox only get 1/30 share of the total baseball merchandise sales. Too bad. I still think that the Sox will find a way to make this work for them- NESN broadcasts in Japan, specialized advertising at Fenway, etc. Over the life of the contract, $51 million's not impossible to recover.

But even if you see that fee as part of the whole deal, that brings Matsuzaka's number up to $103 million over six years. That's a Carlos Lee number. That's probably less than Barry Zito will command within the next week or so (I'm looking at you, Omar Minaya and Tom Hicks). Ask yourself- would you rather have 26-year old Matsuzaka or 28-year old Barry Zito for the next six years? How about if only half the cost counted against the salary luxury tax? Right. Me too.

Oh, and while we're talking about would-you-rathers...here's a really good little piece about J.D. Drew vs. Johnny Damon. For all of you lovers of Johnny who still curse the Sox for throwing huge money at Drew that they denied Damon, take a good look at the numbers. If Drew is healthy (a big if, I know), there's not much question who is more valuable.

In other news, the Sox re-signed Tim Wakefield's security blanket to a one year/$750,000 deal. I like Doug Mirabelli. I like how he catches Wakefield. I like his attitude. I love the fact that he still refuses to put on batting gloves. I like the fact that we're getting a good backup catcher for less than a million. What I don't like is that we're giving about 150 AB to a guy who has NO bat speed left. Maybe you can hope that he'll catch a few mistake pitches and crank 8-10 homers. Maybe you can figure on having him limited to Wakefield's 35 starts and take him out for a pinch hitter after six or seven innings. Maybe you're hoping for enough pop from the rest of your lineup to spackle over that hole. But it's a hole. Make no mistake. It's a hole.

With the signing of Mirabelli and Matsuzaka (the M & M boys?), the last major item on the Sox shopping list is a closer. There are still rumblings about Chad Cordero from the Nationals, Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates, Brian Fuentes from the Rockies, and some others. Coco Crisp and Kevin Youkilis are possible trade bait. Aubrey Huff is considered an option should the Sox trade Youk. This is all still out there. I may have to cave and subscribe to ESPN Insider to find out what else is being talked about. I told myself I'd never do that, but, like the Sox, there comes a time you have to go for it, and if you're in for a penny (or $51,111,111.11), you might as well be in for a pound ($52,000,000).

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Update from Gordon Edes- Boston Globe

The Red Sox contingent in Southern California is flying back to Boston with pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka and his agent, Scott Boras, on board.

"They all took off together," Red Sox owner John Henry said in an e-mail to The Associated Press.

“You can assume that a deal is done or close,” said one source with direct knowledge of the talks.

The Red Sox, which flew to California on Monday to talk face to face, essentially created a deadline of their own when they said that their intention was to return home to Boston this morning on owner John W. Henry's private plane -- with Matsuzaka in tow so that he would have sufficient time to undergo a physical, which general manager Theo Epstein described as a nonnegotiable prerequisite to any deal.

In prior days, agent Scott Boras had said he would not allow Matsuzaka to travel to Boston for a physical unless the sides had reached a preliminary agreement.

The Sox made a posting bid of $51.1 million to Matsuzaka's Japanese team, the Seibu Lions, for the right to negotiate with the pitcher for 30 days, a window that ends tomorrow night.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox called a 3:30 p.m. press conference at Fenway Park to announce the signing of Julio Lugo.

Posted By: gedes | Time: 12:27:54 PM

The above was posted on the Boston Globe "Extra Innings" website. It's the first bit of hopeful news we've heard in a long time. I imagine we'll get some more news about this at the Lugo press conference. Stay tuned.

Too Tense For A Clever Title

The big statement out of the Red Sox camp is: "We're leaving on Wednesday, with or without Matsuzaka." John Henry, Theo, and the rest of the team have made it clear that they're just as big and tough and cold-blooded and logical and cool as Scott Boras is. Congratulations, guys. I'm sure Scott is very very impressed by your display of brinksmanship. Am I the only one that is reminded of that scene in "The Hunt for Red October" where Marko Ramius (Sean Connery) steers his submarine right into the path of the torpedos because he knows they won't be armed yet. Boras is a master of this stuff. Even when other guys try to play the same game, they're still playing by rules that he invented. Theo and John Henry and Larry Lucchino are bright guys. They're not going to do anything totally stupid. But they're not the master. Boras is the master. Sure, he's the devil, too, but he's the master of this stuff. Even though the latest reports are somewhat promising in their proximity (Boras is asking for 6 years/$66 million and the Sox are offering 6 years/$48 million), I'm still thinking this thing is only about 50/50, maybe even a bit less.

There are now also reports out of Houston (some guy's blog, even if he does write for the Houston Chronicle) that the Sox and Roger Clemens have been hot and heavy and are somewhat close to reaching a deal to have the Rocket finish his career in Boston by pitching about four months for the Sox in 2007. Color me unconvinced, but there is some good here, especially if Boras sees that the Sox are prepared to fly right from Southern California to Houston and drop a bag of money in Clemens' lap and solve their pitching problem that way. I'm sure that won't make a major difference to Boras, but if it comes down to the Sox upping their offer to 9 million and Boras dropping his demand to 10 million, the leverage may tilt slightly to the Sox.

And please don't get me started on a rotation that would have Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, Wakefield, AND Clemens. I'm a fan. I'm a really big fan. But I'm not believing that one- not even this close to Christmas.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

101 Damnations

I'd just like to thank everyone who send cards, flowers and congratulations over my 100th post last Friday. That's very kind. I was a little overwhelmed by the big surprise party to celebrate 100 blog posts this weekend, and consequently was in no state to post yesterday. See what all the bacchanalian lifestyle buy you, people? Do you?

Actually, this weekend really held nothing but anxiety for Red Sox fans. Well, some lucky Sox fans got to experience "Christmas at Fenway" and buy some single-game tickets. The daughter of one of my colleagues had the privelege of spending about $2000 on a couple of games' worth. She did get one Yankees game in September, but also had to settle for an evening game in early April. Crikey. I wouldn't feel too badly for her, though- all the offseason buzz will, in my estimation, assure her or a tidy profit should she decide to...um...allow someone else to see the game in her stead.

So today, the news is the same as yesterday, which is the same as the day before. The Sox are still waiting on Scott Boras to blink in the Matsuzaka negotiations. They've taken a delegation out to Newport Beach, CA (Boras HQ) to make this thing happen before the deadline this Thursday. Boras, now starting to refer to Matsuzaka as "Fort Knox" (very classy, Scott) is posturing that his pitcher is worth $100 million, which means around $17 or $18 million over 6 years. The Sox last known offer was around $7 or $8 million per. I'm sure that Matsuzaka chose Boras for a reason, but he's taken over these negotiations in a way that seems somewhat unhelpful to his client. He has forbidden Matsuzaka from sitting in on the negotiations- probably for fear that he knows what the Sox are really offering and demands to accept it.

From what I can guess and what I've read, it seems like Matsuzaka, more than anything, just wants to play ball in the U.S. He doesn't want to return to Japan for another year or two, especially while he's in his prime. One or two years for a pitcher is really huge. I'm not suggesting that the Sox deliberately lowball this thing (especially with only two days to go), but they need to convince Boras that paying market for a non-free-agent and a pitcher who has never played in the majors is simply not reasonable. They need to make him present their offer of $10-12 million per to Matsuzaka and get his reaction. He must be the ultimate judge of what he can accept. I'm sure that Boras, when these negotiations started, said to Matsuzaka that he's got to just trust him completely, but it is starting to seem like Boras is taking advantage of that trust. I know I'm just a hopeless fanboy, but there is no one- except maybe Boras himself, that truly benefits from seeing these negotiations fall apart. Actually, I'd suggest that Boras stands much to lose as well. If the whole bit about saving face and not returning to Japan is true, if the deal falls apart and Matsuzaka goes back to Seibu next year, I'm guessing he enters the bidding process next year with a new agent.

Friday, December 08, 2006

Pieces and Perspective

A couple more pitching questions were answered yesterday, and neither of them were positive answers for the Sox. Keith Foulke, who had been offered salary arbitration by the Sox (after he declined his player option, after the Sox declined their team option), declined arbitration- meaning that either he felt like he could earn more than $7 million per year elsewhere, OR he hated pitching in Boston so much that it was worth giving up at least a couple of million to get the heck away from Johnny from Burger King. Either way, that's not too good for the Sox, who could have used a healthy (and not overly surly) Foulke in the bullpen.

Having been rejected by Keith, the Sox then turned up the heat on their offer to Octavio Dotel, who has been largely effective throughout his career, when healthy. He spurned them as well, accepting a one-year deal worth between $5-7 million from...the Kansas City Royals. This is the second mediocre/promising pitcher the Royals have snagged this winter- the other being Gil Meche, who will be receiving $55 million over five years. Holy cow. Gil Meche. $55 million. Once you get past that insanity, please remember that Meche has been, for his career, slightly WORSE than league average. Scott Boras has GOT to be loving that move. The other thing this points out is that the Royals will actually have a pretty deep pitching staff this year- with Meche, Odalis Perez, Brian Bannister, Luke Hudson, Jorge de la Rosa, my personal favorite Zack Greinke, and Luke Hochevar right around the corner. That's not bad. Of course having even one person in their lineup capable of putting up a .500 SLG would help, too. Mark Teahen? Um...no.

The point that I wanted to make in this market where lots of really unexciting players are getting tremendous money is that several moves the Sox made in-season last year are actually looking pretty good. Last year's offseason wasn't quite as insane as this one, but perhaps anticipating an uptick in the market, the Sox signed three players to extension. Carlos Lee gets 6 years/$100 million? How does 4/$52 for David Ortiz look right now. Consider that he's locked up in 2011 for $12.5 million, and that looks pretty good right now. Gary Matthews, Jr. gets 5/$50 million? How does 3 years/$15.5 million for Coco Crisp look right now? Plus, the team's got an $8 million option for 2010. Jason Schmidt gets 3 years/$47 million? Gil Meche gets 5 years/$55 million? How does 3 years/$30 million for Josh Beckett look right now? How does a 2010 option year at $12 million look right now?

At the time of these signings, the media was saying "what the hell is Theo doing? These guys are under contract already! They haven't proven anything yet! $10 million a year for Beckett? What are you, nuts?" I wish I had the transcripts. Who's crazy now? Well- maybe I should wait until next week to answer that question. There's still the little question of Matsuzaka to address first...

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Closing the Deal

The last major component the Red Sox seem to need in this offseason is a presence at the back end of the bullpen. The Sox need a solid, reliable, even dominant closer. Obviously, things with Daisuke Matsuzaka are still up in the air, and I'll not believe that all possibilities of a Manny trade are extinguished just yet, but this team, as currently constructed, is a pretty solid one all the way into the bullpen.

There are a couple of possibilities I've heard, have thought about, and are being speculated upon. The first is Eric Gagne. Gagne is a free agent, another client of Scott Boras, and one of those high-risk, high-reward projects that Theo seems to like so much in a pitching staff. Looking at moves like Scott Williamson, Chad Fox, Bobby Howry, Wade Miller, Matt Mantei, and David Wells, we see that Theo likes guys with tremendous upside and some history of great pitching effectiveness who have had some relatively recent injury/ineffectiveness issues. Taking these risks into account, Theo gambles with incentive-laden deals or wait-and-see type contracts. Looking at that list I just put together, there are at least as many misses as hits. Only Williamson and Wells really contributed in a significant way.

Gagne could be one of these guys. Since his three year run from 2002-2004 of pitching over 80 innings and saving an average of 50 games a year, he's only pitched 15 innings in the last two years. His shoulder, knees, and arm have all been trouble. If I had to speculate, I would guess (given the beefy physique he sported in his prime and his high-stress delivery) that his body broke down somewhat- whether that was aided by some pharmaceutical side-effects I think is a fair question. Heck, if a beanpole like Guillermo Mota was hitting the juice...well, let's just stop there. If he's relatively healthy (a big IF) then I think I could get behind an incentivized deal- maybe like a $3 million base with two more threes kicking in based on appearances. Even in this market, and even for a Boras client, I don't see Gagne getting anywhere near his 2006 salary ($10 million) guaranteed.

There have been a couple of names floated in relation to Manny trades that are very interesting: Dodgers youngster Jonathan Broxton, who reminds me a lot of Bobby Jenks- real big fella, throws real hard; the Nationals' Chad Cordero, a very good young reliever who would have to be a part of a three-way deal (maybe with the Giants or Rangers?); and J.J. Putz from the Mariners. That's the name that really caught my attention. He was really really good last year. Thirty saves or so, and over 100 strikeouts in under 80 innings. That's throwing smoke. The trouble is, if you look at his stats the two previous years, he's only about half as good- literally. He goes from striking out about 5 batters per 9 innings to 10. Did he just figure it out? Did he tinker with his mechanics and make the leap? Is it just a fluke? Is it chemically-aided? Will he fall back to earth next year? Those and more questions may be academic only, as Manny may not be traded.

The fall-back option could still be internal. Though Keith Foulke has said he's not too interested in rejoining the Sox, they still have a potentially fat arbitration paycheck out there. It's possible (especially with his injury history) that Foulke won't get anywhere close to $7 million that he could get with the Sox. He might hold his nose and try to ignore Johnny from Burger King for one more year and re-prove himself as an elite closer. I'd take that. I like a guy with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove- especially if a big paycheck is dangling out there for him. Finally, the Sox may be in a position of turning back to Papelbon. I know that he probably wants to be a starter (and his agent sure as hell wants that), but if you were asked in late July of last year what young reliever would you choose to build your bullpen around, you'd choose Papelbon, hands down. Over Cordero, over Jenks, over Putz, maybe even over Zumaya. Papelbon's got the goods. He could be the best closer in baseball for a bunch of years. I know you might cramp his style a bit, but that's not a terrible fallback position. If you can convince him he can help the team more from the bullpen, that's not so terrible.

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Offensive Moves

How you feel about the Red Sox these days probably will determine how you read the title of this post. If you read the first word to indicate the upgrades the Sox just made to their lineup's production, you probably like the signings of J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. If you believed that these moves offended the sensibilities of Red Sox fans, well, there you go. I provide cryptic and multifaceted blog entries so that everyone can enjoy them. A bit of gestalt to start your day.

In a flurry of activity, the Sox signed J.D. Drew to the anticipated five year, $70 million deal. Julio Lugo got four years and $36 million. Those are big dollar figures. They are both rather longer than the Sox probably wanted them to be. I would argue, however, that they are both better deals than the market was offering this year. J.D. Drew got fewer years and less money per year than Carlos Lee. Aside from some home run numbers, I don't think that there's much argument that J.D. Drew is a better player, a more productive player than Lee, and he's also younger and likely to be better throughout the length of the contract. Oh, yeah, and he's not a huge albatross defensively. Add to this that we're substantially upgrading right field (sorry Trot, we still love you) and providing an opportunity to spell Coco occasionally in center (as well as giving him less real estate to worry about on normal days), and I think J.D. is a good signing.

There are many in Boston who worry that signing J.D. Drew is setting him up for failure, because there's no way that he could replace Manny's bat, and he's too laid back for the Boston media. Well, if all indications from the Winter Meetings are right, he's NOT going to replace Manny's bat. Manny's bat may be right where it was last fall. Fourth in the order, right behind David Ortiz. If Manny doesn't completely tank it on purpose, the Sox would have a lineup of:

Youkilis
Lugo
Ortiz
Ramirez
Drew
Varitek
Lowell
Crisp
Pedroia

That's a pretty formidable group. You've got speed at the top and bottom of the order, major power in the middle, and on-base skills all throughout. That's the sort of roster construction the Sox had in 2003 and 2004.

The Lugo signing is a bit riskier, in my mind. I'll try not to focus too much on Lugo's very forgettable time in Los Angeles this year, and look more closely at what he'd done in Tampa for the year and a half prior to that. The thing I worry about is that this will turn into another Edgar Renteria. The one benefit is that Lugo has demonstrated he's ok with the American League, and the AL East at that. Ironically, the personal difficulties he's had in the past may actually have toughened him enough to handle this market. Let's call me guardedly optimistic about that.

So what's left for the Sox? Assuming Manny's staying (maybe a 70% chance of that now), the Sox still need relief help, particularly a closer, and a backup catcher. Is that all? Let me think some more about that.

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Pitching Pitching

Reports from the Winter GM Meetings in Orlando are funny things. There are the continued speculations that the four major teams in on the Manny Ramirez discussions (Padres, Dodgers, Mariners, and Rangers) have been given somewhat of an ultimatum by the Red Sox office. They are no longer in exploratory mode. They are only in listening mode, and they're only taking serious offers. The rumors are flying around like crazy, though- so much so that the rumors ARE the story, not the actual possibilities. Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal (one of the better Sox beat writers) actually devoted some extensive column time to a rumor about a potential three-way trade involving the Giants and the Nationals, where Chad Cordero would end up with the Sox- a rumor that he then completely debunked by saying it was categorically denied by several of the involved teams.

In other words, Sean could have written that "there is a rumor flying through the hotel bar that Steinbrenner is ordering Brian Cashman to trade Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Mike Mussina, and Mariano Rivera for Manny Ramirez, but both sides deny this rumor." What the hell have we learned? Is this journalism? I've said this before, but I'm not going to believe any deal is in the works or is going to happen until I hear it from Theo.

The one common thread in much of the rumors, however, is pitching, and reliable bullpen pitching in particular. It does not appear that the Sox would do a deal for Manny unless it involved a solid back of the bullpen guy. Certainly Scott Linebrink, Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez, Scot Shields, or Chad Cordero would fit that mold. Some power bat at first base (Adrian Gonzalez) or solid shortstop (Khalil Greene or Michael Young) would be welcome, as would some top prospects. Ultimately, though, one major thing has to be demonstrated- Manny really does want a trade. He's ten-and-five, remember, and can stay with the Sox if he wants to. He doesn't have to go anywhere. The fact that the Sox are even entertaining offers really must mean that he's made his desire to get out of Boston clear.

In other news (well, reports of news), it sounds as if Jon Lester's lymphoma is in remission. If that's true, that's wonderful news. The sooner Lester can stop focusing on getting healthy and the sooner he can start focus on getting into shape to pitch, the better. If we could even pencil in his name to a potential rotation that includes Matsuzaka, Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, Tavarez, and Clement- the Sox have many reasons to feel good going into 2007.

Monday, December 04, 2006

Best Week Ever

We know that VH-1 has their usual stable of c-list comedians, former pop idols, bit characters on sitcoms, and former veejay Kennedy to comment on various cultural phenomena, whether it be a decade, the most awesomely bad love songs, or a weekly news roundup. In case NESN or Fox Sports New England is looking for an analogous band of fringe-celebrity wiseasses to comment on the Red Sox news, I'd just like to mention that I'm available. There should be plenty o' fodder this week as Theo brings his trusted assistants to the Winter GM meetings. This is where many of the Sox major moves this offseason should happen- or at least have their root. Specifically, there are a couple of things the Sox might do:

-Finalize a deal for J.D. Drew. There is so much smoke around this one, and has been for nearly a month that even with the newly closed-mouthed front office, there's got to be some truth to it. The number we keep hearing (I'll assume it's coming from Boras' camp) is four years, $56 million, with a fifth-year option that would take the total contract to around $70 million. The signing of a higher-profile RF was made even more likely this weekend when the Sox opted to decline offering arbitration to the original Dirt Dog, Trot Nixon. The Sox also declined arbitration offers to Gabe Kapler and Mark Loretta- but did offer one to Keith Foulke. This really just ensures that the Sox get some draft pick compensation when he signs with someone else (the Yankees, maybe??).

-Sign Julio Lugo. It is said that Lugo, who is undoubtedly the best shortstop available (though there are other trade longshots, like the Brewers' Bill Hall, that could be better), is leaning to signing with the Sox. He's apparently looking for 4 years/$36 million- just a million a year short of what Edgar Renteria got two years ago from this group. I don't like that contract, either in length or in salary, but this market has forced some questionable decisions. I'd be much more comfortable with 3/$24, but if the market continues like this for a couple of years, Lugo's contract is probably tradeable after the first or second year anyway. Is Jed Lowrie still projected as a 2B rather than an SS?

-Considering the Manny Ramirez options. I have not heard much talk or speculation of Manny going somewhere other than a west-coast team. The Padres have generated the most talk, with names like Jake Peavy, Scott Linebrink, Adrian Gonzalez (yes please) and Khalil Greene. The Dodgers have also been mentioned, with some top-tier prospects involved (Kemp and Broxton?), as have the Mariners. The Rangers seem to be interested, though, they have little interest in giving the Sox Michael Young in exchange. My personal prediction is that Manny won't get traded this week, but rather that Theo will zero in on the two or three teams who are most interested and play them off of each other for the next two weeks or so. By New Year's Day, Manny will be playing in a different time zone.